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Its coming into autumn now. If you want 12 months of summer then you are in the wrong country mate. GFS looks great this morning. Proper autumn weather at last.

Well, it's a good job this morning's GFS is shoving the -4'c/-5'c 850s down as far as Oxford later this month. Extraordinary cold northerly considering how early in the season it is, and how warm the planet is atm!!

Haha the coldies are out in force already...give it a rest. At what point did I say I expected 12 months of summer? There is still plenty of time for settled, reasonably warm weather. It's happened many times before in late September and into October.

We'd struggle to get a northerly that cold mid winter these days let alone late September!!

500 mb update Friday 18th Ec-gfs both show large -ve heights and a deep contour low in the uk area couple with gfs showing ridging/+ve heights Greenland area, much less so on ec,but both show lowish contour heights with a flow n of w into the uk Noaa has also gone, last evening for a large jump towards this idea. Not sure about this but wait for a couple more outputs although the 8-14 shows similar. Assuming all 3 models are in the right area then a cool/coldish unsettled spell for the next 2 weeks or so. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

I'm quite surprised how many are using the CFS to offer some kind of guidance moving this far forward. This model will do nothing but lead one up a massive Garden path! Not so sure about a mixed October. Tonight's EC weeklies does show a much more unsettled and cooler spell from next mid week.. It perhaps settles down a tad early the following week. Beyond this point a N/S split looks the most likely scenario with perhaps some of the unsettled Conditions spreading further SE at times... Out towards mid month and we still have indications of plenty of settled Conditions at times, and these perhaps more extensive at times.. All in all its not the worst of outlooks for the next few weeks... Early days being the only caveat! Still far to early to be talking of significant cold or Northern Blocking for me, but I will give an update of the EC46 anomalies at the beginning of October for any potential early signs of Winter. A very good night to you all.

Big increases in the Beaufort Sea are likely to mark the beginning to the refreeze season for Arctic sea ice.

Just had a glance at the 12z output, it doesn’t look like there is any escape from a much cooler and very unsettled spell from next midweek onwards but we may not have finished with summery conditions yet?..I haven’t fully gone across to the dark side..I mean cold side of the force just yet!

There’s something of a recovery towards the end of the ECM 12z operational as a ridge of high pressure from the west topples SE across the u k but it may only be temporary respite with another depression poised over Iceland but before that possibility, it becomes very unsettled and gradually much cooler for all, you could even call it cold, especially further north where it could become cold enough for snow on higher hills / mountains..for a time...a real shock to the system is on the way, the first major blast of autumn.

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, it’s best to make the most of the current benign, pleasant anticyclonic conditions as it looks like we will shortly be plunged into the depths of autumn with a very unsettled and much cooler spell..but, by day 10 there are glimmers of hope as the unsettled conditions gradually relaxes its grip and the Azores ridge begins to nose NE towards the south.

A week today on GEM. Fresh and breezy. Showers about I'd imagine

Morning all, most models now showing a rather cold and unsettled end of the month. This particular overview picture below indicates potential for some snow over the mountains of Northern Britain. C

What a cracking day it’s been! Although it was a chilly start at 5.8c, it topped out at 23.8 and made for a very pleasant lunch break. Spent the evening outdoors with the youth group but the grass was damp this week whereas the last couple of weeks we’ve been able to sit on it after dark. I hope this settled spell continues until the tattie holidays.

GFS 12z

Just looking through the GEM ensembles and one shows a warm up just after the cooler spell: And these are some of the other amazing perturbations - hoping for a very warm October

Yes, ECM mean clearly showing a particularly unsettled spell at T144: T240 and there is little signal at all, so all bets off here: It is about now that we look for one of those major changing seasons moments, in this case the last time we really feel the warmth of the sun before the descent into winter. This weekend may be it, but I wouldn’t write off one more resurgence of warmth turn of the month....AAM forecasts suggest this is possible.. Have a good weekend everyone. Mike

Poceirão Setúbal, Portugal- Damage - roofs, posts, uprooted trees. Other agricultural losses

Another beauty Enjoy this weather now a major deterioration coming midweek...

Ever so slight more of a breeze compared to yesterday but it's glorious once again. Why couldn't we get this during summer?!

Another stunning day here. Warm sunny and a hint of a breeze. May have eaten too much food yesterday at dinner. One large fish and chips for me and then i finished off what the kids left. Can't stand to see food go to waste, but the equivalent of 3 portions of fish and chips plus wine and beer is probably over doing it.. Happy Friday to you all and hope the weekend brings much joy and happiness.

A bright and sunny start to the day. At first I thought we have a clear sky but on second viewing there is some very high, thin cloud to the east. Temperature currently 9.2 deg.C, overnight minimum 6.6 deg.C at 06:40, relative humidity 95%, no wind, barometer at 1030.5 hPa (height adjusted), and no rain recorded in the past 24 hours.

It's still quite a long way out but the following keeps showing up around next weekend.... Not sure I'm ready for that quite yet.

It was another autumnal feeling misty morning here in North Yorkshire. A low of 5.8c here but some parts of the region had a ground frost.

What a nice day. Max. temperature was 20.7 deg.C at 13:16, now down to 16.2 deg.C, relative humidity 65%, no wind to speak of, barometer now falling slowly 1028.8 hPa, no rain all day.

Finished work for the week and sitting outside in the sun with a beer. Life doesn't get much better. Oh wait, I'm off Mon & Tue too, so it does get better.

Looking like a fantastic second half to September, proper Autumnal weather. So good to see a actually seasonal output at this time of year! Nothing to moan about at all.

Enjoying those ECM and GFS charts for mid-next week. A nice deep low right over the south for once, for my birthday on Weds (well, the day after, mostly). Possibly a named storm, too?

This mornings ECM chart @240 caught my eye: Could we be looking at a potential Azores-Scandi linkup here?! If not, it should bring some settled weather from that scenario at least with the Azores ridge.

BFTP... I know we frequently do not see eye to eye, but I have been following the developments of your graphics over on the ASIF. Can I say that they are superb? It certainly would seem that the end of the sea ice melt season will be declared in the Arctic later today when PIOMAS issues its half monthly statement. A gain of 104K km2 in extent on Jaxa seems to be based on the rapid infill in the Beaufort Sea as your graphics demonstrate. However whilst freezing will be rapid in the western Arctic (US side). I expect with current forecast conditions hardly any gains just yet in the East, whist the air temps remain so high there. DMI Arctic temps(above 80degrees) show the rocky path to an Arctic refreeze Whilst the Polarstern data shows the gradual lowering in the Polar region - https://www.awi.de/fileadmin/user_upload/MET/PolarsternCoursePlot/psobsedat.html The last column is the temperature in degrees Celsius. 89.1 107.4 20-09-18 08:00 4 330 -9.4 89.1 107.4 20-09-18 07:00 4 310 -9.4 89.1 107.2 20-09-18 05:00 4 310 -9.2 89.1 107.0 20-09-18 03:00 5 300 -9.1 89.1 107.0 20-09-18 02:00 4 290 -8.9 89.0 107.1 20-09-18 01:00 5 300 -8.8 89.0 107.2 20-09-18 00:00 5 290 -8.2 89.0 107.5 20-09-17 21:00 5 270 -7.7 89.0 107.5 20-09-17 19:00 4 280 -7.1 89.0 107.1 20-09-17 16:00 4 270 -6.8 89.0 106.9 20-09-17 14:00 3 230 -6.5 89.0 107.1 20-09-17 12:00 2 200 -6.2 89.0 107.8 20-09-17 09:00 1 360 -6.0 89.0 108.2 20-09-17 06:00 5 130 -5.1 89.0 108.8 20-09-17 00:00 9 130 -4.7 89.1 109.5 20-09-16 08:00 5 170 -4.0 Happy ice refreeze season to one and all. Now where is that snow? MIA

Pretty good agreement between the GFS and ECM for a significant change next week What a contrast from today to this time next week if this GFS frame verifies: And the ECM is in broad agreement: Very autumnal. And, remarkably, maybe even a little bit wintry over the higher Scottish regions

They can and definitely do effect the jetstream - this tweet from Mike Ventrice shows how a Typhoon in the Pacific a couple of weeks ago caused the heat in the western USA, the sudden drop of 37c to snow in a day in Colorado, and eventually the recent heatwave in Europe.

Latest ECM doesn’t look bad to me, plenty of cold developing and a continuing cold pool Greenland . Also there is a larger finger of cold air punching south further east. Classic very meridional jetstream, and mirrors very closely the year without a summer set up of 1816. Interesting indeed. BFTP

Pixels at last in Siberia. Further gains in Quebec

What a monster of a cane. 140mph, 945mb. Category 4! Teddy is forecast to approach Bermuda on Sunday night at category 3 strength.

I don't live there no well spotted but clearly know more about what's said by knowledgeable people over there on forums like these. And people in here are buffoons? I think that's a bit unfair. There's a lot of people in here that spend time & effort into the forum and these people clearly know their stuff. Netweather wouldn't be netweather without them.

A few CFS runs have been highlighted recently, but it is wise to view them as an ensemble rather than single runs at that range. Here’s the last 8 Z500 anomalies for December There’s some promise there, all but one give at least some semblance that northern blocking might play a part at some point. But still too far out to have any real idea. I think there is no point looking beyond December this far out, firstly because it is possible with weak La Niña, solar input, mixed QBO that we might get early cold this winter but so uncertain, secondly because what happens in December will affect the other months anyway.

Evening all The GFS 12Z evolution is a classic "winter" scenario as the remnants of Hurricane Teddy create WAA to the west of Greenland allowing a significant build of pressure. In response, the LP drops through the British Isles and a Scandinavian trough develops leaving the British Isles in a cool NE'ly. A lobe of HP breaks off from Greenland and heads SE through the British Isles to set up just to the south and return much more settled conditions. Worth noting we still have a significant Scandinavian trough and heights over Greenland so it ain't going to be warm but the Atlantic is much quieter.

June 2021?! I’m not even sure on the forecast for next weekend

Indeed very normal (from observing for decades) after the first equinoxial gales would often see the first snow on the mountains of the coming winter .

Hope everyone's ok? Sadly the temperatures have plummeted here in North Norfolk. Dropped by about 10degs from yesterday. Had a lightish shower for about 15 mins this morning then mostly grey with a chilly north east wind. Here's a few pics I took yesterday when we were out on the boat in a balmy 25C, not quite as warm as Monday which reached 28C Looks like it's going to be sunny for the next 5 or 6 days but still cooler with that that damn north east wind.

This should liven things up for next weekend

28 days blank, 184 for 2020, 70% Solar flux 70 Thermosphere: 3.49

Adjusted Flux Density 69.7 Adjusted Flux Density 70.4 = low

Car said 20C. Troon. Never been there before! And Finn's first beach experience as a grown-up. He was going mental!!!

Holidaying or cancelled in Greece, Medicane Ianos set to bring torrential rain, damaging winds and large waves. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10474-unusual-mediterranean-cyclone---medicane-ianos-brings-stormy-weather-to-greece

Deepening eyewall rotating around the center forming a weak eye feature. Dvorak curved pattern, probably a 4.0 though an argument might even be made for nearly 4.5 in terms of the raw number anyway. Using my 16 years of watching the tropics, I'd hazard this is around 65kts at the moment, maybe a touch less to allow ramp up time. However I really do hate the term medicane.... This is probably is/going to be a hurricane. I suspect Med countries don't want to have to open a basin in the Mediterranean (currently no one is responsible for this area, despite many weak/moderate systems now being recorded over the last 40 years). my cynical side is its all for tourism reasons which many of those countries depend upon heavily. Not a great look to suddenly be in a location that is at risk of a hurricane. A 'medicane' can just be discarded easier due to less association.

Looks like there's pretty solid agreement within the ensembles of a cooldown on the way now!

MOOB!

Again the Gfs, this time the 6z indicates a risk of September snaw..Shirley worth a BOOM..528 dam in sept is nothing to be sniffed at!!!!!!!️