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Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/09/20 in Posts

  1. 7 points
    A major change from ECMWF ahead of the winter.
  2. 3 points
  3. 3 points
    Please not lets see endless T+384 strat charts again this year, it's a completely futile exercise. (Not aimed at you mate, there's a few that did it all the way through last winter, and it's completely pointless at that range).
  4. 2 points
    Morning all, I would now like to start a Thread for my next venture - the MID/LATE AUTUMN HORSE RACING COMPETITION. The Competition will encompass the whole of October and November, and we'll be globetrotting around the World to some famous Horse Racing venues. The Competition will begin another "Double Header", from the superb ITV Racing Team. Saturday sees a total of 8 Competition Races from Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. On Sunday, we hope across the English Channel to Longchamp, on the Western edge of Paris. We will see the eagerly awaited clash between the "Queen of the Turf" (ENABLE), and the new "Princess on the Block" (LOVE). In the past 4 Decades or so, I've developed quite a liking for an Irish Filly. My first Wife below, had Irish blood from both sides of her Family. My second Wife above, seen here at her Marriage to some old f--t, on her Mother's side has Irish roots firmly buried in the Bogs of Central Ireland (County Laois) And these 2 very nice Irish Brunettes caught my eye, Years ago: - Andrea Corr of The Corrs, and - Dervla Kirwan of Ballykissangel fame. But on the 7th June another very attractive Irish Filly, made her way on to my Radar, when storming home in the English 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and then she followed up in equally impressive style, in the English Oaks, on July 4th. The aptly named LOVE - Her beauty only matched by her Racecourse, brilliance. But enough of my infatuation with Irish Fillies. In the next few Days, I will Post up the programme for the Competition Races, for this coming Weekend. I'm hoping that al of the Entrants that entered my previous Horse Racing Competition, will enter again. If there are any other Members who would like to Enter, please indicate your wish to do so, by Posting on this Thread. Thank you. In a short while, I will Post up some previous Youtube clips of Prix de L'Arc de Triomphes, from Yesteryear. Regards, Tom.
  5. 2 points
    Thanks for the above post. After checking your very good daily ice graphic on the other NetW Arctic thread, I went to look at Climate Reanalyser to check the outlook It showed a rapid cooling of Siberia and Eastern Russia over the next 10 days, with the (fledgling vortex?) depression now centred over the ESS/Kara, (producing the southerlies into Chukchi that you mentioned), but then gradually moving into Kara over the next 10 days. The effect is to push the ice away from Chukchi in the immediate future (as you suggest) but it will also push it further westward along the Atlantic front, and also southwards into the CAA. Expect these 2 areas to start expanding in the next week. Also for further ahead with the cooling discussed above we can expect the 'warm' southerlies over the Chukchi to turn much colder as the cold bites into Siberia, and is then ejected into the Arctic by the low over Kara.. So maybe short term pain, but long term gain. Been watching Masie over the last couple weeks, and it is very variable this year, with a loss of 80K Km2 one day followed by a gain of 220K KM2 the next. It does however appear to be about a day in front of your ice graphic maps. Which reporting system do you take your daily data from?. Below are a couple of the CR maps that I discussed above showing the progression of the low and the temperature trend.. MIA
  6. 2 points
    Morning! No real change today. Looking for all the world that we will see our first named storm of the season sometime around next weekend. The main models diverge on when the peak intensity of any winds from the low would be, as shown below. Could be any time from Friday to Monday! The prospects into the following week aren't much better, with low pressure hanging around like an unwanted guest. Models showing 2-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days across large areas of the UK. Wet and windy the order of the day. Any improvement not likely until sometime around mid month at the earliest.
  7. 2 points
  8. 2 points
    Beautiful day! Walk up the reservoirs with the kids this morning and just back from a 30 mile jaunt round the Pentlands on my bike. Really busy up there today with folks enjoying the weather and meeting friends and family. Got a bit off the beaten track to get some peace and quiet. Stunning! Love weather like today! One snap as I was too busy enjoying being out to take any more Time for a beer or 3!
  9. 2 points
    Afternoon all! Hope you are all well. Very cold start for many I see! Glorious spell of Autumn weather! Currently sunshine and 7C outside after a freezing start to the day! These pictures below sum up the last few days here - brief heavy showers on Thursday (Mammatus clouds) and sunshine/blue sky galore ever since. Perfect hiking weather - only thing missing for me was snowy peaks! (First settling snowfall usually arrives at the end of October) All the best to you all!
  10. 2 points
    The correlation (though its weak at about +0.4) is actually for the gradient increase (not the nominal) south of 60N and west of somewhere in Russia and its actually from the final week of September through the third week of October. Obviously it had success in 09 and 12 (12 especially had the snow just pour south into China so huge sub-60N totals) but a major flop in 16 where we had stellar snowcover but fell flat. .............. Anyhow with the Ural ridging now prompting a -AO the pattern is actually becoming highly favourable for Siberian snowcover.
  11. 2 points
    Above average ice growth in the last 5 days, primarily around the Beaufort/Chukchi region. Ice is pushing further north along the Kara/Laptev edge though, just 503 km from the N. Pole at its closest point.
  12. 1 point
    If we weren't seeing rapid cooling at this time of year in the Arctic then we'd be in massive trouble! Sea ice should continue to grow on a weekly basis, and by a faster than average rate given that sea ice maxima are declining slower than minima. My ice data is from Bremen University, but even the JAXA/ADS data updated this morning shows a small drop in extent for the 27th. This agrees with the difference map (below) for the 26th to the 27th. Anything more than 2 days of losses at this time of year is truly exceptional, but 1 day loss (like we have now) isn't particularly rare. Using the daily NSIDC extent data since 1979 for the final 5 days of September, 28 out of the 246 days (11%) have seen losses. MASIE doesn't use a consistent methodology (changing their methods based on the available and suitable data, like visual satellite imagery that varies based on cloud cover). This variable method means it's more liable to larger day to day fluctuations, that can represent sensitivity to changes in the processing method as well as actual changes in the ice cover.
  13. 1 point
    14.6c to the 26th 0.9c above the 61 to 90 average 0.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 15.6c to the 16th & 17th Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st
  14. 1 point
    Looking at the latest ECM...shows nothing other than low pressure over or near the country. So that spells rain, rain, rain and some windy spells - welcome to the glum season!
  15. 1 point
    Gap between late and early season frosts is short this year. There was that bad April frost on the 14th and there was ice on my car at the end of August although more of a frost this morning.
  16. 1 point
    Saturday and Monday, 2 x ice scraping days. Was it Oct 97 that we had snow aswell as Oct 2008?
  17. 1 point
    Phew, scraping the ice off the windscreens this morning at 7am. And in September as well in a location not noted for frost this early!
  18. 1 point
    Morning all, I hope you are all ok. My apologies first. I should've read the accompanying piece of text, with the Photo of CORPORAL JONES, properly He is being Trained by Donald McCain, Son of "Ginger" McCain. "Ginger" McCain was famous for Training Grand National Legend, Red Rum. "Rummy" won a record 3 Grand Nationals, and also came 2nd twice. Although only 3 at the moment. "The Corporal" is expected to develop into s Staying Chaser and perhaps one day in the future, will take part in the Grand National himself. As I stated last Night, my Stepson Stephen (SE12) won the Prize for gaining most "Virtual" Returns during Cambridgeshire Week, at Newmarket. Therefore, Stephen "wins" back the "Virtual" share in Corporal Jones that he so kindly "Virtually" donated for gaining most Returns during Cambridgeshire Week. These last 3 Days of the Competition were dedicated to the memory of my first Wife Jackie-Lee, who was also the Mother of my 2 Children, Antony and Hayley (BR7). Tomorrow Morning I will "host" the "Virtual" Prize giving Ceremony for the first 3 places in the - LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN HORSE RACING COMPETITION. Just to recap, "Virtual" Prizes will be giving to the following Entrants, to the "Virtual" cash equivalent of the following: CASSIE/SE12 - £791.06. (100% of her "Virtual" Returns). STEPHENSE12 - £342.23 (50% of his " " ). KIRKCALDY WEATHER - £149.26 (25% of his "Virtual" Returns). I will now sprint across to the other side of The Lounge Forum, to open a new Thread for the following - the MID/LATE AUTUMN HORSE RACING COMPETITION. I hope that all the Entrants that took part in the LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN HORSE RACING COMPETITION, will come and join me, in my new Competition. Regards, Tom.
  19. 1 point
    Now for the Prize giving Ceremony for the JACKIE-LEE MEMORIAL FOR THE WILLIE WUMPKINS TROPHY. ENTRANT THURS. 24th FRI. 25th SAT. 26th CAT. 10 "V"/R TOTAL 1st . StephenSE12 NIL 21.00 99.38 174.25 294.63 Had my 1st Wife Jackie-Lee still been alive, she would've been 62 las Tuesday (22nd), which would have also been our 39ih Wedding Anniversary. Having spoken to our children, Antony and Hayley (BR7), we thought it would be nice to honour her by dedicating the last 3 Days of the Competition, to her memory. I met Jackie-Lee, when she came to work for James Lane Credit Bookmakers in East Dulwich, S.E. London. I had the pleasure of Training her, we started dating in 1979 and the rest is history. Below, is a Photo of Jackie-Lee (with 6 month old Antony), on our Wedding Day, in 1981 She loved Horse Racing and would have appreciated, this Memorial to her Memory. A couple of Weeks ago, my Stepson (STEPHENSE12), wanted to buy me a small share in a Racehorse, for my Birthday, around that time. It was a very generous offer but I had to respectfully, decline it. I no longer can work after my Stroke, and am in receipt of Disability Benefits. If the Horse was to win a Race, my share of the winnings would appear in my Bank Account, and I'm sure that wouldn't be looked upon favourably, by the D.W.P. So Stephen/myself, hit upon the idea of donating the "Virtual" share to the Prize for the Willie Wumpkins Trophy. Below, is a Photo of the Horse in question, CORPORAL JONES: He will be Trained by Somerset based Paul Nicholls, who has Trained 3,000+ Winners, during his Training Career. Stephen got the idea of Horse Ownership from a Colleague of his, who is a Member of the "Owners Group" Syndicate. This Colleague has a share in a Horse called, OVERPRICED MIXER. Overpriced Mixer, was bought out of Jamie Osborne's Stable for 90,000 Guineas, and will now be Trained by shrewd Lambourn Trainer, Nicky Henderson. O.M. has already won a couple of times on the Flat, and had a good chance of following up at Windsor a couple of Weeks ago but the Meeting was abandoned, due to waterlogging. Overpriced Mixer will soon be campaigned over Hurdles by Henderson, who has a very good record with Young Hurdlers, having won the most important Juvenile Hurdle Race of the Jumps Season quite a few times, that being the Triumph Hurdle, at the Cheltenham Festival in March. His most recent Winner being, Pentland Hills in 2019. But those of you who have missed out on winning a share of Corporal Jones, "Don't panic Mr. Mainwaring." You will soon have another chance to be a "Virtual" Prize Winner, in my next Competition, starting later this coming Week, which will be entitled - the MID/LATE AUTUMN HORSE RACING COMPETITION. This version of my Horse Racing Competitions, will have a distinctly International flavour. This gets off to a fascinating start, with the eagerly awaited clash between the "Queen of the Turf" ENABLE and the new Princess "on the block", LOVE. And let's not forget that Johnny Gosden has a very talented 2nd string to his bow, in STRADIVARIUS. Let's hope that the Weather doesn't spoil what should be a great Afternoon of Racing, in the Bois de Bologne at Lomgchamp Racecourse, on the Western edge of Paris. The Weather outlook for the end of the Week is looking very unsettled in the area and the going at Longchamp can become, very soft indeed. I will begin the Thread for the MID/LATE AUTUMN HORSE RACING COMPETITION, Tomorrow Morning. Regards, Tom.
  20. 1 point
    So Mrs Mair Snaw has today told me she wants more outside space. So i have agreed to another house move... she then says a home by the coast would be nice... she has been told to get tae f#*k. And quickly agreed to a move inland and said no more than 200m asl.. oh go on then.
  21. 1 point
  22. 1 point
    minus 1 this morning following by glorious sunny morning before high cloud filtered in from the west.
  23. 1 point
  24. 1 point
    Yes definitely.. if we can't get a cold snowy winter then give me a 13/14 or an 89/90 winter instead.. between now and next march stormy is indeed very seasonal. Hope the rest of the autumn follows suit. An October like 2000 and november like 2009 will do nicely Note I wouldn't want to see people experiencing flooding issues, but I just appreciate this kind of weather
  25. 1 point
    Max of 11C exactly today and min of 0.9C so quite cool overall. In the sun and with a lighter breeze it didn't feel too bad and I had a walk this afternoon in shorts and a t shirt though I had to pretend a bit to my wife that I wasn't really feeling cold. Looks like another coldish one tonight with temp currently 8.4C.
  26. 1 point
  27. 1 point
    Hi East 17 boy.. How's the rest of the old boy band doing... Just kidding mate... Thanks to Karl...aka Jon Snow for giving us a little bit of cheer with those CFS charts. For me it's far to early to make predictions for this coming Winter.. Let's not forget its still over 2 months away! Regardless of what Exeter and Gav are predicting and I have respect for both those mentioned..The EC long term anomalies are painting a poor picture for this winter overall.. The last update was September the 5th..and it was showing alot of the Northern Hemisphere to be milder than average, with perhaps January being the colder of the months... But that's very early days, the next update will be October the 5th,so I will update you further come then. But in the meantime perhaps best to not get to stressed over preceedings this early on... For the record I feel a Winter of mixed fortunes looks a good call, and I personally think we will get more action than the previous one.... (wouldn't take much would it) Then we have to consider the possibility of SSW events which would completely shake things up at short notice. Predicting a mild winter will be correct 80 or 90% of the time, with or without skill... But anyone who comes on here and gives good reason for a cold winter to come, and get it right, deserve full credit... Make no mistake about it..
  28. 1 point
    Ireland really in general. The R.O.I December record low of -14.6C (seemed ridiculously high) from Dec 1961 was broken many times in Dec 2010 with a new record of -17.5C, whilst Northern Ireland had -18.7C. R.O.I. November record low of -11.1C from Nov 1919 was also broken with -11.5C. December 2010 was the coldest month for the nation since January 1881 with the lowest ever "recorded" monthly mean temperature at a station in the country of -1.5C. Then March 2018 brought the only March ice days that Ireland has had in a digital record since 1941 and 3 of them at that too, not just 1. I digress with my slight off topic ramble, I could go on and on. Funny how the previous Northern Ireland Sep record low was set only 2 years ago in September 2018.
  29. 1 point
    No frost here today.. just the same greyness as yesterday. No wind today tho so thats better than yesterday, other than that same s#*t different day.
  30. 1 point
    The video wasn't a forecast, he just went through several long range models, only one of which showed the slightest chance of a cold winter, for what it's worth.
  31. 1 point
  32. 1 point
    According to the reliable cfs, it won’t be a mild winter..well, not all the time anyway!..too be honest, I don’t take any seasonal outlook seriously as the weather is dynamic and doesn’t give a 510 dam about anyone’s predictions!
  33. 1 point
    Third air frost at - 2.7°C. All the begonias are black this morning.
  34. 1 point
    And I'm struggling to come up with a more inane 'method' of seasonal prediction! But, of course the mighty Spurs will win the domestic treble, this season, as the season ends in a year ending in one!
  35. 1 point
    Wet: Wet: Wet: The three main models have gone all Marti Pellow on us at 144hrs
  36. 1 point
    Where are the geese going? The UK weather has a very autumnal feel now and the honking of passing geese overhead, arriving from afar adds to the feeling that summer has gone. Read more here
  37. 1 point
    First proper frost of the season. Cars, grass etc all white and still hanging on in the shade. Stunning morning, not a cloud in the sky.
  38. 1 point
    Lovely sunny morning blue skies and 1C, birds water was frozen. Fed birds, we've got a mob of wee sparrows living in the hedge and they sit on the fence and look into the kitchen until somebody feeds them.
  39. 1 point
    December 2002 was mild overall but January and February 2003 weren't too far from average, at least for the CET. Depended on location what you thought of that winter, London had snow in early January and there was the M11 snow fiasco that stranded many drivers at the end of the month. Only a couple of days or so before it was exceptionally mild, the record maximum temperature for January was equalled. Personally, it was typical of those winters of that period of 1997-98-to 2007-2008, not particularly snowy with only short cold periods
  40. 1 point
    What kind of winter followed the record -5 in October 2002
  41. 1 point
    Grey and more grey today infact I'm sure somebody wrote a book about different grey shades. Im sure I've seen all of them today. The strong wind has slowly died down so that's at least something.
  42. 1 point
    Not particularly warm but an absolutely beautiful day! Looks like more to come tomorrow! Great stuff
  43. 1 point
    Second air frost with min of 0.0°C. Beautiful day walking up Glenholm this afternoon
  44. 1 point
    This occasion always cheers me up! Yes, it's the first widespread snow arriving in the Alps!!!! Good timing as me and friends have this last week put a deposit down on an apartment in the French Alps. (I know what you're thinking, but you've got to stay positive). So a selection of webcams this afternoon, Saturday 26th September 2020: Feldberg, (my favourite little ski resort) German Black Forest 1,450m: Seefeld, (the Rosschute piste) Austria 1,500m: Solden, (looking down from middle station) Austria 2,185m: Saas-Fee, (top station with even a piste basher out!) Switzerland 3,500m: Les Arc, (Arc 1950) France 1,950m: So I'm keeping everything crossed for a vaccine, a snowy winter, and then late ski holidays to cheer us fanatics up! Webcam grabs from: https://www.bergfex.com/schweiz/
  45. 1 point
    Just wanted to see how we are doing for Siberian Snow cover vs 2009 2009 2020 Probably a bit better in 2009 but not by a massive amount. I wonder if low solar activity years always get off to a slow start due to the way the jet stream behaves and how patterns get stuck for long periods of time
  46. 1 point
    I'm sorry that the weather gods aren't smiling on you but at least you had a good breakfast. I'm on my fourth large mug of tea that still hasn't touched the sides of my hangover; the idea of food is not appealing.
  47. 1 point
    Loving these proper autumn charts personally!
  48. 1 point
    What a dreadful night to be spending in a caravan on the North Yorkshire coast, with gale force northerly winds and driving rain making for a sleepless time. We were pleased to be heading back over the Pennines this morning and can confirm that it is dry, bright and breezy here in S Cheshire. What a contrast!
  49. 1 point
    Just thought I should remind the thresholds I'm using as suggested in April Below 70 = very low 70-100 = low 100-200 medium 2-300 = high 3-500= V high and the record 55,000 if it ever gets to that again in our lifetime we'll just call it extreme?
  50. 1 point
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