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And Gonzo-nality!!!

Skinny High alert!

Wis quite nice the day until the wind picked up and the rain came oan. Few phone photaes of a dug walk in Wooplaw elm wuid.

I’ll have a pizza if your doing a food run Steve ? so far so good. Fingers crossed for at least a similar run to this morning. More importantly though we need the ECM on board later..

Seems to be a growing consensus from 00z GFS/EC and their ensemble means in holding back a full on return of mobility next week and following weekend, due to trough disruption west of Iberia Weds/Thurs, which the models often struggle with, forcing high pressure/heights to build over NW Europe as upper low closes off near Iberia. EPS MEAN T+180 Whether this delays an inevitable return to Atlantic mobility or building heights close to the east continues the stalling of upper troughing/low heights pushing in from the west - remains to be seen. Bit too far off in time for the models to resolve with confidence. But a backing away of a full-on Atlantic onslaught return, though there will be some slowing or stalling fronts next week to bring some rain in places. Interestingly a Pacific wave train and more energy going into the STJ upstream over the U.S over the coming days will also help amplify wave lengths - which may perhaps further help Atlantic trough wave-breaking and in turn reinforce blocking to our NE.

I have been constantly saying that people are prematurely writing things off. Here's 10 years+ worth of experience of analysing model output. When you see certain nuances repeated in the output, you get a sense of where you may be headed next. Seeing the models attempting to have LP approaching negatively tilted, constant heights to the E and troughing struggling to make it past the meridian, you know something is stirring in the background.

I feel will need a ‘Skinny high’ version of ‘wedges make sledges’ how about ‘get a skiing high and the flakes will Fly”? so far so good..

Encouraging to see the models still seeing those ht. anomalies over Scandinavia, repeating this trend from last evening. Signs of lower pressure heading south so indications that any ridging to the east is having some effect. Still too much Atlantic momentum at the moment though but certainly possibilities further on.

A little summary of 00Z operational models (using 144 hour and beyond, timeframes) this morning: 00Z GFS From Friday next week, it has a wedge of High Pressure building into Scandinavia with the Azores High pushed out to our West. Upper trough to the North-West of the UK over Iceland and Greenland. Looks primed to send Lows on a East to South-East track towards to UK against the wedge of heights over Scandinavia. The Azores High does briefly link up with High Pressure over Scandinavia through the UK at 168 hours. Then essentially, rest of the run is Low Pressure to the North-West disrupting against the high heights across Scandinavia and to our North. The High Pressure not quite close or strong enough to send Low Pressure over Western/North-Western UK far enough to the South of us. But there is one or two small runner Lows that get squashed through to the South of the UK from the main Low Pressure to our West/North. Could bring some rain or sleet across Southern UK. The run ends with a a deeper area of Low Pressure and low heights dropping down close over Western UK. The run looks quite similar to what 12Z ECMWF was showing yesterday with some heights building into Scandinavia. Quite cool overall with some Polar Maritime air getting into the mix, especially towards the West of the UK. But with some wet periods as the slow moving Lows out West bring some spells of rain, some probably wintry over hills. 00Z ECMWF Bit of a different story on the ECMWF for Friday next week. Has High Pressure pushed East over the UK, which strolls over the Scandinavia at 168 hours. Before the organised Low Pressure over North-Western UK tries to extend some of its low heights East/South-East towards the UK, the Azores High from the South-West extends a ridge Eastwards through the UK and keeps the weather settled across Southern UK. Although even Northern UK would see some settled weather at times. At the end of the run, as some of the core Low heights to the North-West of the UK heads further East towards Western Scandinavia, the Azores High gets squashed back to the South and South-West of the UK and a more cool cyclonic flow from the North-West becomes introduced for mostly North-Western UK. Interestingly, this is the sort of scenario the ECMWF showed a day or two ago, with areas of High Pressure quite dominant over the UK, with the Jetstream for a time on more Northerly track. The Vortex to our North-West is more organised keeping the pattern a bit flatter. Bit early to tell whether the 00Z ECMWF is on to something, but some of the drier, cool and frosty weather it’s showing would I’m sure be welcome for a few on here. Not quite the same as the GFS this morning. The GFS and ECMWF never seem to get along do they? 00Z GEM Seems to, from Friday next week onwards, head in a similar direction to the GFS. Got a bit of a battle going on again between the Scandinavian block and the trough to the North-West of the UK. The Scandinavian High appears to be winning as Low Pressure to the North-West of the UK disrupts against the block and, like the GFS, sends a small runner Low through Eastwards to the South of the UK. Some rain, perhaps sleety in heavier bursts, is possible as the Low gets over to the East of the UK and fills. The run ends with a little narrow ridge in the mid-Atlantic building North with separate areas of Low Pressure in the Western Atlantic and over North-Western UK. High Pressure over Scandinavia trying to hang on, though has pushed away a little bit further North-East. Just to add as well that the upper heights over Scandinavia are higher than that on the GFS. So far, it feels like when looking at these operational models above, the the GFS solution seems to be more of the favoured outcome. However, the ECMWF certainly can’t forgotten about as some people mentioned earlier it has some support. Both the 6 to the 10 day, and the 8 to 14 day, NOAA 500mb anomaly charts would probably favour a scenario in between what the GFS and ECMWF show with the trough to the North-West of the UK progressing a little further East. Higher than average heights getting eroded to the South of the UK, but replaced with some higher than average heights edging into the South-West of the UK. Quite a strong upper Westerly flow over the UK so probably quite unsettled, maybe less so across the South at times. And probably getting cooler from the West/North-West. There’s no upper ridge in the mid-Atlantic itself, so any phantom Northerlies would be unlikely. I’m afraid There may be a possibility as well that models, in particular, the GEM could be overdoing Scandinavian heights a little. Any really cold or wintry conditions personally seems unlikely at the moment. Nor do I think is a constant raging mild flow from the South-West with perhaps a greater focus on Polar Maritime air, especially across North-Western areas. Some I understand are probably worried whether something cold and wintry will turn up in the next few weeks or so. I know a lot of people wouldn’t want a repeat of last Winter, though is plenty of time for snowy opportunities. Even some of the mild Winters have delivered (one example being Winter 2006/07 - some receiving a dumping of snow in February 2007). It’s also a case I feel that Southern areas tend to not get their first bit of wintry weather until towards Christmas time.

06z looks a slam dunk Easterly to me.

Tonight’s latest mood swing from the ECM is to bring back the easterly tease or at least the battle of blocking with the angry looking troughing to the nw which is being fed by the main PV further north . The GFS wants to see a similar battle but upstream it has a developing shortwave out of kilter with the Euros so it’s evolution might be questionable . The UKMO performs a backtrack of sorts , less progressive with the troughing to the nw . You can perform an exit poll type scenario from early on. The baseline is how far energy gets east towards Iceland at days 5 and 6 . So for newbies . Draw a line ne, west of Ireland upto eastern Greenland , the further west you see those deeper low heights the compound effect moving forward will increase chances for something colder . And a sharper looking trough means more energy is heading se . The round base of the troughing is an easy guide to eastwards momentum . The key thing in these scenarios is to get energy underneath any lobe of high pressure to feed lower pressure over Southern Europe . Overall tonight a bit more potential for coldies , several possible scenarios on the table if the cards fall nicely . However we could also easily see a stalemate situation with the troughing hanging over the UK .

Day 7 Mean a significant improvement in the last 48 hours - Certainly will be some cold runs in there...

Oh knickers, knackers and dare I say knockers (A-) ! Looks okay on the webcam but it's changing every 5 mins between stair rod rain and blue skies!

Hi goodmorning peeps Hoping everyone is well and safe. A better start to the day here in Walthamstow this morning, a bit windy but overall a few holes in the cloud as well with a bit of blue. Back to the models firstly I put my hand up I am no great expert and I would like to thank all the knowledgable ones who kindly share their information and make more sense to people like myself. I came on here yesterday and read through the posts and I must admit it did make me feel a bit downbeat. I saw posts saying next 4 to six weeks are definately zonal and and some said no cold to be seen at least after the Christmas period and even some posts saying this was another season down the drain. Lovely peeps what is going on we have still got the last 3rd of November to go . What we have now is nothing unusual its typical Autumn weather and hey temperatures ok have been mild but we have no headlines of record warmth which in some years has been. The winter season has not started yet and we have a long rollercoaster ride to go through together. What the models are saying and what is in the met 30 day outlook is just an assumption of how things might pan out with current indicators. It's not a done deal and not written in permanent highlighter. We have seen although what is being predicted might be current trends, all it needs is a few adjustments in the pattern and the whole game can change and from past experience I have seen this happen many a times ( alas more times when cold is on the cards and it all fails and probable less times when mild is on the cards and it turns cold). The weather is something we have no control over it will change when it wants and sometimes at short notices, So peeps don't be downbeat I am sure this winter will give us something to cheer about but it's probably going to be a patience game things can quickly change the whole picture. I know it's been a tough year and we all need some cheer and some snow will definately cheer us coldies ( it will come ) anyway the above is not being said to pick on anyone or anything in fact I can sometimes be in the same boat when I see charts I don't want to but that is human nature. Going back to the models it's looking rather unclear what is going to happen. Will pressure build over or near Scandi ? Is our mobile pattern here to stay? It's just a matter of watching and seeing what churns out in the next couple of days. There is something however in the back of my head that I would kindly like to have some input about from the more knowledgeable ones on here. The Beijing CImate Centre - now their current thoughts are December becoming dominated by northern blocking and this becoming more notable as we go through Jan and February and even March. I know it's sounds too good to be true but can anyone shed any light as to how reliable this source is. What has been their past rating. Would love to hear on this. Well I feel I have said loads lol but at these hard times I just want to wish everyone and their families to stay safe and be healthy. Keep an eye on the vanerable and let's hope this storm will pass us. My friend was in ICU with Covid but he pulled through and is home now. Lets keep our heads up and hope the weather can bring us something to put a smile on our faces. THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN Have a great day all stay safe Regards

Much the same old bean, mine's out of a tall brown bottle from Chile... We were up Glen Strathfarrer 4 weekends ago and the colours on the trees were really good. First autumn for a few years when the leaves hadn't been shredded before developing their full colours. There was a gale a few days later.... and it's been a bit breezy out this evening, although easing off now.

Pub run is going bonkers as usual...nothing to see here! It's even having a go at another shot too. Some very cold 850hpa temps - uppers in excess of -16c near SE Iceland and NW Scotland..

I think the only footprints of importance for a lot of members this winter are these type

GFS through 96 has wedged a bit more high pressure in the gap squeezing NE which will mean a smoother transition to a blocked scenario- The key to any easterly will be the flow allignement of the cold upper pool at 168. ECM was westerly which allows the pool to move West then NW escaping the UK- we need the allignment SSW really ! Note the better amplitude of the jet 114 V 120 & the scandi arm directed more towards the UK

Yes - Thats why I was keen on the GFS > theres just some patterns GFS does ok with.. GFS 138 has more of a block seperation over Scandi which is a good start

Slowly these patterns beginning to appear, again the key thing is patience I have been surprised with even some of the more experienced members basically throwing the towel in at this stage in November also the word zonal gets thrown about far too easily a truly zonal pattern would be that of say winter 2013/14 stormy, flooding and u can usually add milder temperatures but again seems to be forgotten u can get colder zonality which has provided the only snow of the last few winters up here. I’m not sure of the years with similar PV strength but I struggle to believe that every single time there has been a strong PV winter that the UK won’t still have seen colder spells, perhaps someone who is better clued up about those years could research that

So this is what we want to see Secondary amplification in the atlantic at day 7 that forces the trough in scandi to drop south while HP builds over the top. Thats our route to cold...

Something to smile about for about 6 hours, at least.

plenty of trough disruption and eastern blocking on this run...not sure it’s enough for a UK winter wonderland but it’s a start...

"Forum meltdown alert" polar low incoming...

Here is the latest De-built ecm ens from central Holland just come out this evening v's two days ago ^and as you can see there is a tighter cluster of colder temps than two days ago where there was a split in temps ^same with the dew points ^wind direction and you can see the easterlies have been extended compared to two days ago,now the question is can we tap into this cold air from the continent?,my gut feeling says no and we would probably just miss out and i could be totally wrong http://www.weerplaza.nl//Content/Images/icon-app.png 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

Pretty raw out and the day started pretty rotten with rain. Decided to join in with Shuggee‘s frost club this year and try keep count, I realise the first rule of frost club is “do not talk about frost club” but yesterday was our 15th Captured a bit of a moonbow a couple of weeks back, had never seen the likes

ECM 12 z @ 168 A Scandi Slice brings snow and ice ..... etc etc

ECM looks pretty good on pressure build, Energy distribution & Easterly flow at 120

There are more GFS members creating that skinny Scandi High > Take the UKMO 144 & compare with PTB 2 Ends up continental flow Some more positive vibes is that there is deeper cold to the NE across the piste this eve as well... Finely poised.. This PTB is notably close to what we want with just a smidge more amplification Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

TGI tonight mate for me GFS ENS more amplifed at 120- Ever so slowly the pattern isnlooking colder at day 8 > onwards - not mega cold however a slight tweak in the flow & high & the colder pool will head this way...

ICON out the blocks trends towards a possible decent solution > would be out of range into the +180s

For sure the GEFS 6z is not completely without interest from a cold perspective, hey it’s far from perfect but anyways, I owe my interest in the weather blossoming from a very young age from my art teacher, a weather enthusiast ( Mr Kendal)..god bless him!, we launched small weather balloons at school for gawd sake..amazing times..hmm..I won’t bore you with how amazing that was for me!!!..anyway, here’s hoping for a better winter season than the last several..can’t be worse..surely!..I guess if I want a proper winter I should go and live in Finland at Santa Claus village..ah, if only!

Hmmmm looking at the GEFS 6z mean it’s a broadly westerly upper flow so there is at least some potential for wintry precipitation as we approach the cusp of winter (mainly for high ground further north)..I would rather that than a turgid euro slug scuppering any wintry potential whatsoever!!!!!...for sure it’s not ideal for coldies but it’s not the end of the world as we know it...I feel fine!

I picked up on the developing falling heights over Iberia yesterday evening, and the models continue to show such developments, and in the near - timeframe 120 hrs, heights inbetween low pressure to the NW and to our south enable a break in the atlantic flow, and at the same time, allow for modest height developments to our NE. Where we go from there remains uncertain, reliable timeframe tops is about 144 hr , and not much point looking beyond for a change. When you drop heights to our south, the models often struggle, and short-term developments often make a mockery of longer range outputs. Its an interesting place to be rather the traditional zonal westerly flow.

Our friend Shannon Entropy is certainly enjoying her time within the extended models & ensembles at the moment. Rather large swings between zonal & blocked patterns, seemingly for the past couple of weeks. This I think is largely down to the MJO. Models are really struggling to accurately forecast this up-coming pulse and whether or not it moves eastwards into the Maridians, where it decays/what impact that'll have on global patterns. Until models can resolve this, I'd expect to see more flip-flopping in the extended outputs, so any blocking/lack of should be treated the same, with large amounts of caution. We need consistency and that's something that has been severely lacking in recent weeks, even the usually more stable ECM model has been struggling with the constant changes between runs.

Well we don’t seem to be moving in the wrong direction ! I wouldn’t go any further than that at the moment

Very poor continuity from the ECM which has a totally different NH pattern compared to last nights run and starts going downhill by day 6 . The shape of the troughing to the nw from that point , as in rounded and not sharp, the latter would indicate it was starting to lose eastwards momentum , rounded effectively means it will just barrel too much energy eastwards . The latest ramblings from it want to start edging the main PV east , whether that gets far enough east to allow some colder air to filter in from the nw time will tell. The GFS after the ECM dropped its blocking idea now wants to follow last nights run from that model . The UKMO didn’t look interested last night in terms of the ECM 12hrs trend and still doesn’t want to know today . Overall although there’s uncertainty in the models one trend remains , amplification shown at day 6 onwards is struggling to see the light of day.

EC control follows det in building High pressure next week. A rare ukmo - ec face off at 144... I would much prefer ec to be right, we might see even some frost,which has been vacant through the Autumn locally !!

Number 3 please.

I will try Shakey at the moment the models are forecasting trough disruption close to/or west of the UK as heights build to our NE,this trough disruption being forced SE into Iberia lowering heights there,then the forecast/models get a little sketchy after that,if we keep the lowering of heights to the south into mainland Europe then this in turn will prop the heights up then a possibility of heights retrogressing west into the Atlantic and then Greenland don't take this as gospel,we need the trough disruption to go right first. as Crew says there is a disconnect between strat/trop but if we can tap into some of that cold that is showing on the 30 hpa chart,it could be a potent blast also La nina could be influencing Atlantic heights later on so something to watch out for as is shown in some of the gefs ens.

The signs have been in the output for a while. We're seeing a continued disconnect between the strat and the trop, most likely being aided by continuing Russian/Siberian heights. It's the one thing I look for in November.

Pert 23 would be the daddy out of them all synoptic wise with WAA going up the west side of Greenland,pv relocated over Siberia and lower heights to our south,a northerly blast of sorts coming up on this i would of thought.

Looking at the GFS 12z op it’s great too seee the u k tending to become drier towards the end of November?...ps..also great too see knocker posting again..even if it’s only about methane?

Either way coldies have a bit of interest... Ukmo looked horrid this morning though, so I'm super sceptical we even have a landing point at 14r hrs letalalone anything beyond. Thats my waffling done for the morning... Ps Karl, I hope your dad is doing OK.

The control is of interest too with the canceling out of the trough digging south and an easterly starting to show it's hand through central Scandinavia with a very cold pool of -16 uppers.

Here he comes...

JFF but here we go... some of the 0z gefs ens was showing this pert 24 is a cracker La nina print trying to show it's hand in the extended?

As with most gfs runs past day 8 Tim, I wouldn’t be over analysing it ! Maybe give the dog some crayons to cross check ??

Ha So near lol... At the least the models hold some interest at the moment..

Cool again and breezy this morning at 5.5c and the tops have a dusting again. Very mild last evening at 12c