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A beautiful, lovely, cold, crisp and bright February morning here.

More cloud and feeling chilly yet again in west London, I’ve gone down with a yucky cold to add to the joy. Another frost in Czechia, apparently lots of fruit crops damaged, especially apples and grapes for wine. Late SSWs can do one

Alderc 2.0 Oh that's awful! What a disappointment for you. Hope you start to feel better soon and IF the weather improves, you'll be able to recuperate in your sunny garden.

Judging fairly, all months since March 2023 in my area- March 2023- Satanic. Worst March I've ever lived through. April 2023- Nice few days in the first third then utterly forgettable & boring. May 2023- Shockingly bad 1st half, very nice 2nd half. June 2023- Superb! Little did I know this would be as good as it gets. July 2023- Laughable. Worst July I've ever lived through. August 2023- Middle was actually quite nice but bookended by guff either side. September 2023- Stunningly brilliant 1st half, arguably the best weather since August 2022 but the 2nd half was boring. October 2023- Actually a lovely 1st half with sun & warm temperatures but the 2nd half collapsed into a rainfest. November 2023- Can't really bash this one in my area as we managed a sunny day every 3 to 5 days so no endless gloom. Fine! December 2023- One of the dullest months imaginable & one of the worst I've ever lived through. January 2024- Crisp & sunny, no complaints here! February 2024- Worst February I've ever lived through. Mild temps couldn't save this absolute greyfest. March 2024- One of the worst March's I've ever lived through but still a touch better than March 2023. April 2024- Satanic again. Worst April I've ever lived through. SSW- A gloomy-wet lovers bed buddy. So there you have it & the reason for my pessimism lately is this is the 3rd month in a row & 4 out of the last 5 that are contenders for "worst month I've ever lived through" Utterly depressing run of grey-outs & rainfests! In hindsight, the August to November period weren't that bad, just a bit on the wet side but December to April (and counting)... good grief....

Showery morning with a definite hint of sleet first thing, nor surprising as 1c at that time; dry and reasonably sunny from lunchtime onwards. Max of 9c today, nice and warm in the sunshine, frigid in the shade. Some gorgeous cloud formations mid-afternoon... Suie viewpoint lovely as ever this evening (looking north/northeast).

Both GFS and ECM 12z ensembles look slightly more encouraging perhaps than they did yesterday. The 12z GFS OP was at the top end, but there does seem to be a bit more of a marked warmup around the turn of the month. 20C may well be possible for favoured spots I imagine. The ECM meteogram is introducing more uncertainty as soon as day 5 - still quite a lot to be resolved before we can have any confidence further into May. For what it's worth, UKV has a raw 19C for Tuesday afternoon - of course key uncertainties still to be resolved. Based on these three, a warmup looks to be coming around the turn of the month as I've highlighted previously, but there's nothing I'm seeing that suggests anything notable. Again, easy to forget how fast things are changing at this time of year. By early May date records are around 27-28C, so for a warm spell to be at all notable it would have to hit mid 20s. At the moment we're nowhere near that on any of the model output. Summary Probably increasing chances compared to yesterday of at least a 2-3 day warmup around the turn of the month. Favoured spots have a chance of hitting 20C, possibly feeling warm at times and a welcome improvement if you're looking for warmth, certainly. But still a long way from anything particularly notable at this stage. And I say this as someone who would welcome something significantly warmer - if the output supports it I'll be the first to say so. Further ahead the cooldown beyond the first few days of May now looks a bit more uncertain than it did, but given the uncertainties as soon as day 5 probably not worth losing too much sleep over that at this stage in any case.

Spring may have sprung. Wife’s photo as usual.

Minimum of 0.9°C here.

Frosty roofs this morning but the best bit, it's sunny and dry.

Beautiful clear start to the day, was 1°C at 6am but felt colder, couldn't see any frost. Currently still clear, but some cloud appearing in the distant NE.

Looks like another morning to scrape the ice off the windscreen; certainly not unheard of in April but I feel like we’ve had more early morning frosts this month than Jan - March combined. Good to see the forecasters are still pushing the gradual warming next week and the Met extended outlook is talking about warm or even very warm conditions as we going further into next month so maybe we are finally seeing the end of this wretched period of weather and can look forward to venturing out without the need for a jacket. We’re not there yet though and the weekend is looking wet and cold for some although for a change it’s borderline for our our region and we may just about scrape a predominately dry couple of days with the wettest conditions to our south and east.

danm He was talking about it like it is a given and will last as long as the current rubbish we have endured. A couple of sunny and dry 35c days is nothing to worry about when we've had almost constant rain and cloud for months and months, and will have it later in the year too.

Christ, i remember when this forum was weather based and not a resemblance of 'Facebook lite' or Mums.net

WYorksWeather I wouldn’t worry, we’ll be blasted into the furnace via blowtorch southerlys from Africa before long. It happens every summer now so I’m not sure why people get so het up about some cooler weather. I’d snap your hand off for a guaranteed 2/3 day spell of -15 uppers in deep winter.

Remember in winter showers have to survive all the way from the north Sea as they don't develop over land but now they are developing over land instead so can start much closer to us.

Let's hope the GFS has picked up on a new trend as we head into the second week of May:

A brief plume week after next?

Lovely morning. A light frost to start. It’s crazy that we’re forecast showers today from an easterly wind, the flow is light. In winter, any kind of easterly setup doesn’t produce as the Pennines gobble up absolutely everything. Hopefully the forecasts are wrong (as they so often are) and we can stay dry & sunny as you’d expect from an easterly this side of the Pennines.

I came back from a very cold and blowy North Yorkshire last night. A heavy shower as I came round the south side of Manchester but had cleared by the time I arrived home. A lovely start to today and, unlike North Yorkshire, no cold wind to peg the temperatures later. Fingers crossed for the washing outside.

Well i know it is far out in la la land..but hey..what a site for sore eyes from gfs 0z this morning.. ...after next weeks warm up the ens looking distinctly average though .. .. ..actually a little below.. ..pressure.. ...gfs op...you are just cruel !!!

Frosty start and sunshine,friend who lives in Kelso says they have a little snow

-1.1°C

Just saw this thread. In terms of where we stand globally - the first three months of the year, and likely the first four, have all outperformed last year. The key will be the speed of the ENSO transition, I imagine. Both the Arctic and Antarctic are currently running a bit below average. Global temperature records are being driven primarily by extraordinary and record-breaking warmth in the tropics at the moment. Here is the ENSO plume projection initialised in March. The consensus is currently for neutral ENSO or weak La Nina for Northern Hemisphere summer, and moderate La Nina for the Northern Hemisphere autumn. If we see this slow down a little, it would increase the probability of 2024 surpassing 2023. Right now it's probably still too early to say.

Addicks Fan 1981 Nothing wrong with the hovmoller charts either - it's all the same data to be fair. Whether you use meteograms, ensembles or whatever it's all just different presentations of the same raw data. Again my posts should be taken as the situation at the time - things may look different from day to day. Going to do a quick post now.

Well the forecast I saw was for light rain all day, so a few showers isn't too bad compared to that. Looking warmer from Monday onwards

I've missed chase days like this so much, dryline days are just the best, temps in the upper 20s low 30s, beautiful cumulus towers with a deep blue sky and some absolutely amazing chase terrain, no other place in the world like the plains.

Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District. Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.

Oh, for the expansion of the Hadley cycle ,

Looks like being the wettest April since 1970 for the region.

Rain All Night too many charts for my liking . Sorry. Just complicates things in my eyes anyway….

Chilly start again, low of 0.1c. Sunny spells.

Another frost this morning. Also feeling sorry for myself with a very heavy cold. Urgh. BL

B87 my point was more that blasts of intense heat, as @Cheshire Freezewas talking about, are becoming more common. Even during average Summers. 2020 was a great example. A very warm mid July to mid August with an intense heatwave in early August.

No this is first El Niño winter since 2018/19… La Niña has been dominant. The Arctic 80N+ hasn’t been abnormally warm either in 2024 so far. There isn’t a good correlation on poles, tenuous at best.

Cheshire Freeze No we won't. I don't think we will have anything seasonal until maybe August/September. We only really had hot summers in 2018 and 2022 in recent years.

Developing supercell on Ryans stream

Metwatch I like all things zombie, and just heard about 28 Years Later which is now in development. In Absence of True Seasons The cazadores can stay in the Scottish Highlands. Anyone wishes for an SSW and they get hit with a fat man.

I hope we are going to see 30C for a week in October for compensation for this bitterly wintry April, surely that's fair right?

Colorado isn't actually a bad place to chase, it seems to rarely fail, Ijust that it doesn't typically seem to have high end events but if you want some good dusty pictures like old tornado pictures, go there.

raz.org.rain Hopefully this somehow escalates to the earliest 30°C on record, as my hair is now starting to get annoyingly long and I'd like a haircut Would also be just in time for a family wedding.

In Absence of True Seasons Any good weather in September I would welcome with open arms given it’s in the Atlantic half of the year. Anything to delay the onset of the depressing season.

Big area of showers over home moving south towards Warrington. I'm out in Liverpool atm and see the dark clouds missing me to the east.

3 hail showers this afternoon but plenty of sunshine in between. A ‘proper’ April showers day looking from the inside out, enough to lift the spirits….barely keeping about 5/6c though so still feeling like February when out in it. I’m still wearing my full winter kit when dog walking!

richie3846 Heathrow's adjusted values don't represent every station though so you have to be careful. Heathrow & Charlwood are underestimating sunshine figures by quite a bit but other locations such as Manston, Brize Norton etc probably only underestimate by a tiny fraction. The easiest way to figure how much of a deficit at certain stations, for me at least (and even that isn't 100% accurate) is to check values on the ensoleillement map on Meteociel when there has been wall to wall sunshine, particularly in Summer months & you can see which places are worse than others for sunshine reporting. Herstmonceux is by far the worst reporter as they only record something silly, like 11.6 hours of sun on a perfectly clear day, while Heathrow & Charlwood would get about 14.2, Shoeburyness 14.7 max & places like Manston, Brize Norton 15.1. It's way more complicated & very annoying that stations don't adjust themselves! I try to keep it as fair as I can in my sunshine tables by not adjusting the ones that only need miniscule adjustments & then adjusting a bit less than necessary, other stations like Heathrow & Charlwood & it seems to more or less work out about right- but still not 100% accurate of course!

We had a hail shower about 8.15 as i was driving to work, short and sharp, snow/sleet showers up at cropton forest first thing according to reports, it really needs to warm up, log burner lit again tonight with it being 2°c outside currently.

mike57 Yes, that's what I heard. We had a hail storm on the moors at 9am and it then stayed dry but bitterly cold until 3pm when it unexpectedly rained really hard. The sun came out later and it has actually been a nice evening, with the cold wind dropping right off on the NY coast. Alas, it seems we may be getting showers from a feature from the North Sea early tomorrow which may stick around until late morning. I do not normally say it, but I am actually glad that I shall be heading back to Cheshire later tomorrow.

Keldas. Glenridding Yearly visit to see the Bluebells. But we’re a week or so too early The Legendary Lung buster start up to Helvellyn. If you know you know. For a change we descended. Classic Grizedale. Memories of Nethermost Pike ahead in full winter conditions many a time. St Sunday to the left. Chill N NE breeze. Decent in The Sun when it broke. A good day.

Icelanders have the right approach to stupid people. If you get into trouble we are not saving you. The land seems to have stopped rising and there was a pause last time before the present eruption so it maybe brewing something or the inflow may have reduced suddenly and outflow is matching the inflow once again. Or it could be a slight pause.

Derbyshire_snow Local FB groups are reporting sleet and wet snow but no snow on the ground.