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Anomalies have now picked up on the weekend pesky little shortwave feature , late? yes, and has been mentioned, these mean charts can miss smaller shorter lived features. But overall its looking promising, as all that shortwave feature does is delay the inevitable building high. Its looking to me like the building high will end up to our East, according to the 8-14 day mean chart. So a messy weekend, that slowly improves, dries out, brightens up, and by this time next week there should be a lot of very pleasant, fine, summery weather. If the high gets to our East, then its likely to get warmer, even hot.. This sequence to me looks very good!

Firstly its much better today here than recently. Secondly it looks a tad more unsettled through the Weekend with the increasing threat of showers which could get severe at times,so you storm chasers may be looking good! It looks to be remaining on the warm and humid side towards the South also. I feel things will begin to settle down beyond this also, so very warm spells could become increasingly likely as we move forward! Just noticed some are mentioning the Exter update favours very warm conditions moving forward also! What could this mean? Plenty of beach Weather,and the risk of Storms galore for some! What's not to like folks...something for everyone.

EC looks warm and thundery to me .. Certainly Exeter now hinting at warm to hot conditions in their latest update..

Superb GFS 0Z ...lots of warm settled weather incoming and seemingly following yesterday's fabulous EC 12z. Its been a very decent June up here ,and momentum seems to be gathering for a decent start to July too. UKMO non to shabby either

well they dont come much better than this...

I must say, this morning's GFS 00Z looks pretty good: A week of coolish, cloudy, dampish weather, does not define an entire summer?

Today's GFS 06Z looks good too, with oodles of potential; the 'new kid on the block' (aka the stonking heat down in Europe) looks like doing its business! Will we see the magic 100F beaten, for the third summer in succession? I wouldn't bet against it!

Pub run going warm and settled at T192: I think this is starting to get resolved now. Settled, warm, weather will prevail, and this unsettled spell will end. Seen it enough on the main model runs and ensembles to suggest that the general direction is towards a fine settled summery start to July.

Really has gone pop. I'll have to get DSLR shots when home.

Here in Margate

Lovely sunny morning in NE Fife. Now rather cloudy but still warm - the temperature at Leuchars is currently 23c, making it the second warmest day of the year so far!

thats nearly the complete opposite of what the ecm chart for j/jl/a was predicting (posted last week here). thankfully the JMA s track record for accuracy isnt that great, but this chart will please the moaners as it gives them something to moan about..

Couldn’t care less. As long as it feels warm on my skin. Mid twenties always good enough for me

And here are the GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles; mean, operational and control runs all in the same ballpark:

Yes some pretty hot air there that the ecm0z is hinting at could be tapped into in 5 to 7 days. Plenty of fireworks i would imagine if this came off in the meantime its exactly where this weekend trough is going to end up...?

Cut some hay yesterday (takes a week to make) in an attempt to make it rain for the rest of the farm crops and Friday looks as though it will be wet.Prefer not to see to not see to many storms as grain begins to fill!!!

GEM is a bit of a disaster over the next week in the central/southern half of the UK - 2 to 4 inches of rain quite widely: GFS not quite so apocalyptic, rain concentrated in the S/SW: UKMO looks wet until we see an improvement by the middle of next week: As @northwestsnow alludes to above, the potential is certainly now there after this pesky feature disappears for a fine spell of weather thereafter:

18 - 55 mm Thought I'd try out my Tamron 70 - 300 mm lenses on these NLC structures. Quality's certainly not as good as my 18 - 55 but shows some amazing structure. 70 - 300 mm

Fantastic ecm mean tonight from start to finish!!dunno what fixation the op has with that low in the atlantic between 192 and 216 hours!!expect it to drop that in the next couple of runs if the mean is on the ball!!looks like perfect hot summer weather on that!!

I think I must be looking at different charts to others?? ..., tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean, especially in the mid / longer term screams summery!!!

First pick of the season Hooray for a good start to June

In line with what the Anomaly charts have been suggesting .. lol

We've not seen any rain yet here in the south of the region and it has actually been a nice day and pleasantly warm.

You should get a test if you have any covid symptoms. The PCR tests are fairly accurate, if you are symptomatic. Its the rapid lateral flow tests that are less so, and they are not designed for people who have symptoms anyway.

Well worth watching these videos, and listen carefully to what the forecaster says! Of course they change, that is because the models are 'trying' to predict what and when changes will occur to the weather.

Trade deals are directed by cabinet ministers. The current crop of cabinet ministers were chosen from a limited pool of pro-Brexit Tories who, by definition, are not the brightest spoons in the drawer and who, without fail, fail. The only surprising thing about the Aussie deal is that it took so long to reach agreement when our side could only see as far as getting an agreement. Any agreement. Today is a bit disappointing after the wall to wall blueness of yesterday. This morning's early rain gave way to mist that eventually lifted at lunchtime but left a heavy humidity behind, which makes it difficult to breath when one's lungs are knackered. Temperature currently highest of the day at 14.2deg.C up from 9.9deg.C at 00:46, humidity is 89%, wind 3 to 6mph south-southwesterly, pressure is 1025.0hPa steady, there's been 3.0mm of rain this morning and cloud cover is 8/8.

Spot the snot!

Today's GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles:

The biggest danger is that the Aussie trade deal, as is, sets a dangerous precedent for all forthcoming deals with major agricultural powers that are a lot closer to our shores and with a lot more political clout (looking at you North America in particular...). They've set the bar so low that those countries are going to demand the same, or else, as we've no bargaining power nowadays being outside of any major trading block. No wonder the Australian PM was delighted with the deal, if our negotiators were strategic thinkers the Aussie deal was the one where they should had held out for a good deal, to give some negotiating leverage for the tougher deals to come with the likes of the USA. You just have to look at the mess in many African countries regarding food sovereignty to see how things could well end up here. As for the weather, overcast to start with but skies cleared a bit from 11am to allow some sunny intervals. Temperatures responding, up to a humid 20c now with light winds.

Me too. Tiny spotlets on doorstep. Breeze helping to shift midges.

Gosh we have something called rain outside, not just a drizzle mizzle spitter spatter dotty burst.. looks fairly shortlived but it is soaking every surface at least..

Pretty darn good ecm mean and i will take the op for now as well please!!mucy drier early on as well!!

A rather warm looking ECM ensemble mean too:

.....and another glorious morning although this one is not forecast to last.

ECM 12z T240 mean and spread: Rising pressure, but the spread is interesting there is uncertainty about the fate of the cut off low out west, but otherwise is likely due to a jet stream pushing north of the UK. At that timescale, probably a NW/SE split, but could be on the way to something more settled overall.

I actually really like these and find them easy to follow.

Today has turned out better than I was expecting and hasn't gone as forecast. It was mostly sunny until around lunchtime. Just had a burst of drizzle just now, but not enough to wet the ground.

It's been alright here also; many 20C+ days and rainfall below average for the month of June. There have only been a couple of mediocre days so far this month in my neck of the woods. Southerners on here are talking as if this has been one of the worst Junes on record and that summer is over. They must have been having it bad this month.

And here's the very latest MetO's thinking on the models:

yes...it was a bit frustrating last night. the clear night forecast never really materialized. We started to see Capella around 00.30 with the skies below obscured by local haze which remained for rest of the morning...the clarity was just not there imby NCL`s were visible from near European countries Edit; and Norfolk As for tonight ( If `clear`) and working on 3 days(ish) migrations brings us to an area on the 20th AIM which is interesting.....lots of flotsam Still relatively low Solar activity although slightly increased than last week Awaiting tonight`s AIM release

Trying not to be to controversial but I am glad Jeremy Clarkson understands why farmers are such grumpy miserable so and so"s. Family says its no excuse however.!!!

Lovely day yesterday after early frost then light rain in the evening. Nice this morning but humid and midges in abundance

Yes... never does past midday lol.

They are having it bad down south .. June has been lovely here,apart from 3 days recently.. Even yesterday was nice

ECM much better on Sunday - the low is centred about 100 miles further SW than the GEM for example, and is less organised. As such, the heavy rain bands shown moving across the UK on the GEM (below) are instead just a few showers concentrated in the S/SW corner closest to the low:

Stunning evening, full moon and twilight. A night when it won't be fully dark!

They’re uncomfortable to do…my husband always nearly pukes doing it, but I’d rather be sure and mindfully ready that I’m negative than positive especially over the next ten days going to two weddings and my Nans funeral (who died from pneumonia not Covid) bless her xx glad to have season tickets renued at City and to be attending all matches next season as both vaccinated…..

Absolutely, people have no idea what they are talking about. Having spent many years of my life in a much hotter climate i can safely say that, especially in a warming world, the uk has the best summer weather in the entire world.

EWP now around 38 mm (33 to Sunday, +5 est Monday) ... GFS now goes on a rampage over Yorkshire later this month, not sure if it's that consistent with other guidance so large uncertainty on the 40-50 grid average to 30th that gets us to 78-88 mm but I'll take it after writing off anything much over 60 most of the last week or two. ... CET looks rather cool to end, probably will leak a bit and end up in the mid to high 15s. It is exceptionally warm in my part of the world this month (expecting a +4 C anomaly), looking back at other very warm Junes here, I see a general correlation with cool/wet outcomes in Europe. Not totally in that direction though. Also the GFS guidance for early July is currently a mixture of fair to very poor for summer weather. The early June warmth in Britain was also a "contra-indication" for generally sustained summer warmth. Let's hope 2021 bucks all these signals but if I had to bet money, summer in late August and early September.

Gorgeous day, clear blue skies, light SE wind and current temperature of 16c. Overnight low down to 4.1c, so not as low as I thought it would get but still pretty cool for the time of year. Not often you get waves of hail passing your house (St Blasien is in SW Germany near the Swiss Border, looks nice place for a holiday).