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I’d exercise caution I have noticed UKV sometimes gets carried away, general models supporting 9-10C 850hPa temps further SE not exceptional. I can’t see 30C being a possibility with the air mass, typically minimum for 30C it needs to be 12C, I recall in summer 2018 this was enough at times, but there were drought conditions, soils were very dry and of course we were not as early in year. Not just locally but what makes is even more unlikely to our near south, France also has very saturated soils, which is not usual for the time of year. I’d say we probably will be limited to 27-28C which of course is still very warm.

To be fair, I do remember seeing a couple days ago the first idea of a warmer pulse of air and commenting on it, though at that time it was on the 10th, now it's probably around the 12th. Taking my usual look at the GFS (left) and ECM (right), they show a general agreement until the 13th. High pressure naturally relaxing back eastward and drawing up a very warm south-easterly flow, though with weakening pressure a risk of things going BANG and maybe more general thundery rain. How they individually handle weakening pressure by the 16th is different though. The GFS is keen to send the low into Europe and build a ridge in, possibly dry and warm weather after a thundery break. The ECM is much different and forms a major low pressure system which would risk further deluges and a wet May. Both ensembles show signs of at least weak pressure over the country by Thursday the 16th. At the moment it seems this is the signal so by day 10 it could remain quite thundery with some torrential downpours and longer spells of rain around. Either way though it's all looking warmer than average. Even if something like the ECM came off it would probably return warmer than average means due to mild nights. Things can change though. We've seen before a run pick something up and then be right so don't discount a more settled look, but to me I think unsettled, and possibly thundery, is a relatively safe look for mid-month.

WYorksWeather Really impressive to see such high temperatures widely across the country over the weekend. It's not too often we reach 25C before the 2nd half of May here.

Brandon copic is on a rotating cell and possible drop here... Edit: funnel. now down.

Dark Horse next time I did contemplate taking photo but ended up just eating… was hungry off to Londonford on Friday… my niece has booked Lovely tapas place in Fulham…. She lives there and we’re at Fulham for 1230 kick off Saturday… . We’re in away end… they’ve got tickets in home seats not far from us….shes United… her boyfriend is Arsenal….will be interesting Sunday back Monday….

Weather Enthusiast91 1978. I'll do one. The previous December had given hopes of a classic winter to come, perhaps even the winter before had been a "teaser winter". The year started with a great frost but it quickly fell apart and the rest of the winter was, at times, record-breakingly mild. The spring was a mixed bag and the summer was generally quite poor though parts of the country saw some very big storms from around July 29th and through the first-half of August. September provided some relief after the drab summer. The autumn was generally more shades of grey (not a clue, this was before that book! THAT is a time frame clue though). December was almost a classic but near miss synoptics and poor uppers meant we missed out and Christmas was very green and brown.

Total guess and without looking at any figures or history...1978?! I was only a lad, but I remember that year...(!) Grainy pics of a World Cup many miles away...

WYorksWeather We seem to be in a situation where we are starting from a base state 2 degrees above the mean average for the time of year, meaning rather average synoptics can give appreciable warmth.

Mrs FLT said that it rained a bit at Whitby during the night which rather surprised me. A pleasant enough day today on the North Yorkshire moors and coast although none too warm. I thought the mist was going to roll in on the coast this evening but not so far. Forecast for the next few days looks good and I rather regret that it is only a whistle stop visit to NY this time. 'I'll be back!'

Scorcher Definitely not a common occurrence historically, no. But without going off topic it just happens so easily these days. I mean we don't even have a spectacular setup - soils are quite wet, there's still expected to be a bit of wispy cloud around, SSTs are still relatively cold though warmer than average, and the sun is still a fair way from peak strength. Of course by Sunday it will be equivalent to the very end of July, so not that weak any more, but still a factor especially when combined with the others above.

What a lovely day of sunshine today and still 16°. Didn't get to enjoy any of it today as i've torn my Meniscus and spent the afternoon at hospital, on the plus side I have the rest of the week at home to enjoy it

Robin nest update... screen-20240507-201531~2.mp4 I count three chicks there, I reckon.

For the shorter range, worth looking at UKV for the next few days on temperatures. Temperatures for Wednesday through Sunday afternoons below at 850hPa and then at the surface. In short, a growing tendency to bring increasingly warm air in at 850hPa. Notable increases in predicted temperatures compared even to yesterday's output - getting 10-11C at 850hPa by Sunday and temperatures quite widely into the mid-20s. Day by day, UK maxima are projected by the model from at 20C, 22C, 23C, 25C and by Sunday 27C, and again if usual slight underestimation were to apply maybe 28C somewhere on Sunday? Worth remarking actually how warm this is for so early in the year. For a bit of context the earliest 30C ever achieved is on the 12th May, so we're only a couple of degrees off all time records for the time of year. It would only take a very slight upgrade to put 30C on the table for Sunday. What a turn around from late last week, when there was talk of temperatures being limited to low 20s only. On Saturday and Sunday those temperatures should be reached by 9am if UKV is right!

Mmm next week remains very uncertain, not clear how the trough will interplay with the ridge, in these set ups, expect sudden short term developments. In the reliable a fine spell away from the NW, warm and feeling early summery.

The consensus from the op runs tonight is warm pretty much all the way next week but not as settled from Monday onwards. I think the chances of an immediate breakdown to much cooler conditions are diminishing now. The kind of week the ECM is showing next week would really boost the CET as minima would be very high for the time of year.

Sun's back and the Cuckoo just flew over.

Big, big cloud has just taken out the Sunshine. Still warm enough though. Sat24 suggests it might clear before Sunset.

Sunny all afternoon with the air warm enough for the first swift sightings of the year and four buzzards lazily circling on the thermals. Great for garden/outside jobs and plenty hot enough for me.

Aurora timelapse from 22:41 - 23:49 BST last night 1_1.mp4

Aurora yesterday Very faint but there at 22:30 BST - had noticed some rays on Russian cams so snapped a shot to check 22:50 BST - could faintly see the red glow on the horizon from the garden although this faded pretty quickly but was visible on camera for a fair amount of time 23:35 BST - random burst that I didn't notice until looking at the camera after

B87 I don't see why that's a safe bet at all other than through pure cynicism. Obviously any predictions are pretty much guesswork but to not get a single month above 200 hours of sunshine between May and September is a pretty rare occurrence for your location, surely?

There's also plenty of people who love to quote the odd places that are achieving cold records, but what you find is that they're so, so rare compared to the warm records, and usually of a lesser degree. For example, some Scandinavian countries have recorded December 2023 as one of the top five coldest months in their respective records. However, when you look at the broader scale, the year as a whole has been warmer than average virtually everywhere. In fact, I saw an extraordinary stat, that in the year to November, around 15-20% of the Earth's surface was having a record-warm year, and nowhere has had a record-cold year. You can always point to a few cold spots - Northern Europe, the South Pacific, and so on. But anyone who takes a look at that map and thinks there's any sort of question about what is going on temperature-wise is clutching at straws.