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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/02/21 in all areas
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Coldies might like this...... the anomaly charts do not support the rapid breakdown some op runs are currently suggesting. And Atlantic breakdown doesnt look likely until later next week, if at all...might be fun watching them try though, the west could get a dumping.. But this chart suggests high pressure holds on until at least after next wednesday. So expect a cold, mainly dry, raw feel to the weather in the stronger breezes. But this chart is not a mild one and the extended chart isnt much different. With a strong block to our North, a re-load of the Beasterly is certainly a possibility, albeit low atm.36 points
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Mine would be for it to get in stall and then get pushed back west by the cold29 points
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Wee video from about an hour ago 20210209_185407(1).mp426 points
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The NetWx mr Model is certainly showing the colder air winning out as the front coming in off the Atlantic during the weekend only makes it to Ireland then shifts North and fizzles out clearing the way for High Pressure to push North behind, The weekend looks to have some of the coldest temps of this cold spell so far with a bitting S/Ely wind chill. Yes Tim, The GFS is very good at finding long range patterns and near always the other models eventually follow suite bringing in the detail and by detail I mean a shift West or East 200ml of the High pushing North makes a massive difference to what we get at the surface..23 points
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Oh my, 21 pages of posts since last logging in. I think Easterlies have strong r with Scottish Regional posts. Great Effort, and easily the best selection of pictures and videos around to represent things.20 points
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Been pretty constant here all afternoon apart from one 10/15 minute break. Went for a walk down to and round the Riverside Recreational Park replicating a walk I did on 1st March 2018 in similar conditions. If anything more snow now though none of the big drifts that were there in 2018. Not anything like as much as early Dec 2010 yet but getting there. Path by my car was cleared at lunchtime. Looking for the swans in the pond(they are away to open water is suspect) caught a car skidding off the road on Riverside Drive the main road into the town centre from the West.19 points
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This cold snap is far from over. today is only Tuesday. My side of the pond, our Met Office are far from convinced that this cold snap will or be over at the weekend, they are still talking about the possibility of the cold holding onto the East with snow until at least Sunday . If this mild weather does break through, it will be the very south west of the UK that will become mild briefly. More twist and turns to come before we see a clearer picture of what’s going to happen just because some models switch overnight doesn’t mean the cold or winter is over19 points
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Edo I just want to thank you... I was very sceptical about this one, due to the very many disappointments we've had over the past few years. This doesn't quite make up for all of those, but it's pretty much the best snowfall here since 2010 and I am kinda hoping we get a bit more overnight too I hope everyone is enjoying the snow if you have it and if you don't, I know exactly what that's like too!18 points
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Snowy Garden in Shirley, Croydon ❄❄❄ Snowy Garden_Croydon 09.02.2021.mp418 points
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Another rare day of sunshine and snow showers in the East Neuk (and St Andrews). Now have 8cm on the ground in Pittenweem which is very respectable and has only been surpassed three times in the last 15 years (and not by much!). Showers look like they are starting to peter out to my east but might sneak another one or two! Max temperature today was 2c and minimum -0.7c.17 points
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A picture paints a thousand words. Great video showing current conditions in Braemar.17 points
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A very complicated breakdown on the GFS 06 hrs run. Really this is a high wire act , the upstream troughing becomes more elongated and it throws just enough shortwave energy through the Channel to keep enough cold at the surface , you can see that kink in the isobars and because of that there’s just enough se element to the flow ahead . So there are two frontal events with a mix of snow, freezing rain and rain . The first one runs ne and weakens and the second is what finally lifts out the surface cold . Its very messy but you can see how because of the embedded cold at the surface and the lower dew points to the east and se there’s still a chance of some interest during the breakdown. Hard to call this one as it’s very finely balanced !17 points
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This ECM is the exact reason why sometimes chasing snow and cold in an easterly away from the most favourable areas is very frustrating. What happens is we get a couple of convective days and the models originally show the block being underestimated with the Atlantic pushing it away. The block nearly always fights back across the next couple of days extending 'surface cold' and keeping areas where snow has fallen colder for longer. Everybody then cries 'upgrade', the cold is fighting back!!!!!!! etc. We celebrate upgrades far too easily in the UK. However, what has happened in this particular scenario and is more often than the case, is the block is remaining just strong enough to keep the Atlantic at bay, whilst dropping the convection and leaving most areas dry but cold. Because the block is then weakening and the disruption is poor, what we are left with from a cold spell is - a couple of favourable days of streamers for the east, most of the central/west remaining dry. This is then followed by a dry/cold spell with harsh frosts for most of the country and then as the block finally weakens enough to let the Atlantic in the block pulls away taking it's cold uppers/surface cold with it and as a front finally makes it across the UK - it either brings mild sectors, delivers snow to rain or in what is looking most likely is just ushering the Atlantic and milder weather in with it. In other words, most areas of the country end up looking east enviously and then misses any sort of snow event. I tried mentioning last week that it's no use/is NOT an upgrade for the block to hang around and 'fight back' if it's not going to let the Atlantic in far enough, or just into that jackpot territory where sliders make it to roughly Manchester north and Lincolnshire east before fizzling out into the block (see March 2013, modest set up - snowiest month in decades). 3 or 4 days of bone dry and frosty weather isn't what we should be aiming for in an 'upgrade' - it would be better for the block to relent, allow the Atlantic in a bit quicker and then see if we can favourably align a fresh block a week or so later. As it is, this week will just go down as another wasted week of winter for most areas of the country and the extra 5 days or so of 'nothingness' is more time eaten away towards the silent mod thread chore of spring/summer. I'm pretty sure @Catacol spoke words of truth a few days back when he said Macro scale patterns had been very good for the UK this year, but micro scale and the complete lack of a genuinely widespread snow event (note, not streamer or localised slider event) has been so dismal for us. At no turn have we 'scraped' something out of nothing this year. It feels like such a waste of what may end up being the opportunity of the winter to get something notably snowy for the large majority in. Still, there's 6 week or so to go IMO - we really need to nail down a couple of snow events for this winter to not go down as the largest 'what could have been' winter in living UK memory. (Think how much has been in our favour this year).16 points
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There are an awful lot of Scots getting 'plastered' today!16 points
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