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Based on what I have seen of the model output these past few days I would like to make a few points. 1. Do not be surprised to see a slow shift to the south of the overall pattern over the next few days. 2. Keep an eye on any future snow events as low pressure moves across the UK. Very often we see these move S on successive runs. I have lost count of many snow events modelled for the N of England only to move that far S the precip does not even reach the S coast. 3. Even if the above does not occur in the reliable timeframe the overall trend from the models is to slowly push the PFJ further S.

Well not quite the deeper cold we had hoped for at this juncture, but I’m not quite sure why there is the despondency there is in here today. As far as I can see the second half of this week brings further opportunity from the N and W initially, then further chances just about anywhere of seeing some snow into next weekend - as always in slider-type scenarios there are bound to be winners and losers, with those further N in the UK probably feeling far more confident than those further S. However in the day 3-6 range I have often found over the years that models tend to underestimate the resilience of cold air and the level of heights across the northern hemisphere as a whole, so as others have mentioned, there is bound to be some further movement of this pattern yet. Anyone suggesting that the models have had a decent handle on this situation in the last 10 days have clearly been looking at wildly different ensemble suites to me, and we’re by no means done yet with the swings following the SSW and the subsequent (and still upcoming) further warmings

I too am wondering why theres so much despondency... just look at the current GFS and ECM runs for day ten... they are building significant blocking both over Greenland and Scandinavia, features which are either currently absent of weak/transient. Theres a run of Easterlies to our North, and the (addmitedly) vigorous jet stream is still tracking south of the UK. All this is consistently predicted now to happen before the months out. The trend is good for cold. Not sure why some people are thinking the SSW has failed or will continue to fail. Those (sorry for the cliche) building blocks, are expected to be in place. It really wouldnt take much of a seismic shift for all that proper cold to arrive at our doorstep although we may have to wait until next month. IMHO theres no pattern change to lasting mild, but perhaps a stormy changable mobile pattern with plenty of very cold snowy incursions if not a Big Freeze itself.

Just a timely note of caution when viewing the model runs... Today has shown once again how difficult it is to predict timings and positions of systems and fronts. The front that has moved in from the Atlantic today has done so with great pace, already cleared much of the UK. Models were suggesting a slower affair, and as ever a nowcast situation. Temperatures here are a couple of degrees lower than currently forecast, reason due to the front moving through quicker and a greater dig of polar maritime air. There is still ice and patches of snow around, indicative of the fact uppers are still relatively cold. I'm saying all this just for those who hang onto each run, always expect what actually happens to outsmart the models. With this, I'm not commentating much on the minutiae of the models at present, just sticking to looking at overall trends and themes. These haven't changed for quite some time, it remains a chaotic outlook, but with some certainty the broad theme is as follows: -Arctic high in residence -Stretched and displaced PV anchored on the Asian side - Deep longwave trough to our NE with alot if cold air about to be embedded within - Weak heights to our NW - Southerly tracking jet Outcome- near term predominantly unsettled rain rather than snow away from high ground in north, further into next week snow risk increases markedly especially for the north.

We've definitely been in the sweet spot this spell. Started around 9 last night and kept on going. Currently 0.1C/0C.

I have model watched over 20 years and it is not often I can’t read what exactly is going to happen next. That tells me something. Neither do the models and a divergence erupting.

The truth is nobody can be certain of how this evolves outside the next few days.We are in a completely non-typical NH pattern following the ssw with further warmings imminent so it's quite likely the furniture will be moved around again. The way i see it is we have a southerly tracking jet with the UK on the borders between the deep cold and the warmer Atlantic air masses.It's already been commented that the latest T72 fax shows a stalling front across N.England and by the looks a cleaner flow from the ne across the north. Added to this we have all the outputs showing colder air coming south from day 5.Indeed the UKMO has the -10c upper line approaching the North of Scotland. Now how easily will a weak southerly jet shift that cold air mass as the next Atlantic low comes across? Mean charts are a useful guide in many setups but in this knife edge pattern for snow chances for the UK then the short term model operationals and the UK fax- are the best guide where changes are likely to the boundary. I certainly think we should hold back more than usual on judging anything modeled beyond the end of next week.

Months are only 'hyped' if you read into people giving an opinion as a complete guarantee. I mentioned 10 or so days ago that in terms of getting an initial 'hit' from the SSW that the next 2 weeks would be absolutely vital. I think it's suffice to admit and say at this point with a higher degree of certainty than not, a displacement as opposed to a split has not helped our current situation. It's almost certain now that the SSW will not provide any joy in bringing snow or any sort of notable spell (not even severe, just notable) to lowland UK. Frankly, there's absolutely no need for toys out of the pram - it's still chilly, we are still in a better position than most years and with future warming's on the Vortex I do suspect the kind of 'teasing' pattern we are in at the moment will continue to be there right throughout February, plenty of snowy opportunities left. With that being said this is all 'kind of a shame' isn't it? - Given this winter had so much going right for it - nothing has translated to the surface. Positively though, we are not heading for any sort of prolonged UK high, Bartlett or raging Vortex over Greenland scenario. A couple of things that have stung this year. The complete lack of 'overachieving' with any output. We have all got something quite useful out of a poor pattern during winters in years gone by, but this year nothing has fallen to give even 1 widespread slider event that stayed even for a day or 2. I've also not long switched the Horse racing on for today and they had coverage of Chantilly in France - where it's absolutely hammering down with snow 2/3 inches deep, almost a Blizzard. Madrid managed their largest storm in decades with the whole city completely snowed in. That's France and Spain much further south that are enjoying snowy cold conditions with the UK suffering. There's numerous large lessons to learn from this year (like last) but the most important/applicable one of all... An SSW is a weather phenomenon, it is absolutely not and NEVER will be a forecasting tool. The art of an SSW is forecasting one to take place and then discussing what sort of Vortex disruption will take place. IF everyone could understand that and apply it to this thread, expectations would be a lot lower - not forgetting how much nicer a place it would be to read. A word of advice, I still feel like a lot of people are 'expecting' rather than 'hoping' for models to suddenly flip/switch into a colder BFTE/notable cold style set up....expecting that is not going to be good for the mental health. It's probably now less than 5% that a BFTE or notable cold spell turns up in the next 2/3 weeks. In summary; *Initial SSW HAS been a failure for UK surface conditions, categorically no BFTE or notable cold spell - wet over white. That's now 2 out of the last 3 SSW's that have been useless for the surface of the UK - worth remembering next time one is forecast that the 'jam' of tomorrow often needs putting in the bin when it's left too long. *Further warmings expected that could deliver notable cold still throughout Feb. *Pattern to continue to be condusive to sliders and conditions perhaps marginal enough for Troughs/showers in correct setups. *No sign of UK High, Bartlett, raging Vortex. *Keep hopeful, don't expect. *SSW isn't and never will be surface forecasting tool and as such, any hype, forecast etc needs taking with a distilled Atlantic barrel of salt. Here is to a happy set of 12z.

Just an observation of trends in winter when blocking is involved be that in Greenland/Scandi or both. I know some disagree but I still believe these models have a historical bias programmed into them and always try and return to default weather pattern. This is when models come unstuck when blocking over higher than normal lattitudes occurs. For example the Arctic high has always been a nightmare to forecast for these models. I do not expect a sudden flip but a slow move towards what I describe.

Just spent nearly 10 minutes looking at what I thought were the GEFS 12z ensembles for Cambridge with a mean of -15C next week. Blimey, I was expecting a bit of an upgrade but this was ridiculous. Turns out it was Cambridge in America, never been so confused in all my life. I’d much rather live here during winter though.

He’s stated that the projected weak to moderate La Niña conditions favour a milder second half to winter, which has been the case all along but there are other factors that can override that. Doesn’t mean a milder second half of winter is predicted.

I hope that p7 is on the money this afternoon as it has uppers widely down to -10C next week. It shows what’s possible still with this set up I suppose. I can dream anyway.

Lovely wintery morning here in Mid-Suffolk. Snow started about 7.30, but now turning to sleet. 0.8C. Now to sit in front of the fire with some tomato soup!

This run is a lot better than runs the past 24 hours. The pattern is pushed south we stay on the right side of the jet and someone in the country would get snow and a decent amount of it with this set up with areas being up for debate this far out. Fits with the metoffice wording for this period. It looks an interesting period coming up and one set to test how imby we all are as im sure the boundary between cold and warm will move up and down as we get closer

You are reading the signals wrong mate,probably due to you becoming frustrated..Dont let emotions give you a blinkered approach to what may or may not be happening. The La Nina affect may influence our weather later in the winter,but it may not! For instance there is plenty of proof that El Nino may not influence our conditions here in the UK as much as some think.. We are a long way downstream don't forget..Ie places like Australia get far more influence from these cycles as we do.The general outlook is unchanged,and mention of a milder more Wstly dominated period is something that may not appear till the end of Feb..even early March.. I mentioned to Marco how the general theme remains solid,and no signs of Zonal in the foreseeable..which I think he agreed. If we can get stronger Heights to the NW or NE...its game on,and there are some signs that this is possible.This first warming may not have influenced our surface conditions here in the UK..Theres a chance that it had some influence..ie the recent snow...but in all honesty we were already in a decent NH pattern prior to the warming. But I feel this secondary warming may believe it or not....have a greater influence on our surface conditions.Give it time mate,we are well in the game,and there's still nothing resembling last years dire set up.

When the eps only churns out one cluster, the nwp is likely pretty unreliable (either too many varied options or other many nuances around a central theme). We remain in pretty solid neg AO/NAO territory if this downwelling wave does fail to bring proper winter south of the Scots then there will be another one along for the end of the month and into feb. the gfs ops are being quite chaotic with their movement of the spv later week 2

I was just thinking that earlier, as I usually like to keep an eye on the SAIS avalanche reports and blogs for snow conditions in the hills, even though I am, of course, restricted to the mighty peaks of North Lanarkshire (plus 5 mile permitted exercise zone!) for now. These guys are still going out for the benefit of those who might be able to go out in the hills to some extent. Some stunning images, like the one below from the Lochaber blog (Aonach Mor, I think). The cover generally looks good in terms of percentage of ground covered, and probably more even than usual, with the lack of big Atlantic storms that usually leave some areas with heavy drifting and others wind-scoured. The snow profiles taken at Lochaber and Cairngorms both have depths of 120cm, and I believe they are chosen as representative sites in terms of drift depths. Scottish Avalanche Information Service | Avalanche Reports for the Scottish Mountains WWW.SAIS.GOV.UK The SAIS publish daily reports of observed and forecast, avalanche, snow, and mountain conditions for the 5 most popular mountain areas of Scotland, with a...

Rapid thaw up here today. But still bloody cold in that wind.

Light snow still here! 3 inches of laying snow on the garden table, 1.5 inch on the pavement! No idea about how much but it was above my ankles in places at the local moor!

Some roads getting blocked around North Norfolk because of lorries getting stuck Had a nice walk already

Well I genuinely hadn't expected to wake up to whiteness again, but if anything we've actually gained a cm or two. It was bucketing down when I went to bed, and according to the weather station it wasn't falling as rain until about 7am. Nice to see but it's pretty horrid to be out in. 3.3C so not the kind of snow that makes me want to run out and play

What a changeable day! Woke to snow, cold rain, then it suddenly warmed up and out came the sun!

Yes it is very sad to see some of the comments from other threads and also a lot of antagonising posts in the Model Thread as well about IMBY SE Posts as well. Best thing to do is ignore it, there is a belief that we get the best storms in summer (Wrong) the Media focus on the SE as well (Wrong) I saw loads of News clips focused on the North this week, but you only have to look at the Vibe of this thread even last night and then look at that thread to see the atmosphere in here was absolute class last night, I know where I would want to be. So just dont get drawn in its only the weather at the end of the day and as my old Grandad Tom Lynch says on the StormChases when things dont go as Modelled "The Weather Will Do what the Weather Will Do" and I really dont care if sad minded people are gloating when things dont go as planned.

I still have excitement regarding the gradual impact of the ssw...it takes time, there’s a lag effect, it doesn’t just suddenly happen!...but I’m still excited!...anyway, according to the GEFS / ECM mean ...for sure it WILL become much colder again later next week from the north following a less cold or dare I say..milder blip?...and I’m thinking southerly tracking jet? with fronts bumping into in situ cold pool over the u k leading to snow events..well, that’s my hope at least!...strap yourselves in for the type of ride we haven’t had in recent pathetic winters..fingers crossed ️

We can be petty sure the cold digs back down at day 6,it shows on all the ops and ens graphs,ecm for example So we get the jet back south along with that cold and then what interests me is what angle of approach we see on the next Atlantic attack.If we get trough disruption extending east as it hits the cold air then some areas of the UK will see a snow event. We have the boundary around 50N with cold in place(-4 to -6c) and low thicknesses-ukmo t144 As long as we keep surface wind flow away from the Atlantic then dew points will be lower.I wouldn't rule out any area north or south.One can only guess where the boundary will be at this range?It will, as always, be down to near time forecasting.

Looks like quite a localised event

I am going to be harpooned and ridiculed for this comment but it seems to me that it is the same repeat posters who create havoc in here and post such dross at times, could there not be a point system whereby people are restricted from posting knee jerk reactions and throwing toys out of prams when they continuously derail this thread? I know my comment by default is doing that now and I apologise but I don't know where else to direct my comment. This for me has been the worst winter I have witnessed so far on this wonderful forum for IMBYsm of a particular area of the UK in this thread as well as nasty snipping and sniggering. How much more of this does it take for this thread to be no longer feasible? It is being ruined in front of our eyes and it’s a huge shame!

Has anyone seen this run from the CFS for March, run the whole month through, this would absolutely cripple this country with snow and cold, even allowing for surface heating being stronger in March, you could be looking at the coldest March of all time, it is quite spectacular, it would be one of the best months in my life overall, never mind Marches. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1074&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&run=0

GFS, ECM and UKMO all agreeing as to the development it appears..... Weds-Fri is going to be an interesting period of weather for all of Scotland. Going to get the pot noodles and tinned mushy peas in.

Snowed here in Gateshead about 4am,

Morning all. Well done to those who got snow today. Latest look at ECM ensembles. Still "slider snow" risk next weekend for somewhere in the UK (it won't be for all), though lower risk than on yesterday's 12Z. Out to the end of week 2, still plenty of appetite for the upper trough to get to our south and east. Can't complain if you're a coldie really - well, not too much

Just been for a nice walk VID_20210116_075653.mp4

No evidence of anything happening here overnight, currently 0.9C with an overnight low of 0.5C. I have the depressing feeling from the weather models that the theme of cold, but not quite cold enough, might be the outlook for the foreseeable. Its not been a bad winter here, quite the opposite I suppose as I've had snowy dog walks any time I wanted since at least Xmas Eve. I'ts just that I'd like a nice week of cold, snowy weather where every time you look outside its getting deeper. An occasional blizzard would be the cherry on the cake too.

Sorry, turned the flash on now

Press play!! Someone could get pasted!! (usual caveats apply) https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=sco&chart=overview,mslp,mslp,mslp&run=12&step=096&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

One thing ive noticed is the colder air is now further south and that low sliding acros the uk between 72 and 96 hours is less deep and shifting south with each run!!ukmo and gfs have upgraded this evening lets hope ecm plays ball!!

It’s the early bird that catches the snow ! . To be precise I left house in dark set of on 10km round trip to Reigate Hill. snow started here around 5:30 am and lasted I guess max 2.5 hours . Set off through Reigate Park then onwards uphill . Was great at top , windy and very cold . At least we got a snow fix . Got home at 9:30 missus still in bed sleeping . Pleased I went really enjoyed the morning IMG_4511.MOV

First hint of easterly flows in trop at our latitude? See those -20is, they "dropped" down... That's the reversal we need. I think. ssw outcome. see strat thread why I think that this is about to happen as EC is very good in prognosis of Strat effects.

Granddaughters first snow event. Had to make the effort.

Heavy rain on Deeside overnight giving a total of 9.9cm so far. DP steadily risen from 0.0c at midnight to 2.1c before falling back a little now to 1.9c. Temperature was 3.1c at midnight, fell to 2.1c, got back up to 3.6 around 6am but dropped a little again. Pressure has been falling overnight too, currently 1010.84hpa. Son will be disappointed that the snowflakes that were forecast on his iPhone app came to nothing, I did warn him however

That is quick rapid deepening of that low on the ecm almost makes it look like an error

I'm not ready to shout out Boom in my manly voice yet..but I feel my feminine side is coming closer to the surface..

The 12z’s have repaired a little of the damage done over the past few days but there’s a long way to go to get back to the boom charts from earlier this week ......

GEM at 144, while not quite as good as Ukmo in terms of heights it does look broadly similar. If the low in the Atlantic can pump some WAA up we could be back in business

Nice afternoon for my daily exercise though it is clouding over a bit just recently and the WNW breeze has picked up. A bit wet with slush and wet snow underfoot in my usual walk area so went down by the river. Turned out to be rather muddy down there but pleasant enough. Currently 5C. Looking up river towards Newburgh and over Invergowrie towards the snow covered Sidlaws.

Hello! Brand new member here had some cracking snow up here in forth since boxing day and looks like possibly more to come next week?

Yes, Highland Perthshire and the area around Auchterarder often do very well in frontal and breakdown events. Here my snow lasted for almosthalf an hour before turning to sleet and then rain Now nice and sunny at 4.3C Re Highland Perthshire here is a Heilan Coo enjoying (maybe) the snow this morning from the house on the hill above Kenmore.

Turning into a slush fest here now, as the rain continues, abandoned going to local hilly common to go sledging, as it would just be a slushy mud fest. Built a small snow man instead.

Good Post mate. Perhaps we could have a points deduction system for repeat offenders... What the mods give they taketh away.. In which case I would have 0 points for talking tosh most of the time Yes it's a great forum and it's a shame that some result in slanging matches to get there point across. We can all disagree on here, but surely in a civil manner! But there are some excellent knowledgeable posters on here who I take alot of notice in, and there are some with great sense of humours, and there are a few who wear there heart on there sleeves and tend to get very emotional when the output goes the wrong way.. Let's not forget bad output today can equate to good output the next day.. This is a great hobby and fascinating to follow, but it's probably best we don't let it rule our lives. If we miss out this time, then we simply dust ourselves down and get ready for the next one. What's going on out there in the big wide world right now is worrying, it makes you think we may not be here this time next month... Now that's stress... This is weather, yes it's intriguing, but let's not squabble over outcomes that may not even be there on the next set of runs... Anyway I'm expecting some better output this weekend..... If not there is always next week folks. Yesterday is History, tomorrow is a mystery... But today is a gift... That's why it's called the present. Stay tuned for some juicy 18z ens.. Coming shortly. Seriously folks I have a good sense of humour, I've just wasted 10 minutes of my life viewing the 18z ens, and they are shocking... Things can only get better from here.. Its just a mismatch of various ideas.. And I'm shocked as to how poor they have become over the last 24hrs..Anyway hopefully something better soon.