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Showing content with the highest reputation on 23/02/19 in all areas

  1. 19 points
    Calling it a day! Towell has been thrown😠 No lasting cold 850s in view again and have been trying to hang in there, still believing since the big bust in January! Was giving it till Sunday but calling it now, hoping as I write this something may still show soon but my faith in model analysis has been broken. Sad seeing the beeb showing the bfte last year this morning. Siberia! 😍 Unreal graphics on forecasts. Red warnings, (m74) closed. I was on route to Scotland the day after. Made it but couldn't see anything bar the poles on the a66.☺ Enough reminiscing. See u for the thunderstorms during the heat or December for another 47 hunt. Thanks to you all for your posts. Good and bad. Hot and cold. 😎
  2. 4 points
    The ecm does bring a waving front through on Thursday, with rain mainly effecting the south of the country, before sweeping more fronts through late Friday with heavy rain and strong winds. And then over the weekend a new depression tracks up from the south west and undergoes explosive cyclogenesis bringing gales force winds and heavy rain on Sunday/Monday. Obviously at this range merely to be noted at the moment
  3. 4 points
    The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK surface chart As can be seen a lot of low Status and mist/fog in central southern areas at the moment but should clear most places during the morning leaving a generally sunny day for the country as a whole. But the cold front associated with the complex area of low pressure to the west is edging east and cloud and patchy rain will reach NW coastal regions by around lunchtime. This will track south east during the afternoon fizzling out as it goes. Another warm day with temps well above average, unless any stratus lingers. and distinctly cooler behind the front. There will be a fair amount of stratus and mist and fog over England and Wales overnight as the weak front stalls, clearer over Scotland and N. Ireland. Thus a mild night with no frost except possibly in the Glens. So a cloudy start to Sunday which will probably burn off during the day resulting inn another warm day but upper cloud may encroach western regions during the afternoon Over Sunday evening and through early Monday some rain does effect north west Scotland as a frontal system manages to sneak around the blocking high but apart from that another dry and very warm day with temps way above average Over Tuesday and Wednesday the blocking high does actually gain a little more traction, so apart from an inconsequential weakening cold front another couple of very warm days. The precipitation for this period
  4. 4 points
    Save on the bills? We have used such a small amount of heating this winter, the gas and electricity board sent an inspector round to see if we had put a magnet on the meter! 👍
  5. 4 points
    See you all in the new winter season now. Enjoy the mild weather for now and save on the bills 👍
  6. 4 points
    What have coldies done to deserve this?..ah well, role on spring!🤣👍
  7. 3 points
    Yeah. We have mildiness. 'Pint of mild please' - you don't hear that any more! The chances of anything wintry appear to have vanished till May.
  8. 3 points
    I don't mind a heatwave - but I havent even got that! I've got cloudy with hazy sunshine. Which I suppose is better than horizontal sleet..
  9. 3 points
  10. 3 points
    My neighbors arent liking this weather either, I’m out weeding the garden but it’s too warm for shorts.
  11. 3 points
    Think the models will show an increased wintry looking outlook in the days ahead, you don't get an extreme mild spell like we have had without some sort of payback, let's be honest apart from January the whole winter was mild. March and early April has delivered plenty of snowfalls after a mild winter, look at the archives of March 1975 and the repeated snowfalls that March into early April.
  12. 3 points
  13. 3 points
    Praps we should keep the Fog Index going all year! I might make my new forum name Fog Index!! I don't remember any Feb being this foggy.
  14. 2 points
    Hello Although we may get cold in March, the meteorological winter is almost over and the models show little signs of the deeper cold we chase. So I thought I’d discuss the winter which is passing by and speculate as to the main drivers of its synoptics. It all started to seem so promising back in November… the previous winter had ended with the beast from the east, solar activity was approaching a minimum and there were signs of an SSW event in the works. There was an apparent El Nino, which led me to forecast a backloaded winter.. but even that turned out to be wrong as the El Nino waned in recent weeks... In truth the weather in November was actually pretty interesting, we had a very sluggish and amplified weather pattern… its just the UK wasn’t in the right place so it was mild here. We then had the potential for a serious cold spell with a large Greenland block as this swingometer from November showed. The Greenland high however wasn’t strong enough and milder air eventually won out. I believe that weather patterns can be like a see-saw and had we succeeded here, the chances of a cold December would have greatly increased but it wasn't to be. Aside from a brief cold snap mid month, December was awful and very mild over many areas. Although we had an SSW late on in the month the first half of winter was very poor. I wasn’t too concerned at this point however as I was going for a backloaded winter (which as I mentioned turned out to be wrong). Aside from the brief cold and snowy spell in late January the remainder of winter so far has been a write-off to be brutally honest. So why is it going so wrong? Here I discuss some factors I believed caused its downfall 1) The failed cold spells of late November and January These periods saw some fantastic output only to be toned down to nothing closer to the time. These I believe hold some significance. As mentioned I think a northern block would have increased the chances of a cold December. Think of 2010 and to a lesser extent 1995 (which saw a very blocked November but mild at times). If the vortex is displaced it can take a long time to re-organise itself and the synoptics during later November were a golden opportunity to split it, but it didn’t materialise. SST patterns over the NW North Atlantic during the second half of January show some correlation with those of the following February and March. Therefore if later January is blocked then the following February and March are more likely to be too as mild SSTs to our west would have persisted. However as we all know, the chances of an epic cold spell vanished at this time. Some really cold uppers with charts such as those forecast below were touted but the models flipped at the last minute as the swingometer painfully shows. 2) The SSW event saw lobes of the polar vortex fall into the wrong place The SSW event in late December to early January was really strong but the impact compared to February 2018 couldn’t be any more different. One of the problems was that the lobes of the PV fell into the wrong places. I noticed a lot of posts in the cold hunt thread were really hyping up the split vortex… without considering how the locations of the PV could impact things…. Split PV forecast example but this really wouldn't work for us would it? Unfortunately all the cold air spilled into the North Atlantic… which brings us to point number 3. 3) The North Atlantic cold blob You may have heard of this as it was in the news quite a bit a few years ago. It’s clearly evident when looking at global temperature trends over the last 100 years and may be related to climate change. When looking at individual winters…. Things get even more interesting. I’ve posted the SST anomalies for March following milder winters and you can see that cold anomalies to the south/east of Greenland are a common feature. February 2019 What about cold winters? I think these are pretty clear. So are we completely overlooking ocean processes and given the pattern of increasing temperatures could we also blame climate change? Either way the anomaly pattern below shows how 2018/19 fell into the trap of recent mild winters…. The Atlantic cold blob is driven by a polar vortex over Greenland that spills cold air into the North Atlantic and fire up deep Atlantic lows but also by changes in ocean circulation which in the longer run may be influenced by increased freshwater from melting ice. 4) Climate change? Ah yes the elephant in the room. I may have mentioned it in the model output thread a while back but I believe climate change is like a loaded dice. Imagine a six being the mildest and a 1 being the coldest. In a warming climate we can expect it to be easier to tap into warm pools and harder to tap into cold. These two sets of charts sum up that point very well. Often for a prolonged cold spell we need a deep cold pool to our east to hold back the Atlantic or prevent tapping into mild air. The lack of deep cold to our east meant there wasn't much of a fight to begin with. So does this mean that we will never never never see cold again? No… not at all here is how I think things will pan out in the future. 1) Summer/ Autumn Arctic sea ice will carry on decreasing in the long run – This will decrease the temperature gradient from high to mid-latitudes and will mean patterns will become stuck for longer. I believe the NAO will be more volatile with more often than not highly +NAO winters but periods of exceptional –NAO winters will also emerge to rival 2010. Neutral NAO winters will become less common. 2) There are some suggestions that some aspect of solar activity may have an impact on ocean circulation and this may finally help get rid of the annoying cold blob if it does... but there are other factors at play too. Perhaps there is a lag and we aren’t seeing the response to low solar activity yet. 3) A switch to a negative PDO…. The cold blob in the Atlantic is also connected to some extent with the PDO too. It has often been positive in recent years whilst at the start of the decade it was strongly negative. So things may change for the better although I do believe because of climate change we will require better synoptics to tap into deep cold each year. Severe cold spells will still be a feature however and if the AMOC slows then we may see more in the way of 2010 like synoptics. All the additional heat may put the climate system under more stress and we could see a change in state (imagine pulling an elastic band, also read up on Lenton et al 2008 about climate tipping points). Is the NAO showing this increased stress with the volatility seen during the 2010s. Could the elastic band be about to snap? Either way I think the things that could have gone wrong this winter did so that’s it for another year. Perhaps the dice will throw a 1? Perhaps the scales will flip and that annoying cold blob in the Atlantic will go away… For next winter I suggest the following things to keep an eye on. 1) Keep an eye on SSTs around the NW North Atlantic and to our west. 2) When there is a future SSW event where are the lobes of the PV falling? 3) When viewing the MJO charts, how wide are the uncertainty bounds? For example on the below chart the spread is huge… so whilst the average indicates strong phase 8, it could end up anywhere….. And that brings the end of my review…
  15. 2 points
    Spent breakfast with Colette, reminiscing about my Italian mother. Fortunately my Wife met her to be Mother-in-Law many times, at their local shops. I met Colette via my younger Sister, Angela. They were at school together in Bromley, N.W.Kent. I was telling my Wife about the time, during the late 1960's and 1970's, when I would retune our Kitchen wireless (wow, that dates me!!), to Radio 4, so I could listen to the Shipping Forecast. One day, Mum came out with the following "classic" line: "Toma, whya youa wanna listen to thata sh..a, whena we'a dona even hava shipa, here ina Bromley?? Loved listening to the Shipping Forecast, in cold, wintry spells. THAMES; Heavy, prolonged Snow Showers. East 5 or 6. Ah, music to my ears!! Would even get excited by mention of severe icing in, S.E.ICELAND. I was easily pleased!! Mum was full of strange Hilda Baker type, gobbledygook and incorrect intonation of syllables when speaking English, bless her and highly amusing to hear. She also had a fiery, Neapolitan temper, which I remember to my cost. I slapped my younger Sister one day and felt Mums shoe, whistle past my ear and embed itself, in our Living Room door. In typical Italian fashion, she was full of remorse and Mama Mia's, realising she could've had her son's eye out!! I learned very quickly not to upset my Neapolitan Mother. Excuse the fake Italian accent but Mum was born 30 miles north of Naples and had a lovely, lilting Neapolitan accent. Evidently, Dad was taken with her dark, sultry looks. And Mum thought Dad resembled Burt Lancaster, don't quite see that myself. But due to his Wife's fantastic cooking and old age. With his expanding cargo hold, Dad started to resemble one of these: a Lancaster Bomber, bless him and (R.I.P.) Dad. Apparently, Dad had a thing for Italian actresses, such as Claudia Cardinale: Gina Lollobrigida: (Evidently, Dad's favourite). And of course, Sophia Loren: But like a lot of Italian women after childbirth, Mum became a bit "cuddly", around the edges, shall we say. But although I'm biased, in her 20's she would've given the above, a run for their money!! Dad stayed on in Italy after the War, to marry his Italian Fiancee. in 1947. Along with another English soldier/Italian bride, Mum and Dad were invited by Gracie Fields, to spend time on her private beach, adjoining her Villa, on the Isle of Capri. Mum said that Dad got very jealous during their honeymoon, as she was being wolf-whistled at by locals, whilst sun bathing. As you can imagine, myself and my two sisters, have very fond memories of our Mother. Up until her death in 2004, she became a very much loved, cuddly NONNA, to her five Grandchildren. She will also be remembered for her amazing Italian cooking, which was DELIZIOSA and PERFETTA. Really hope B.W., Lauren and the rest of the Forum team, don't mind a bit more, family history. But the weather's very benign,boring and a bit "meh", for us Chionophiles (apologies to Katrine, for pinching her Avatar description.) Well, looks like being another Springlike (yuck!!) day, today. Read the Calendar weather!. It's still Winter! Think I'll turn the heating down now Feeling a bit feverish again, perhaps due to looking at the photos of those Italian actresses! 😓 Regards, Tom.
  16. 2 points
    It's suddenly gone very spookily quiet. Have you all been wiped oot by a tornado that missed me? 🤪
  17. 2 points
  18. 2 points
    It's just a little airborne! It's still good, it's still good.................
  19. 2 points
    Think you mean roll on summer?! Spring is well established now.....
  20. 2 points
    Foggy August equals cold February, AFI anyone😉
  21. 2 points
    Just been outside and it is still very windy also amazingly warm at 14.5c. Because of the wind passenger aircraft are coming right over us to land at Inverness airport nearly every half hour a big diffrence from my chilhood when it was only the odd military aircraft primarily the Shackletons from Kinloss.
  22. 2 points
    Slight drop on the 12s to this mornings runs! But my god waiting for something significant to devolop is becoming one long painful slog, 3 months I've been at this now and it's beginning to take its toll! 😭
  23. 2 points
    Evening all, Well the Forecast Models continue to frustrate. As Ian Currie's thoughts aren't quite going to plan, I thought I'd have a word with another Meteorologist friend of mine. Mrs. Anne Elk, sorry that should be Miss, she's a bit touchy about her marital status!! When I asked her about her current thoughts as we end the Winter Season, she stated the following: "Winters in the U.K. are mild at one end, much, much colder in the middle and mild again, at the other end." Well, we've had the mild bits Anne but what happened to the cold?? Not really what you or I wanted to hear, no doubt. But please, don't shoot the messenger!! Here is Anne appearing on a programme called, Science Today, espousing another one of her theories about the Brontosaurus: I apologise about the quality of the clip. Anne can be a very nervous individual and yes, I do have some very strange friends!! I hope B.W is ok with this, at least I kept it weather related this time. Regards, Tom.
  24. 2 points
    Agreed, if we can't have proper cold and snow I would rather have what we have now!..however, looking at the models there are signs of change but at least another week or so of this beautiful spring weather!
  25. 2 points
    we are managing to break cold records over here still..currently enduring the longest cold spell for donkeys years and with temps predicted to drop back into the -30s over the weekend..had the longest run of below 0c on record last winter.season.the coldest September on record in 2018..most amount of snow recorded and record number of snowfalls also in September 2018
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