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Right folks its a bit Meh at present, the sun hardly made and appearance here since last Wednesday! And the week ahead is shall we say usable....But I feel things should start to improve towards the weekend and more so into next week. This mornings ECM is a peach and it's also backed up by the mean..Forget what GFS shows its clueless...running 4 times a day make it a big show-off!! Ohhhh....look at me I run more than any other model A little patience required good people, it won't be long before we are locked and loaded for another cracking spell...Trust me @Alderc you will be swinging from the palm trees before much longer mate Have a top week..get ya beers in for tomorrow night...no dramas,no pressure...no problamo...

To Give you an idea just how pathetic our little Island has become I have lifted some artifacts from a book I have detailing June Thunderstorms over the decades. 1980 There was a major outbreak of thunderstorms in the north and west on the 5th. Deaths by lightning; tornado at Nairn wrecked a caravan site. 67mm of rain in two hours caused flooding at Darwen (Lancs.). More storms on the 14th: 24 mm of rain in 10 minutes at Sudbury. Widespread storms every afternoon from the 22nd-26th. On the 25th hail lay to a depth of 25cm in Sevenoaks 1982 Much of the rain came from thunderstorms. King's Lynn had 13 thunder days that month. Some notable thunderstorms at the start of the month, which began hot and humid. Thuderstorms on the afternoon of the first led to flooding arounf Huddersfield. There was 90 mm of rain in two hours at Wooton Bassett (Wilts) on the 2nd. 92 mm of rain at Cheshunt (Herts.) and 61mm at Enfield on the 4th. Cheshunt then had a further 35mm of rain on the 5th (that meant twice the normal monthly rainfall in two days). Thunderstorms were widespread on the 4-6th, with lightning deaths. 39 mm of rain in 25 minutes at Stoke-by-Clare (Suffolk) on the 6th; 96 mm at Skipton (North Yorks.) on the 6th. At the same time, 30C was reached at Tummel Bridge on the 5th. There was a notable hailstorm in Bristol on the 18th. Two days of rain over northern England on the 21-22nd, with low daytime temperatures of only 10 degrees. The area around the Humber had 100 mm of rain in 75 hours in that spell. Heavy downpour in Epping Forest on the 25th causing muddy flooding. On the 26th a severe storm in north London led to the death of three children by drowning in a swollen stream at Hendon. 36mm at Stanmore, most of it in half an hour. A severe hailstorm at Ludlow (Shrops.) on the 26th resulted in foot-deep hail drifts. 1983 Some notable thunderstorms. As hot air from the south met cool air from the northeast, there were some severe thunderstorms on the 5th over the south coast, with hail reported up to 75 mm, although most were around 30mm. There was a small tornado near Brighton, leading to a crabfall. The storm clouds were reported as an eery green colour. Coal picked up by a small tornado fell on Poole during a storm. The cold front associated with the depression led to more thunder and hailstorms on the 7th, particularly over Wales and the west: hailstones 75 mm in diameter were reported in a storm in Manchester, with spectacular lightning. Much damage. There were some unsettled westerlies in second week. It was then warm and settled before more severe thunderstorms on 23rd, with103 mm of rain near Alresford (Hants.). 1984-1987 Thundery hot and humid weather most of these Junes with Plume events impacting the United Kingdom 1988 & 1989 These 2 years saw little in the way of June Thunderstorms but a Heavy Hailstorm near Chatham on the 6th June 1989 the highlight on a very thundery day for the Uk. I can put the 1990's and 2000's in as well if people want and also have all the events from Julys and Augusts if anyone is interested

A nice GFS 00Z to wake up to:

There’s plenty of very good looking output this morning once we get through this week’s generally mixed bag of Atlantic based weather, but since it’s a mixed bag there’s some fine pleasant weather too with some ridging and temperatures returning to around average!...Here’s the much better news, the ECM 0z op turns into a cracker for summer fans, the ECM 0z ensemble mean gradually becomes more settled with stronger ridging (especially further south)....and the Gem 0z, for the most part turns into a gem..like yesterday’s 12z! ...could be worse.....?

Very good models this morning if you like warn dry weather!!!what looked like a slightly longer wet spell a few days ago seems to have ended abruptly!!!ukmo and gfs warm and humid odd shower here and there!!ecm pick of the bunch this morning driest of them all and pressure much higher!!

Out all night, high up in the hills above Macc on an NLC watch, boy was it chilly. Hung around to catch the first glows of sunrise, posted a photo but it does not really capture the beauty of it. Current temp 17° , garden thermometer nudging 19°.

Munich now

The ECM 12z op really perks up towards the end...the Azores high / ridge... could soon become our friend again..a good start to July?

I love the optimism of the post.....I hope it works more effectively in summer than it does in winter!! :)

It does happen on occasion! Lots at play still here. Until that trough gets pinned down anywhere could end up with anything! ECM Ensembles have gone all M People this morning - Movin' on up: Top two ECM clusters look reasonable, the 3rd one looks disappointing with a regressed high and low pressure dominating:

Unsurprisingly the 00z UKMO looks nothing like last nights run. The vanishing trough from yesterday has re-appeared more akin to other model output. As the low sinks south it starts to advect warmer air up from the SE:

The most revolting summer's day I can remember since last Friday.

Cheers Tim...no dramas,when you spend 6 months trying to find a cold snap its sods law you will get one correct in the end.

Same thin line 02..ish and a quick time-lapse

When I saw the Ukmo 12h @T+144 hours I thought wow, surely this is too good to be true?...but then I saw the Gem 12z at day 6 and moving forward through 7, 8 & 9...actually they are pretty much the same in terms of an anticyclone gradually building in and becoming centred slap bang over the u k!..and there are some GEFS 12z perturbations which look similar, there’s certainly support from the mean for ridging in that timeframe..so why not a proper high bringing settled, summery conditions nationwide?... ...time will tell!

sorry i completely disagree with you.. the UKMO was not an outlier.. it was pretty much bang on IF you take any heed of the NOAA anomaly charts... and its not vanished today.. The outlook is pretty certain as far as im concerned, high pressure will build to our near west and a positive pressure anomaly will persist over the uk not only in the 6-10 day timeframe but the 8-14 day too. The outlook is pretty certain, its going to be fairly fine, below average rains, calm, not completely settled and no heatwave, but a lot of really decent summers weather. Im not going to argue about the detail, but .... DEAL!

I would happily take the GEM 12z longer term, it becomes much warmer, there’s some ridging which means some fine sunny conditions but there’s also a chance of thundery activity?...anyway, at least the charts look summery which ticks the right boxes for me!!

Hi all, new here but enjoy discussing the British weather so thought I'd join in . In London we have not seen the sun, as in not even a single ray poking through, nor a scrap of light, since Wednesday. Very unusual in the South for June to have 5 days on the trot of consistent 100% overcast and rain. Looks to be 7 days of it by the time Wednesday rolls around. A balmy 13 degrees currently, which for late June is appalling. We have had to put our heating on (dont recall ever doing that in late June before) after having the fans on just a week ago. I'm very jealous of my friend who lives in St Petersburg currently enjoying 30 degrees. Even my old uni-mate from Sweden is enjoying some sun for their Midsommar! UK weather can truly be woeful at times. It can be much like Iceland but just a tad warmer and with less beautiful landscapes. I can recall many sunny December days feeling warmer than this. This seems like a return to the unseasonably cool and wet weather we were having throughout the whole of May. Its almost exactly the same conditions. And such a shame to have this grimness on the longest 'brightest' days of the year. This is why I hate it when people complain about the warmth / sun (like we had at the begining of June for a week or so), because it is so short-lived and could be followed by an entire week of autumn-like temps where the sun doesnt shine for days on end! I can see that those in the North arent doing too badly right now...have our weather patterns shifted!? Good for you lads up there. Because I'm currently feeling like I'm in the Scottish Highlands, with the low teens and drizzle which is generally the weather I have when hiking up there In Summer.

A thin white band/line appeared sometime between 2 and 3.15. Lost track of time, quite chilly up in the hills.

Could see it for a time at Sutton before the mid level cloud went and 'ate' it. Had a bit of kelvin helmholtz too illuminated by the limited visible NLC (not that noticeable in this longer exposure). Nothing like Friday night's display. Pics at the Malahide Estuary.

What's your idea of warmer temps? Those look like a very normal set of ensembles and the GEM ones you posted yesterday were above average. Mean touching 10C at 850hpa level (even on the GEFS mean) could be ~25C at the surface if there's enough sunshine. But of course you know all that, if you are only looking for abnormal conditions you will mostly be disappointed.

The GEFS 12z does have some good signs, especially during early July...the mean generally indicates a typical north / south split but some of the ensembles become very summery...nationwide!..some May say that’s not realistic but at that longer range..who knows who will be right, the optimist?, the pessimist? or the realist..anyhoo, here’s a small sample.. ?!!!

UKMO run a million times better than gfs at day 7. One to bank, one to bin!

The Ukmo 12h at day 6 doesn’t look bad?, it’s quite ridgy, certainly better than the Gfs 12z in the same timeframe!..wonder what the ECM will do now?...0z was superb for summer fans!

Going to be a long week for the amateur forecaster! There's no sign yet of the models getting a handle on this cut-off low for the weekend, different solutions every run on GFS especially and also UKMO/ECM, and all scenarios from heatwave to washout still possible! Middle ground, not even sure what that would be in this scenario.

Today 41 degrees already at 10 in the morning in Trapani, Sicily. There are currently 35 degrees in Rome and Naples, 40 degrees in Foggia, Puglia - this is one of the largest post-war heatwaves in peninsular Italy and the Balkans, but also in northeastern Europe.

There was a glow in the sky all night last night here, thanks to the clear skies, moon and it being the shortest night of the year. Sky never went pitch black, was more of a very deep blue. Something southerners don’t get to see. In Scotland of course it’s even better, never goes darker than nautical twilight (light enough for ships to see the land).

Current temp 14 degrees on the longest day! Poor indeed, not expecting much of a climb this afternoon. Average max late June about 18-19 degrees here. We reach our peak 20-21 degrees in months time. Another frontal feature that has just given cloud this month, no rain at all from this one. May see some light rain at times mid-week.

Well this is most unhelpful! The Big 4 at 144 hours, all looking different: ECM develops into quite a nice run though. West based high, so the best conditions tending to best west of the UK/Ireland, while cooler air feeds down the eastern half. Eastern coastal areas could suffer with very cool temps in this set up stuck in the low to mid teens:

I'm very interested in hearing about the 1990's and 2000's thanks for this fantastic post. Great reading

Just scrolled through the gfs and ecm ,long range forecast from my point of view an undulating jet stream...Heat ,Cold ,Wet, Dry ...British Weather Anyone.......!!!

The ECM 12z op eventually turns out pretty good for the majority with summery warmth and high pressure / ridging returning, especially further south!...so, we have some great signs from the Ukmo, Gem and now the ECM! ....I don’t think there would need to be much adjustment for a nationwide anticyclonic spell!!...you know nothing Jon snow!

How is being able to sleep at night, grim? Loving the fact I don't wake up in a pool of sweat.

Waiting for the 'I had to put on the heating today, so much for global warming' lot to surface on social media today.

Yesterday was dull and grey all day with temperatures topping out around 15 degrees and nearly 5mm of rain falling in the early morning. Today is a bit better and although it's still mainly overcast there is a bit of brightness about. Going to see isolating daughter this afternoon but only through the wire. Temperature currently 15.8deg.C up from a minimum of 7.6deg.C at 03:27, humidity is 60%, wind is 1 to 3mph northwesterly, pressure is 1020.6hPa rising slowly, there's been no rain in the last 24 hours and cloud cover is 7/8.

Too far out but the 06zrun breaks down the low more effectively than the 00z run, shows the variance in models and that's why I hold out hope for this low to breakdown rather quickly but not great for those surface storm lovers if this were to come off. 00 06 Netweather's GFS builds up the high pressure earlier, nothing in there again for those storm lovers but who doesn't love a good bit of sunshine whilst the temperature isn't too hot. Trying to be happy about the 06z run but a lot of boring stuff happening at the moment which for me is usual in June, still got a couple of months of Summer to go. Edit Just seen the apocalypse

Farmland is like concrete at present. Painful to walk on it all day. Traditional meadows haven't much bulk yet so a SHORT spell of some warm rain would do good. However the dryness is actually very welcome and allows some catch up with outdoor work after all the wet weather in record wet 2010 and wet early 2021.

2021 rain reminder in mms - from the daily manual gauge here. Jan 302.6 (record since recording started in Sep 1968) Feb 132,5 Mar 162.9 Apr 19.4 May 154.5 June so far ... 4.4 Spring water still running, but endless watering need for garden vegs.

Happy first day of Autumn everyone.

I appear to have booked a week off work in October! Dreadful weather out there.

In the early hours of 1st June 1983, there were notable thunderstorms imported from France in the south of England, with particularly active cells at 1am and 3am. I was camping in Hampshire at the time and recall an interesting if sleepless night! These storms were described recently on another thread.

Today is #ShowYourStripes day

Shortest night of the year

The time is exactly 04:32 on Monday the 21st of June 2021, and the summer solstice has just occurred! Yes folks, the pendulum has finally reached the end of its stroke! ️ Today we have got nine hours and twenty seven minutes more daylight than we had back in December! Five weeks ago I commented on the fact that the solstice was approaching… I’m not gonna lie, those five weeks have been a long hard slog for me. As a sufferer of summer S.A.D. I for one look forward shortening days, gathering mists, ripening fruits, and look forward to welcoming the increasing darkness; like an old friend returning. ? The summer sun is fading as the year grows oldAnd darker days are drawing near…

Have them here now...thin line due North around 5° Bright started a time-lapse so photos later

Some nice rain to wet the garden today, especially a heavy burst around lunchtime, after we'd hung out some washing to dry (eventually brought back in, design and hung up inside).

Exactly what the seasonal models were predicting- Mean HP sat just to our west and a rather benign pattern across the UK. The pattern was advertised as being a predominant one months back.

Just back from a week on the Northumberland coast. I’ve been fortunate enough to see a lot of beaches in my time but you’d find is difficult to beat those Northumberland beaches. This is the view to Farne Islands from Bamburgh. Last weeks weather was fab. No rain, lots of sun and around 18c I reckon. Northumberland is so unspoilt, it’s a real gem for a staycation

Not the most inspiring of weeks ahead, but far from a washout. Azores high staying fairly robust, but not quite close enough to prevent weak Atlantic incursions moving in from the NW bringing damp cloudy weather at times, more so Wed-Fri. Heaviest rain looks reserved yet again! For the south tomorrow. As we end June, signal the azores high will flex enough muscle to oust away the Atlantic, which would allow for more nationwide settled warm sunny conditions, question is whether it will have enough muscle to settle over the UK and move east, or just linger to our west. Either way a pleasant end to the month looks quite probable, but still time for new developments to emerge to scupper that prediction. For here it is turning into an exceptionally dry June. Keswick has had just 3% of it's normal June average rainfall, last true wet day was nearing 4 weeks ago, we are having May weather in June!

I’m going to use that word again... ...ridgy! ..yes that’s how I would describe the GEFS 6z mean..yes there’s wax and wane / ebb and flow but I’m thinking the longer term outlook in particular could be quite summery!..with a ridgy mean you get perturbations like this!!! ...in the meantime, the week ahead is a bit mixed for sure, and starting cool but temperatures recovering into the high teens / low twenties c further south / southeast and it looks predominantly fine, away from the far nw / n which could be rainy midweek!...all in all, it’s not a bad outlook, just not as good as it’s been recently..but that could change further ahead..small sample below! !