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Whats not to like? Exceptional warmth with temps in the 20s followed by a potent northerly (a rare beast these days) which would almost certainly give lying snow for many. A proper spring switcharound which ironically for here would see a record high March max followed by a record low April max within a week. After the last boring few weeks its great to see some 'weather' on offer!

We can't brush off that day or 2 of warmth your correct..but likewise we can't brush off a screaming Ntly with possible -10c uppers a few days later! I hope you have your factor 10 ready for that warm and sunny day,but then your factor 20 ready for the freeze up withthe sun reflecting off the snow a few days later!! Bit like a skiing Holiday this Amazing sypnotics guys just like the good old days.

GFS 6z is a stonker. And by the way @Scorcher the -10c uppers slamming across the whole country with heavy snow showers and significant accumulations in the North in April is quite rare.

HERE'S WINTER!!!!!!!!

If only it would get to T0 and there was an oh yes response and the country blanketed in heavy snow.

WTF last April I had the paddling pool out. Will been some brilliant skies if this where to come off convection galore

Easter monday ECM.

For sure there’s a very strong unseasonably wintry signal for early April according to the GEFS 6z mean / perturbations ️ ...small sample here, there were so many I couldn’t post them all....having followed this trend for some time I’m actually quite excited by the potential for a potent wintry blast early next month..if it downgrades, so be it (I’m used to downgrades)..but to me it’s a win win situation at this time of year with the clocks about to go forward in the early hours! ? anyway....I’m going to enjoy the enhanced spring / almost summer like warmth and unbroken sunshine early next week and then let the chips fall where they may..!!

GFS 06z was the coldest/wintriest run I’ve ever seen for this late it is one for archives. Doubtful it will happen but models are playing with unusually potent -NAO regimes even for spring. First week of April is looking to start seriously below average.

1105MB Greenland high on that GFS 12z op between T180-T186. Fair to say that would be a new record if it came off

-6c mean engulfing the UK with -8c the North, the tide beginning to turn back in our favour again at long last, more runs between -10c and -15c than at any point during winter ironically. The 'only in winter' brigade would be salivating at the mouths if this was in early January. A god few go between -15c and -17c in Northern Scotland.

Maybe because it's just a 30h warm spell? Blink and you'll miss it. In addition, children have Easter holidays, everything is still closed and on Tuesday the parks will be packed. Good luck with that. The cold spell it's not well in FI, it's consistently in every single run since 3 days ago with some variations.

Bonkers GFS ensemble number 16.

So where are we today? Immediate prospects a change to very mild, locally warm conditions through early part of the new week, thanks to a pulse of warm uppers from the SW in association with a strong ridge of heights out of Iberia. However, changes are taking place upstream, and we have significant amplified flow developing off the eastern seaboard. End result warm air advection through west Atlantic enabling a strong ridge to develop over mid Atlantic. The Iberain ridge is quickly kicked to touch by these greater forces, and we end up quickly on the colder side of the polar front jet, with mid Atlantic heights and cold air advection out of the arctic on their eastern flank. A big switcharound forecast mid week, the models thereafter showing a cold Easter period throughout, possibly very cold. I'm alarmed by the depth of cold being shown on some if the models, sub -15 uppers into far north, GFS 6z showing sub 510 dam air 6 April, quite exceptional stuff! All conjecture at this timeframe, attention is turned to how warm it becomes Tuesday first.. After weeks of very quiet uninteresting weather, we have a very interesting period ahead.

Certainly doesn't represent a usual April snow row / uppers graph, blimey with the exception of 18 and this winter just gone, we would have taken this in any winter since 13!

Yes just like the good old days.Always plan to have enough feed to keep cattle in till middle of May but recent years seem to make that unnecessary.Old traditional farm tenacies always started and finished on 31st May with the sowing of crops continuing into May. Also most of Scotland is closer to the Arctic circle than Moscow so spring snow fall was very common. A very traditional spring coming up.Warmth probably around the 20th of April when the swallows arrive and the geese depart My own opinion is that we have returned to slightly more traditional seasons in the last 12 months with the lack of air and ground based pollution. The brown ring of pollution observed at the edge of earths atmosphere has probably gone (just like in the few days after 9/11 ) to be replaced with a white ring. Based on the above my hope for the summer is one of three fine days and thunderstorm so something for everyone

Yes, the synoptics currently being shown on the models and in particular the latest ECM are , even for spring , pretty amazing in my opinion. Although i dont have the historical knowledge of others in relation to these things, the ecm goes from almost having plus 10 850s on 30th March over the south east to minus 10 850s over almost the whole country by Monday 5th April: a change of 20 degrees. In addition this is some long fetch northerly being lined up.. Tracing the isobars it goes from the the other side of the artic almost down to the south of spain... Whether you like it hot or cold these synoptics are pretty interesting to say the least...

If I remember rightly, early April 1968 saw something just like that? Again, so long as memory serves, it was 21C on the Monday, and snowing on the Wednesday morning. In Milton Keynes! PS: Also had 15cm of snow late on April 11 1978!

Time for coffee

To my untrained ? ? tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean seems a bit further east than the operational at the end?..meh, don’t care...just kidding coldies! at least it’s a hot topic! ..

Here she comes again - carbon copy of last few x output runs!

Anywho, it's good to see those >20Cuppers building nicely!

Quite normal to see such synoptics in April and May, indeed more likely in those months than any other time of year. Northern blocking very common in late Spring.

Surprised no one is posting about the warm spell coming early next week. The proper cold air is still well in FI. Tuesday could be the warmest March day for many of us since at least 2012. Reaching 70F in March is quite rare outside the SE and looks possible for us in NW England.

If only there were a 'Oh, no!' response.

Wow if the ECM backs any further west it’s a warm southerly at day 10!...as I said earlier, downgrades don’t bother me at all at this time of year onwards..if it was winter I would be upset if this is the new trend but it isn’t..we are well into spring now with the clocks about to spring forward..

Potent potent.. potent.. it’s an alarming lot of synoptics.. April or otherwise.. the arctic is literally spilling our way... wow the contrasting sequences other the nxt 12 days is something to behold...amazing stuff right now!!!!.. .. just dropping these in....

Am I missing something here? The 850s don't get near -10 in England do they? Christ we couldn't even get snow of an E'ly in January with -5 or -6 uppers! It's certainly going to get chilly but is it going to get that cold? Happy to stand corrected (said the man with the orthopaedic shoes) if someone wants to put me right MetO doesn't look all THAT special. Not pleasant but I'm not sure there'll be polar bears in Bedfordshire on the back of this!

I cant remember ever in my life seeing such high pressure signalled for greenland as with gfs12z. 1090mb + The artic monster is heading our way... What is going on ? Its enough to make you scream....

They do look very similar indeed. Makes me wonder what it would've been like if we got this cold spell in January. Historic I'd say. Either way, I can't remember ever seeing synoptics like this in April. One to remember!

Everyone has covered most of the output this morning . Some of the cold being predicted is mental . Look at this from the Gem -15s into Scotland

24 hours down the line and everything is moving towards the gfs.

To my eyes, and I might be very much mistaken, the UKMO looks a lot closer to the GFS this morning ?

GFS 00z

Give over- I'm interested in meteorological anomalies full stop. Extremes at either end. As for daffs, I've seen fewer in bloom here than previous years? Though far removed from 2013. I seem to remember more fascination with brown, tinder dry grass by people in 2018! People were lapping it up, saying how 'Mediterranean' it looked!

But convection is far deeper now, than it ever is in January, so downdraughts can bring snow down to far lower levels, than what the T850s might suggest... Okay, it's all gone within 5-minutes, but who's complaining?

Watching the models for a long time and GFS in my view tends to outperform ECM when it comes to developments over Greenland..

What strikes me about this Easter cold spell, is how consistently it is appearing on the models at +T240. It has been clearly signalled at that range for a couple of days now on the ECM clusters. Contrast with when this sort of thing shows up in January or February, it is never as consistent (unless following a favourable SSW) is it? And of course, they don’t usually happen anyway. Maybe that’s the lesson, but we need to wait a week to see if this one is for real. Snow is possible in April, just needs to be a direct hit of the cold air, this one looking better for those in the north and Scotland, of course, but it could affect the whole country. In the meantime, I look forward to the first feeling of summer warmth on Tuesday/Wednesday:

Remarkable contrasts possible in the coming 10 days. Sky news suggesting the March temperature record could go early in the week (I don't think so, 23-24C is what I expect). Then, within days, snow chances for all, and potentially as brutal as you can get for an April cold spell. I wonder what the record minima is for April?

If this was winter, we’d be praying those cold charts came off. They have no place in April though - yuk.

Indeed, it will make it feel all the more cold later in the week, thanks to the brief warm up, proper shock to the system! Mind you, cold enough out today on the bike, that wind has some bite!

It’s akin to a 48 hour toppler in winter when a Bartlett has cross model agreement at day 7.

Your memory is correct although mine was slightly out in the White Easters thread as it was the first week of April with some snow lying till Easter on the 14th April.It snowed most nights through that first week and topped up any areas that melted a bit during the day with icicles forming in the late afternoon from the roofs.

I think @Weather-history sums it up well for many of us.

You can't rush these things And ECM //

I had a little chuckle at this chart. 20C in London while its just 3C in Lancashire at 18:00.

Interesting that the GFS 18z has cold air over the uk for the first 10 days of April with the minus ten 850s getting down to the south on two or three occasions. This would be quite some cold spell if it verifies. As others have said if it had been in January or February we would have been looking at a pretty severe spell. As it is it could still be very lively with increased solar radiation...

It's a beauty

NE'ly incoming- taking the coldest track pretty much

A Sneeky warm up next week for some?..but the overall trend and talking point is how cold it's going to get next week...!