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At First glance this looks like your typical Spanish plume scenario. What we tend to see from these is that as we get closer, the forecasting takes the storms eastwards often with the result that you get a Kent clipper. These give a splendid light show out to sea for the South East. There are plumes that destabilize over the UK during the daytime with elevated storms which late on give a lightning show but very little rain as it evaporates before reaching the ground. Occasionally you will get storms over the continent which are surface based and drift North over the UK overnight which gives a nighttime show and plenty of rain. So Spanish plume scenarios generally mean elevated storms, lightning but not always heavy rain. French imports generally loose strength when crossing the channel. These plumes involve very hot moist air from Spain being lifted up as they cross the northern mountains of Spain. Cooling as air moves north or due to night time temperatures will cause the moisture to create clouds. There are a couple of things that suggest that this may not conform exactly to a standard plume event. GDAS blocking forecasts suggest that the tendency for high pressure over the UK will move towards north east Scandinavia. This might mean models are over doing the modelling of high pressure strength towards the Azores and the plume might head towards the UK. Then we have a heat low over northern Spain driving some Jetstreaks from the Spanish cut of low northwards as the cut off low engages again with the Jetstream. It is slightly unusual for the low level air underneath the plume to be coming from the north Atlantic when it begins to destabilize. This air can be more moist than continental air and means that surface storms are more likely to develop over France. This can also mean that an MCS will develop over the Bay of Biscay. Depending on the timing the leading edge of such an MCS can give rise to some localized conditions which could lead to a weak tornado. Typically this type of MCS gives very heavy rain with not much lightning. Unfortunately we are too far out and the models are going to chop and change a lot so guessing the scenario we get is very tricky at this range. There are also more chances of storms for the following days as well and judging by the Jetstream forecast these might be equally worth monitoring.

Looks like the UKMO has gone absolutely bonkers again. Yes - that's the 22/23c isotherm getting into the SE. Pretty sure it showed something similar yesterday.

Well the UKMO is still very intent on bringing the plume back to the UK next weekend. The model has been infamous since January 2013 when it owned the other models at D5 on a split trough at leading to a blizzard. Might this be its summer equivalent? Would expect the ECM to follow very, very soon if it's right, though.

UKV is still looking alright for most areas of southern England. If it was believed then there would be a second round of activity on Friday evening and night.

I think there’s scope for another plume in the mid range?!...sooner than anyone would dare hope for but it’s certainly not the form horse! ? ...there’s quite a few GEFS 12z members toying with the idea of another influx of hot continental air, but only a few get close!..however, the longer term GEFS 12z mean into the last third of June has settled potential with some members turning anticyclonic!...in the meantime, if you’re a storm lover, good luck for Thursday, although cape looks crap on our side of the channel, it’s explosive across parts of the near continent as they will again be scorching at that time.... ⛈ ...there’s always a chance when you play the slot machine! summer 2021...please don’t lose your MOJO!!

It happened once I think. Might have been the end of July 1886.

Still no real low pressure intrusion by day 7 on UKMO this morning: Day 10 GFS - Still very warm across many areas: GEM day 10 - not as warm, but mainly settled: Before all of this though - things are going to go BANG. Thursday morning - Thundery trough moving up from France as well as a cold front moving in from the west. There is a Met Office storm warning out from 6pm Wednesday to 6am Friday:

NMM 12z for that matter, looking promising.

ECM You can see two main rounds, one is the main band coming up from a typical Plume position in in NW France and has probably the best chance of not becoming a Kent Clipper should it come off, the second round in mid-morning to early afternoon becomes evident on the model around six before spreading North but will probably be corrected further East by that time. GEM Again you can see the first round there at typical import timing towards midnight and the early hours of the morning, hitting London, the SE and East Anglia. It then moves into the North Sea with perhaps some more thundery showers lagging behind it. Eagle Eye

Those projected PWAT's are ridiculous! Could be some serious flooding issues.

From memory, yesterday’s Ukmo 12h ended pretty similar to this?? !..trend hopefully ?.. ...anyway, the Gfs 12z op precipitation charts etc for Thursday show some large rainfall totals and even though cape looks meh, there is still a risk of embedded storms being imported from the scorching near continent...nice to know that even though Brexit is done, the Europeans still throw a few storms our way!

Had intended to post this when I took it on the 6th. Probably just another scud but this did look for about 20/30 seconds like a very weak funnel over MK. I seem to get one or two that I have to double take or ask about every year. Very eager to see what this week brings.

I think the thunder risk is going to be more in the East. The problem is going to be rainfall.. if moisture levels are going to be as high as the PWAT's suggest, that could lead mainly to a mess of heavy rain.

UKV has shifted back a bit west, which is great news. If things stay like this and hopefully don't shift any more East than it could still be a good event for many.

Not sure what went on there, meant, would be great to happen at night

The pains of trying to work out the D4-D6 pattern are clear on the clusters today, but they seem almost unanimous that a less warm and less settled period will follow early next week, even if only for a few days. You can see by D5 (T120) the difficulties in dealing with the disrupted low to the west, and how close the east of the UK is to remaining in the very warm air up to this time (actual surface heat will depend on how much cloud/thunder gets mixed in and where) By D8, though, almost all ensembles push the trough through to the UK at last - just a chance on cluster 3 of the UK remaining on the warm side of the flow but can't see it being hot and sunny on any options. Good news for ice-cream vans is that the ECM provides many quick ways out of the UK low scenario. By D11, cluster 1 has pushed the trough back west enough for the UK to become a little more settled and warmer again, whilst cluster 3 (focussing on the anomaly colours, not the specifics of the lines) has carried on from cluster 3 at D8 in never allowing a UK trough to take a significant hold in the first place, and is suggestive of settled conditions being the main course throughout next week.

Definitely, a very decent thundery days Thurs-Fri-Sat on the UKV. Majority of the models actually have the thundery mass moving up through SW/CS England (E Devon/Somerset/W Dorset) on Thursday, whereas GFS/ECM/UKV with the latter less so, more across CS/SE England so still looking good in my eyes.

UKMO and ECM day 6/7 comparison. UKMO much keener to split a cut off low down over Iberia, which allows pressure to build over the top. ECM drops this straight through the UK and keeps it more unsettled.

Nice to see Thursday's excitement still looking on. And the rest of the GFS 00z shows just why a slightly positive pressure-anomaly to our west doesn't necessarily result in a predominantly cool northerly flow: Is that an incoming cool northerly, I see?!

It’s now the time when I get anxious for every new model output . Stop bloody shifting around and making me nervous

What a picture from above the storm. C.S

So, a lot going on during the next three-four days, but, after next weekend it all goes haywire; and talk of 23C T850s would suggest that'll be the case? As for the HP out west, or is it north -- yet more uncertainty -- who knows? And the 'cold' air way up north? Does that really look potent enough to displace all that heat over Europe?

If you are sick to the back teeth of the recent heat, then relief to more pleasant temperatures is on the way: Not turning cold for most by any stretch, just something closer to the average for late June. High teens/low twenties instead of mid to high twenties.

WRF NMM 5KM coming into range and shows circa 1000 J/Kg coming into the SE quadrant early hours of Thursday. While it chops and changes between runs, I find this model at this range to be one of the best indicators for storm risk, particularly within 24 hours of an event. Lets keep our fingers crossed for something.

Weather station recorded a high of 27C at 17:57, at that time wind speed of 0mph. Very uncomfortable 24C at 8pm and dog walk wasn’t very enjoyable. Particularly as the darling boy found some fox spoor to roll in He’s been showered with ‘guaranteed to get rid of unpleasant odour’ fox spoor shampoo, the perfume of which is marginally less revolting that the stinky fox spoor itself. Important word here is marginally.... Harness and collar washed, ditto towels and have just had prayers answered with a wee breeze while hanging them on the line. House is unbearably hot so sitting in the garden with a cup of tea with a more pleasant temperature of 22C, wind ENE 2 mph. 10 minute average 1.6 mph; 2 min average 1.5mph. Humidity currently 72% from today’s max of 99% at 04:59. Pressure 1022.7hPa falling slowly. Because the house was clearly designed by a sadistic beast of an architect, with all bedrooms facing West and therefore impossible to sleep in on days like this, think I’ll stay outside for a while yet, watching the hedgehogs noisily drinking water and eating cat food.

As always as the event approaches models start correcting eastwards. Whilst a broader area of rain/embedded lightning is likely for areas further west, the main excitement looks to be focused towards the SE/eastern parts of East Anglia. East of green line = Heavy rainfall, possibly leading to localised flooding, gusty winds & some sporadic lightning, uncertain how electrified this part of the system will be. East of orange line = Highest threat of thunderstorms, possibly locally severe along the extreme S coast due to higher shear here, though overall shear over the UK isn't that impressive. Frequent lightning possible here, though PWAT values approaching 40mm makes the greatest concern rainfall & flooding.

If yesterday’s weather was disappointingly cloudy, at least it was a warm cloudy but today we couldn’t even manage the warm bit. Felt decidedly chilly today and even managed a couple hours of wet this morning whilst for our friends in the south, sunny and hot. Normal service is resumed.

Tomorrow mornings runs will start to give a better indication on where is likely to be hit. I’d expect during the evening of tomorrow is when we may start to see the first preliminary warnings issued, and hopefully some in depth forecasts and opinions by @staplehurst@Nick F @BrickFielder @Paul Sherman Etc. Always greatly appreciated. I may chase if necessary, but given that most runs have me getting a mullering currently, there may be no need.

Would imagine so based upon the NMM MUCAPE and DLS. NMM definitely keen on an MCS, feeding off the high theta-w/high instability off the continent.

Went to bed last night thinking we might see a bit of decent rain given the cold front though narrow was quite an intense line of precipitation on the radar just to our NW, alas it must have squeezed itself out when arrived because ground is bone dry. A very dry first half to June, just a trace of rain so far. Today another disappointing cloudy scene, and cool, max 17 degrees, hardly flaming June!

It did sound a bit......dodgy?

Nice sunny start to the day at 12c which makes it feel a lot fresher in the breeze.A bit of drizzle overnight but first signs of white clover growing faster than grass as soil dries out in the constant sun and wind. Spring barley and grass mostly looking very well but we have lost about 5% of the spring barley due to excessive cold (April) and wet (May) in the spring in prone sheltered areas mainly woods. Taking last of stones off newly sown neeps on Saturday we found an oyster catchers nest with one egg with the pair watching us at a distance. Not much hope of it making it to hatching with a badger highway just at the bottom of the field. A photo of a badger scrape which appeared overnight on the edge of a farm track They are dotted everywhere round the edges of fields on the farm

Yes this is the pivotal point in the summer, when the atmosphere tends to bed into its summer base state, usually around the solstice, signs are we will see the traditional reawakening of the atlantic with a revert back to the typical NW-SE divide with the dreaded south westerlies coming into play.. oh joy!

Just for those who maybe don't follow the model thread, we have a selection of charts from every run of the UKV available here: UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Extra subscribers can follow the same link to access the full range

Cool grey miserable day and to make matters worse covid restrictions extended for another 4 weeks! Not happy!

Driving to Norfolk on Friday evening, and with the latest UKV run, it would be incredible to drive along with what could be some juicy thunderstorms!

Cheers @Zak M,i might have to do a chase Fri when i finish work at 2pm,before that i will be in snoozy land as i am up at 5am every morning this week.

A markedly cooler day today than of late. No change to the advanced thunderstorm warning for Wed to Fri on the metoffice website. I expect that will be adjusted/fine tuned tomorrow. Regional forecast now mentioning risk of heavy thundery showers overnight on Wednesday night.

very accurate post that, cannot disagree!

I reckon if the UK was hit by an official hurricane for the first time ever known during the next week, there will at least 5 posters who won't make one comment on it but still be bombarding the COVID thread with posts......

Would like to see movement central to a line from Weymouth to Peterborough, this would wake me up in the night and keep me happy driving and working around Peterborough in my truck lmao. Guess we can all live in hope.

Like you just said, GFS and ICON models in a perfect place for most across Southern UK. Really looking to be an exciting day! Other models as well looking good... waiting for 12z ARPEGE. It will be exciting to see the AROME tomorrow

It has reached a glorious 29c today! And with the humidity lower of late here it doesn't feel that hot either really so it's glorious! I am one happy lady!

Long time (normally) a winter lurker. Would it be possible for one of you esteemed members to decipher the latest models and put some money on a forecast. I'm cycling from Kent to Somerset Saturday and need a dry tailwind. Sorry mods, it's raising money for the Royal British Legion. Thanks

Cold front has passed through with a few spits and spots of rain gone has the humidity to be replaced with some what fresher air perhaps fair to say it feels a tad chilly. C.S

Wow that looks like it shifted back to its original position from a couple of days ago!!

The ARPEGE and ICON runs still taking things further West, the rest seem to have settled on further East where places like London may still be in play, but that's only if we don't get any more shifts east....

That looks like a Northern Marsh Orchid (Dactylorhiza purpurella). I'm lucky in having two of them in our garden, both self-seeded. I've collected/sown the seed from them in previous years but nothing has come of them yet (the seed is like powder). They do live by their name as both plants are in the soggiest part of the garden (though it must be noted that the ground is not waterlogged, rather free draining but constantly moist). Couple of photos of them in situ, not the best as taken just now in the twilight. Beautiful plants, I do recall Dobbies selling them a few years ago at a millionaires price. Finally got some noctilucent clouds last night. By no way the best of displays, but still a lot better than the nought there has been up until now... As for today, a bit of a let down. The met et al forecast sunshine and highs around 25-26c. In reality, it was overcast from early morning with a stiff SW wind - so limiting the max to a still respectable 21.5c. Had to go into Aberdeen in the afternoon and it was sunny there, felt hot in the sun. It's not often you can say it felt hot in Aberdeen!

Is that 24c uppers in the SE!? If so, that is a very extreme chart and one which would likely send the all time June record packing! That would be truly unprecedented for June.

A mostly sunny afternoon here in a fresh breeze and my warmest day of the year with a max of 23.8C. A bit more cloud now to the West but still dry. Also anyone know what this flower is? Came across quite a few when walking through a field earlier and my wife wants some for the garden.