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A beautiful, lovely, cold, crisp and bright February morning here.

Alderc 2.0 Oh that's awful! What a disappointment for you. Hope you start to feel better soon and IF the weather improves, you'll be able to recuperate in your sunny garden.

More cloud and feeling chilly yet again in west London, I’ve gone down with a yucky cold to add to the joy. Another frost in Czechia, apparently lots of fruit crops damaged, especially apples and grapes for wine. Late SSWs can do one

Judging fairly, all months since March 2023 in my area- March 2023- Satanic. Worst March I've ever lived through. April 2023- Nice few days in the first third then utterly forgettable & boring. May 2023- Shockingly bad 1st half, very nice 2nd half. June 2023- Superb! Little did I know this would be as good as it gets. July 2023- Laughable. Worst July I've ever lived through. August 2023- Middle was actually quite nice but bookended by guff either side. September 2023- Stunningly brilliant 1st half, arguably the best weather since August 2022 but the 2nd half was boring. October 2023- Actually a lovely 1st half with sun & warm temperatures but the 2nd half collapsed into a rainfest. November 2023- Can't really bash this one in my area as we managed a sunny day every 3 to 5 days so no endless gloom. Fine! December 2023- One of the dullest months imaginable & one of the worst I've ever lived through. January 2024- Crisp & sunny, no complaints here! February 2024- Worst February I've ever lived through. Mild temps couldn't save this absolute greyfest. March 2024- One of the worst March's I've ever lived through but still a touch better than March 2023. April 2024- Satanic again. Worst April I've ever lived through. SSW- A gloomy-wet lovers bed buddy. So there you have it & the reason for my pessimism lately is this is the 3rd month in a row & 4 out of the last 5 that are contenders for "worst month I've ever lived through" Utterly depressing run of grey-outs & rainfests! In hindsight, the August to November period weren't that bad, just a bit on the wet side but December to April (and counting)... good grief....

Showery morning with a definite hint of sleet first thing, nor surprising as 1c at that time; dry and reasonably sunny from lunchtime onwards. Max of 9c today, nice and warm in the sunshine, frigid in the shade. Some gorgeous cloud formations mid-afternoon... Suie viewpoint lovely as ever this evening (looking north/northeast).

Spring may have sprung. Wife’s photo as usual.

Minimum of 0.9°C here.

Frosty roofs this morning but the best bit, it's sunny and dry.

Looks like another morning to scrape the ice off the windscreen; certainly not unheard of in April but I feel like we’ve had more early morning frosts this month than Jan - March combined. Good to see the forecasters are still pushing the gradual warming next week and the Met extended outlook is talking about warm or even very warm conditions as we going further into next month so maybe we are finally seeing the end of this wretched period of weather and can look forward to venturing out without the need for a jacket. We’re not there yet though and the weekend is looking wet and cold for some although for a change it’s borderline for our our region and we may just about scrape a predominately dry couple of days with the wettest conditions to our south and east.

danm He was talking about it like it is a given and will last as long as the current rubbish we have endured. A couple of sunny and dry 35c days is nothing to worry about when we've had almost constant rain and cloud for months and months, and will have it later in the year too.

Christ, i remember when this forum was weather based and not a resemblance of 'Facebook lite' or Mums.net

WYorksWeather I wouldn’t worry, we’ll be blasted into the furnace via blowtorch southerlys from Africa before long. It happens every summer now so I’m not sure why people get so het up about some cooler weather. I’d snap your hand off for a guaranteed 2/3 day spell of -15 uppers in deep winter.

Both GFS and ECM 12z ensembles look slightly more encouraging perhaps than they did yesterday. The 12z GFS OP was at the top end, but there does seem to be a bit more of a marked warmup around the turn of the month. 20C may well be possible for favoured spots I imagine. The ECM meteogram is introducing more uncertainty as soon as day 5 - still quite a lot to be resolved before we can have any confidence further into May. For what it's worth, UKV has a raw 19C for Tuesday afternoon - of course key uncertainties still to be resolved. Based on these three, a warmup looks to be coming around the turn of the month as I've highlighted previously, but there's nothing I'm seeing that suggests anything notable. Again, easy to forget how fast things are changing at this time of year. By early May date records are around 27-28C, so for a warm spell to be at all notable it would have to hit mid 20s. At the moment we're nowhere near that on any of the model output. Summary Probably increasing chances compared to yesterday of at least a 2-3 day warmup around the turn of the month. Favoured spots have a chance of hitting 20C, possibly feeling warm at times and a welcome improvement if you're looking for warmth, certainly. But still a long way from anything particularly notable at this stage. And I say this as someone who would welcome something significantly warmer - if the output supports it I'll be the first to say so. Further ahead the cooldown beyond the first few days of May now looks a bit more uncertain than it did, but given the uncertainties as soon as day 5 probably not worth losing too much sleep over that at this stage in any case.

Let's hope the GFS has picked up on a new trend as we head into the second week of May:

Lovely morning. A light frost to start. It’s crazy that we’re forecast showers today from an easterly wind, the flow is light. In winter, any kind of easterly setup doesn’t produce as the Pennines gobble up absolutely everything. Hopefully the forecasts are wrong (as they so often are) and we can stay dry & sunny as you’d expect from an easterly this side of the Pennines.

I came back from a very cold and blowy North Yorkshire last night. A heavy shower as I came round the south side of Manchester but had cleared by the time I arrived home. A lovely start to today and, unlike North Yorkshire, no cold wind to peg the temperatures later. Fingers crossed for the washing outside.

Well i know it is far out in la la land..but hey..what a site for sore eyes from gfs 0z this morning.. ...after next weeks warm up the ens looking distinctly average though .. .. ..actually a little below.. ..pressure.. ...gfs op...you are just cruel !!!

Frosty start and sunshine,friend who lives in Kelso says they have a little snow

Beautiful clear start to the day, was 1°C at 6am but felt colder, couldn't see any frost. Currently still clear, but some cloud appearing in the distant NE.

-1.1°C

Addicks Fan 1981 Nothing wrong with the hovmoller charts either - it's all the same data to be fair. Whether you use meteograms, ensembles or whatever it's all just different presentations of the same raw data. Again my posts should be taken as the situation at the time - things may look different from day to day. Going to do a quick post now.

Well the forecast I saw was for light rain all day, so a few showers isn't too bad compared to that. Looking warmer from Monday onwards

I've missed chase days like this so much, dryline days are just the best, temps in the upper 20s low 30s, beautiful cumulus towers with a deep blue sky and some absolutely amazing chase terrain, no other place in the world like the plains.

Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District. Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.

Oh, for the expansion of the Hadley cycle ,

Looks like being the wettest April since 1970 for the region.

Dusting of wet looking snow evident on at least some of the hills around the Vale of Alford first thing this morning. Warming up a bit next week?

Penrith Snow yes it would be if it was January ...

A brief plume week after next?

Some fantastic Northern Blocking on this mornings ECM, the Greenland High by day 9 is a peach, the UK remains on the cold side of the jet so any warm up will be fleeting. Best keep the central heating on. Andy

Another relatively sunny start to the day but no doubt the cloud will start to roll in by midday - can already see it building on the satellite.

Alderc 2.0 Oh gosh I'm sorry After all that planning too. Hope you have insurance! Big hugs x Bristawl Si yea it's feeeckin freezing!

Petorious Don't insult February, it's often milder than this

Spitting with rain this morning. Not very pleasant and it looks set in for the weekend. OH knocks off at lunchtime today, so we're planning to head to Southbourne for a walk and to wave at db's webcam, but it all looks a bit meh.

Feels baltic out there 6c, but the air is brass monkeys. Counting down the next 12 days until

Well I believe the saying goes ‘if you didn’t have bad luck, you’d have none at all’ and that’s certainly the case this morning. Was meant to be embarking on an adventure which was supposed to combine work and play over the next few months however instead this morning I’ve woken in hospital with what is now looking like a pretty badly broken ankle, dislocated knee, concussion and other bumps and bruises. Was out walking the dog late yesterday and was hit by a complete idiot on an e-scooter. Pretty much the whole summer is going to be ruined

Glorious morning, perfect.

This will be the first April in Shoeburyness history to not record a single day with 10+ hours sunshine. Satanic.

Bath maxima 27th: 71.4°F 28th: 62.0°F 29th: 46.5°F 30th: 48.2°F 1st: 41.6°F Bayfordbury 27th: 77°F 28th: 62°F 29th: 48°F 30th: 50°F 1st: 42.5°F Bristol maxima 27th: 68°F 28th: 60°F 29th: 45°F 30th: 48°F 1st: 41°F Glasgow maxima 27th: 59°F 28th: 61°F 29th: 49°F 30th: 46°F Liverpool maxima 27th: 70.6°F 28th: 57.5°F 29th: 49.4°F 30th: 47.3°F 1st: 46.0°F London maxima 27th: 81°F 28th: 69°F 29th: 51°F 30th: 50°F 1st: 45°F Manchester maxima 27th: 76°F 28th: 52°F 29th: 51°F 30th: 48°F 1st: 46°F 2nd: 43°F

danm A few days hot blast in an otherwise cool and unsettled summer (2015, 2020 etc) does not consitute a hot summer to me. 2018 and 2022 were good throughout. 2019 seemed like a fairly average summer, with the increased temp in July and August making up for the rain and lack of sun in June. 2021 was an awful summer. 2023 had a great June, awful July and poor August (a bit like 2017 with the July and August switched). 2016 had probably the worst June ever, a mixed to poor July and a good August. 2015 was alright in June and the first 10 days of July. The rest was bad. 2014 was good but the hottest day was only 30.3c. 2013 was good in July and August. 2012, 2011, 2008 and 2007 were awful. 2009 and 2010 were mixed, but August 2010 was one of the worst ever.

We’ve had several hot blasts in recent years, not just 2018 and 2022. Those two summers were exceptional. The number of 35c+ days has increased significantly over the last 5 or 6 years.

Just saw this thread. In terms of where we stand globally - the first three months of the year, and likely the first four, have all outperformed last year. The key will be the speed of the ENSO transition, I imagine. Both the Arctic and Antarctic are currently running a bit below average. Global temperature records are being driven primarily by extraordinary and record-breaking warmth in the tropics at the moment. Here is the ENSO plume projection initialised in March. The consensus is currently for neutral ENSO or weak La Nina for Northern Hemisphere summer, and moderate La Nina for the Northern Hemisphere autumn. If we see this slow down a little, it would increase the probability of 2024 surpassing 2023. Right now it's probably still too early to say.

Wold Topper And the fact that La Nina summers are all October-like jokes.

B87 so just a 'feeling' nothing data based? Thank you, enjoy your evening.

I hope we are going to see 30C for a week in October for compensation for this bitterly wintry April, surely that's fair right?

Second half of this April has been quite devoid of anything thundery as high pressure has had a greater influence to our west, the next few days doesn't catch my eye either. However going into May does appear a bit more interesting. Looks like a trough is modelled across various outputs to collapse down into the Bay of Biscay. As a result much warmer air comes in via central Europe, then to Germany and that eventually arriving here via an easterly mid next week, a sort of modified plume I guess. Difficult to say how thundery things would be and where the boundary between cooler and warmer air sets up, but would expect something to pop up from this pattern. Interesting to see how this evolves in the coming days.

B87 Indeed, in that time we had 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, vs 2018 being the most mixed bag on the planet and 2014, 2016, 2023 being the only ones that can be described as at least a bit poor. Quite the surplus of sunny and/or warm Aprils, looks like the 2020s are hitting us with the overdue poor ones all at once. I won't mind too much if it means we also get the sunny, drier autumns we're very overdue in turn.

stainesbloke At the worry about going too far off topic I’ll just say that the way water privatisation was set up, with a deliberately weak & captured regulator, it has been nothing more than a 30 year state sponsored theft on an epic scale, it was designed like this on purpose which makes it all the more galling. Circa £70bn of our bills has been used to pay out as dividends; I read today that Thames & SE haven’t even bothered mapping out their assets (infrastructure) after all this time. Only in supine Britain could this have happened - no other country in the world has privatised water, they (both govts) really don’t work for us so think hard who you vote for at the next GE. Unfortunately, our tax avoiding, media baron oligarchs make sure their newspapers focus on the really important stuff like: greedy nhs workers, the Kardashian's latest boob jobs, identity politics and bendy bananas instead.

Derbyshire_snow Local FB groups are reporting sleet and wet snow but no snow on the ground.