Leaderboard

Snow cover forecast from ECM in next 10 days set to start expanding a bit across Siberia

I think at T144, UKMO looking best then GEM then GFS: GFS just slower to clear the low incursion. Anyway, by T240, GEM is a stunner, and GFS not bad either:

Like the ending to the Navgem this evening . Oh and I have badges . I see others have them too . All exciting stuff .

Hey Mike I've just earned a new badge...so now I can mix it with the big boys! UKMO looks pretty good at day 7 also..

What a beautiful part of the world.. Id love to retire there one day .. Snowfall looks very early this year .

A battle royale between the Atlantic and Scandi High, hopefully a repeat pattern for the Winter. If the Atlantic does make inroads against the block, any fronts may become stationary with large rainfall totals for those caught beneath. East looking best for once this year.

The latest copernicus data which shows all the winter lrf’s has a jan neg AO sig for jan from a few models. It’s not a disaster for coldies just yet ! (Of course long rangers always have bucket loads of salt anyway )

Been absolutely pelting it down here now for about 90 mins! Already up to 6.5mm of rain with loads more to come. End of the month and beyond looking insanely blocked on the ECM update last night. Look at all that red! Day 10 chart this morning and the latest from NOAA matches up quite well to this:

Brief sum up...looks like improving,especially across the South after some potentially heavy rainfall tomorrow! Next week pretty good away from the NW....Great to see much colder air digging into Greenland also. I can't go into to much technical analysis at the moment,because my profile as gone from a maestro to a newbie! Just kidding. Love ❤ it. Ending well...just love that frigid air mass to the NW....and potentially very warm in places further South next week..let's have Summer and Winter in one big blast...im gearing up for one hell of a chase this year.. im primed ..just need the final coat of lacquer

The jet looking a bit sluggish and broken as we near October just when you expect it to be nudging toward full throttle. Like Damianslaw says a few days back on another thread it's been acting odd for a while. Would be nice to see it like this a month further down the line.

Ironically with climate change we may see this phenomenon more regularly if the gulf stream slows down and we get less westerly type weather. The east may end up wetter than here.

It looks like we came off best with today’s weather. been down in the Midlands with work and the drive from Birmingham to Nuneaton and then right back up the M1 and across the M62 was constant heavy rain and mist. then like something out of Narnia, I went under the Pennine Way footbridge near junction 22 and it completely cleared and the ground was dry. not often west is best to today certainly bucked the trend.

I might get to cut the grass in a day or Two. Everytime I have chance, the rain gets there first.

Drenching rains have kept me in this morning. However going forward looks as so it will be pretty dry in this part of the country owing to the NE HP block gaining strength re ECM 0z... Not too cold either although potential for some foggy nights

The ranks are updating at the moment, so will be jumping around a bit

I'm looking forward to promotion to the spanking club with @mardatha and @mistyqueen

Next week and further on looking pretty Blocked...anomalies and the mean looking pretty solid about that.

I like autumn and winter as It gives me an excuse to be even more a hermit, i like the dark nights, I like the interesting weather when we get it like the windstorms, heavy rain and snow (rare for Exeter) But i've a feeling those of us in the south will feel it more this autumn and winter as we didn't get a good summer, lets hope we get a warm autumn and then a stormy winter to make up for it

Moving into the second half of September, which for me is the nadir for weather interest...

GFS op 12z bringing in the hang-down trough for Friday (+72h) about 4mb deeper than the 6z, trying it’s best to form a cut-off surface low, which it did transiently on the next frame on the 6z, but not quite on the noon run (+75h). 72h 12z / 6z 75h 12z / 6z

Mardartha and Mistyqueen, The Great Goddesses of the Spankathon! I'd better behave or I'll be getting demoted! Dreich and grey here all day, temp showing as a ridiculous 19c. Nah, not for one minute do I believe that. ( Sez she, flinging another log on the fire )

24 hours ago the forecast today on the telly was for a quiet but moist if not perfectly dry day. Woke up to pouring rain all morning. This morning's telly forecast said rain clearing from south of Scotland and fizzling out. Dry at lunchtime and now pouring again. Our beloved BBC forecasts aren't doing too well. That six hour forecast window is a tricky one to nail!

25°C and sunny here, perfect September day

Rained a bit… damp out…just ventured to Tesco… no lemonade or water again… 13c cloudy and chill… forecast was a bit out… netweather had me down for 1mm last night and so it’s seems it came true… another waste of a warning for here everything shifted south and east… hopefully rest of this week useable outdoors weather with some sunshine and 19-21c wood delivery ordered and log burner cleaned (have some large branches to saw up too)

Doing quite well today, looks soggy across the Midlands. Yellow warning for rain seems to have been a bit off for these parts.

It's a vintage year for those harbingers of Autumn - the Daddy Long-Legs. Got an absolute house full this year !!

Pleased we are not in the winter months.. a snow maker moving through southern, central and eastern England, missing us completely! Alas a bit of rain first thing today but a mostly dry cloudy non-descript day ahead.. uninteresting September continues!!

Oh god. Having to post now to see what I am! Meantime back on the ranch its still cool still grey and still boringg.

Oh goodie, I suddenly became a Rookie! I can see why the kids get fixated on this kind of nonsense.... Forgot to mention that I was rather taken by the amount of snowfall in Greenland at the moment..

A lovely day here aftera cool start. Had a delightful trip to the airport to have a swab rammed up my nostrils and down my throat.. 3 kids too.. so now we wait..

Hey, what's going on! We've all been robbed of status points. You're demoted to just an Aficionado now.... and someone didn't take kindly to my comments as I've been demoted from 13/14 to a 1/14 newbie!! Anyway, getting back to what really matters. Not a bad day, grey in the morning then the sun managed to break through for a time in the afternoon allowing temperatures to reach a high of 16.1c. Dry and generally light SW veering SE winds.

A great winter scenario for getting cold in from the east with a PV over Greenland way, although hopefully we won't be relying solely on that come the winter. I certainly wouldn't mind the blocked scenario as long as it's SUNNY! GFS charts are looking quite similar to what we had in August though, which brought in an unusual amount of cloud so I fear a rather boring settled spell rather than a sunny one. ECM makes more of the Atlantic with winds veering southeasterly again which would be better for sunshine levels.

Love the updates, keep them coming.

JMA T180 and T264: Brings UK high earlier but on a mission to send it to Russia, don’t buy this run. My average of the 12z runs has a UK high with slight drift east by day 10. All good re ranks, I’m a Veteran now, should be back to Maestro again by the 10 O’clock news, I reckon. Whatever that means!

Love these updates @Kirkcaldy Weather many thanks for taking the time to put them on here!

Thanks Matt, yes I was wondering about the UKMO T168! I think this looks potentially better longer term, but depends as we go into autumn whether heat is important or sunshine, if the latter you’d go for GEM, I think. Re the rank thing, I think from what @Paul said in the help area, it is rebuilding our ranks and badges from scratch and it will take a couple of days. What it all means in the grander scheme of things is a mystery to me as of yet…

Lets hope so and if the CET is kicked back into the 14's, my guess of 14.5C will be in with a chance!

Cracking day, sunny and warm with some Ci and small Cu

The models have adjusted Nichola's track south and forward speed has slowed down significantly. This is bad news for Louisiana which is going to get stuck under Nicholas for the next few days. Even as he downgrades later to a tropical depression, there will be plenty of rainfall left especially as he will stay close to the Gulf, feeding him with moisture.

Dunno what my rank is..............:) I see the forecasts we're accurate. Looked like rain was gonna miss Scotland altogether................and it's pouring with rain

Not a great feeling, as I step out the door at 5.45 in pitch black darkness, and the make it worse it’s raining. A cool dry clear autumn day would be fine, but not this muck. I know we need the rain sometimes though. Summer 2021 is over and done with. Good riddance! You were awful.

They've told me to leaf immediately.

Well... until Friday anyway. I wouldn't discount further rain until we can actually achieve high pressure over the country. Next week looks like a good bet for that at present, although as we know things can change. Personally I'm hoping for a settled late September / early October period as I'll be in North Wales during that time.

They didn't like your comment either, welcome now to Apprentice level

Just some precipitation charts from me, to support the comments of others. 12z GFS 24h precipitation at 80h and a spooky green hooded figure lurking off the west coast of Ireland is for some reason accused of eating the last banana. 144h accumulated total precipitation from the same GFS run. The banana remains as telling evidence. Most of the rain shown over Eastern England falls before the end of tomorrow - accumulation by 36h Same accumulated measures for 144h from 12z ECM and UKMO, avoiding any slip-ups. In agreement with the GFS in keeping the greatest totals over the next 6 days, up to 80mm or more, over Ireland, but also 25-50mm possible in areas of Scotland, Wales and Western England (after tomorrow), precise distributions as to be expected differing considerably between the models. For once, the UKMO has higher totals than the ECM or GFS. So wet for parts of Eastern England tomorrow, then after that, a NW / SE split through to the end of the week. Could’ve associated banana with the last phrase there, lost opportunity.

Interestingly looking at the longer term Gfs 12z op I stopped caring about what was happening in the u k (blah blah benign / yawn ) and my eyes were drawn to that cold plunge further NE…a case of the bigger picture grabbing my interest!!!!!

Cracking morning here although tad more cloudy now IMG_0476.MOV

It also appears than since this morning's software update, the ranks continue to show during the rebuild so they're all still visible but will change frequently over the next 48 hours as the system counts everything up.

Up to 21c on the dot today, not bad with the wind yet again strengthened from the E/NE. After all these months of streaming NE’ly, I hope this continues into autumn and winter so we might take advantage of some snowy streamers. After the rubbish weather this summer ruined all my garden veg one way or another, I’m done with summer and looking forward to a snow watch or two ?