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The unsettled spell looks fairly short lived on the GFS 6z, let's hope so.

I’d exercise caution I have noticed UKV sometimes gets carried away, general models supporting 9-10C 850hPa temps further SE not exceptional. I can’t see 30C being a possibility with the air mass, typically minimum for 30C it needs to be 12C, I recall in summer 2018 this was enough at times, but there were drought conditions, soils were very dry and of course we were not as early in year. Not just locally but what makes is even more unlikely to our near south, France also has very saturated soils, which is not usual for the time of year. I’d say we probably will be limited to 27-28C which of course is still very warm.

Big overreaction from some this morning. The positioning of the low is still changing from run to run so no point jumping to conclusions yet. Only yesterday it was being shown as further to our south west which would allow warmth to continue albeit much more unsettled.

For the shorter range, worth looking at UKV for the next few days on temperatures. Temperatures for Wednesday through Sunday afternoons below at 850hPa and then at the surface. In short, a growing tendency to bring increasingly warm air in at 850hPa. Notable increases in predicted temperatures compared even to yesterday's output - getting 10-11C at 850hPa by Sunday and temperatures quite widely into the mid-20s. Day by day, UK maxima are projected by the model from at 20C, 22C, 23C, 25C and by Sunday 27C, and again if usual slight underestimation were to apply maybe 28C somewhere on Sunday? Worth remarking actually how warm this is for so early in the year. For a bit of context the earliest 30C ever achieved is on the 12th May, so we're only a couple of degrees off all time records for the time of year. It would only take a very slight upgrade to put 30C on the table for Sunday. What a turn around from late last week, when there was talk of temperatures being limited to low 20s only. On Saturday and Sunday those temperatures should be reached by 9am if UKV is right!

Is it just me or is the word "trough" one of the ugliest words in the English dictionary, up there with the likes of "moist" & "mucus" lol. If I see another post with "UK trough" in it, I'm gonna scream!

No way that anyone can predict a washout next week - yes, low pressure will be close by but it’s way too early to put any detail on things. This time last week, some on here were writing the whole of the bank holiday off. It turned out that down here, Saturday and Sunday were fairly nice days.

Mostly dull with some brightness now was interesting watching a builder remove dvla clamp with a stihl saw earlier I didn’t film it as he was apoplectic with anger and shouting at his labourers who where doing the removal

Not quite sure it's fair to say claims of it turning unsettled are hyperbolic. Compared to last night the GFS (left) and ECM (right) are still showing a trough in our vicinity by mid-month.. The 0z of both look quite similar by Wednesday the 15th with a trough generally over/to our SW. Cloud amounts, weather fronts and such is useless guessing at over a week ahead, but I will remind some that troughs don't always produce the worst weather. Slack troughs in the warmer months can often produce quite a lot of convection and unless you have cool uppers then days will probably be warm, especially if the sun makes an appearance. This chart looks poor on the surface but it doesn't neccesarily mean everywhere will be stuck with cloud. A bit like the trough a few days when quite a few places saw sunny spells. Generally though it seems as though the unsettled, potentially thundery outlook remains at the moment with a risk of rain bands and thunderstorms peppering the country I reckon. Definitely no sign of protracted cooler than average conditions if that's what some are concerned about. The current spring temperature record is looking flimsy! By day 9, a long way out, but the GFS 0z keep to bring high pressure back to the northern-half so perhaps a split. The ECM setting up something that could lead to a continuation of poor weather. The ensembles of both show that the overall pattern is likely a trough of some kind by Friday the 17th. Usual caveats apply. What with the storms this May so far and an unstable period potentially coming mid-month, wouldn't surprise me if May 2024 could go down as quite a thundery month. Shades of May 1999 perhaps, often warm without exceptionally high temperatures and with quite a lot of thunder.

Gfs still manages to give us average temps in London area next week 17/18 so not a complete disaster

Another fine morning. Off to Scotland for some biking, fingers crossed this holds out until Sunday at least! Everywhere growing really fast at the moment, it almost feels like summer growth.

To be fair, I do remember seeing a couple days ago the first idea of a warmer pulse of air and commenting on it, though at that time it was on the 10th, now it's probably around the 12th. Taking my usual look at the GFS (left) and ECM (right), they show a general agreement until the 13th. High pressure naturally relaxing back eastward and drawing up a very warm south-easterly flow, though with weakening pressure a risk of things going BANG and maybe more general thundery rain. How they individually handle weakening pressure by the 16th is different though. The GFS is keen to send the low into Europe and build a ridge in, possibly dry and warm weather after a thundery break. The ECM is much different and forms a major low pressure system which would risk further deluges and a wet May. Both ensembles show signs of at least weak pressure over the country by Thursday the 16th. At the moment it seems this is the signal so by day 10 it could remain quite thundery with some torrential downpours and longer spells of rain around. Either way though it's all looking warmer than average. Even if something like the ECM came off it would probably return warmer than average means due to mild nights. Things can change though. We've seen before a run pick something up and then be right so don't discount a more settled look, but to me I think unsettled, and possibly thundery, is a relatively safe look for mid-month.

According to the CFS weeklies the trough will go away by weeks 3 and 4, think Exeter are being pessimistic to be fair.

Looks like make the most of the next 4 days as the inevitable descent into dross again looks likely, hopefully won't last too long. Perfect temps low 20s on the way really nice and comfortable, this was my mum's favourite weather, she would have been sat out enjoying it with her book .

Scuba steve walked through Howard park yesterday and nearly got run over by an Evri delivery drivers van… he’d jumped out to deliver a parcel and hadn’t put it in neutral/put hand brake on… all we saw was van coming down hill, no driver but it smashed into a builders van… if hadn’t of hit that it’d have hit us walking along the pavement… there was definitely some expletives going on we heard massive crash/crunch and saw the delivery guy running down the road towards the crash… there was liquid going down the road and looked like the van was a right mess… not driveable

Yes, some quite warm bursts of sunshine here in Glossop in-between the huge cumulus. Manor Park was lovely, I love the scent of the flowering wild garlic, thought it was @WillinGlossop cooking wafting in the air for a moment.

Today highlights one of the frustrating things about this part of the country at this time of year. High pressure overhead, yet due to its position the winds from the west bring cloud, whilst many to the east and south are having a lovely day. Hopefully as the high shifts east we get more a southerly and more in the way of blue sky.

Downburst Given the ECM was showing widespread rain and showers for parts of England for today only a few days ago, I don't think we should be trusting those precipitation charts for next week.

Calm and gloomy. Mist down on fells. 14.3c

Alderc 2.0 the sea level pressure chart you posted does show it recovering fairly quickly. Not back to wall to wall sunshine but something more settled, with a trough to our SW which should give a mix of warm sunny spells and perhaps some thundery showers. Probably drier over Scotland in that set up.

00z EC.. A truly awful chart. Better make the most of the next 4 days as things look like going downhill dramatically thereafter. UK trough .

Morning, looks like another pleasant day ahead. 13°C and sun trying to burn through 6.15am. Making the most of it, I'm off to Hayfield and Glossop for a few hours today gentle walk around, really trying to build up a bit of stamina, hoping to return to work soon. Birds were very excited for their meal worms earlier.

Rain Lady A completely dry day here on Monday but places no more than a couple of miles away had rain with some getting a lot. Apart from a bit of drizzle and dampness on Saturday, and a couple of lightish showers late last week, the last week has been mainly dry and with nothing since Saturday afternoon, this is already our longest dry period since last autumn. long may it continue

Chances for Sunday?

Dark Horse next time I did contemplate taking photo but ended up just eating… was hungry off to Londonford on Friday… my niece has booked Lovely tapas place in Fulham…. She lives there and we’re at Fulham for 1230 kick off Saturday… . We’re in away end… they’ve got tickets in home seats not far from us….shes United… her boyfriend is Arsenal….will be interesting Sunday back Monday….

WYorksWeather Really impressive to see such high temperatures widely across the country over the weekend. It's not too often we reach 25C before the 2nd half of May here.

Weather-history The same charts showed rain across Northern England for today only a few days back. It's been completely dry.

Sunday?

No doubt that the GFS shows a ghastly washout early next week. However signs that the low fills and moves south by Thursday with pressure possibly building back in. Two things: 1. Let’s hope that through isn’t as deep as the GFS is showing. 2. Let’s hope it scoots off as the GFS shows for later next week.

GFS 12Z at least prevented the complete washout of the 00Z but the entire working week next week looks awful and I ain’t that keen on the stiff easterly it pulls in after that and the the ever colder northerly. Normally you’d accept some poor weather in May but after and poor start to the month and months and months of wet weather patience is wearing thin and anything less than solidly good conditions is not acceptable.

Cloudy start but brightening since late morning and lovely this afternoon and after months of wondering if the wet drops would ever end, another dry day. I think it’s time to cut the grass.

Dark Horse Enjoy the weather as best you can just like your mum would've done, yep, low to mid twenties is ideal for me too, can go a bit higher just as long as the nights are comfortable for sleeping.

An almost perfect day. 20c in light winds with good sunny spells. Just right. However it needs to be like this for the next 100 days at least to offset all the crap!

Mair Snaw Next you'll be moving into a wee place up at the Lecht ski centre as its 'an easier commute and closer to the kids schools' etc. Lovely spring day here. It's finally sprung. About time tae! Sort of weather related as the peat bog is boggy for a weather related reason... This looks like some idiot decided to pile a load of rock on top of a bound together surfboard layer of heather/grass/moss underlain by a thick layer of slippery, wet and not bound together peat. The rock pile then rides the heather surfboard downhill! Footage shows landslide at Shetland wind farm WWW.BBC.CO.UK No-one was hurt but work on the project has been suspended while the extent of the damage is investigated.

WillinGlossop bloody hell, you where lucky

Rush2019 haha nice to see the ducklings so cute Yey it’s really prevalent this year must be due to mild and wet weather we’ve had… do love wild garlic really good chopped up and either mashed into butter or over a salad… when that suns out hot hot hot still gardening two hours weeding & dead heading and an hour hedge trimming down drive (only small hedges) leaving bigger ones to someone else after birds have finished nesting…

19.3c here in central Glossop with 67% RH - feeling nice and warm when sun is out

WYorksWeather Not uncommon to have mid twenties at all. Such happened in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 give or take a week…

Popping today in city. Obligatory lunch pils. Enjoy!

When the sun is out… it feels warm and humid… another day gardening… 19c currently… lots of dosy bumble bees about… have to look where I’m walking on grass… rhododendrons are swarming with bees just popped to village greens in charlesworth for some fish for tea and picked up some local clotted cream ice cream for later yum

Alderc 2.0 No mention of the fact that the op is very much on the lower end of the ensembles for early next week? In terms of pressure anyway. If it ends up being further south west as was shown yesterday evening, it will make all the difference. There is still scope for that to happen. In any case it's not back to square one as someone has suggested in here- it's not exactly an Atlantic onslaught. We could well still have E/SE winds next week which is unlikely to mean constant rain for the west side of the country at least.

WillinGlossop Thanks Will, yes I'll be mooching around Manor Park. Just in Buxton waiting for bus to Glossop. Feels warmer today, have brought an extra layer, sun is burning through quite nicely, doubt I'll need to put it on.

Rush2019 Howard park and Manor Park are looking pretty this time of year… lots of ducks, geese and occasional heron about… both short walk from town centre… hope you have nice day out hopefully sunny most of the day after high cloud has burnt back also old glossop has three nice pubs that do nice food… tapas, curry and traditional fare

Scorcher I think models are now firming up on next week ,yes with the caveat of some changes in the synoptics still to assertained, but make the most of this week , different ball game totally next week....

northwestsnow after few days break the relentless rain may be on the way back! I hope this pattern can break for the summer

mardatha yes we have only moved 20 mins up the road, but now means the boys can walk to school and home again in 5 mins rather than 2 hours a day on school bus... smaller house as its now just the 4 of us as eldest has flown the nest.. and alsk Huntly gets more snaw so its a win win..

Kirkcaldy Weather I measured the depth in the wheelbarrow, and aye, ~2.5 inches, which fell within a couple of hours here. It was nuts. Very localised. Radar looked a bit like it was slamming into Bennachie and dropping it's load as it did so, right on top of Premnay / Auchleven. Had a look at the local geology and it's almost as I thought. Glacial till (Diamicton) overlying metamorphosed sediments. The permeable till normally absorbs the water, which will flow downwards until it hits the poor permeably metasediments, where it will then head downhill through the till porespace to emerge as springs around Auchleven; these feeding into the little river there. Don't know how deep the till is, but that amount of rain had it forming a river in a fairy obvious dry valley in the field, ergo it was totally saturated near the surface at least. The fact there is a wee dry valley in the field says this happens on a regular basis, at least in geomorphology terms! Nice little dry stream bed in it now. Looks like a wadi. A lot of the houses in Auchleven are new; last few decades. Seems the builders did try some drainage works at the problem point, but that totally failed when the dry valley came alive again. They diverted the water away from the latest houses ok, but only send it right through the centre of the old village, causing quite a mess. I had noticed a wee spring down where the problem occurs at the end of last summer and called Scottish water thinking it maybe a water leak. Was told by a local from them that it's drainage problems.

Brandon copic is on a rotating cell and possible drop here... Edit: funnel. now down.

WillinGlossop is your phone camera faulty? You wore it out with food pics but we want them back

Lovely dry warm summery day today. Birds suddenly noisy. Yesterday scarce a chirp in the chiily gloom. I've been told swifts came back near Lancaster today. Pleased we missed this yesterday . Only 0.2mm in the bit of drizzle in the evening on our far side of the Pennines. Leeds: Flash flooding hits roads and railways during storm WWW.BBC.CO.UK Thunderstorms on Bank Holiday Monday led to heavy rain and flooding in parts of north Leeds.

Mmm next week remains very uncertain, not clear how the trough will interplay with the ridge, in these set ups, expect sudden short term developments. In the reliable a fine spell away from the NW, warm and feeling early summery.