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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/01/21 in all areas

  1. 3 pages of ignored users and rising fast after several more added this morning . It’s definitely the way forward. To those getting seriously fed up with this forum being spoilt by certain people, I say try it, the forum suddenly becomes a much nicer place. The incessant whining, glass half empty, and negativity (obviously I am not including the genuine objective posts), this attention seeking need to play Devils Advocate, the ridiculous knee jerk emotional tantrums when we get a less good suite, ruin the experience of model watching on this forum. It’s always the same people and now a fe
    109 points
  2. It's painful reading this place it really is, going from absolute joy to dispair every 12 hours like watching a 2 year old cry when you take a toy off him... Do you not think the fact only last night the gfs was probably the snowiest run iv ever saw, and now this mornings charts show milder Atlantic based air just tells you the volatility of the models as they get to grips with what's happening above,, not to mention how models find it nutoriously difficult modelling a break down? We have the next 5 days of cold easterly winds with snow chances all wk, from later today the air beco
    47 points
  3. For me, I am not too concerned about the change in model direction over the last 24 hours. I suspect it is SSW related. Also I think it is highly likely to be temporary. If you remember yesterday, I demonstrated that there was a minimal push of westerly winds propagating down prior to the negative u winds associated with the SSW. Well, I think the models may have underestimated this, as can be seen from the ECM u wind forecast. It appears that there is a greater push of westerlies into the trop. However, this appears temporary, before negative u winds are back in control.
    46 points
  4. Very little energy upstream at day 7 . There’s a gap to the nw by day 8 which could easily see something more interesting develop . Not convinced any less cold interlude will be around for too long .
    39 points
  5. much improved ECM this eve! Colder as well
    34 points
  6. If this is ECM attempt at a resurgent Atlantic it’s thankfully a complete failure ! Very little going on upstream and a bit more amplification which is possible could see a quite different picture downstream . It doesn’t need a Hollywood scriptwriter to imagine how the pattern could evolve more favourably from day 7.
    30 points
  7. An original lurker here, but felt I must comment on some of the things being said today. Trying to make blunt statements on the basis of current outputs is rediculous. Yes I know it's the purpose of this forum but please accept the level of disarray being shown over the last few days. Having followed weather charts long before most of you were born it is pretty rare that they flip flop to this extent so quickly. I am well old enough to remember the winter of 1963. Please don't make comparisons from anything we have seen so far. Not naming anyone but to say there were milder spells and flooding
    30 points
  8. I do chuckle when I see comments like "the models haven't got a clue" or "they haven't factored in the SSW yet". They do and they have.... They are computer algorithms fed with a vast amount of information regarding current atmospheric conditions. The fact they vary so wildly right now, demonstrates the fact that these conditions are very volatile due to the fact we have an SSW happening at this moment and subject to change at very short notice, hence the multitude of possible outcomes we are seeing. They are also fed this information at different times. So what data one model is giv
    27 points
  9. If you think UKMO/ECM leads the way, “like” this... if you think GFS leads the way, “thanks” this... Somewhere in between the two? “Happy new year” this... im not sure polls are allowed so apologies if they’re not!!! But it would nice to see people’s thoughts on going forward with out the usual sniping and tearing down at others suggestion.. In my opinion the models have not got a clue what’s going on and the volatility is only like to increase!! before it decreases!! around T120+ 😁😁 all part of the fun tho isn’t it?? Oh and happy new year!!
    26 points
  10. A really good run to watch the impact of that monster Aleutian low and pacific jet. Starts here - with the north pacific on steroids and then the residual energy of that surge arrives just off Newfoundland 192h later This is what forces enough energy into a wave break to see off the slight westerly tendency arcing into the troposphere as the SSW develops, and knocks it out the way. That Greenland wave break then controls the trough, keeping it just where we want it. Perfect end product. Wont be the same next run - how this Pacific Strike is modelled and develops will
    26 points
  11. I wonder whether we’ll see one of those scenarios where each day the return to milder conditions is delayed a day. Wouldn’t surprise me. Also, the models have all picked up on a more zonal pattern over the last 24 hours. Another thing that is quite common is that signal is somewhat overblown and it takes a few days for the pendulum to be dampened and the real picture emerges.
    24 points
  12. I wanted to post the clusters in full tonight because I think it explains something about the uncertainty and how it will be resolved. T72-96 5 clusters: All look the same but subtle differences even at this time, most easily detected on the T96. T120-T168 5 clusters: All of them have similarly strong northern blocking it just affects us in different ways. T192-T240 6 clusters: All over the place, but a place that again has strong northern blocking, no Atlantic. Finally, T264-T360: Uncertainty is resolved -a bit 2/3 Greenland bl
    24 points
  13. Evening all, ok the models show the collapse of the Greenland Ridge this week. However, most of this week will be cold out towards the weekend especially in SE Britain, The chart below from UKMO features the Greenland Sea trough/low in formation at 144t and the positioning of a new feature the Iberian Low. Both yet to be determined in its final movements and crucial to the longer term outlook. Reasons yet to be optimistic for many of us cold lovers. The route to mild far from nailed based on the shorter term charts. C
    24 points
  14. Well on looking out of the bedroom window this morning my thoughts were "oh well, nothing overnight" as it didn't look any different, just more frozen. On going outside though to take the dog a walk it was obvious we'd had sleet or wet snow, as yet again the driveway and car were covered in a sheet of ice. On getting half way up the hill, just 5mins drive and 100m higher, it was quite different. I suspect a lot of the sleety stuff we had yesterday and overnight was firmly snow up there. Had quite a wonderful walk in the sunshine, and the dog had a riot. Sorry @Mair Snaw,
    24 points
  15. A bit of bedtime reading for everyone. Written by Simon Lee, Jason Furtado, et al. Abrupt Stratospheric Vortex Weakening Associated With North Atlantic Anticyclonic Wave Breaking The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) of 12 February 2018 was not forecast by any extended-range model beyond 12 days. From early February, all forecast models that comprise the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database abruptly transitioned from indicating a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to a high likelihood of a major SSW. We demonstrate that this forecast evolution was associated with the track and i
    23 points
  16. Agree, it does appear the models are struggling with the fast flow out of the Pacific into N America - which is characterised by short-wave lengths over USA with numerous shortwaves moving east in split southern and northern streams which merge off the east coast. How these shortwaves interact when they arrive towards the Atlantic against a big block maybe causing some model uncertainty over the NW Atlantic sector. Add to this what appears to be too much volatility over the arctic between models and run-to-run of each model, hard to call any model correct past days 5-6.
    23 points
  17. Having watched the GFS / UKMO for about 20 years now its clear the amount of times GFS > UKMO / ECM is low. > You know when its going to be wrong, when it throws out radical changes from run to run scattering lows everywhere. > Equally the only time GFS wins is when theres been atlantic pressure & the model runs with metronomic consistency. Looking at the ECM its been pretty rough lately, the modelling of the Easterly was fine UKMO was good. So its really a straight out battle. After another consistent 06Z run which is infact a bit more amplified. I make t
    23 points
  18. Poor GFS tonight GFSP nothing to write home about Nothing to see here - just standard UK winter fayre
    23 points
  19. Disrespectful and sniping posts have been deleted. Keep it friendly and on-topic please or your post will disappear. Thank you.
    22 points
  20. Not too sure we should over worry beyond the Atlantic ridging just out west which seems in general agreement with the UKMO byT144hrs.I am sure there's more to come with the upstream adjustments. The main thing is this is not the usual high being flattened by a rampant northern jet.Low pressure is retained to the south and on this we are still in the colder air. Looking a the Polar pattern we can see the main part of the pv moving across towards the Siberian side so we would expect some,hopefully,temporary flattening of the Atlantic flow.
    22 points
  21. Pretty cloudscapes this afternoon in the East Neuk even if they were just rainbearing! Currently 2.7c here in Pittenweem.
    22 points
  22. I finally found a -10! If anyone is still interested in the initial Easterly haha.
    22 points
  23. Gotta say - for once JUST ONCE I think most of us would like ECM and UKMO to be wrong. GFS this at 144 v ECM for the same Chalk and cheese. It's all about amplification accuracy upstream - nothing else matters really here. Models have struggled with this during the current spell. I'm off to buy an American flag.......
    22 points
  24. Mate you really must have had the blinkers on if you think the models are rarely wrong...or even a full blindfold on if you think they rarely backtrack..The forecast for the week ahead is remaining cold with wintry showers from the East.Nothing has changed in that respect.. what people are seeing,or weighing up,is how this SSW will affect the weather beyond the reliable time frames..No output is ever set in stone,and there are probably gonna be much ups and downs in the coming days...There is alot going on. Im still thinking the big output swings will start to appear towards later next week..
    21 points
  25. Great summary there mate - absolutely spot on. Basically Monday lunchtime through to Wednesday morning looks good for sleet/snow showers on and off (add in overnight into tomorrow morning for rain/sleet/graupel) - rainfall in the earlier period of this but 850HPA temperatures of -8 (-9 isn’t far away) start appearing for Eastern Scotland through Monday evening well into Tuesday (see chart below for example...-8 also makes it through to Central parts before this timeframe) - as we all know many more snow parameters to take into consideration...it is a start though! (Higher ground the bett
    21 points
  26. Regardless of the output and some of you sniping at one another,which in fairness its the weather and certainly not worth losing your sense of perspectives over.With whats going on currently,let's stay friendly...we never know when we will be gone in this day and age...Models are gonna struggle with the bigger picture at this time frame,so much going on and a lot of changes will be coming up..But I tell you what...just look at the Vortex now! Its not going to take much to put it out of its misery for good..No complaints from me..but tbh...there never is... I love you all guys,let's all be
    21 points
  27. I’ve numbered the features 1 to 4. You can see how the uncertainty re each feature evolves 1 is the initial drop of heights from the north which may well be a little further west than the mean and op show 2 is the Atlantic upper ridge whic may not quite be so intrusive as the mean shows 3 is the following drop of heights from the nw which could go anywhere but is certainly well within the envelope to drop across nw Europe as the upper ridge retracts 4 is the sceuro trough which is likely to maintain low heights to our east and southeast the mean (and op) cannot be di
    21 points
  28. Lol. Good ole pub run delivering a straighter northerly and less of a collapsing ridge this is probably due to far stronger Iberian low
    20 points
  29. No - there are enough gefs members with Atlantic amplification in week 2 to make the mean upper ridge part of a still cold regime ....we would expect the pattern to be a little less progressive over the next few weeks so as long as maintain some amplification in the ensembles then we remain in the cold game ..... we may have lost a clean path to a v cold ongoing outlook but winter hasn’t gone away ..... what I will say is that the week 2 strat pattern from gfs op and gefs is very consistent to deliver the board pattern we saw on last nights 18z gfs of Asian trough towards sceuro and
    20 points
  30. Was up on The Mount this afternoon and at 330m in the clouds it was definitely sleety: Beautiful looking towards the south end of the Pentlands (if you squint there probably 10-15 miles north) . And then looking south toward Biggar.
    20 points
  31. MO Summary and overview Not sure why people were surprised by today's output, UKMO has been on this path for a while and I have discussed how the dangers of too much energy heading NE with the first low ad nauseam. On the flip side those who were borderline trolling with NIMBY posts are not proved correct either, it is a flip of coin and as often in the UK it is heads the Atlantic wins, tails the arctic loses. That said, assuming we don't get a surprise flip back and we can't get the trough to drop more effectively and keep the pattern backed West and more amplified it is not th
    20 points
  32. So last post of me spamming the same story before the 12z as im currently dieing off with corona! Watch for this development (also covered by @Catacol further up the board That low on the 96 hour charts. Watch it from 72 to 96 You want it deeper and digger deeper into America. This kicks up a small surface ridge ahead of it on the American East Coast which pushes shortwave energy east to drop over us whilst leaving a vacuum for the north atlantic ridge to move into over Greenland See you all at 3:00pm!
    20 points
  33. GFS snowcover 120 as the first low tracks south 🤔☃️
    20 points
  34. A few days ago we were looking at a warming trend from the 9th. Now it's the 12th. In a couple of days time I suspect it'll be the 15th. As the SSW begins to happen, models are going to struggle to resolve what happens next, the 18z tonight is an extreme example of that, I suspect we'll see some extreme mild options being thrown out too. The ensembles with their lower resolution are going to struggle even more. The ECM should have a better handle on things, sure there's a slight warming trend within the mean but look at the spread of solutions, there's quite a cold clustering there also.
    20 points
  35. Is it poor run or a good run? Haven’t a clue after reading some of the comments, think I’ll have a look for myself from now on before looking on here lol
    19 points
  36. Had a nice walk today around one of the local reservoirs. Nice views towards Glasgow as the sunset. This wee robin stopped by so I could take his picture 😃
    19 points
  37. I know ( for a change ) its a slightly IMBY post but is 100% model related. The high res models now working on T48 & below- HIRLAM goes for 5-6cm over the hills in the SE - maybe low ground as well. Could be higher at the core of the streamer.
    19 points
  38. I try to stay away from the model thread. I am no expert in the models but I always find the Scottish thread the best for finding out what we have in store here. It’s great that we have some knowledgeable members who are in Scotland. They share their thoughts and forecasts in this thread for the members who don’t understand the models as much but have a big interest in the weather like myself 🙂
    18 points
  39. It is extremely frustrating to look at, it is bipolar in that thread. It doesn't matter how many times we have a SSW people still expect models to be absolute nailed on when in fact that is very rarely ever the case and even less so in a SSW. It is just full of I told you so, and mild zonal always wins comments. Well of course it will eventually as it is our default pattern, people become very argumentive over something which at the end of the day we have no control over it is baffling. It could be -10 outside and snow galore and we would still have folk complaining that it isn't la
    18 points
  40. I have been here for years now and never post. I am sure there is something brewing from the north to north east. SSW is going to filter into the models over the coming 72hours. Happy new year to you all.
    18 points
  41. The update from meto says becoming colder next week again so probably and hopefully this will be the start of something better
    18 points
  42. I must apologise to many of you who regularly post on this forum. Until today, I have been thinking 'Why are all these people posting about 10 day forecasts as if the synoptics will bear any resemblance to these forecasts in 10 days time'. In fact , until today I would look at T+240 charts to find out what was NOT going to happen. How wrong I have been! And now all that has changed. In my tier 4 lockdown this morning I have done some verification from the Meteociel site. I chose the past 2 significant changes of types that involved cold weather over the UK. First the major develo
    18 points
  43. Just looking at the latest ensemble graphs from both suites and it's clear that a large divergence in the 500 hPa pressure trends show up from day 6.This uncertainty the result of upstream modeling of the jet differently- already touched on in earlier posts. Anyway the 2 pressure/thickness graphs below. Both operational runs are almost outliers for different reasons.As can be seen the ecm op going for much higher pressure the high toppling and flattening and the gfs op in favour of the trough dropping south. The ecm mean chart by day 8 is likely to be nearer the mark with
    18 points
  44. Don’t give up guys, the GEFS 6z does redeem itself too a certain extent, even beyond mid month!..on the face of it, the mean May look crap, but look 👀 at the 2m temps..hmm?..not mild is it?...on a more serious note, the mods..I mean the models may be having a wobble with all the ssw in the headlines..perhaps, before you know it, there will be bitterly cold easterly winds, dry powder snow and max temps of minus 7 Celsius ...19F if I’m not much mistaken..hmmmmm!!!!😜
    18 points
  45. It better not be another wintry mix! 😁 Would be nice to have an all snow (fairly widespread) Scotland event. Have been keeping an eye on it the last couple of days. Few snapshots: Thursday 03:00 06:00 Interesting to see what becomes of all this on the day! Colder air/wintry showers then arrive as it clears through. 18:00 All ties in nicely with this! Back to the here and now and looking further West - risk of wintry/snow showers filtering through to the Glasgow, North and South Lanarkshire areas over the nex
    18 points
  46. A colder set of ensembles. This time yesterday the mean (white line) was just above the average (white line) so they are heading in the right direction to avoid a milder spell mid month...
    18 points
  47. Oh, looky here... a potential snow fest , on or around Day 10! Well, blow me down with a feather, if Day 10 hasn't been 'nailed' ever since 2003! But, do I suspect that the SSW will deliver? Well, yes I do... But it'll do it when it's good and ready!
    18 points
  48. I'd say 2 things are problematic for all models at the moment - the same 2 things as previously flagged. Firstly that north pacific low with a record central pressure for that latitude - somewhere around 925mb....and what it is doing to the circulation. And secondly the very swift impacts of the SSW that are within sight today with a very swift deceleration of winds kicking off now. EC strat models this morning have once again upgraded the level of wave 2 forcing - this time at only 48 hours! - but at the same time the 150hp charts are showing a generally faster westerly circulation. The debat
    18 points
  49. Upsicle update. He had a few too many shandy’s on New Year’s Day and lost the heid. Getting back on his feet now!
    17 points
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