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I don't understand why temperatures need to be blast furnace level for people to feel satisfied. Mid 20s and settled is perfectly acceptable and useable.

So my take on this outrageous ECM run - taking raw values and adding 2-4C to get nationwide highest temps: Thurs 30-32 Fri 34-36 Sat 35-37 Sun 33-35 Mon 36-38 Tues 38-40 (FORTY) Weds 37-39 It's easy to forget this is the best verifying model in the world. Could it really happen? Feels like a dream.

I admit especially to tuning out of individual operational outputs, but more especially the GFS which provides too much of a distraction with its intra day vicissitudes and inconsistencies when trying to look at trends day on day. To put it another way, I would conserve energy and not spend much time at all poring over intra day details - especially with so much erratic continuity each and every 6 to 12 hours. Most especially several days away. From my own viewpoint things are shaping up still for an excellent spell of summer weather. The earlier attempts by GFS operationals and a minority of its ensembles to wedge a trough between the Scandinavian high pressure and the Azores ridge to the west is redolent of the default regime we have moved away from (for a time anyway) and is typical GFS bias in these type of situations to want to overplay Atlantic ridging. This has the effect of lowering pressure too much downstream c/o excessive retrogressive pull which over weakens the "bridging" between the two anticyclones. In some respects, and this was alluded to in a post of mine last week, we are are likely to see the opposite trend of the bulk of the summer so far, for a little while, whereby NWP (more especially GFS) might be over progressive with negative momentum bias and will be coerced into re-adjusting upwards increase of pressure on strength of downstream ridging rather than the opposite trend of the summer to date to overdo Azores ridging eastwards and then incrementally retract it afterwards.. There is bound to be something of a rinse/repeat element to the upcoming very warm/hot spell but the transitioning ridge from the Azores to take over from an existing downstream ridge (to then become the renewed downstream ridge) is a classic evolution of some of the more extended very warm spells in summers at this latitude. With that in mind, I think the weekend sequence is rather a distraction to the fact that prospects look very warm, in general, for a rather longer time instead of extremely hot for a shorter period of time. There is a reasonable chance that the relatively cooler North Atlantic air encroaching into the northern half of the UK at the weekend will "warm out" heading into next week as the renewed anticyclone absorbs the heat advection from the continent. The first half of August is increasingly looking very promising. Uncertainty grows thereafter in terms of possible return to default - as the superimposition of the eastward progression of the high frequency MJO forcing on the pattern completes its orbit. This MJO wave is presently cutting off the upstream Pacific amplification process that has been the spoiler for NW European downstream pattern this summer. Once it fades and its influence is removed, then the low frequency walker cell across Africa and the Indian Ocean resumes charge of proceedings. When that happens, easterly inertia will be added back to the atmospheric circulation from the tropics into the extra tropics as torque tendency switches negative which in turn will promote falling angular momentum - and cue re-amplification upstream. This signal, in basic synoptic terms, for this part of the Northern Hemisphere would likely be indications of the main upper heights shifting decisively westwards and a trough migrating around the perimeter with pressure falling more generally across NW Europe and Scandinavia. However, as stated yesterday, that is subject to further clarity at this distance and can wait for another time. Its time to enjoy summer proper for many

What the ECM is doing with Monday/Tuesday next week is slightly terrifying. It's trapped the plume over the low countries over the weekend and now it's being sucked back into the England. The temperature record would probably go on this run.

Piping hot runs this evening! Unbelievable stuff for the SE especially. UKV for Saturday 12:00 and 15:00 Standard stuff at the moment...35C! I am getting excited about all of this and I don’t even live down there!

Hi guys, your doing a great job with this next upcoming Hot spell, having a difficult time of it right now, but this place is at least relieving some of the stress.. ECM not following GFS at 120hrs..its on its own as per usual... Still looking good for sure..

Never fear the Navgem is here and Scotland joins in on the heat party on this run

My "adjusted raw" maximums from the ECM 00Z (this is the nationwide maximum, not the temperatures across a wide area) Thursday 30-32C (the maximum will be within these values) Friday 33-35C Saturday 34-36C However, if a similar adjustment is needed as we saw last Friday, then 36-38C cannot be discounted. Thereafter, the ECM maintains heat in the south west and, by Tuesday, for much of the southern half, with temperatures in the 32-35C range on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday. But that's completely subject to change. I don't think we can be completely sure what will happen with this Atlantic "wave" for Saturday anyway - it's so small, it might not even happen. I think it'll be tomorrow before we start to get confidence with it.

As the usual fans of heat are salivating, I think we can assume there's plenty in the evening output to get them excited. I'll cast my somewhat more jaundiced view over the gruel dished up thus far: ECM 12Z certainly brings a spell of very warm weather starting from Friday and especially for southern areas. The 20c 850hpa briefly crosses the south coast on Tuesday so that looks the peak of the heat before at T+240 it all eases away. As for the synoptics, as the HP builds into Scandinavia, the air source swings from NE through E to SE bringing up the heat but as the trough takes over the air becomes more unstable - a nice storm for midweek next week? Now, as for GFS 12Z OP, let me introduce you to chalk vs cheese as we compare ECM at the same time: GFS brings the Azores HP back in from the Atlantic keeping all that "lovely" heat trapped to the south. Probably more settled with GFS - the problem is if you want the heat you want the HP to the east, not to the SW. Here's GEM at T+192: There you have it - at T+192 three wildly divergent evolutions. A more pronounced trough so showers or thunderstorms for many especially in the south. Anyone who is banking on record temperatures next week better hope ECM is correct - and you'd be foolish to dismiss it - but I wasn't convinced yesterday and I'm not convinced today.

The difference between the UKMO and GFS at just T96 is laughable. But the UKMO is rarely wrong at T96 - T144 yes, T120 sometimes, but T96, no. The GFS, on the other hand, can only be trusted with Atlantic lows at T72.

ICON now minises the wave into non existence- This is one of the key ingredients for end of week if we are aiming at the record ICON is hot hot hot

Guys - @mb018538 Dont take the upper air number as absolutes in terms of conversion at the surface. +20c is not the deal breaker... +19c is enough if the flow is dry enough & the lowest part of the air is anomalously warm due to dry soil along the journey to the UK - Also stationary air is key. Remember -20c in winter with -5c isotherm over the snow fields is a similar example in Winter...

GFS has now pretty much fallen in line with ECM just a bit further East with the wave. Further corrections west expected.

And... the GFS 00Z presents what would, under more normal circumstances, be classed as a bit of a stonker! And don't be put off by talk of winds off the North Sea: we had a very fresh ESE, last Friday, that only pegged temps back to 31C! Even the ENE hoolie, back in April gave us 22C and glorious sunshine... The GFS op is clearly on the colder side of the GEFS temp ens... but is by no means cold! And, just to remind everyone... we're not in Portugal!

This 12z ECM run has got to be my favourite run of this summer. Potentially record-breaking heat, as well as that nearby low potentially sparking big thunderstorms for a few days. @240

MetO showing 37c on their graphics on Friday. These will also most likely upgrade nearer the time.

ECM clusters this morning. First T96 - this shows the "straight line" southerly on the 500mb lines (well almost!), the classic sign of a plume). I think this was first picked up by the clusters 7 days ago - so a good prediction in this case: Now the slightly messy bit next Saturday. This is where 500mb charts might not be so useful because the "wave" feature is so small, but the following charts for T132 and T156 do show to some extent how the weather could be affected by small margins: So I think the key is to look where the lines bend back west after the first little wave approaching Scotland encroaches. Particularly useful is to follow the 582 line. By T132, clusters 1,2,3 and 5 all seem as if they will introduce some westerly air to northern areas; cluster 4 may only do that for the far north, and cluster 6 hasn't allowed any westerly influence in yet. By T156, in clusters 1 and 4, the 582 line bends back south - this would stop the less warm air reaching southern areas and allow continental air to return quickly. Clusters 2, 3 and 5 aren't far off doing the same thing, but perhaps less clear-cut if we will return straight into continental influence Cluster 6 never really changes the direction of the flow at all and might keep it hot in the south-east throughout (those seeking a new UK record would be pinning their hopes on this very small cluster trumping the others - unlikely though!). If one ignores the intensity of heat question, though, what we most likely see is a very quick return to settled and warm/very warm conditions for all parts of the UK by T156. By T192, only one cluster, but a good positive anomaly over the UK, and lines straight from the south again - so continuing settled and probably increasingly warm/hot again as we approach the middle of next week. Even by T264 (into the following weekend), yet again we see riging anomalies just to the north/east of the UK, signs of a weak trough to the SW and yet more of those 500mb lines straight from Iberia - which could mean yet another plume injection at this stage! I think the overall picture, on most days between D3 and D11, is either very warm, hot or very hot. Give or take a couple of "off days", it's a great set-up for a heatwave!

Just comes down to preferences. Fair play to @CreweCold, he doesn’t like extreme heat and makes no bones about it. You also get those in winter who hate extreme cold. I would never criticise anyone for having a weather preference, except where they pick and choose charts to show that preference, even when all other output suggests the opposite. The ECM is a very good run overall, and the undercut never really takes hold.

Ah. That’s a hot one from ECM for the southern third of England. Four days with mid-30s potential is no joke, indeed it’s seriously concerning for those vulnerable to heat exhaustion or worse. The hotter trend from ECM means alarm bells are ringing for me. Will be a fascinating spell of weather if it happens though. Conflicted emotions - I must separate them from model analysis, Tamara-style!

When it comes to models/charts forecasting thunderstorms in advance for the UK...it is always best to just look out the window/radar on the actual day. They are absolutely useless nine times out of ten! Friday was a close call for the SE - thunderstorms just off the coast. (Thanks to @staplehurst from Convective weather) July was a pretty poor month in general. There is a recurring theme this Summer of SE England hogging all the warmth/heat...only for the storms to break out everywhere else! SW Scotland and NW England (June) for example which is quite bizarre.

Bank! Keep posting these Mark as it is always nice to dream! Really glad the last day of July brought that exceptionally hot day - something to discuss in the future when we look back on an otherwise very bland Summer month. (Against the 1981-2010 Anomaly) First below average month of the year for the UK as a whole...December the next one!?

the last few runs have moderated the expectations re temp records around next weekend - not gone completely as we know from experience that changes in the nwp that appear modest can have big consequences. However, the period of dig south in the Atlantic trough required to push the 20c isotherm across us has lessened and the forecast shape of the surface/upper ridge changed as a result. Infact, we could end up in a pattern where our airflow remains ostensibly off the North Sea whilst Europe swelters ......... its not like it didn’t happen before .........

It could feel more like a nightmare if you don’t like heat, humidity and sweating like a pig!..but..if you do like / love heat..you couldn’t ask for better charts than the ECM 12z operational shows, and the mean looks amazing, for a mean!?️

If this isn’t an outlier, then I’ll wear a pair of Chris’ dodgy shorts! Have ECM and GFS ever been this far apart?

This is a HOT run. @192

UKMO and ECM in virtual tandem through T96, T120, T144. Also, the ECM has been very consistent through 3 runs now. Usually a winning combination. With Saturday at just T120 now, we might well be looking at two days in a row in the region 35C, or even a touch higher. If the undercut from the north sea doesn't reach the south coast on Sunday, you could make that three days in a row. Edit: just seen Monday's chart, make that four days. Could become five.

Beautiful ECM this evening chaps. . Looks warm to hot widely with HP in charge.

Aperge surface air temperatures for 8am Friday. I’m guessing the chart for the afternoon may be a touch on the warm side.

Morning - Location wise for me the ECM is amazing today with a sustained hot spell, & for the UK as a whole the ECM is the best bet. The divergence between ECM > GFS ( which incidentally keeps sticking out as a cold outlier ) is driven by how much the trough develops at day 5 & with that how far is drives the colder air SE. The ECM at 120 is showing just a small wave which trickles into the NW & exits out across wales & the SW This does introduce cooler air however its overall impact on the hot plume over England is somewhat limited - The GFS on the other hand shows a lot more energy coming over the top - very progressive allowing the cooler air to mix across the whole of the UK Based on recent performance of the Euros V GFS then the firm favourite is the ECM - however at day 5 it could be that the meeting point is 80/20 to Euro meaning 'slightly' more cooler air influence than the Euro portrays....

Morning all UKV delivers 32C on Thursday and still sticking with 35C on Friday - subject to change at this range. Thursday 12:00 and 15:00 Friday 12:00 and 15:00 In the short term...lovely Autumn day up here tomorrow with coastal gales and heavy rain! Have a good day everyone!

It's been a reasonable few days weather wise in Cannich but nothing fantastic. Temps in the mid to upper teens but a lot of cloud. Nothing much in terms of rain though so for that reason alone I won't complain. Went for a cycle with the youngest yesterday up past Tomich and the across the hill on forestry tracks to Loch Bienn a' Mheadhoin and back down Glen Affric via Dog Falls. A nice little 15 or so mile route but barely within my current fitness levels, especially the climb over the hill.

It's a bit like waiting ages for a London bus (in this case the Big 100)... and then three come along at once!

This is even hotter than the 12z of a couple of days ago.

Can probably add a further 2-3 degrees to the ECM raw temperature values. Although it was 5 degrees too low last Friday.

Jeez only 99F?..so disappointed!!! Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, most of the first half of August looks very summery, certainly compared to what we had in most of July...lots to look forward to!

Maybe they’ve taken note from last Friday, and expect the airmass to be super-heated as it as a week ago. 37c a week after 38c is mental.

Saturday looks potentially even hotter on the computer model suite to me.

As mentioned above, the GFS 06Z follows the EUROs for Saturday by making a lot less of the wave to the north - hot in the south again with mid 30s possible both Friday/Saturday, though still cooler and showery in the north on Saturday (I still think there's time for that to change). However, the GFS is never keen on keeping things simple and finds a blob of rain to stick over England for Sunday - for comparison, the ECM has mostly clear skies over central areas on that day!

Just looked at metoffice app it has London Heathrow Thursday 32 Friday 36 Saturday 36 Sunday 32, 2 days in a row at 36 I think is remarkable.

Monday 3 August Taking a look at all 3 outputs ec-gfs and changes from what wa shown over the past 2-3 days regarding the height rises and ridging out of Europe. Ec still has ridging/heights from France but now a soread of heights w-e right across from n America into n Russia with the trough about 20W; gfs has very slight ridging from w of uk into more pronounced n Scandinavia/n Russia with a flattish troughsouth of Greenland w-e. Quite how this change will affect uk weather is 6 days away and this is the first such pattern and difference between them following the w/e agreement on all 3, see Net Wx notes. Noaa is now showing a much more rounded trough, still with reasonable height rises over/ene of the uk but less of the pull of air off Europe. So there are changes likely to be having effect from the end of this week. How long this altered pattern lasts we have to wait and see. But any longer term surface high and heat lasts is open to doubt for sure. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how these 3 charts develop over the coming week. The Noaa 8-14 follows on the 6-10 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Fabulous 00z runs if you are wanting summer weather .. Temps in the main warm to hot on EC,GFS is another outlier surprise surprise.. A decent first half of August looks a good shout..

Could well end up being a convective feedback issue, its certainly a problem with the GFS in the past in more tropical type airmasses and being a little overzealous with the instability actually present. It looks like it creates a decent thermal low which again maybe quite questionable to what extent that actually happens. Friday IMO probably is another 34-36C type day, of course IF we keep the flow going on Saturday and the uppers hold long enough, we will be in a position on Saturday in the SE to get somewhere close to the 37-38c we saw last week and also August 10th 2003. Regardless of what happens, I'd suspect the usual upgrading in temperatures to occur as we move closer to the time, and the current forecasts maxes of 31-32c to slowly shift upwards as the week rolls on. I'd be surprised if somewhere doesn't at least get to 35c given the time of year, flow over a now more reasonable temperature channel and also heat over Europe.

Assuming the corrections are west & North the heat is just a snip away to the SE I doubt we will drop below the 30s maxima Sunday

The ECM 00z is a hot run for southern England Fri-Sun and Tue-Wed (& counting - model run ends), widely hitting high 20s to low 30s in the raw data. Mon is cooler but still hits the mid-high 20s if accounting for model bias. Also factoring in bias: Middle-third of UK sees high 20s to low 30s Fri, then away from N Sea coasts it’s mid-high 20s each day except Mon which is low-mid 20s. So, a very warm spell overall. As a whole it’s a warmer/hotter run than the 12z of yesterday, as the high to the west doesn’t inflate as rapidly before building across N UK, and the shallow low to the south roots itself further west which keeps the flow more easterly in the far south. UKMO inflates that high even less while it’s to the west and has that more west LP position, so it would likely be a hotter outcome. With the overland winds I think central-southern areas could be in for an exceptional run of temps by regional standards.

Some people like the heat? Mid 20s is fine by me too, but if we’ve got very hot upper air over the UK, I want it hot please!

ECM doesn’t quite get the hot air in as quickly as the UKMO today. Comparing the two - UKMO has the 16c line in by Friday 00z, ECM is 14c at the same time. As a result, the raw data today only has 30-31c on Friday, which is a couple of degrees down. Saturday looks hotter on this run, with a large area of 32c on raw data.

Morning crew! Starting to get a better feel on where we are headed. GFS is again an outlier this morning, so I’ll ignore it off the bat: Thursday to Saturday look hot, with the low to mid 30s likely Friday and Saturday. The SE corner may squeeze another very warm day out on Sunday, though conditions turning much fresher in the NW (for a time anyway) as the high re orientates. UKMO looks good for a reload/rebuild of pressure into the following week too:

The gfs is miles better than the 12z as we know it was a cooler outlier from days 5/6 trough lift's out futher north at day 6 then a Scandi/Azores link up from then,days 7/8 and still looking good beyond that,day 10 please don't be a warm outlier this time

GFS 18z is slightly hotter on Saturday than 12z over a wider area.

And a last one from me for now is the latest from cpc 6-10/8-10 day outlook,EPS and gefs at day ten all pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet in my book with downstream trough in the Atlantic with upstream hp cell towards Scandinavia,this could be a more prolonged warm/hot spell than the one just gone,lets see how it goes in the next few days.