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The Atlantic low is seemingly set on an intriguing little dance over the coming days as choreographed by the 12z GFS Op. Currently a shallow affair, lurking in the mid Atlantic at midnight tonight (+12h) with a central pressure of slightly less than 1016mb. It shows some intent by beginning to move northeast and deepening to 1004mb by 0z Wednesday A day later, however, it’s backed off a bit (oh what a tease!) and lost some intensity, 1012mb, with some nondescript pirouetting it’s back in the middle again, serving only to reinforce the heat and high pressure over the UK, back up to around 30 degrees widely on Thursday afternoon. It shuffles eastwards unimpressively by first thing Friday as the high gives way, a bit of improvised shape-changing but no real intensity…. ….before regathering itself and landing in just off Lands’ End by 0z Saturday, now deepened again to 1004mb, and ending the dance with a bit of a bang maybe, delivering some heavy rain to most parts of the south of England, Midlands and Wales.

The Heat is on folks...and I'm literally melting here....i might do a fry up on the patio slabs for dinner..Trust me its hot enough... So the week ahead looks very warm even Hot with plenty of the yellow stuff..im kind of hoping we get some major storms for the Weekend...I love a good bang.. And I know some of you guys who storm chase put a hell of a lot of good input and dedication on here with it...so fingers crossed. Longer term feeling confident of a rebuild...backend of the month into the start of August will hopefully see Heights gaining some traction again. Have a splendid one..

Tricky to say whether storms might be on the cards today and generally speaking anticyclonic environments are not conducive to storm development due to dry sinking upper air. The other problem with anticyclonic conditions is that although there is instability there is no trigger for storm initiation. Low level wind convergence, orographic lift (hills and mountains) become your only triggers. Today modeling is not really in agreement about where low level wind convergence is. There is no agreement on whether convection occurs at all. Looking at forecast Skewt's I can see instability with moister air coming aloft from the West. Comparing to soundings and current conditions I can see a tendency to underestimate dewpoints (17C already in some places) but also that humidity is very shallow (Nottingham sounding from last night) and with a bit of a warm nose at 500hpa. Pulling it altogether is a bit tricky and convection is likely to be isolated and I think late afternoon when moisture comes in aloft would be the likely time for storms. Lightning wizard charts show some risks of supercells and spouts in places so an isolated storm could be severe. My gut feeling is there will be no storms, but I am watching an upper level disturbance on the Eumetsat images (satellite RGB images) currently across northern England which is forecast to slip southwards over the Midlands later to see if it over runs a low level convergence zone (Chance of a surprise storm). Not sure what other forecaster's think?

At least a few GEFS 12z members agree with the operational to a certain extent.....but, for now, let’s just enjoy this fantastically summery week ahead, the working week part of it anyway! ....it then looks like a humid thundery weekend?.. ⛈

for what it is worth, been away from model watching for over a week, but the 500 mb anomaly charts and my take on what, to me, they are showing Sun 18 July Ec today not got closed upper low sw uk from sat, shows trough se England into nw Europe then ridge ne of this into e’ern Scandinavia/nw Russia Noaa has trough bit w of ec and down into Iberia, with –ve heights in this (vry small values; hard to see further e on the projection used, possibly minor contour ridging similar to ec? Met O model for 22/07 shows uk under upper ridge being replaced by closed trough by 24 th. This looks right and fits with noaa mean anomaly chart and also ec so fairly clear the ridge type weather is going to be replaced by/in 6-10 day period. To me I would punt for a break down next w/e, before for some, prob 40-50% thundery, then less heat and humidity to follow in the latter part of the 10 day noaa chart. Its 8-14 day chart shows a w’ly flow into the uk, v minor +ve heights in mid atlantic and the trough e of uk. ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

I just can't do NAVGEM for temps after it forecast something like 45C a few years back

Wahey , Hot spell extended on the Navgem like others too . @Man Without Beard those temp charts certainly seemed to come in line now ? .

Hot weather continuing for much of this week with 30°C+ looking achievable every day up to Thu on UKV 15z. Plenty more sunshine to come with maybe a possible thundery breakdown by the end of the week.☀⛈

There’s quite a lot to like about the cfs 6z during august, plenty of high pressure and very warm / hot at times...that would suit me sir!

I’m going doolally in this heat. Last night was pretty clammy even on top of the bed covers.

Today's GEFS 06Z ensembles . . . There's a potential 'Phew, What a Scorcher' in there, too:

Looking at the GEFS 6z I have high hopes for early august.. ...I could have said low hopes... ...but I’m not that kind of guy... !...glass half full.. ...anyway, the week ahead looks really very summery! ⛈

Not very often you will hear me moan, but... It's to hot

Gfs6z certainly pushing for heavy rain/storms on Friday in the south after a very warm/hot week...

I'm waiting and waiting and waiting ... for a model run to disrupt that Atlantic low. At the moment, it's forecast to roll in like a snail paced bowling ball. That hardly ever happens. I just can't see it not disrupting to some degree and catching a plume in its wake for the end of the week. Not that we'll need that to make it hot, but might just nudge things a bit deeper into the 30Cs. There was an ECM ensemble set four days ago that only had 1 out of 51 members exceeding 25C in London during this entire spell, so definitely room for manoeuvre yet!

What a super day. Daughter and I jumped in the car at midday and drove to Rhyl. Highest temp reading in the car was 29° at Mold, otherwise it was a steady 27°. Beautiful on the coast, nice breeze and not that busy. Had a refreshing paddle in the sea, lots of jellyfish around. Got back just after 7pm, I love the sea.

The longer term GEFS 12z is currently in turmoil, there are quite a lot of, dare I say unseasonably cool autumnal / unsettled charts but there are a few hints of the rinse and repeat summery pattern too from the end of July and into early August!..my hope is that August will bring more of the current conditions and the cool autumnal crap can wait until sept / oct!

Interestingly it is GFS tonight that wants to bring the heat back after next weekend’s wobble. It is usually the party pooper. I think that this is the right solution, with pressure building again after the low clears. T246:

Even though it won't happen, T+309 looks to be a wee bit on the warm side? Time to dust off the old Zak-O-Vision specs methinks!

GFS/UKMO We seem to be correcting this low a little further south now for next weekend. This introduces an easterly feed, especially the UKMO. Before then a solid week coming up. 30C looking widespread on most days across the UK.

Just for reference - ECM 00z run from today for today - 2 to 4c out in quite a few spots. Only 28s on there where 30c has been reached in a number of areas. The usual add a couple of degrees on adage holding true. I find ARPEGE and UKV much better for accurate forecast maxima.

Not here it isn't. Cloudless blue sky and very hot here again in S Cheshire.

A cheeky 34’C for the West Country this afternoon from the UKV 9z. We seem to achieve high temperatures (low to mid 30’s) much more easily nowadays.

Fantastic looking models, let's hope it continues for quite sometime as we in the southeast really need this from our depressing cloudy skies, which we've mostly had so far this summer.

Yes well, I've aged 43 years in the last year, that's what GCSE'S do to you nowadays

Still there this morning too. Again the next four days should see 30c reached somewhere in the U.K. and likely for Thursday and Friday too given the current output. IMBY but the transformation for tomorrow is quite something. A couple of days ago the temperatures were struggling to reach average on the models, this morning’s Arpege gives a predicted maximum of 29c. It really shows how much of difference cutting out the sea breeze does. General outputs, not much change from the last day or so with low pressure moving in next weekend.

Sure , that's what I am alluding too , it always has until mid summer last year . But now so far isn't blowing temps up . Until the 00run probably .

Easily warmest day of the year so far here. Max 27 degrees. Cooled off quite rapidly once sun went down. A very decent warm 7 day spell now set in. Back to N Ireland record. Very surprised how this has been achieved under current synoptics nothing extreme about them and the heat hasnt had time to establish. Why has it occured?

Some thunderstorms would be an amazing way to see off another lovely month up here in the NW. EC looks very warm out to Thurs..Still low 20s into next weekend,perhaps

Last one from me as my fingers are sticking to the the screen ECM mean fine all week as expected,before something potentially thundery next Weekend..how long does this last? Several days perhaps with Heights pegged back somewhat...at this stage I feel its primed to rebuild right at the end of the month and set to bring a fine start to everybody's month of Hell! Beyond that is above my pay grade...hell even this post is... Ps there is definitely some spread amongst thise ensembles regarding pressure..

Yes Shaky...that Low could very easily drop bringing us another plume...I think over the next few days we are going to be seeing the ops doing there normal thing..(ie) throwing out numerous scenarios...im still thinking a brief blip before an improvement from the SW towards months end....perhaps more of a SW/NE split as well...did you notice how I went against the traditional NW/SE split? It's simply not fair to keep leaving those guys out... Ensembles remain warm regarding 850s..some spread again on the pressure patterns...but for sure...indications of a trend downwards...long way off though,and I'm pretty sure things will be looking different again come 48hrs..

Spent the weekend at St Annes and did the same. just felt like being abroad, both the heat of the days and how warm the sea felt although a paddle was as far as we got. TBH it’s a long walk to the sea for a paddle at St Annes.

ECM at T168: Will this one ridge over the top? The little low 500 miles west of Ireland might have a say in that, but the UK low looks less deep here.

12z GFS fancies another 'heat pump' style cut off low to bring the hot stuff back middle to late next week: A long way off at this stage. Anything after next weekend looks up in the air with a very slack pattern developing.

Yes Ed. Looks as so the 12z is keen on reintroducing the heat. Hope so as i go to Somerset for a few days at this time...first brief hol for over 5 years . Working outside in the heat is ....challenging as you know but it is nice having it. Better still when you are having a break....notice also pretty hot in spain and the low countries again on this run..

12Z not looking too bad, at T+246 . . . Another wave?

Plenty more heat to come before then and still scope for that to change- a fair way out still.

A bit more cloud starting to develop here, yesterday was sunny all day. It would be a shame to not get a decent thunderstorm out of this spell. Hopefully we will at some point this week as the heat builds some instability.

There seems to be general agreement for a breakdown of some degree occurring across the models for next weekend although timing intensity and location are the issues with storms as they would be this far out still...

Quite agree, most unpleasant. No good for man or beast, my neighbour has been taken to hospital this morning for heart related issues, most likely linked to these high temperatures and even my tortoise is totally fed up of it! Struggling myself with this heat. It certainly is horrible sweaty Betty weather at the moment……roll on winter!!

............. well that didnt take long did it! lol The 06z is now (so far) far more aligned to the ECM and anomalies..

Brickfielder above & Convective Weather have similar forecasts on today's small potential. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-07-18 Day 1 Convective Outlook: Sun 18 Jul 2021 Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 18 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021 ISSUED 05:16 UTC Sun 18 Jul 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridging dominates across the UK/Ireland through Sunday, with a gradual weakening through this forecast period. Strong insolation and resultant diurnal heating will result in deep mixing of the low-levels, and while forecast profiles suggest potential for several hundred J/kg SBCAPE it seems likely that what convective cloud can develop will either be restricted in height by warm noses aloft, or struggle to maintain itself due to the dry mid/upper troposphere. Consequently, despite perhaps numerous attempts at fair-weather convective cloud attempting to gain some height, it may fail to produce many showers (at least for any length of time per individual cell). The main focus where convection may be a little more sustained is along marked convergence zones, such as in central Ireland and through Yorkshire/Lincolnshire, or aided by orographic forcing such as in Wales. The overall lightning risk is very low, but perhaps particular attention is given to central Ireland and the S + W Midlands during the evening hours where some subtle forcing aloft approaching from the west may phase with pre-existing convergence zones to briefly (for a couple of hours) enable convection to grow tall enough to produce an isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm. If this does occur, some local surface water issues could result. During the early hours of Monday, there could be an uptick in elevated convection across East Anglia - although the risk of lightning is considered rather low.

Well here is the Arpege at least. UKV more restrictive with the warmth in the east, hot in the south west.

Didn't you say you are 57! Crikey, we could leave school at 15, when are were a lud!

GFS and GEM have finally agreed on a date however the differences in position have really changed what's going on with the CAPE almost like a lottery. GFS positioning VS GEM Positioning So I decided to look at some more Models. UKMO ECMWF Seemingly GEM has the better positioning at the moment. Xander

The GFS appears to be off on one, the anomalies dont agree, but the ecm is much closer to the anomalies IMHO so with the ECM and anomalies in close agreement, then that suggests they are more likely to be closer to the solution. The GFS will change..

Last block of hay made Stacked till 10.00pm when photo was taken.Very tired and achy this morning. Lots of stacking to do in the next few weeks. Another reminder of "76" when you could leave bales out for days even the rain showing on radar overnight did not fall here. Currently dull and 19c but with less wind.

Latest AROME has London 32-33C today, and 30C on Monday too. I note ARPEGE pushes N Ireland back up to 31C by mid week.

Yes 1976 my second year farming after 75 another fabulous hay year with drought affecting yields in England tatties and grain made big money .We just had a couple of acres of tatties but friends on the east coast with 60 acres bought a whole farm on tattie income in 1976. Oh for prices like that this harvest but with such a contract led market today its no longer free to rise and fall to extreme levels.All these bean counters ( accountants) have a lot to answer for. Yes farming was fun then you could have a good year now and then.

What great charts these are from the ECM 12z operational..I think summers coming guys! ...I mean, what could be better than very warm / hot sunny anticyclonic followed by higher humidity and a growing chance of thunderstorms?...indeed, I think there could be a few storms sparked by the heat before the main thundery breakdown!...anyway, enjoy...but you may need a fan! ⛈