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Holy guacamole! What a sight the 00z run is to wake up to. Basically getting stewed for a week with storms galore and 30+ degrees every day, with a few days shooting over 35c! Brace yourselves everyone, looks well and truly like we are on the verge of properly going into the furnace.

Arome going for 38c tomorrow over heathrow

A gradual yet continuous prolongment of the heat ...August certainly playing out as expected... I’m confident of a few records going under the bus next 5/8 days !!!

I know it has already been discussed but these midnight temperatures are quite something - that’s South Beach, Miami style nights. (Bit different scenery wise in London of course ) Glorious stuff - very jealous. Great Met Office forecast above @Daniel - fine example of the NW/SE Summer divide on Saturday.

GFS absolutely roasting in the south until at least Wednesday next week, with low to mid 30s every day. This is shaping up to be some heatwave.

This is such a delicious ECM 0z ensemble mean for the next week or so..I want to eat it!! ?️ To expand on my thoughts a little, it’s very summery, either very warm or hot with plenty of sunshine and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out at times..my idea of summer perfection, hottest further SE but actually, most of the u k gets a taste of summer at its BEST!!!

Slight increase in heat coverage and persistence from GFS and - as of +168 - ECM 00z runs. The thing that’s been a bit suspicious about mid-next week is the lack of a clear Atlantic trough approach - just a vast slack area to our west. The ECM 00z has changed that... and I wonder what the odds are that the trough approaches while far south enough that we see the hot air drawn north ahead of it, in a more traditional manner than having a broad heat low slowly drift up across the UK. Could be a sluggish affair even then - hot through Thu/Fri. A possibility to watch.

EC looks hot and increasingly humid as we head through the weekend ... Fingers crossed for some decent thunderstorms...

Arpege maxima Tomorrow - 35c but widespread from London up through central parts of east Anglia. Saturday - 36c south of London (possibly somewhere like Guildford). Sunday - 36c similar spread of temperatures to Saturday. Monday - 37c the heat is much more widespread across the south east and East Anglia. Just a note - Looks like todays maxima was 29c across parts of London, looks like the temperatures were a little higher than expected. Cloud amounts looks variable after tomorrow as well, so some places could get lucky in areas where the heat is forecast to be highest. Thunderstorms are increasingly likely as time goes on and of course short waves could appear to increase this risk at short notice.

To day 6 GFS - hot UKMO - Even hotter In seriousness the entire UKMO has the risk of 35c being reached or exceeded on every day. 18c isotherm still over the east on Wednesday. That is six days. The GFS slowly mixes out the heat a little and introduces more instability but not really a return to westerlies.

UKMO pretty consistent on the passage of events early next week. Looks like by Wednesday we may start to see a more significant area of low heights form at it begins to interact with that shallow Atlantic trough. So perhaps a more widespread outbreak of showers and thunderstorm developing by midweek, however the timing of this is uncertain and will be more drawn out than the normal set up due to how far north the main arm of the jetstream is going. By the way, yet again temperatures will be hot to very hot across the south with this extending northwards during the first part of next week. GFS also looking god for the first half of next week too, however it is still struggling to get the proper shape of the longwave pattern right with that weaker southern arm dipping into the Bay of Biscay. Just a random little note about the GFS, it has a high of 33C for Friday, but 34C on Saturday. So five, perhaps six days where 32C+ could be reached in the south in a row. More limited in the north of course. Also a few posts have been hidden from last night, please refrain from making personal comments please. Thank you

Well I’ve just looked at the GEFS 0z mean and all I can say is WOW!!..in a nutshell it’s summery from start to finish, indeed it’s very summery for much of it!..it seems the best of summer is still to come..I’m so much excited!?️

Pretty spectacular to see 850s averaging 17/18c for a week straight! The next week is going to be stifling in places, especially as humidity increases into next week!

You are not wrong Tam's Looking at this evenings output it is an upgrade in terms of prolonging the heat now into mid next week with heat low/s trapped in the heat makes for fascinating output to discuss,whats not to like suntan ready:- check waterproof mac ready:- check BBQ ready:- check camera ready:- check bring on those hot temps with the thunderstorms a latest look at the cpc anomaly's... as you where really with what it has been showing over the last few days with +ve heights to our NE west of Scandinavia with -ve heights over Iberia/NW Spain,upper flow SW backing west later although slight differences with surface conditions from last evening with flow from the SE then backing ESE,looking warm to hot first 6-10 days at least and last from me with regards to cloud,temps and PPN,forget it trying to solve this a few days out even by the next day have a good evening

For those of us hoping the sunshine / heat / humidity / thunderstorms / warm / very warm sunny anticyclonic conditions just goes on..and on..and on into late August, the GEFS 6z certainly shows potential for that to happen..and let’s face it, I’m sure most of us do since autumn starts next month..let’s make hay while sun shines!!!?️

Ecm this morning has a few changes - first, raw temps for Saturday (34C) are now higher than Friday (33C) - as noted many times, add somewhere between 2 and 4 degrees to this, occasionally even 5, and you'll probably get the actual maximum. Sunday much more widely hot across the southern half but slightly down on Saturday. Monday to Wednesday have raw maxes between 30 and 32, so Wednesday comes back into the "heatwave fold", but not record breaking potential on those days now, at least on this run! Worth bearing in mind - models don't particularly like easterlies so short teem variance is to be expected - more extensive thundery areas could crush those maximums next week at very short notice - can we please stop knocking the NWP. Anomaly charts are great for trends but they can't tell me what weather I might get on a certain day, which the NWP does very well (usually) within 6 days.

The last post from me today, got my bugle / trumpet ready! Just wanted to say, looking at the ECM 12z operational it’s not just the SE that’s hot for most of next week..unless I’m misreading the charts, they show nationwide summery conditions with hot sunshine but also a risk of T-Storms too..?️ PS...I’m happy for you guys in the SE, you deserve this roasting hot spell, enjoy it!...stunning output across the board..our summer has been officially rescued following last months filth!!!

Metoffice for next couple days

GFS 12Z at T+384: a fine end to sixteen days' stonkerocity!

The GEFS 6z mean is..OMG..SENSTIONAL..see I can’t even spell sensational!..hats off too Tamara..get ready for a summertime special!?️

For the SE the models suggests we are going to see one of the most sustained hot spells we've seen. It may not have the length of the crazy 76 spell, but a realistic chance that 32c is breached for 5 days in a row. Far from impossible that most days get close to or above 35c in that little run as well. Very stagnant heat coming up for the SE and there is going to be little relief from it once it's here. Beyond that strengthening hints of a cool down of sorts but watch this space on that front...

Evening all I confess I'm NOT looking forward to the next few days of heat down here in lowland East London. I am hoping the Estuary will provide a little cooling breeze which means the east of the capital is usually a degree or so cooler than the west in scenarios like this. Tomorrow looks like being the hottest day and values of 35-37c are being widely forecast for London. Will it be hotter than last Friday? Given we are almost exactly seventeen years on from the 2003 heatwave, a value of 38c can't be ruled out and if the record went tomorrow I wouldn't be surprised though having three of the four hottest days on record within a 14 month period should be of note. :Looking a little further on into early next week and our old mate Arpege keeps the oven full on for Monday: That suggests to this observer a less than cloudless aspect but perhaps not. Humidity is surprisingly low and I do know that when we get LP over Iberia it doesn't stop the skies being clear and the sun shining strongly and maybe this is the same so colour me confused. GFS is much less keen on Monday heat: I have to say I'm none the wiser - lowish humidity with lowish pressure. No one seems to be ruling out a shower or a thunderstorm whether home-grown or imported. Maybe the Humidity Index is more indicative of how unpleasant it's going to be in my part of the world. To cap it all, we're going for a roast lunch on Saturday - mad dogs and Englishmen as they say....

Remarkable temps for Southern coastal counties on Saturday! A few local records going, I suspect?

A definate marked NW-SE split coming up. The heat concentrated in the SE, apart from tomorrow which will bring fairly widespread heat through central and eastern parts but not further west, the outlook looks a modest warm spell. A shift in the airstream key reason, a cooler NE flow. Ahead of this in the SE the flow is off a warm continent. Whilst a potential exceptional hot spell will be experienced in the SE, this is not looking like a classic nationwide hot spell.

Just look at this for Monday though. 37c showing again on Arpege!!

Absolutely bonkers stuff yet again being churned out. I’m pretty sure that this would warrant the top level of a heatwave emergency? 4 consecutive days of maximums above 32 and not dropping below perhaps 22-23c. Awesome to look at on the face of it. But a nightmare for the vulnerable I’m afraid. You’d like to think that the government will be keeping a close eye on this situation.. heat related incidents and exhaustion would be inevitable given the humidity to factor in, and hospitals really should be preparing for this, with water and ice availability at a minimum.

Ukmo is special , I know uppers are not everything but oh boy .

Oh my... NetWx NMM for next Wednesday! Wouldn't be surprised if we saw record breaking temperatures based on that 12z run.

The difference in uppers between the GFS and the parallel at just T42 on the 6z runs is quite ridiculous:

UKV has done well for today so far - see post above. Hopefully start that run of 30C today! 29C maybe more realistic though. (Recent UKV still going for a high of 29C later) 36C+ is definitely still on for tomorrow and probably Saturday as well! Friday 14:00 Saturday 15:00 Low twenties for me but keeping an eye on this band of showers - could be thunderstorms/downpours sweeping across parts of Scotland tomorrow. (Met Office mention thundery showers in my regional forecast) Bit of cloud bubbling up in the SW - wee risk of something popping up! As ever take any cloud cover/precipitation charts at this range with a pinch of salt! Have a good day! Edit: Heating up!

Metoffice going for 37c

re this Anomaly charts are great for trends but they can't tell me what weather I might get on a certain day, which the NWP does very well (usually) within 6 days. I do agree that, good as it is to see folk looking and using these charts, sometimes the summary of what the poster says they show is, in my view, not really correct. As MWB posts they are not for surface detail at all. They can, when used carefully, give a very good idea of what the general weather is likely to be in the 6-10 day range and can be useful in the 8-14 day outlook also..

GFS explodes thunderstorms across the Midlands /N England/E Wales Sunday night

Just had a look at gfs for here in Southampton it has 30cFriday 33cSaturday sunday32c Monday33c Tuesday33c Wednesday33c These are all adding 1c so could be more. Most intense prolonged heat for some years take care guys!

Still no sense of direction for next week beyond hot, humid and thundery ....... probably ..... well certainly for the first couple days trying to pin down what that upper trough will do in the upcoming set up is proving more than a little difficult for the nwp ....

MetOffice App - Heathrow. Friday: 37C Saturday: 37C Sunday: 36C Monday: 36C Tuesday: 36C Wednesday: 36C Thursday: 33C

Haven't been here much over last few days and just had a look at the CAPE and LI for next week and it's looking very juicy

This would be decent for many. Scorching day followed by overnight storms. Monday 15:00 Monday 21:00 Tuesday 00:00 Tuesday 03:00 Hopefully it becomes reality!

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12z GEM is a beauty @126

UKV slightly lower for Saturday than earlier but now showing much more widespread temperatures well into the 30’s.

Met Office weather app for Heathrow showing: Friday 36C/21C Sat 36C/18C Sun 35C/19C Mon 35C/20C Tue 35C/19C Wed 33c/19C Which is SIX days of 33C or above

PJB over on UKWeatherWorld has posted a good explanation of what to possibly expect next week: "Good indications now for a surface & upper pattern to become established over NW Europe which would favour the development of Thunderstorms from Sunday through to Mid Week. A broad upper trough is likely to become quite slow moving to the west of the continent with a plume of very high 850mb temperatures to move north from Spain and France, Aloft however there will be areas of steeper or cooler mid level temperatures and 300-600mb shortwaves moving NE on the ascending side of the trough. At the surface High temperatures and areas of high Theta-w at 850mb are likely to be located in the South and SE for much of the period. Areas of elevated confluence and destabilisation are likely to take place during the period and i suspect quite difficult to forecast much more than 24 hrs ahead. Forecasting this will be quite tricky 1. How much moisture there is and how dry the lower layers get, models can at times in the 4-5 day range over do the model precipitation. 2. ECMWF has tended to overdo CAPE values and the development of Thunderstorms in the previous model cycle. Will be interesting to see how this new model cycle performs in the next few days given its had enhancements to the models CAPE and convection processes. 3. GFS has trended west with the development of a more active thundery plume development during mid week as a more robust shortwave moves north and pressure falls at the surface over N France and English Channel. Movement and development of such shortwave detail is prone to sig forecast errors at this range 4. Potential is there for some intense thunderstorms to develop over NW Europe with development of a Mid level wind max over parts of Central & Southern Parts early next week and considerable directional and speed sheer aloft 5. day to day variations in the models are likely with precipitation being developed in the model widely over differing locations inter model and intra model." Source: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/124384-convective-chat-august-2020/page__st__15

Gfsp goes for 37 tomorrow Heathrow area and 37 Saturday towards gravesend area in Kent both days in the south east widely 35/36 also extremely warm night Friday night some parts no lower than 25 degrees, stay hydrated all

UKV now has 35°C at midday on Saturday which would probably mean Saturdays high would end up higher than the 35°C it shows for tomorrow if it went out further Also still showing 27°C at midnight tomorrow night.

An ever so slight tone-down for tomorrows heat, possibly due to a slightly faster encroachment of the upper cloud. Still looking good though for a 35-36c IMO, maybe a 37c in favoured hotspots. What is increasingly evident is the models are now increasing temperatures throughout the Sat-Wed period. Saturday looks ever bit as hot as Friday is now in terms of max temperature and with a wider reach of 28-30c into the Midlands. I suspect we are about to see at least a 5 day period with maxes above 90F. Beyond that and the temperatures are subject to quite large changes depending on just how much convection can kick off. Whilst the models have a habit (especially the GFS) of overdoing convection, the risk certainly looks there, especially further north you go. In terms of long lasting very hot temperatures, the 06z for the SE is about a good run as I've ever seen within 168hrs!

Gfs 6z now keeping 30s till next Friday for southern areas

Gfs for next Wednesday is baking mid 30s widely across Southern England

Gfs 18Z is very hot for SE, and hot for some others too - the potential heat shouldn't be underestimated - it is extremely difficult to get the GFS to show 30C+ on its raw output even in top-grade plumes, so for it to show 31-33C maxes five days in a row, between D2 & D6, is really exceptional. I don't expect the UK record to go in this period, but equally it wouldn't shock me if it did.

Gfs keeping the very warm air into Wednesday across Southern and South eastern parts