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it’s not great but I’ve seen worse. Look how far west the Azores high is pushed, a clearance of the PV over the north west and the angle of the jet stream...

I have been constantly saying that people are prematurely writing things off. Here's 10 years+ worth of experience of analysing model output. When you see certain nuances repeated in the output, you get a sense of where you may be headed next. Seeing the models attempting to have LP approaching negatively tilted, constant heights to the E and troughing struggling to make it past the meridian, you know something is stirring in the background.

Very wet UK, LP not getting much past the meridian, negatively tilted lows...hmmm...seen this set up before preceding quite a memorable winter in recent times Personally think people are being far too downbeat for prospects over the next few weeks.

The 12z ecm mean v's 00z at day ten... clearly shows a pressure rise into Scandi,all hope may not be lost if we can get this trough to our NW to disrupt S/SE like the op did then there could be possibilities from there, a long shot i know...

Morning all. Great to see some pics of some winter weather. Got down to 0c early yesterday evening but was up to 5c by the early hours so no frost here. Fingers crossed for all of us on here this winter - we all deserve a decent winter Seems like ages since I ventured on here! Moved house recently so that's been keeping me busy. Also been trying to take a digital holiday (not this forum specifically - just a break from being online and all the 24hrs news and general shenanigans) and in some respects it's been beneficial for my head space. I'm really struggling with working from home though. The novelty has worn off and even the new house feels a bit like a prison some weeks. Properly wrecked my shoulder and that's keeping me off my bike which is the once thing that had been keeping me sane through all of the madness! Trying to get out walking everyday but, while it's nice to be out, it just doesn't appeal to me like the bike! On and I miss the pub Hope everyone is well! Looking forward to hopefully posting a bit more often! 101

Grey is the word this morning, i think its actually gotten darker since we got up this morning, sorry to hear of your struggles @101_North this year has been very difficult for many and its hard to find ways to cope. I guess for me and my family its not been as hard as we already home educate all 3 of our children and i am a carer for both my wife and my eldest son so am often at home for long periods of time, we dont have any family members to miss so thats not been a struggle. The only struggle here has been staying on top of my wife's mental health issues along with her other health issues.. but thats been a constant for some years. Moving house is a stressful time under normal circumstances so in these times even worse. Take care of yourself.

Funny year for all of us 101. We're ok as we always did live quiet and isolated so no huge change there, but we moved after 30 years in Heriot, to a tiny wee gas heated pensioners hoose near Jedburgh and it's taking some getting used to. I'm always either too hot or too cold, and I hate the walk-in shower - there's no bath. But the neighbours are lovely and this wee village has A SHOP - I like that! I'm expecting a longer summer or at least growing season here, we dropped 800ft. And this garden is small and flat, that's a novelty. It's great to have this forum to talk to, keeps me sane. Ish.

I disagree. If I was the met forecaster I’d be fairly happy for the time being. The GFS shows an unsettled spell with northwesterly / PM incursions with uppers around -4c so showers turning wintry over the higher ground. Met office 6-30 dayer says .. ”Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over high ground.”

Morning - The ECM now backed away from the over amplified postition & is now back in line with the GFS.. Nothing cold on the cards, maybe some wet chilly days. Awful outlook TBH.

GFS ends with the PV in tatters and -18 uppers over Scandinavia - ready to pounce if the dice fall in our favor . Chin up folks it’s not even winter yet...

if it’s shown on the op then it’s a possibility. If any other member / ensemble was ore reliable then that would be used as the op?? Also remember a mean isn’t always useful. If there are 50 white cars and 50 black cars in a car park then the mean is grey...there is 0 grey cars though ?? that’s my positive take on it

Well that's a bit rude.... we have a somewhat very huge Pembrook dangler at day ten through the UK as for the ECM,a nice profile and there is some gefs ens support regarding the block to our E/NE.

This is a very simplified answer, and probably not the thread to do this in (feel free to move or removed moderators). Pressure is literally the weight of the earth's atmosphere above a point, hence the higher you get, less atmosphere above you and pressure decreases. Geopotential height is the measure in dm (10*metres) of a pressure surface (for example 300hPa geopotential height is around 10KM on average) above the geoid (this accounts for the variation in gravity between equator and poles and makes the maths much simpler). If you think of the earth's atmosphere like a balloon, if you cool a section of it the air molecules will lose energy, move more slowly, and be able to get closer together (increasing density), and the balloon would we seen to deflate, if you heated the air inside the balloon the opposite would be true and it would inflate. In the earth's atmosphere this means that in areas where the atmospheres mean temperature is cooler, the air is denser and where warmer less dense etc. This means that in a cool area you if you were firing a rocket upwards you may pass through the 300hPa at say 10 KM, whereas in a warm airmass at 10KM the pressure would be higher say 350hPa in this example. This difference is typically at a maximum at the top of the troposphere (the part of the atmosphere where the weather occurs) and hence the jet stream is typically strongest around this height in the mid-latitudes where this temperature/or height of pressure surface gradient is strongest. In winter at high latitudes the net radiation balance sees energy lost to space....hence net cooling. This is more marked over land than ocean (which has a much higher heat capacity)., and once land snow covered sunlight reflected further cooling etc... As such at the same degree of latitude over land the mean temperature of the airmass (if it persisted here) would reduce and geopotential height of the pressure surfaces would reduce. This would cause a minima in geopotential height to form (a trough) relative to the surrounding oceans, and the jet stream to dip southward to the southern boundary of this cooler airmass to where the geopotential height gradient is greatest, and then move north to find the gradient nearer Greenland / Iceland / the sea ice edge in the North Atlantic. There are other factors such as lee troughs (to the lee of the Rockies) which often favour troughing over North America too. But hope this sort of helps explain the general broad pattern. But note the jetsream on the boundary between cold and warm airmasses, so further south across Asia (large cold continent), and generally shifts north in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans (ECMWF 200hPa height and winds image for today attached).

Certainly, the PV might be nearing record territory but so is the negativity in the model and winter thread resulting in me going like this nice to be able to come in here and have a much needed laugh with u guys and girls of course ha. good to see @shuggee keeping his frosty reputation in a weather sense obviously lowest it got to here was actually yesterday evening at 1.0C

The ECM is one of those charts we’ve seen many times over recent winters . More attention seeking behaviour ! We have the will it or won’t it regarding the blocking to the ne . The main PV needs to clear further to the ne and stop feeding energy into the troughing to the west of the UK . There is a chance then that we might see sufficient trough disruption. The main interest comes post day 7 and we haven’t exactly got a high success rate at that point so at the moment it’s still a lowish chance. Any westwards corrections in future outputs would be much appreciated!

Still here still chasing. 600 miles westward shift and it's on like donkey Kong

Trough disruption appearing on EC this evening....

There is a known difficulties with NWP in the Austral Summer / Boreal Winter regarding the MJO propagating from the Indian Ocean across the Maritime Continent into the the West Pacific. Which is based around zonal and meridional moisture gradients, some events are blocked and do not cross the Maritime Continent, while others are able to cross in the Western Pacific. Generally strong MJO event are able to achieve better premoistening across the Maritime Continent (promoting an E'ward movement of convection), and have a greater chance progressing into the Western Pacific. I've popped a few model graphics below to show the MJO across the Indian Ocean on the 16th Nov where you can see the amounts of moistening ahead of the convection max which we can roughly infer from the zone of enhanced 850hPa westerly winds, and as this enters the Maritime Continent on the 22nd in GFS there is significant areas showing negative precipitable water anomalies and not showing a great environment of pre-moistening (on both GFS and GEFS) and hence unlikely propagation of a marked MJO into the Western Pacific. As a result in this case from the GFS and GEFS data I can see, I would suggest the MJO will likely get blocked and not make it to West Pacific, much as shown by EC and GFS Wheeler and Hendon plots.

Hmmm, been away for a wee while ( dads very ill again!)... but I’m still seeing high pressure in the ascendancy during early December ( exact position / orientation unclear at the time of writing ) ?...no guarantee of course?... but that’s what the GEFS 6z mean indicates at the very least..as for the brief wild northerly blast..cough cough!, preety pathetic wasn’t it!?.!!

Ya think?!

Good cold spells often arise from a spell of model-watching that go through spells of total optimism to total despair such as we are seeing now. I'm now strangely more confident of something coming along of a wintry nature soon, even if we're not getting November 2010, I can't explain why but It just seems to be how these things go. I'll be expecting to see a lot more optimism in here come tomorrow. :)

It’s not winter yet??

Interestingly the pub GFS now considering the heights to the ne. Models keep coming back to this but just not yet in a reliable time frame. Let's see where we are tomorrow.

I did a bit of digging at the EPS timestamps and here is what i came up with and as you can see below are the upper dynamics of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies from the EPS(i don't have access to the extended but i think @bluearmy does and to name a few more) today's 192 v's Wed 240 and there are two marked differences,firstly you can see the trough to our NW digging/disrupting further south and secondly stronger heights into Scandi... also Matt Hugo tweeted this not long ago.

on Brighton beach?

Very nice profile to the NE !

Ecm more amplified but we all know it shall be gone by tomorrow lol!!

-2C this morning with a frost, and still some of the snow dusting surviving in places, so can I count yesterday as a 'snow day'? By the time I got home at around 4:30pm it was back up to 10C. As others have said, the period between was cloudy, grey and utterly unappealing.

Even though I haven’t posted since last weekend, I’ve still been keeping tabs on the mods..I mean models!..and..for example, even though very recent ecm ops have been going for anticyclonic longer term, the mean has been more reluctant and showing more of a NW / SE split..now of course this doesn’t in any way preclude a more settled early / mid December...anyway, I want cold and snaw dammit!!!

Don’t worry guys jma as got this new signal for colder start to December what’s the betting as soon as meto drop the colder outlook and models pick it back up again..

So, I am posting in the SE regional thread, which has been my home for decades, and yet now have an official home 1200 miles away in the Santarem district of Portugal. Due to the COVID pandemic, the whole process from start to finish has been done from here in the UK c/o online applications, remote viewing of property, and finally a PoA purchase via a legal advisor who has overseen the whole process and has done a brilliant job as well Today I received my Portuguese/EU residency certificate - which means I keep the automatic rights of citizenship that would otherwise have ended at the close of next month and would have meant a much more difficult VISA process. There is some updating being carried out to the kitchen and the bathrooms and then its a case of taking the long drive down there (to avoid flying risk), before the end of the year, with a copy of the residency certificates for each of us and also an affidavit letter from the legal advisor to confirm the essential purpose of travel. Anyway, to keep it weather related - there are obvious differences as one might expect to the conditions down there and those here. Early morning temperatures today in double figures and mid afternoon temps still heading towards the low 20s in southern and parts of central Portugal (and Spain) Compared to temps close to freezing first thing this morning across much of SE England and E Anglia, and despite the relatively milder air coming in from the west, the maximum daylight temps staying in single figures for most. Finally, for this post, my Portuguese friend Susana who originally lived in this part of Portugal, but lived locally in Hastings for the past 7 yrs but is returning home with all of us, has sent a latest picture looking out from the house across the garden and the vegetable/fruit area. It will be lovely to wake up and see the citrus growing from the bedroom window. Also four little palm trees which were transported from my garden here in the UK in pots have just been planted out for me. The weather sure looks beautiful

Did someone say grey? Dearie me, dull doesn't describe it. Rain incoming too. But at least it's mild eh?

Oh dear all starting to look very familiar this morning...

ECM still not letting go the idea of +ht Anomalies towards Scandinavia. Trying to view things from a glass half full perspective it is worth watching I think as all modelling suggests Atlantic troughing heading more south east in the coming days. At least this will bring some colder interludes as we draw air from further north in the Atlantic. If the ECM is onto something and we see a block appear to the north east then Atlantic trough disruption would be the next step. A long shot at the moment but the NH profile is not the worst with the weakness in the PV over the Siberian sector. At least we have a chance of a change in the medium term which I guess is better than looking at charts all saying raging zonalty.

I'm getting so fed up with talk of 'footprints' I think I'll go and look for Bigfoot, on Beccles common!

Ach nae bother, at least we have the cfs..that’s actually quite a cold southwesterly..yeah rite ., as I said, I’m very new to all this model malarkey!!..oops..lol

It probably applies more to America then us first = Pacific jet behavior. EC has very weak MJO but there are discussions on twitter that models are not seeing propagation trough maritime continent which may happen. For us any effect would be felt if MJO is to continue through western Pacific in to phase 7 at least to induce enough of a Rossby wave train to help promoting blocking to the north = raising AAM momentum. But the interference of La Nina easterlies may not help. That is why there was a debate about EP La Nina being better then CP La Nina. With CP La Nina it is unlikely that MJO would be favored to enter phases 7 and 8. With this configuration at the moment we have a hybrid Nina with ENSO region of 4 seen a slight moderation in recent weeks, but note sure weather overall easterly tropical element will permit MJO to effect European weather regimes. But perhaps if EC long range has initialized MJO parametres wrong then their zonal 46d would be probably wrong, that is the hope. Any MJO infuence may only be seen after Dec 10 in weather models.

Sixth air frost at 21.30 last night at 0.0C Then at 22.00 these showers came over and it rained at 0.2C.

Morning. Lowest achieved overnight here was 2.2c so no frost. Here is a view of another cut and paste, rinse and repeat job (whatever) for you to enjoy with your cornflakes! (or not)

But their was supposed to be the La Nina footprint so not unexpected. The reality is that despite La Nina, favourable IDO, uncoupled strat/Trop PV, solar minimum etc the Winter weather is the same as ever.

1c here with a ground frost and clear skies. A photo of the first wintry shower crossing the Firth for winter 20/21 in the early afternoon

Here comes the high..yay...oh wait a minute, Thu..that’s yesterday’s Gfs 12z op isn’t it..?..oops, my bad..I’m still new to all this you know!

I'll have the same please landlord!

Such a beautiful morning, I do wish I'd taken my proper camera with me, the iPhone had to do. It's so strange, I've been walking around my town every single day of the pandemic. It feels weirdly like not much time has passed because I've been unable to work at all since March, so the seasons changing is my only real reference for passing time now!

Looks like the bog-end of the GFS 00Z won't verify... surprisingly enough, the cold pool over near Scandi has completely disappeared... Poof!

Level 4 from teatime tonight so preparing to go out for a third-day-in-a-row lunch, but back into wellies and waterproofs today after smart shoes and tweed jacket yesterday. Temperature 8.8deg.C up from 2.7deg.C at 00:03, humidity 97%, very light southerly breeze with a max of 5mph, pressure 1024.3hPa falling, 2.2mm of rain today and there is total cloud cover.

Just sneaked below zero here and now a lovely frosty morning to briefly enjoy before temps rise and rain arrives this afternoon.

Day 10 ECM churns our something believable, even if you don’t want to believe it.

Morning. Oz gfs still playing with heights svalbard towards Iceland esp in fi. Looking at things Broad scale it may not take a lot of tweaking to get the jet better aligned and moving quicker south east towards sse Europe. Fine lines it would seem esp looking at the semi permanent high to Eastern Europe. Interesting I'd suggest going into December hopefully

Lawn satisfyingly crunchy for the first time I can remember since last winter. While I like the colours of autumn, it's just too squelchy. Great tae see snaw pics already; still cannae believe there's still been flooers in the gairden right up until now.