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Showing content with the highest reputation since 20/01/21 in Posts

  1. Bit harsh Tamara...I thought it was a constructive response by Chino to your reply
    64 points
  2. Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement parts of the country have seen far more snow than in any recent winter. Scotland has seen plenty as have parts of Northern England. The displacement has produced a consistent positive pressure anomaly to our NW but it has been positioned too far west to give us the blocking we need to get low pressure disrupting sufficiently on a NW/SE axis....but even given that we have seen plenty of cold. 3 mil
    52 points
  3. Really trying to contain my excitement here folks ! It’s difficult because this looks the best chance all winter to get some deep cold west . The pattern looks like being helped along by the MJO given events upstream. If we can just avoid any shortwave dramas near Greenland and give the troughing over the UK enough time to get se then that would be a big hurdle overcome .
    43 points
  4. Good point. A hell of a lot of weather chaos to flow under the bridge yet before we get to March, but with what happened in 2013 and 2018 another cold March this year would raise eyebrows. With 2010 as a distinct outlier it has felt for a while that winter gets delayed, an architect of CC and possibly an effect of stronger vortex development in the autumn combined with a greater propensity for wave flux impacts on the vortex mid winter to create greater SSW potential? I'm thinking aloud really and without anything like the kind of data set needed to begin to contemplate anything robust...but s
    41 points
  5. Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually was a SSW, that is actually still ongoing. So that part did not fail. - Seeing the difficulty the models are having (the verification stats posted earlier this morning show how all models drop), it is very likely we are already seeing the effects in the output, and in reality. So that part probably did not fail either. - The influence of the SSW comes in waves and covers a period from as littl
    40 points
  6. Fasinating watching the output over the past few days. Whilst next weekend is interesting I am more interested in beyond (around 3th/4th Feb) when we could see a cross polar flow with an incredibly cold airmass on the S flank of the high pressure extending from the arctic. Already seen more snow than the past few winters but that wasn't difficult to achieve!
    39 points
  7. Better news about MJO progression this week with NOAA Climate Prediction Centre reporting: The RMM index indicates the intraseasonal signal has become better organized with an increase in amplitude over the western Pacific (phases 6 and 7) during the past week. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast.......... However, dynamical models continue to favor a MJO event strengthening over the West Pacific during late Week-1 or early Week-2. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Both GEFS and ECM Ensemble now showing a moderate strength Ph
    37 points
  8. 18z keeps with that snow risk over the coming 5 days...while I'm at it...rain as turned to heavy snow here...im so happy I could do the 3rd act from singing in the rain. 20210120_220345.mp4
    36 points
  9. Posted by chionomaniac last Saturday: Just reading through your post, and the one thing that I notice is that despite the drop in GLAAM, and a reduction of the more Nino-ish December response, we have yet to see a traditional Nina H500 pattern to develop. I suspect that we have to grateful for the SSW for that - not only for well recognised polar and mid latitude responses, but also the feedback indirectly to tropical regions. I know that there are those who are far more qualified to put more meat on the bones regarding this than me and there have been a number of papers on this in the la
    35 points
  10. Hey, @Froze were the Days, when was the last time you had a good feeling about the model output?
    35 points
  11. Morning all , I have a bit of an update for you guys. Still no upgrades or downgrades regarding a potential snow event for the south. Risk is still being flagged up. Seems at this moment that any wave will skirt the south but a slight adjustment further north and possible jackpot ( old adage , more runs needed ). Looking at the ECM model this morning the team think there will be some energy disruption across Central parts of the British Isles by 168t with a snow risk as the Atlantic air tries to implode into the much colder air over the Northeast and in particular Scotland . By the end of th
    35 points
  12. I would just like to say that I don’t take any offence at Tamara's post and I am happy for it to stand. She is entitled to her opinion just as I am. I can’t deny being a chionophile, but I can say that if I see no chance of cold prospects then I either will state that or say nothing at all. But I still think that there are strong opportunities for severe cold outbreaks in the forthcoming period, but no guarantees and I’m sure Tamara realises that too.
    34 points
  13. I think we just need to be patient and hope that the signal for a cold easterly during February continues to gain support. I have noticed recently that the members that are usually the first dismiss any colder charts on the model runs beyond t144 as nothing but a ‘fantasy’ before relentlessly ridiculing people for sharing the charts from the cold model runs are always the same people to assume that every single mild chart shown on a model run is a nailed on certainty before then posting a series of comments to moan about the same milder runs as well and start off all the silly ‘winter is
    34 points
  14. Fasten your seat belts folks ! Looks like we’re on another rollercoaster ride. The ECM has a similar pattern to the GFS.
    33 points
  15. Oh my life, this weather is utterly utterly sublime. So nice to see all these pics from around the country, with a significant chunk of the population being able to 'partake' in some way or another 🙂 Crazy busy at work today. Lots of sledging.... Crazy beautiful too. Lots of hoar frost... And crazy clear. Lots of panoramas: All in all, West Lothian looking great but not as much snow as at home, and definitely not as much as there was in the colder parts of Kinross-shire yesterday! I was supposed to be working tomorrow but my boss kindly ob
    33 points
  16. Latest fax has the fronts making very slow or no progress across the British Isles on Wednesday. There is a uncertainty now of how much a push of the mild air will make . . Possible snow along this boundary for some. C
    32 points
  17. Great crisp January conditions today with the occasional snow shower after dark. Currently -6c with a -3.4c max. Plenty drift work catching the eye whilst out and the Lairig Ghru looking inevitably cold towards the south. Far from an eventful weather day folks but more than happy for a repeat effort tomorrow
    32 points
  18. Fluctuating between 0.6C and 1.2C here this evening, but everything has frozen up outside. The sun didn't come out till late afternoon, so a lot of the stuff on vertical surfaces has been retained 🙂 And because of all the blowing snow this morning, the windward side of the hill is actually whiter now than it was at 8am: Both tomorrow and Saturday are looking unreal for getting out and about locally in the snow here, and I think for me it might be unprecedented to have been able to do that locally (on a Friday) for four weeks in a row! 😮 I mean, it's not too unusual to be able to fi
    32 points
  19. Ere you go. A quick taste of this morning's 'leisurely' stroll in the Lomond Hills 😉
    32 points
  20. What an absolutely stunning day! Almost -3c already on the garden sensor! Took the kids up Warklaw Hill in Currie which is 278m. Snow almost up to my knees in places! Hard to believe I could look down and see Edinburgh Castle in one direction and my house in another! Down towards Edinburgh Currie
    31 points
  21. I’m not sure but I may be about to say in many paragraphs what @tight isobar has just said above in two lines, but hey ho! I think it is pretty clear that FI is T96 or maybe even earlier and that the models are struggling with this situation. Let’s start with the strat, here NAM plot based on the GFS 0z: The downwelling from the SSW seemed to hit a block and will continue to do so as forecast, but not for long, with the -NAM taking hold at the surface at the end of the run. This must be linked to the MJO story - others have posted the MJO phase diagram, but I expect MJO
    30 points
  22. Nick, I think this is a big upgrade from UKMO/ GFS at 144t. A real squeeze going on mid week. Cold air actually intensifies to the North of Scotland compared to this morning run ( note the positioning of the 500-1000mb thickness values) The 300mb jet further south as well in comparison. Something is happening. Looks like at least the mild air will now struggle to get into much of Scotland . C
    30 points
  23. There is no doubt that the intra seasonal influence of the MJO has a large scale effect on global weather patterns - but at ALL times of the year and not just in the rabid anticipation and frenzied expectations that so many have for winter. The diagnostic Global Synoptic Dynamical Model (GSDM) has a framework that encompasses wind-flow inertia changes c/o tropical convection (MJO) and also within extra tropics and presented in a phase plot depiction known as the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) If one puts aside all the fancy titles and acronyms, what you have with this diagnostic mode
    30 points
  24. So, if things are just so clear and no more winter to come, why not just hit the logout button and sign off instead of moaning around in the Models thread? yes gfs is not showing anything good but the models are just low in performance and FI is still very close. jezz, everywhere the same, be it English or German forums... shows we are all the same 🤣
    30 points
  25. Sorry for the blatant Edinburgh in the snow pics !
    30 points
  26. *Cherry picking alert!* What's really drawn my eyes on the ECM ensembles are the members that send Sunday's low (not Saturday's) on a slight negative tilt, bringing continental air into the first front. Needs watching. Here's an example:
    29 points
  27. It's not often I get to snowshoe from the front door so I made the most of it today 🙂 About as local as you can get! If this is what lockdown weather looks like then lock me up for life 😉
    29 points
  28. It was fairly panning down last night and this morning. Accumulating something around or north of 20cm through to midday. Lovely snowy scenes to drive around in (or a dreadful carnage for those crazy people who don’t like snow..) Showers feeding in from the NW tonight. Seems this January has some cajones. Hoping that those who have been missing out and getting wet instead will get their winter pay day soon
    29 points
  29. Evening all Hope you are all well. Frustrating couple of days here! Been surrounded with wintry/snow showers at times but unfortunately the most intense ones have either went North or South of me! 😄 Couple that did make it overhead delivered snow flurries. That theme continues through the remainder of the weekend - wee signal though for Sunday evening into Monday morning for more widespread wintry/snow showers. Sunday 20:00 Monday 04:00 Quick look further ahead - Tuesday is looking mainly dry/sunny! R
    28 points
  30. Whoop de doo! Mahoosive snowflakes coming down like theres no tomorrow! been a while since I've seen snaw that heavy! Lovin' it! ❄️❄️
    28 points
  31. Just been out with the dog up Bennachie, gave up reaching the Mither Tap as I kept falling through the windslab into chest deep powder and the dog was starting to ice over in the spindrift! Made it to the top of Craigshannoch though.
    28 points
  32. Apologies if in the wrong thread Mods - please shift if required but thought this may cheer the troops: John Hammonds Monthly update is interesting MONDAY 25th JANUARY – SUNDAY 31st JANUARY Mild air briefly fights back MONDAY 1st FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 7th FEBRUARY Dice loaded towards cold MONDAY 8th FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 21st FEBRUARY Continental cold 😉
    28 points
  33. Well. That was.....bracing! It was relatively calm when I set out at 8, but when I came back before 10 the wind had picked up and there were 2ft drifts where earlier there was nothing. Blowing over the road here now, which explains why it's so weirdly quiet. Savagely cold up on the top of East Lomond though, proper frost-nip stuff. Up to 1.8C here.
    28 points
  34. I love your posts. They vie with Tamara’s for being the most confusing, albeit in a slightly different way.
    27 points
  35. Some majestic pics in this thread today. To add some non-weather related ones I had heard Otters were playing down from my house a few weeks ago and they had until today been elusive... Wee man was doing some fishing
    27 points
  36. Big improvement today...the last few days many were fretting over dire output...but like I've said numerous times the output can flip very quickly. ECM as been a nightmare these last few days,but tonight it offers much more positives...And tbh there are a fair few GFS ens highlighting colder and more blocked scenarios. Tonight folks all I ask of you is this...JOIN ME IN THE MOTHER OF ALL COLD CHASES FOR FEBRUARY. I expect positive attitudes and loyalty from all of you, the potential outcomes could be huge,but the pay sucks 🤣 seriously folks have a wonderful Weekend..And for many some of
    27 points
  37. East Lomond just now, fab! Schools out for sledging PE 😬❄️👌
    27 points
  38. Snow settling on the car, at sea level whoooo
    27 points
  39. Watching the 12z run coming out and I thought to myself that this was a massive point in the way this winter would be remembered .......if that system disrupts southeast then we probably enter another week to two of wintry conditions countrywide and the ‘mild period’ becomes limited to a couple days across the Midlands and the south. If the low pushes across as per the op then it’s a week of less cold or even mild before the next trough likely drops south. if mid feb onwards does return a cool to cold as seems possible then we could be looking at two cold months. let’s see how the 00z han
    26 points
  40. It’s a shame the showers mostly faded before they reached here as it was stunning today. Makes lockdown bearable when the weather is like this.
    26 points
  41. Had the hill to ourselves this morning! Bonus as I expected it to be busy! What a beautiful day!!
    26 points
  42. This is around about 30 mins ago in Glenmore which is quite similar to higher areas around Aviemore
    26 points
  43. Hi folks! Busy early evening today so just catching up. Really positive output on the 12s today, yes the models haven’t nailed a proper cold spell yet but are edging towards it, which as good as we can expect given recent output. ECM clusters are out, T192-T240, all charts are green border (-NAO) and so all show some kind of high latitude blocking, and undercutting lows: Moving on the T264-T360 charts show some charts with red border (Scandi blocking) and you can see this in the 2nd cluster in particular. It would be a brave person to predict a mild outlook
    25 points
  44. The ECM doesn’t make it on this run this is because the displaced Azores high flattens too early . For newbies just to explain in more detail . The two key features are the displaced Azores high and the building ridge to the ne . Between both the energy from that UK troughing . The key to getting the ridge sw cleanly allowing the cold into the UK is a joint venture between the two key features . The Azores high ridges nw , this delays the progression of low pressure out of the USA and Canada , it needs to remain amplified and sufficiently north at the same time because of that a
    25 points
  45. Light dusting of snow here in Dunoon today it snowed on Saturday evening and again over night with a min temp of -2.4c. Today has been dry and sunny but it's just started to snow again around 5pm. Some photos I took today from the back garden,
    25 points
  46. Lovely photos everyone. Beautiful day in Aberdeenshire too with perfect XC skiing conditions in the forest. Difficult to judge depth but could easily be over a metre of level snow lying in places.
    25 points
  47. Beautiful day out there. Cold even here in the sub-tropical East Neuk. Overnight low was -2.2c and we’ve only climbed to 0.6c so far this afternoon. Some great colours in my local walk. Snowy backdrop with the Lomonds and a covering on Largo Law, as well as over the Forth in East Lothian. Quite a contrast to the green of the coastal strip!
    25 points
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