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Yep Arizona Takes some Beating on the Lightning front. I once left my shutter open for 30 seconds down near Tucson and counted over 25 Cg bolts mental. Most have about 2 or 3 branches per strike though like this one on 10th August 2018 south of Phoenix

I've been a bit nervous to make big predictions recently after a slight hiccup on the clusters last week, but, folks, this is looking good for D8 Growing confidence in a settled period starting Saturday and continuing into the following week - warmth gradually returning over time. Hopefully!

Looking at ECM ensembles, confidence in the proposed UK high is extremely high this morning - 48 out of 51 of members have high pressure slap bang over the UK by D8 - that's impressive! Lots of scatter by D12 but still quite a lot of blocks somewhere near the UK.

The GEFS 0z mean shows there is great ensemble support for high pressure to build in over the u k in the not too distant future bringing an increasingly warm settled spell (nationwide)!...there is then a suggestion that it could become more humid with a continental air mass bringing thundery potential!...this is only my interpretation of future events and the reality could be very different but FWIW I’m really optimistic about another summery spell..coming soon..the mean has really improved in a short space of time!?️

I have to give another view on the charts from the synoptic models and the positive post from MWB as the charts I use do not have such a strong signal and indeed have no consistency with one another or(with ec-gfs) from one day to the next. Sunday 5 July Update to day, ec-gfs show quite a change to the charts above,(not shown here) ec especially that previously had no indication of height rises over nw Europe, gfs showed slight. Now both indicate this happening, and it is quite a change even from what they had yesterday. So some caution required. The chart gfs now favours has the +ve heights not in Europe but over the uk and nw. Noaa does not show this marked change and continues with its broad westerly across the atlantic into w’ern Europe, now with that trough more marked. No indication of any height rises over w Europe, with just a very small +ve height just sw of Iceland. So I am not yet convinced that we are about to see a major change in upper air wavelengths, and a more suitable flow for a spell/period of upper and surface ridging. Until all 3 show a good degree of agreement then it is not often that the synoptic pattern currently showing trumps the anomaly charts. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ECM/GFS/GEM day 7 Signs at least that maybe something more settled is on the way and potentially with an uptick in temperatures too.

This ECM 240 chart has caught my eye... ECM only goes to 240 so we can't see beyond that, but that looks like a cut-off low developing. If so, this would act as a trigger for bringing up very warm or even hot air from Spain. It probably won't happen but it's quite interesting nonetheless...

Good morning, peeplies... Isn't it nice to see the GFS 00Z indicating something of an improvement? Though, that's hardly surprising really, given NWPs' penchant for going off at tangents -- of which today's petit stonkeur may well be one of, of course... If only 'envelopes' didn't have two sides! But, I'm sorry to say that, as the GEFS 00Z ensembles show, my pseudo-random choice of charts has (some might say, conveniently) missed-out all the poo... NH profiles: But, as The Almighty once said: Don't panic, things could be worse... and, lo-and-behold, things did get worse!

Last one frome me, the mean is pretty cosha.. Hopefully the morning runs.. Pardon the pun... Will be sticking with this theme. A very good evening to you all..

Not bad...

The 6Z mean also showing a very decent spell of conditions come next Weekend and beyond, so let's see how this plays out as the noaa charts still not really on board.. That mean does look lush though.

ECM op is fine, it looks like at least some decent spells of weather come next weekend. Temperatures probably a little above average at times too.

Bingo! @168

Really good showing in London and blessed with clear skies. Unfortunately I am in the office early tomorrow so couldn’t stick around too long but a good show whilst it lasted, much better than my last one. I get the feeling sunrise may be very epic if people get lucky with weather.

Just a hint over the cloud on the horizon...

Too much cloud and a bit grainy but visible.

NLC`s visible N-NE....20° Latest AIM 03-07-2020.....Bramah

Just managed to get some shots before cloud took over.

Not sure they’re as clear in these but here’s a couple of less obstructed pictures Edit: Seems to be clear enough to see them

Evening all,i hope that you all are safe and well as others have said there looks to be a fine spell on the cards after this week coming judging by the means from ecm and gfs at day ten and if we can get that trough out in the Atlantic to behave kindly in a way that it stays out there then we may get some warmer weather from the south/southwest,dig it further south then we would have another plume setup ecm and gefs ens are nae bad either and i hope it's the only way up with those temps but.... i am still not convinced by the fine weather that the NWP's are showing because the latest cpc 500 mb outlook anomaly's show +ve heights to our N/NW with upper flow W/NW,shift these heights a bit further E/SE then we would be in a better position for finer warmer weather the winner though goes to the jma this evening,what a chart i am on the fence for now until nearer the time.

Took the opportunity of the ‘pause’ in the bad weather to get back out on the hills today. Only 30 minutes of light rain and no wind to speak of was better than I expected! Glas Maol & Creag Leacach from Glen Isla.

NBC`s I`m loving this seasons new Herring bone look

They faded fast and clouds rolled in

Can just about see them here

V nice display at the mo.

NLCs are a GO GO GO to your N to NE

Looking good tonight.. now clouds f koff !

Always worth looking for these things and the Atlantic low following behind may help! Despite very fine weather on yet another op run, unusually for July the models aren't warming things up that quickly. Starting low 20s next weekend, slowly picking up to mid 20s at the start of the following week, I'm guessing perhaps a 27C by Tuesday / Wednesday. Usually with a static high in July you'd be thinking of 30C within a few days.

Settled still @216 but not too hot

https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.3946

Overall, decent overnight runs. I'm liking the ECM as it makes much less of Fridays low when compared to the GFS However, thereafter both models go on to show much better conditions from next weekend with the GFS keeping things warm and settled, for most areas, out into deep FI. MWB's post above regarding the clusters adds weight to the idea the we're looking at some good weather just around the corner. Let's see what the 6z has to say?!

From the Facebook group https://scontent-lhr8-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/106667436_1536626893185694_6848166115537241167_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_oc=AQm2BTh4BNwufC5vUWspmb97DvCGHQzDH-GOnvIVgQpNF5aqDo54Fwqcn0uxpmlyBJg&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-1.xx&oh=e9f801cb3e026c54546629e384dd453b&oe=5F283752 Not recent but a great photo

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 05 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 06 Jul 2020 ISSUED 06:42 UTC Sun 05 Jul 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper trough will swing eastward across northern Britain on Sunday, with a strong mid-level jet rounding its southern base. Cold pool aloft will create an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates, which combined with diurnal heating could yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE. Several bands and clusters of showers will spread southeastwards across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, some producing a few lightning strikes. Greatest instability will be across eastern Scotland where the cold pool will phase favourably with daytime heating, while conversely the strongest shear will be located farther south around the base of the upper trough - generally southern Scotland southwards, and retreating gradually southwards through the day. Consequently the most organised convection will likely be across southern Scotland into northern England (albeit the vertical wind profile largely unidirectional), aided also by the passage of a shortwave during the afternoon hours. Here, squally winds may accompany the strongest cells, on top of the already strong background wind field. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter may be possible locally. Showers will weaken in intensity from mid/late evening onwards as the upper trough exits across the North Sea. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-07-05

We're up in a cottage in Glencoe, it's damp but beautiful (as ever).

As others have said, it indeed was a good display tonight

Seeing some on the horizon here, the same ones you guys are seeing I guess! Always a beautiful thing to see these clouds.

Models showing high pressure back on the scene by this time next week, as a ridge develops and creates a cell over the UK. No heatwave as the ridge is building in relatively cool air, no injection of any warm uppers. Into mid July, possibility we may hold onto fine warmer conditions, much dependent on how strong any heights over the UK become and where they end up.

Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague

Amazing display currently! Got my Brinno timelapse camera on record, not too sure how well they will show up on there but I will find out later...

Lovely GFS 12Z... Settles down nicely and gets really warm ... Lovely,but a little too far out to be trusted.

The GFS ensembles seem to agree with a more settled spell from around the 10th...just look at those rainfall spikes over that 5 or 6 day period.. Its drier than a camels backside on a desert run. Exeter also highlighting more settled towards the West come next weekend then a N/S split with more settled the more favourable outcome but with low confidence. Be interesting to see the EC weeklies on Monday..

Those charts still showing the ridge to the W/NW John with the upper flow more W/NW! Also heights looking strong in the pole region with very decent conditions across the Eastern Seaboard.. Have I got the right idea there?

clearer skies tonight and tomorrow by the look of it... fingers crossed!

The high is starting to budge in on the 12z ECM @144

Showers are very fast moving and quite potent now... started off with decent spells of sunshine but frequent showers now back filling from nowhere so if your unlucky like yours truly is right now you get put under a torrential streamer for 20-30 mins. Not a day were you could plan anything outdoors with any reasonable confidence of it staying dry. All the way through 'lockdown' cracking flags with warm sunshine...now we're out of lockdown...rain bouncing off the aforementioned flags.

On a brighter note the 00z runs look reasonably promising...

Huge differences between GFS and other models at such short range as early as Wednesday EC GFS No other model has that deep low NW of Ireland on Wednesday

CFS going in strong already. This is an average over many runs Looks to me to be going for a December SSW. Means little on it's own at the moment obviously, but its noteworthy that perhaps 70% of its entire ensemble suite for that period is going for strong Arctic blocking. Compare this to last year when we were seeing dark blues forecast over Greenland, even this early on. It bodes well we're seeing what we are seeing now IMO.

Here is a broader view of tonight's ECM op run.. And regarding the mean we end up at around 1020mb by day 10 and out to day 14 we are on average at around 1018mb for the Midlands South. And around 1016mb further North.. Enjoy your evenings.

At long last summer has arrived in these parts. A Sunday lunch cheeky pint on the terrace. C