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Excuse the self-quoting and the extent of the re-post but over two weeks further on in time, it is surely interesting to revisit this as a means to demonstrate how the utilisation of the global wind-flow and angular momentum budgets can prove highly useful in gaining clues when NWP gets carried away by negative momentum inertia and is blind-sided to the sudden switches in global inertia that lie hidden around a future corner. Hence, akin to the dropping of a red hot potato in the hand, the volte face of the retracted Atlantic ridge and downstream trough that blighted most of July. The largest westerly inertia push since the Spring is underway. Steadily rising frictional torque tendency within the tropics is finally engaging mountain torque tendency within the extra tropics Based on the low level of global momentum up to this time, this injection of wind-flow c/o rising torques within both the tropics and extra tropics has created a very strong rally angular momentum tendency set against such a below average level vs parity. This has been the cue for the models to ditch the persistent Pacific amplification evident since the start of the summer and re-configure the downstream pattern. The end of week plume this past Thursday and especially Friday has been just the opening salvo - much as anticipated in recent posts. The Global Wind Oscillation, a plot phase depiction of global wind-flow inertia, reflects the sharp uptick in momentum and underpins the pattern re-configuration with the downstream ridge tendency that is returning to NWP c/o an orbit dash out of the La Nina attractor phases and into Phase 4 for the first time since the start of summer This feedback builds towards the programming of the substantial heat ridging development through this week The wavelength/timeline of the downstream switch augurs better for at least the first half of August fortunes. The test will be how quickly the default low frequency signal across Africa and the Indian Ocean regains authority and starts to re-amplify upstream once more. However, that is for another time. Very good support for a phase of very warm/hot weather, and with the nuisance upper trough displaced sufficiently away to provide good injections of hot continental air. As stated the other day, secondary low pressure systems will provide interplay with the downstream ridge and this ups the chances for thundery activity including elevated importations c/o some destabilisation over the Spanish plateau. However, for the period under discussion at least, harder for cool North Atlantic air to make the ease of inroads so far east as seen so far this summer. The extent and intensity of the heat advected from southern europe is of course a subject of great interest from a meteorological point of view. From an enjoyment summer perspective many will be grateful for some stunning seasonal weather and it won't matter if temperature records are broken. Very warm evenings for sitting outside with dinner and some glasses of wine will be greatly savoured. Hopefully this will become a familiar form of relaxation when, eventually all being well, I arrive here at a new home an hour from Lisbon. Just got to get the builders in to provide a pool! But first of all fingers crossed that the deposit gets safely paid this coming week:

What’s your point in being on here then? Must have imagined the models picking up Friday’s hot spell a week in advance. What a nonsense comment.

A reason touted for the heat 'extreme' we got last week is that the lowest part of the column of air at the surface was heated by the anomalous warmth & dryness of the soil over France & Spain- With nothing changing over the next week or so in terms of that Factor - what normally might be a range of 33-36 in this set up might suddenly become 35-38 ... Something to consider when asking why the models keep underdoing the TMax in southerly winds -

This is the extent of my confidence so far. Thursday / Friday, I'm very confident it will be hot with the maximum figure between 30C and 36C in Central / Eastern England. Saturday, I'm fairly confident though not 100% that it will be very hot with a maximum between 33C and 38C. Sunday onwards, no, I'm not confident.

Afternoon all! 06z GFS is a very good run today - it has some heat stalled for 8 days, along with the 16c isotherm in the south. It's also showing some thunderstorms come Saturday. ECM is also very good and will also probably show thunderstorms on Saturday with that low out in the Atlantic. 18c isotherm on the south coast too: Other models like the GEM and ICON are superb. GEM is the best with the 20c isotherm in England - even getting up to Yorkshire! So in my opinion there will be a heatwave coming - it's just a matter of how hot it will get. Great posts once again here guys (Tamara especially!) Going to go downstairs and have some of my birthday cake now.

It's not just the Southeast.. many places will see high temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

GFS steps towards the UKMO solution with a curvature of isolines coming out of Europe SSE HOT !

Just been sent this from Hartlepool

That’s a little odd - this is what I sent to someone on Thursday 23 ref an outdoor wedding planned for tomorrow in the nw I could only say that based on what I had seen in the models ... nothing is set in stone and the secret is to look at the models day to day and get a feel for the direction of travel - it’s a digital representation of the atmosphere, not a recipe for making a cake !!

GFS is a massive....... I can think of a few words to follow massive to be honest. Stick with UKMO and EC and you won't be far wrong.

Compared to nearly the entirety of July..which was crud!!! what a SUPERB ECM 0z ensemble mean for most of the first half of August ( plus plenty of other output )!!...SUMMER 2020 IS FAR FROM OVER!!!!!!

Ignoring what's gone before, this mornings runs are very good for the majority on here (sorry @Mr Frost, you maybe in the minority!?) with plenty of warm/hot/very hot weather on offer from Tuesday onwards. A good chunk of England is again looking at some scorching temps on Saturday but also still very warm a day or two either side. The ECM was a slight outlier at day 7 but within the spread thereafter. August still shaping up very nicely I'd say.

Few captures from yesterday’s chase (31st July 2020) between two counties Nottinghamshire & Lincolnshire. Day started off setting off from Plymouth (Hometown) potentially heading into Kent for developments pushing up from France but my gut told me to hang off with an opportunity in pushing North. Hanged About in Cambridgeshire which looked to be a good half way point to both ends but given convection was starting to fire up towers I made the crucial call and go with what I thought best pushing north into Leicestershire when we was welcomed by storms firing up all around. Ended with an amazing sunset!! May think I’m nuts coming all that way but I love roadtripping and so do my two sons. Going to suffer in work tonight I’m nackered.

Took a step back to look at the broader picture. There's been a very big adjustment to the pattern to our west for the weekend in the past 24 hours. A flatter polar jet profile vacates LP from our west much faster, such that we have a new ridge looking to build across from the west as opposed to a low digging down and causing more northward build of the hot air from western Europe. As a result, the setup favours a two-stage hot spell that doesn't peak as high so soon. Much as the 12z ECM looks to be going with. It's a more stable setup, unless something as complicated as the 12z GFS run occurs. Overall, as someone with high metabolism who struggles a lot during very warm nights, I'm happy with this new version of events. Remains to be seen if it will stick, but these changes to the broad-scale trough-ridge pattern in the N. Atlantic tend not to reverse, at least not fully, when occurring within 5 days range. Unless, of course, it's only GFS doing it .

Thanks @Tamara, another good post that highlights where we are, and where we’ve been from the depths of June and July. Also - your new home looks amazing. Wishing you all the best in this new adventure! ??

Although I miss having storms as they're my favourite type of weather i get excited about, it's still nice having great summer weather and is my second favourite. I went to Pine Gardens yesterday close to Dover and took some lovely pics

Good morning, folks. Right then, the GFS 00Z has turned down the heat a tad... but it still suggests that a stonking three-weeks' weather is on the cards, with a good number of c. 30C days: And a cracking set of GEFS ens too! NH profiles:

And a last one from me for now is the latest from cpc 6-10/8-10 day outlook,EPS and gefs at day ten all pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet in my book with downstream trough in the Atlantic with upstream hp cell towards Scandinavia,this could be a more prolonged warm/hot spell than the one just gone,lets see how it goes in the next few days.

You are not wrong mate! I would rather be in the SE of England this Friday... Latest UKV brings the heat! Toasty 35C! Got to think 38C could be recorded this Friday or Saturday UKV Friday 12:00 and 15:00:

ECM T120: Looks like the heat might last a little longer than UKMO at same time: ECM has the main heat further west so would be with us for longer.

Thursday now in the range of the Arpege. The temperatures will depend highly on how quickly the hot air pushes north out of France though. The Arpege does appear to have slightly higher 850s across the U.K. at this point.

Beyond Saturday still remains a big headache, but the Thursday/Friday/Saturday combination continues to look solid. Based on ECM raw output and usual uplift 2-4C, we could expect the top temperature to be: Thursday 30-32 Friday 34-36 Saturday 34-36 I think an analysis of the GFS bearing in mind how it models temperatures would lead to a similar conclusion. I can now see ukmo maximums on weather.us - I haven't learnt how the raw values equate to reality yet, but it does look as if the UKMO might be slightly hotter still. Really no point assessing temps beyond Saturday as there's still scope for them to be record breaking or just averagely warm. This will not be your usual breakdown from a plume.

12z ECM @168... oh la la

GFS is a massive outlier anyway: Don’t panic!!

Looking very hot next week,I'm not keen on minima above 20 if I were to be honest... Later next week could produce some exceptionally hot maxima and minima.

UKMO continues to pump out hot charts for the end of the week. I suspect it this run would end up as one of those that traps the heat over the UK for an extended period after this point, as the Azores High builds in over the top of the heat, but a long way from resolving that one

Very hot GFSP again. Peak heat next Saturday.

Well, what can I say..most of the GEFS 6z mean is a PEACH if you love summery weather..in..erm..Summer..charts speak for themselves..you don’t need me to comment..oops!

I must admit despite some impressive heat being pushed northwards on some models, there is part of me feeling a little dubious as to how long and intense this spell will be. Day 5 (UKMO/GFS/GEM) Friday still looks hot across the board, but the depth of the trough on the UKMO/GEM has diminished somewhat compared to previous outputs whilst the GFS frankly has remained similar and now there is clearly great interaction between the Atlantic trough and the deep low heights close to Greenland. Day 6 UKMO and GEM develop a cut off circulation to the west/south west of the UK that draws the heat northwards significantly. The GFS has a heat low to the south but the trough has fully lifted out by Saturday. Still hot/very hot on Saturday though. Sunday onward, the high to the north east still dominates but surface conditions will depend on how all the parts play out, the GFS for example sees temperatures fall and a north east wind set in across the country, that could bring a lot of cloud into eastern areas. The GEM keeps the hot conditions going for longer, as would the UKMO. But of course neither of these models appear to have handled conditions well upstream even at quite short range, which casts some doubt on the very hot solutions.

Couple of really hot ones in there, given this is a longer spell than last week, T132: Let’s see what the ECM thinks.

The 12z mean for Saturday does not agree with the operational. Control run is also very hot with no signs of the trough come Saturday. I believe the op is likely to be a considerable cool outlier

Standard progression toward resolving a hot spell: Questions asked over whether disrupting Atlantic lows will help or hinder, GFS producing some of the most hindering outcomes. So far, the 00z ECM has felt the most credible to me based on past experience, with the Atlantic low being of some bother but taking time to clear the heat east and possibly never doing so for the SE - as was the case in that run. Not a bad situation when even the most progressive of outcomes we’re seeing feature plenty of pleasantly warm conditions. The signal for warm easterlies getting involved to some degree or other after the weekend is impressively strong.

Looks like an upgrade for heat on the 12z output so far.

If you like Heat then the Navgem 6z is a Beauty .

A beautiful start with clear skies over almost the entire Region (before the cloud builds later). I've got the patio door open and it's lovely to have some refreshing air coming into the house. Looking like the heat is back with a vengeance from Weds of this coming week. The battle to keep plants in gardens and allotments alive looks set to continue, with GFS suggesting hardly any rain for us over the next ten days. The chart showing quite a NW/SE rainfall split over the UK: Cum precip to 11th Aug:

Friday and Saturday both look like 35C plus days on this morning's ECM (and still a chance of getting to 37/38C on Saturday) Like many ensembles last night, the ECM then clears away the serious heat and gives us low 20s north / high 20s (possibly 30) south for the following days, which is what I would call a more "traditional" heatwave? Still as CS states above, the cut-off trough renders a precise forecast beyond D6 difficult.

No complaints from me with the ECM mean from 96-240

Not boring when you have to get up to do a 9 hour shift the next day.

Models look very pleasant to me. Not the exceptional heat of yesterday's runs but who wants that anyway. Nights should be OK given light winds and the lengthening nights, even with sea temps being at their warmest in the next few weeks.

Ground turning the same shade of 2018 Brown here !

It all depends on how far north the uppers get, how far west the low gets from the Atlantic. The next two days will decide it on how the low coming out of N America phases with the big area of low heights over and South of Greenland, and also how the high builds and orientates itself out east. A Euro high with a S/SE feed could push the temperatures and potentially rival some records. There’s still a fair bit to be ironed out. My main interest would be some possibly spectacular thunderstorms, even a possibility of a dry storm or two in this setup.

It's a bit messy but on this run, yes! The mini trough goes over the top of the hot area rather than under, keeps the hot air in place, then builds another high in over the top which traps the hot air over the UK, and then to cap it all off, has another stab at a plume for the end of next week.

With a bit of luck the SE heat brigade can have their 35c and here in the west we can have the storms. Would leave me a happy man.

Gfs 18z is dusting down the old blowtorch as early as Thursday now and is showing 31c for London on Thursday. As for Friday here is the chart is for 09.00 and you just know its going to be a hot day when charts at 9am are looking like these....

Nothing personal but I sincerely hope those values are too high, one day was bad enough without days on end-yuk

ECM ens Looks good for the heat to build from Thursday onwards (mind you Wednesday will probably be very warm for some as well). Southerlies likely Thurs/Fri/Sat with temperatures clearly on course to hit the mid thirties in the south. The detail after this still looks blurry to say the least, but heights maintained to the east look very likely to day ten. It doesn’t look like the Atlantic will get in, but of course unsettled weather can develop in other ways. For example some form of low drifting up from France is certainly possible (Thunderstorm risk).

So just for fun, here's what the ECM would mean for maximums if one adds the usual 2-3C : Thursday 31-32 Friday 35-36 Saturday 36-37 Sunday 39-40 Monday 37-38 Tuesday 36-37

In other words none of you have any clue what will happen and the models never get anything right. Normality continues. One person says cold other says hot and another is inbetween so one of you can be right. Surely by now you must all realise these models mean nothing not one predicted 37.8c, almost every day in July someone predicted a plus 30 temps for the whole month.

EC 00z is beautiful. The heat is coming,will we see any juicy storms is the question? Looks potentially thundery next weekend..

No storms here yesterday but in the evening got an amazing fiery looking rainbow.