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Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction. Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except SW) and the Scandi HP will extend further W than currently modelled? Also could it be the following week sees even colder upper temps -15C.

Big shift in the medium and longer range EPS - significant northern heights back in the menu!

This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with potential to snow - anywhere. Would you bet against a trough forming in the north sea at some point? Or the front for Sunday extending west? Or the low passing by the south west being a lot more significant than it looks now? You wouldn't bet against any of these things. But now's when it really starts on the models.

Lol. ECM continues and increases the cold out to Thursday. Brilliant!

These charts are always 12 days away oh but wait we have this at T72

Still differences with the GFS and UKMO/GEM regarding less cold uppers moving west across the south , the latter two aren’t interested in that so still some uncertainty on that front . As for the breakdown that’s still 6 days out and a lot can change . The area to keep an eye on is between the shortwave to the north at day 6 and the upstream low to see if there’s a stronger push of better heights there . In terms of the obituaries being written for the event before it’s even begun , precip charts especially with convection are a waste of space .

I’m debating whether to call an emergency committee meeting of Cold Extension Members tomorrow ! You can see by tonight’s GFS how much of a westwards correction that made . Can we see this trend continue ?

Now if the 0z runs can pick up the baton then we could be seeing the mild squeezed out. This is better than the movies for us weather nuts.

Anyway back to the shorter more reliable time span, the chart below shows an interesting feature. That front across Southern Northern England could produce a prolonged snow event along the boundary zone as the very cold Arctic Continental flow undercuts. The fax charts seem to hold it in that location for at least 12 hours before sending southwards on Sunday. See what the outer parameter results from the snow computer shows later this morning. Yesterday , it did flag up that zone. Could be an interesting day for snow predictions for this weekends event to unfold. Think quite an intense cold spell to evolve for you guys. How long ? Should get an update later from the team. Good morning from a mild Alps. C

GEM looking more realistic. GFS is always progressive, and I think UKMO is a bit quick on the operational (would be nice to see the UKMO ens but we can't) GEM showing snowfall into the south west at dat 6 continuing into day 7 north of Somerset. The milder air does push through and moves the snow line further north on Saturday. I try not to be to IMBY in the thread, but seeing as we have had a lot of talk about the SE quadrant, thought i'd wave the flag for the south west. Still a long way to go with this, and as I have said before, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up with a sustained/renewed easterly feed before the milder Atlantic air gets established in any meaningful way.

After looking at that UKV run would expect the Meto to go Amber in an area covering Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent and Sussex and maybe as far west as Central London initially for the 1st Course taking us upto 2359 Sunday night. Then expect other warnings to crop up for Mon onwards next week. Oh and please can we not have too many bust posts when it's still raining tomorrow at 5pm as we know the transition will occur sometime between 8pm tomorrow evening and Midnight. Expecting some massive temp crashes probably of 6c in 6 hours Good luck everyone and good things come to those that wait

Super output again from the 0z, the ECM 0z op for example adds a bit more longevity to the very cold spell, hopefully the breakdown to milder will keep being pushed back!...anyway, enough about breakdowns, we are now on the cusp of a proper cold spell with easterly winds, ice days, sharp frosts, snow showers, even some more persistent snow, drifting, high wind-chill..etc..etc..I’m very happy! ️

Can we steer this away from covid please, many people come into the weather threads to escape that subject and we have a dedicated area for discussing it elsewhere. Thanks.

The reason it tries to show the streamer going to rain is less cold dew points but not worth worrying about currently, more positive that they are now starting to show up that is a fantastic flow for here

To give a taster of what may be coming. Here are a couple of pics from the Southern Central Highlands. The one in the dark from early this morning and the other from yesterday afternoon.

UKV 15z has shifted the Sunday prec a bit north, with some sizeable totals showing and signs of long reaching streamers.. For the following days, lots of showers packing into the east and quite widespread snow cover. Here's Monday as an example, but Tues and Weds follow suit with snow totals building. And hints of some snow moving up into southern areas on Tuesday as well.

If you have snow on the ground the ECM gives you longer to play in it ! The surface flow becomes more continental the further east you go by day 8. We might well see some westwards corrections aswell . The NH pattern is on the change also , with interesting developments upstream . This looks like a response to the MJO.

When I see 2 areas of amplification with a weak trough in between at that kind of timeframe, then it is easy to envisage a slightly different amplification scenario with a little tweaking. So, better amplification nearer the UK, or to our west, then we have a Scandi high and not an EST Europe block.

A friend up in Strathdon at 390m reports the blowing snow continues. Although a tractor did manage to make it up the road for the first time in several days. Hoping to ski out to them and drop off some essentials tomorrow so will report back!

Of all the models to follow during any attempted breakdown the GFS is most definitely not the one to follow . This model will always try and take too much energy ne rather than east or se.

Am I the only one who thinks that the UKMO day 6 chart is decent? Significant wedge over Scandinavia. Also, for fwiw the ICON is cold throughout. The models have a bias to be progressive when encountering a pool of cold air. Anything after day 5 should be treated with a truck load of salt!

If GfS is starting to disrupt against the cold block then there must be hope of further improvements.

I don’t post often, but a long time lurker, going back to BBC snow watch days. Only thing I’ll add is that over the years, Dec 2010 as an example, once the cold is entrenched the break down is always delayed. Back in 2010 I remember the models breaking it down after 4/5 days, then it’s extended etc etc. In the end it lasted a month. Granted it wasn’t a snow fest every day, but the cold held out. As long as this spell evolves as shown then I’d be surprised to see any break down making it much further than skirting the south before cold reasserts itself. The models are always to quick to break cold spells down.

If only I was allowed to drive here to test the winter tyres.

Sorry it simply cannot do that. The upper air pattern associated with it, various factors there, are going to cause it to begin to stagnate before long, after making some ENE/NE movement. Aside from that is the question that is likely to have even more effect on it, that of the milder Atlantic air being unable to break through the denser cold air ahead of it.

Red warning out for Monday . . . . . . If only

The beast from the east Part 2 .

One more update on my forecast for next week. Moved the "snow sun/mon" line further south in accordance with ARPEGE/AROME. Accepted the likelihood of milder air pushing in later in the week on GFS + others, though still time to revert back to more of a slider scenario!

Many experienced people spend a lot of time trying to do just that, it is an incredibly complex factor to sort, be that on a local scale or globally for any of the models-believe me, honestly.

So ECM and UKM give the vast bulk of of us 5 full days from Sunday a spell of sub zero maxes and snow chances. GFS four days. I'm ok with that.. live in the moment

The latest NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 is now out. Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV It suggests, on its 8-14 chart, to me, that some kind of upper ridge and probably a surface high close by beneath it in the Greenland area. The major upper trough is SW of the UK and any surface feature is probably going to be in the area at the bottom of the trough, not far, perhaps, from the fairly small -ve anomaly in heights. Just what the actual surface flow might be is not easy to decide. It is possible that they may position in such a way as to keep much of the country cold rather than mild!

The low has given up at T156 hrs , it will now become slow moving , also note the shortwave ejected se at that time .

Decent amount of sna on the ground now but dogs’ paw prints show how wet it is compared to what we had last weekend. Loving the orange sky too, it’s full of promise.

Day 6 has the opportunity to be a bit of a wow .....will it take it ???

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?

Well. Pouring rain and strong winds at around 3C. Where have I seen that before this week? Last nights (temporary) slight rise in temps have caused more problems on the roads. This time flooding in areas where the snow is banked up at the roadsides. Higher up still snowing away as in second pic at around 350 mtrs asl. . The A93 is somewhere in the third picture.

An interesting question, I'm just about to post the 500 mb anomaly charts, and they, to me, do suggest that the 'cold' is likely to end the following weekend. So some 10-12 days ahead. the charts, especially those from NOAA, are not often wrong but I do prefer to see a 'run' of at least 2-3 days before I feel confident in the upper air pattern being what they show. Today is the first time all 3 are suggesting the return of the Atlantic. They are supported though by the ECMWF charts I've started to use. At the moment I would say, if I was a betting man (I'm not!), about 40-50% likely. Anyway below is the text to go with these charts Anomaly charts Friday 5 February Ec –gfs and noaa Both show a stronger atlantic flow into the uk and from s of west. Noaa shows similar especially its 8-14 chart, and the exit of the n’ern portion of this flow over the eastern atlantic is diffluent which suggests lows running quickly along the atlantic then deepening, on current charts, about 20 west, thus turning ne off, most of the time, nw Scotland? This would imply milder air over much of the UK. However, models are no better at predicting cold break downs than we were before the advent of computers. Cold air is dense to milder air (less dense) finds it not easy to move it. Time will tell, as ever! sorry my pc, for some reason, has stopped letting me run more than one window at once, so will post the links as I can http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Well had high hopes of awaking to huge drifts this morning but the heavy dry snow of yesterday changed to sleety snow yesterday evening but at 230am on a peer outside it was proper drifting snow.... early walk with the mad hound at 7am driving wet snow. Wet snow depths over the wellies in places and some deeper drifts but pretty disappointing soggy mess in places. That said optimistic that the driving wet snow will gradually get its act together today... temperatures hovering 0.4C . Just a bit higher up the hills I would think there will be severe drifting but far too extreme conditions to venture higher.

The UK (and Ireland) is on the cusp of a cold spell and potentially very snowy spell of weather, as east winds spread south across the whole of the country this weekend. With winds in the east, it's the eastern side of the country most likely to see what could be some substantial falls of snow, but this doesn't rule out snow in other regions. Please continue to discuss the upcoming spell, its longevity and even what may come beyond it, but only in the context of the model output in this thread. For more general cold weather chat we have opened up a dedicated thread for this period: February Cold Spell Discussion and Chat It's obviously a busy time currently, so it's really important we all make an effort to ensure that the posts we're making are on topic and in the relevant thread, so please do have a read of the rules of engagement below. Also, particularly during the times we're currently living in, emotions can run a bit higher than usual and what may seem like a throwaway comment or a gentle putdown to some can be really magnified for others. So please bear that, along with the fact that some are going through some really tough times in mind, and try to keep the mood in here friendly, kind and respectful of others views. Thanks, and happy model watching! **Model thread rules of engagement** As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly

And if you want to see what 50cm looks like this is Braemar today and they are expecting loads more Amazing Snowfall in Scotland this winter

That model thread is so depressing you would think we weren't staring down the barrel of a bitterly cold week with snow for many! So many whingers its dry here its all breaking down blah blah blah even from posters in areas which I think will do extremely well from this setup! If you're not happy with 4/5 ice days and the potential for some snow and your based in the UK you may as well give up as you will never be happy! Just going to stick with this thread I think. Proper weather talk in straightforward language from proper Yorkshire folk! Anyway enough of that T-24 and counting for the start of the fun and games! ❄?

Afternoon, sorry a bit late with an update. The team have provided the results for the outer parameters from the snow forecasting computer. The fine mesh model is unable to provide depth as far out as the British Isles but flags up snow prospects and locations for SE Britain. Snow prospects good across the Southern Half of Northern England , especially Saturday evening into early Sunday. The band of snow then focused further Southeast during Sunday. Monday appears to show convective snow shower activity quite widely across much of Eastern Britain with some extending further west. Tuesday could be the surprise day as their charts indicate some sort of disturbance in the flow from the Low countries with snow prospects being flagged up more widely for a time ( Humber to IOW ). All in all good prospects for some snow for many but surprises can occur almost anywhere. Longer term, a swift removal of the Ac to a more maritime air type likely to be less progressive across the north. However, thats still some days off . Just enjoy the snow and real cold whilst its here, at least for you lot in blighty. C

ECM clusters starting to move towards more northern blocking - cluster 3 here would be very cold at D15 - heights to the north, locked in cold via low heights to the south. Cluster 1 could also go the same way. Moving towards maybe 40/60 in terms of a cold 2nd half of February now. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2021/02/05/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021020500_360.png

Oooh, look at all the white heading our way on Met O precip animation

Icy remnants in driving rain here at Port of Ness.High tide at 12:45pm so expecting a busy sea state from the ENE wind.+3c.The Clisham pass is just around the snow line at 200m.Council webcams captured this well.

To have a chance of that deep cold you need a stronger shortwave ejected at T156 hrs , you need that to head ese and help to develop lower pressure over central Southern Europe . A westwards correction is also needed and the Scandi high needs to be further north . So we’ve ordered that for tomorrow !

This is what I’m after...this was 11th and 12th February 2010. East Kent streamer set up shop and gave up to a foot in a day.

Fully expect an extension of amber warnings across large swathe of the region.. as the easterly inflow ebbs in and the rolling convection machine ramps up massively.. as illustrated via the 00z ecm @ 850hpas @850vents @500 geo pot!... impactual organised snow bands... and persistent snow showers region wide.. sweet spots well in excess of 10/15 cms ground accumulation........ edit.. I hope that was straight forward =understood by some!!!

You'd get just as accurate an estimate strapping crayons to a cat!