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Quite an impressive 1st day of October on the Gfs 12z op..more like summer?! …even young Sidney is confused! ?

If it's early disruption to the fledgling vortex you're looking for, then there are far worse patterns to see at Day 10 than this: We would ideally want a stronger negative Aleutian anomaly, but given these are ensemble means I would be happy to settle for that for now

ECM 12z - The rather gentle Atlantic visit at the end of this week seemingly easily repelled by a week today. 168h A bridge of high pressure from the Azores to the Baltic taking us in properly by 192h Some chillier nights and perhaps some chillier days on their way too by the end of the run. Well blocked. 216h H500 / 240h T850 That could be some very pleasant late September weather.

And, before I make any more nonsensical predictions, I've just been made redundant!

Nice chart for anyone who is anti anticyclonic?! ?

Very settled ecm and gfs so far this morning!and once again who looks like the odd one out yup ukmo!!!!

A great winter scenario for getting cold in from the east with a PV over Greenland way, although hopefully we won't be relying solely on that come the winter. I certainly wouldn't mind the blocked scenario as long as it's SUNNY! GFS charts are looking quite similar to what we had in August though, which brought in an unusual amount of cloud so I fear a rather boring settled spell rather than a sunny one. ECM makes more of the Atlantic with winds veering southeasterly again which would be better for sunshine levels.

Ok, the absolute Full Monty from me tonight on the 12z ECM clusters, here’s the T72-T96: Pretty much on the Scandi high, blocking, developing I would say, so to T120-T168: There might be 6 clusters but I’m seeing Uk high on most of them! T192-T240: Just 5 clusters this time, but can you see one with anything unsettled for the UK because I can’t. Just for fun the T264+ set: Pick the bones out of that! Next week looks to be one of those weather crossover times - the last time you really feel the sun on your face, so enjoy! OK 5 tries to get this post sorted, and in the right thread, I just don’t care any more, yes the charts aren’t in the right order, you get the picture, hopefully…

From yesterday’s fax, but similar for several days now, the front featuring in the inter-model jetstream dilemma for the weekend extends north to south over 40 degrees of latitude from one end, east of the coast of northern Greenland, to the other, west of the coast of Morocco, almost the whole height of the chart, but despite this, there is less than 30mb pressure difference from the centre of the low to the tail. It’s proving tricky for the models to gain consensus at even this short range, with such a weak, fragmented jetstream running alongside the front (as shown here in the 12z GFS op for the same time) rather than driving it. Indeed, the shape of the front is very strikingly moulded around the edge of the jetstream including the kink over France and Iberia.

19c some sunshine, feels warm when it’s out… four large bags of wood chopped and stacked in garage… crumpet and honey with cuppa tea sat in sun earlier… off to City vs Leipzig later with eventually downloaded mobile ticket…

From the Guardian 5th 6th 7th 9th 10th 11th

I personally feel we are back to normal well the new normal I have no idea as to the reason for the shortage I would imagine illness its like any industry for example teaching take two teachers out of the equation for whatever reason then you are looking for relief teachers or the class simply does not run anyway onto the weather sunny intervals and feeling warm in the sun temperature at at a tad over 18c.

Well that proves things aren't anywhere near normal. I bet the guys have had to look elsewhere to do their jobs and now with the air industry ramping up a little, the airport fire services are scratching for experienced fire fighters.

Aaannnd: something autumnal that might get interesting -- the outside chance of a thunderstorm warning being realised. Yeah, right!

Just to follow up on this Manchester Airport was closed for an hour on Sunday due to a shortage of fire fighters flights were diverted to BHX and LGW until resources were deployed to the airport

I feel the mower might be in action shortly. Gardens like a jungle.

This morning dawned as crisp and clear as yesterday did dreich and murky, however it’s not to last apparently so I’m off to the beach right blooming now. The temperature has risen to 16.8⁰C from a minimum of 8.4⁰C at 06:52, humidity is 80%, there’s no wind at all, pressure is 1014.0hPa rising slowly, there’s been no rain today and cloud cover is a very high and hazy 2/8.

A bright autumnal morning. A pity that Mrs FLT and I could not have seen something similar on our short cruise from Southampton to Liverpool and back over the past four days. No sign of the sun and mainly cloudy and drab, although our day out - in Chester of all places on Sunday - was dry until we prepared to head back to Liverpool Docks and the boat home. Still we enjoyed ourselves with indoor activities and our journey back to Cheshire yesterday was uneventful if wet at times, and we must have missed the worst of the rain further east. Nice to be back cruising after an absence of 2-3 years in our case, and we're booked for the Round Britain cruise next May/June. Keeping our fingers crossed on this one!

Strain as I might, I'm struggling to find any excitement in all this blocked autumnal sheet. Please, can someone give the Atlantic a dose of salts?

Well if you want to do anything that requires fine weather, next week is the time to do it. Op models are keen on bringing settled weather by early next week. And then you have the ECM clusters T192-T240: Scandi high fest really, settled for UK, apart from the minor ones, cluster 4 delivers a plume, and. 5 and 6 bring the Atlantic in. As if? When did we last see that?

A good day today, confirmed our move back to Aviemore this Autumn. Just in time for a nice snowy winter, hopefully!

A stunning morning. Clear skies and mist over Lake Windermere. Became rather cloudy by the afternoon and remained so. Felt quite warm and humid. I thought we might see a rare Atlantic front move through Friday. Looks like it wants to stay away to our west. 2021 fast becoming the year when Cumbria unusually has missed many rainfall events.. each time a front looks like making it here something diverts it.. all indicative if the exceptionally non zonal Atlantic flow. Rivers and reservoirs are very low at present after a dry Spring and summer and not especially wet winter.

ECM and // at T168: If you’ve been following things, both are plausible, and something like this now probable to stop the Atlantic yet again. Next week looks very nice. I prefer the //, but then I’m all for the newbie model!!

Sounds like a Caribbean (Beach out of Reach) cruise holiday.

What a lovely day. Sunny spells and slight warmth are a perfect combination at this time of year.

A dry pleasant sunny morning here in Macc. The radar looks uneventful too, for now.

Was out walking last weekend, and many waterfalls were devoid of hardly any water, Sour Milk Ghyll in Easedale a prime example.

I’ll take scoring six goals at home even if match wasn’t the best… 15 goals seen at home in three matches ain’t bad going reservoirs going over Woodhead and snake recently have been quite low too… can see how dry the soil has been getting too digging… I’m sure we’ll make up for it over rest of autumn

Yeah it’s the same here with the Irwell. I’ve seen it lower in recent years but a few of the tributary streams around here that feed the Irwell have all but dried up. at least the dry ground makes for firm if dusty walking conditions on the tops.

If I read that correctly then they’ve had anywhere from 25 to 75% of average, so not exceptional wet at all?

United Utilities website shows Hawswater and Thirlmere at 36%, hardly half of where it would usually be at this time of year. Reservoirs in other parts of the region are fairing slightly better but it shows how lengthy these dry periods have been.

Certainly seems the case. We've barely had a zonal atlantic flow since December, just the odd spell or two, and shortlived. Reasons why it has stayed so sluggish I don't know. We have quite an intense low pressure development to our NW and marked temp gradient which is going to inject some energy into it and low and behold high pressure to the east is disrupting the trough. If this was Sprng or early summer I wouldn't be surprised. However we are approaching autumn equinox and wouldn't normally expect to see such development. Last time we had such a quiet Atlantic was 2010...

Our twice cancelled Caribbean beach holiday is now due to be a Caribbean cruise next April. hoping everything is back to normal by then but still half expecting the can to be kicked further down the road.

This is what a Autumns day should be like. Literally perfect in every aspect.The contrast to a week ago is massive.

ECM is very nice as you say! Pleasant days into the high teens/just into the low 20s. Pretty dry for most too, though far NW Scotland could take a pasting:

UK looks to right on the periphery of the battleground between a big Atlantic trough and a blocking high to the NE. Also note on this UKMO day 7 chart more tropical trouble lurking down the eastern seaboard, which is bound to mess things up even further! NOAA fancy the ridge to just about save us from the trough, though it could get close to western areas.

Wet morning, grey afternoon, dark evening. Autumn now fully entrenched. Max of 15c with light variable winds. This is a scary graphic.

JMA T180 and T264: Brings UK high earlier but on a mission to send it to Russia, don’t buy this run. My average of the 12z runs has a UK high with slight drift east by day 10. All good re ranks, I’m a Veteran now, should be back to Maestro again by the 10 O’clock news, I reckon. Whatever that means!

Like the ending to the Navgem this evening . Oh and I have badges . I see others have them too . All exciting stuff .

ECM and ECM // at T144, for comparison with the other models I posted earlier: Better ridge across on ECM, but cut off low is stronger than on the //, I’m sure both will go on to ridge the high into and beyond the UK now, maybe a question of timescales. Midway in the envelope of the other runs, with GEM at one end and GFS at the other. Not that difference between these two is massive, it isn’t, and we’re heading for a settled spell.

Mardartha and Mistyqueen, The Great Goddesses of the Spankathon! I'd better behave or I'll be getting demoted! Dreich and grey here all day, temp showing as a ridiculous 19c. Nah, not for one minute do I believe that. ( Sez she, flinging another log on the fire )

24 hours ago the forecast today on the telly was for a quiet but moist if not perfectly dry day. Woke up to pouring rain all morning. This morning's telly forecast said rain clearing from south of Scotland and fizzling out. Dry at lunchtime and now pouring again. Our beloved BBC forecasts aren't doing too well. That six hour forecast window is a tricky one to nail!

The latest copernicus data which shows all the winter lrf’s has a jan neg AO sig for jan from a few models. It’s not a disaster for coldies just yet ! (Of course long rangers always have bucket loads of salt anyway )

Didn't turn out too bad a day here, most of the heavy rain missed, and what arrived was all gone by 10am, couple of spits and spots, that was it. Still warm, still in my shorts, mind you, I wear shorts in the winter, ha ha ha.

Despite it remaining overcast all day and looking at times as if a downpour was imminent, there wasn’t any further rainfall and the temperature managed to achieve 17.4⁰C at 14:02. Looking back at the first two weeks in September, we had a high temperature at 28.2⁰C, the highest gust of wind was only 10mph, pressure got up to 1035.1hPa and only 15.6mm of rain fell during the entire period. I would normally take that as a good two weeks in any Scottish summer, never mind in autumn. Meanwhile, I appear to have ascended the well lubed pole of achievement here to attain membership of the bare bum brigade; in fact, not only membership but I am an “Enthusiast”. I feel that I have arrived where I belong. @CatchMyDrift, I truly hope for everyone's sake that your Dad won't have to wait too long.

Jetstream pattern default position all year, very weak - resulting in lengthy dry periods, and shorter unsettled more trough/cyclonic conditions with propensity for low pressure to anchor itself to the south of the UK. Quite an unusual set up.. and notable for its persistance.. indeed in a couple of months time, it would be offering significant wintry potential.. alas its September.

Ironically with climate change we may see this phenomenon more regularly if the gulf stream slows down and we get less westerly type weather. The east may end up wetter than here.

Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times Abstract Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime circulation events of the Arctic stratosphere that are accompanied by a breakdown of the polar vortex and are considered an important source of predictability of tropospheric weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and high latitudes. However, SSWs themselves are difficult to predict, with a predictability limit of around 1 to 2 weeks. The predictability limit for determining the type of event, i.e., wave-1 or wave-2 events, is even shorter. Here we analyze the dynamics of the vortex breakdown and look for early signs of the vortex deceleration process at lead times beyond the current predictability limit of SSWs. To this end, we employ a mode decomposition analysis to study the potential vorticity (PV) equation on the 850 K isentropic surface by decomposing each term in the PV equation using the empirical orthogonal functions of the PV. The first principal component (PC) is an indicator of the strength of the polar vortex and starts to increase from around 25 d before the onset of SSWs, indicating a deceleration of the polar vortex. A budget analysis based on the mode decomposition is then used to characterize the contribution of the linear and nonlinear PV advection terms to the rate of change (tendency) of the first PC. The linear PV advection term is the main contributor to the PC tendency at 25 to 15 d before the onset of SSW events for both wave-1 and wave-2 events. The nonlinear PV advection term becomes important between 15 and 1 d before the onset of wave-2 events, while the linear PV advection term continues to be the main contributor for wave-1 events. By linking the PV advection to the PV flux, we find that the linear PV flux is important for both types of SSWs from 25 to 15 d prior to the events but with different wave-2 spatial patterns, while the nonlinear PV flux displays a wave-3 wave pattern, which finally leads to a split of the polar vortex. Early signs of SSW events arise before the 1- to 2-week prediction limit currently observed in state-of-the-art prediction systems, while signs for the type of event arise at least 1 week before the event onset. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/841/2021/