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Showing content with the highest reputation on 13/04/21 in all areas

  1. Hi gang ,charts all favourable for mostly dry weather and increasing warmth. I have been lurking about ,had a bad chest infection but now feeling better. I've not had Sausage Bap for over 3 weeks, but today i will indulge in 2 baps plus brown sauce πŸ˜‹, cheers gang ,STELLAS all round 🍺..
    20 points
  2. Just comparing the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z mean @ T+240 hours...they both look πŸ‘€ pretty good don’t they?..I realise this is broad brushstrokes and no doubt when we see the finer detail there will be some ripples in the water πŸ’¦ but essentially the outlook is predominantly settled! β˜€οΈ 😊
    9 points
  3. This is turning out to be an extremely dry April in most places, and theres hardly any rain in the outlook either as high pressure is set to dominate our weather for the next two weeks. We are well on course for a record breaking (or near) dry April. At least things should become less cold, and even warm if we can just get that ridge to nudge over to our East.
    8 points
  4. Looks like most of the rain will miss the southeast on that run. While it is good that the hp signal will result in a warming eventually the absence of rain will become an increasing issue for gardeners/growers i think....
    8 points
  5. GFS 0Z has a love affair with UK high pressure from the 21st to the 29th April, with air temperatures gradually rising through to the end of the run.... If high pressure does become a fixture over the UK at the end of April it bodes well for a warm start to May.
    8 points
  6. Here is the full ECM 0Z run showing 500s and 850s. High pressure is also seen close by the UK for most of this run and the cold air being squeezed out..... Could this be the spring board to Summer 2021....
    7 points
  7. Just out checking cattle disturbance and its already -3c .I suppose the high has taken over with cold air in place without any mild air from the Atlantic blowing it away so the cold spell continues.
    7 points
  8. GFS outdoor pub run. It is consistent with ECM and its ensembles, and there has to be a transition to summer at some point and I think we are at it, by day 8 or so of course, T192: From then on is the key point, does this pattern gain traction or not, because that is the important thing for summer, if this holds for a while it could impact SSTs in the Atlantic and set up the summer, but it has a way to go with the SSTs, cold at the moment on run in to UK (from Atlantic). So longevity of this spell is important, I think, to build the scenario both atmosphere and SSTs to s
    7 points
  9. Took Mrs Northernlights to Elgin at lunchtime for her jab today and even on the A96 there were patches of snow still lying next to shaded north facing woods. Roads had white dry salt like dust blowing off them reminicent of a day in late February and the countryside less green than it was two weeks ago. Couple of fields of winter rye which had been about 6 inches high looking very sorry for themselves after the frost. On a positive note our spring barley is just breaking the surface this afternoon.
    7 points
  10. The GEFS 12z mean indicates a predominantly settled outlook as these charts suggest, very broad brushstrokes with a mean but as the mean represents the average, on balance it does look like high pressure (s) will be the main feature during the next few weeks..so...variable cloud / sunshine / temperatures..BUT not much rain apart from occasionally across the far NW..for most it looks predominantly fine with just a few showers dotted around until the high becomes stronger, chilly and cloudier near / on the east coast but that should also change as the position / orientation of the anticyclone u
    6 points
  11. A mostly dry outlook for the whole country up until the weekend where low pressure to the west may bring some rain into western and northwestern areas atleast so Scotland northern Ireland and parts of Wales before weakening.. even though the projected weather can change a lot a week away during early next week high pressure will move in from the west into many areas and by midweek it is likely to be over most or all of the country. high pressure likely to continue to be across much of the country later on next week but probably at the moment moving just to our east
    6 points
  12. Day started off with wall to wall blue skies but clouds coming over from the north once again. Currently 11.6c, up from an overnight low of -3.3c. I am so over this cold weather now and just want to get some heat although not much chance to get out in it as our office, along with the 22 other area offices in our organisation, are fully ensconced in IACS form filling for over 8000 farmers throughout Scotland. All would be well if the Rural Payments website speed would cope with the number of agents and farmers trying to access it at the same time. The only upside of cold, showery weather
    6 points
  13. Down to -4c again at 6.00am this morning but blue sky and sunshine compensation now.
    6 points
  14. I think a decent early summer is not out of the equation. There seems to be a fairly consistent signal for troughing around the UK in July though. Hoping this translates to some decent convection. GLOSEA going cool and unsettled later in summer CFS and its omnipresent July trough
    6 points
  15. Still felt like a day in late winter, but we did manage to raise the max temperature to 6.5c, so the warmest it has been for quite a few days. Must have been some heavy snow showers overnight as everything was white first thing, soon melting in the sun. Cloud bubbled up from mid-morning onwards leading to the lightest of hail showers in the late afternoon. Not a bad day overall, especially if you were in the sun.
    6 points
  16. As we are now on the cusp of mid spring (meteorologically) speaking, these charts from the GEFS 12z mean look jolly decent to me, Scandi high, Scandi / Azores high link up.....it could be worse?...although this weeks high isn’t quite strong enough to prevent a few showers here and there, it’s still decent as there should be some pleasant sunny spells although nights still look chilly but we should see temperatures for some of us gradually recovering to average during the second half of this week which would make for more pleasant surface conditions for many. β˜€οΈ 😊
    6 points
  17. Blue skies all day here until a few clouds bubbled up in the late afternoon. First double figure max for some time at 10.5C ans with lighter winds felt much warmer than of late after a low this morning of -2.8C. Looking like another cold night to come. The fair weather clouds did allow for a decent sunset.
    6 points
  18. Overnight low of -2.1c and just scraped a double digit max of 10.1c. Light winds, oodles of sunshine. All in all a very useable day ending with a lovely sunset.
    5 points
  19. Early mornng sun picking out a tinge of green across the spring barley fields in spite of the frosty morning.
    5 points
  20. Lovely start again. The field at the back was white with frost but the sun has zapped it and temps are on the rise.
    5 points
  21. 5 points
  22. ECM mean at T240: And that is really all there is to say, the clusters have only one, from the outset to deep FI. Sometimes that can mean excessive uncertainty, but with this I think it means pretty much that this pattern will hold for a while. And a gradual warm up now.
    4 points
  23. Thank the Lord the GEFS 12Z operational run is at the cold end of the pack:πŸ€”
    4 points
  24. perfect spring weather here wall to wall sunshine ..frosty mornings warm afternoons..doesn't get any better than this 😎
    4 points
  25. No need to crack out the old Zak-O-Vision specs just yet, then!
    4 points
  26. Morning all, I don't often post on this thread but thought I'd add my thoughts: Assuming most here don't want continued cold, I'd say it's all eyes on the low beginning of next week. Firstly it'll stop a big build in the Atlantic. Then it'll encourage the high pressure behind it to topple. Once you have toppling high pressures with lows sent towards iceland, we can expect more seasonal and warmer weather!
    4 points
  27. Not for the faint-hearted The crappy end of farming. Depressing breakfast reading really, good job the sun's shining.
    4 points
  28. Yes .... it’s not completely dry. Here’s the GFS rainfall gif covering the 19th and 20th April..... Its a bit too far out to be accurate though, and I expect this will be different by next weekend.
    4 points
  29. Max of 9 degrees, min of -3 degrees, returning a mean of 3 degrees! Very cold for April, and we've had a run of similar means for about 8 days now, sometimes lower.. colder than many a week in winter!
    4 points
  30. Here's a timelapse of a thunderstorm that I captured from last night, passing by near Bedford. 24324.mp4
    4 points
  31. Here's a short video of yesterdays storm: Some other images from during the day: And a cool timelapse of the storm decaying as it passed by: 24324.mp4
    4 points
  32. Fifty ninth air frost at -3.6 last night. Decent day up to 9.6Β°C this afternoon then pouring with the rain just now. Dry earlier this evening and I spotted a kitten in a barrel.
    3 points
  33. This morning was mainly overcast, which developed into light rain at lunchtime and then returned quickly to overcast, then, by mid-afternoon the cloud started breaking up and some sun got through. It's now heading back to overcast. I feel we've been overly overcast today. Temperature reached a maximum of 10.9deg.C at 17:27 up from a minimum of 0.0deg.C at 06:03, humidity is 75%, wind is a very light southerly, pressure is 1034.0hPa steady, there's been 0.2mm of rain today and cloud cover is 7/8.
    3 points
  34. That's very similar to the April 1986 CET (5.8C). It's a very tall order - we're currently running at 5.6C, 1.2C below the 1961-90 average for the first 12 days of April. If that anomaly was maintained in the second half of April we'd end up on 6.7C, which would make it easily the coldest April since 1989, but not up there with April 1986. Also, the model outputs are increasingly agreeing on a warm up around Sunday/Monday - OK, not as warm as many on here would like, but allowing for the GFS's typical underestimations of daytime maximum temperatures there's strong support for daytime hi
    3 points
  35. Decent run from ECM 12z. T120 has the high to our east with ridge from the Azores, but then corrects to a UK high by T240. Uppers not that bad, so chance to develop some home grown heat with this scenario, T240: Wonder how this evolution sits in the clusters. Edit - no help at all from the clusters, just one cluster from T96 onwards.
    3 points
  36. Well at last the gfs 12z gives us a little hope compared to the 6z Not getting carried away here but are we seeing a break in this cold patten? Ens will be of interest later...🀞
    3 points
  37. Interesting Arctic blast at t276 on the 06 gfs
    3 points
  38. Such a shame for some of the ski resorts - decent Spring conditions once again. Spring 2020, Winter 2020/21 and now Spring 2021 have all delivered the goods - weather wise. Hopefully similar weather for Winter 2021/22 - we can all then enjoy it again! Glencoe currently: Webcams - Glencoe Mountain Resort WWW.GLENCOEMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Click to refresh the page Click a thumbnail to view larger webcam view or scroll down for slideshow. Mountains outlook: Home Page MWIS.ORG.UK Planning Out
    3 points
  39. Total whiteout conditions here now.. this is crazy...snaw snaw snaw..❄❄❄
    3 points
  40. Oh yes, oh yes, OH YES!!! ECM mean looking brilliant @240. Just a shame that it's ten days away and will chop and change.
    2 points
  41. A warming trend showing up on the GFS 12z ensembles as we head into next week showing temps into the mid-teens widely with plenty of dry weather.β˜€πŸ“ˆπŸ‘ Damaging frost risk remains unfortunately.❄
    2 points
  42. I don't think @Zak M is complaining about the storms last year... πŸ˜‚ I on the other hand, have definitely got something to complain about with more or less nothing all year. Here's another webcam picture of a shower passing Southampton just now. I only post them as my view at home isn't great and it the cams I get these pictures from are effectively an extra window to me with a much better view.
    2 points
  43. Small band of rain out to the west but staying away from us for now if we do get any shouldn't be that bad (clouded in after another clear start)
    2 points
  44. About 9.50am it looked like it was going to kick off but never got going
    2 points
  45. The 16-day outlook from NOAA for precipitation and temperature. Going on the flavour of the ECM and GFS over the last few days, scratching my head as to where as much as 25 mm for parts of Ireland is going to come from over the next 8 days. I’m assuming the 5-7.5mm for the hills of Northern England and Wales fell earlier today. More rain expected for England and Wales in the second week. The temperature chart optimistically shows a warm-up to near average for the UK for the second week, typically 2-4 degrees higher than the first week, away from the Northern Isles, supported
    2 points
  46. I've been busy moving house for the last few days so haven't been keeping up much with the model outputs, but certainly there's been a big shift over to the high pressure scenario since I last looked. There's still potential for some scattered showers, wintry in central and northern areas, tomorrow with an upper level cold pool and the high pressure proving slow to build, but by Wednesday the high pressure should be strong enough to kill off the showery activity. The positioning of the high and surface winds will be important, for if the high drifts to the north and pulls in an easterly
    2 points
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