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Crikey! With all this morning's talk of 'stinkers', 'horrors' and 'shockers', I think I'll wait to see what @Tamara has to say... Some folks really do need a sense of perspective, at times!

Where is everyone.. ECM throwing out a nice run.. 240hrs....what next? Not everyone may think these are anything special charts, but compared to the last few days I feel its a marked improvement.

Now THAT is what you call a perturbation... Crikey

GEM 12z is great, follows the others earlier, but remains settled to the end and builds east a bit too:

ECM mean T168, tempting, and T240, live with that! This will be my last post for a while. It has been great that during the lockdown that this was the only one of my hobbies i could still do, but I must now divert my, now limited energies, however difficult, to rebreathe other areas of my life. My best wishes to all on here, some of whom might feel similarly. Will be back when summer is back! Best regards Mike

Ecm at 168hrs much better than the morning run, not bad at all.. I think @Mike Poole as been watching to much Star Trek..

ICON first out on the 12s, and in a weeks time, things settling down nicely with a UK high Let’s see what the other models throw out on a similar timescale this afternoon...

ECM mean does show an improvement by late next Weekend, but it's still a little to far out to have much faith currently.. The NOAA charts are still illustrating Heights more to the West with the flow more W/NWTLY.. so conditions being average at best and that's not to sound negative cause I hate sounding like that. Ohh and we have some gr8 members on here... Aka Tams and John Holmes who have helped me in explaining certain things weather related... Thanks guys and gals.. Much appreciated as always..

Well, the GFS 00Z doesn't look too bad, to me; it even looks rather good, post Day 10: And neither do the GEFS 00Z ensembles resemble anything from a horror movie:? NH profiles: So nowt to disastrous there, either.

Mike’s ECM T48: It’s quiet, too quiet! Weather is improving, but we don’t know whether the world still exists, government all but admitted that opening up the economy was a risk, are we still here?

Hey Matt, don’t worry about sounding negative, I know for a fact you are looking for positives and as I keep saying, there are positives further ahead in terms of the Azores ridge / high ( as shown on the ECM / GEFS)..now, how successful it turns out to be is a whole different matter but I would rather look at the positives rather than the negatives!!!..well done mate!

Looking at the overnight models, I still see improvement longer term (Azores ridging etc..)..as I have in previous days!..July could easily produce some lovely weather..don’t give up..it’s only the 4th of July!

Here is a broader view of tonight's ECM op run.. And regarding the mean we end up at around 1020mb by day 10 and out to day 14 we are on average at around 1018mb for the Midlands South. And around 1016mb further North.. Enjoy your evenings.

Thanks for your contributions on here, Mike! If the ECM mean is anything to go by, you'll be back next weekend! Cracking UK high D7/D8, and the jet looks like it has lifted far north by D9/D10. A good chance to break out of the Atlantic dominance of last week and the one coming.

I wouldn’t want to look too far ahead at the moment with this system that has rapidly developed in the Atlantic. Heading out towards the mid Atlantic by midweek, models notoriously don’t handle these well.

Mike’s ECM T24: So there’s a major depression coming in, for summer, anyway. Fortunately, in my town hairdressers have been taking due precautions, some of the draped plastic and visors would not be out of place in an apocalypse drama (or maybe Dexter, if anyone has watched that).

Unpopular opinion... I don't mind the current weather! The warmer weather will come back eventually so i'm enjoying the current setup. And it's still reaching 20-21°C everyday here so it's not exactly freezing cold.

Ok..so, I’m seeing better signs from the GEFS 6z mean.,is anyone else seeing better signs as time goes on..? hey, I’m showing charts to prove my point!!!!!!

Knew this thread would be fun today unlike the weather!

I can understand where your coming from mate.. I had high hopes after that gr8 May which was obviously a false sense of security.. That's a concern of mine just lately to keep seeing the best conditions reserved at day 10+,it almost feels like chasing the illusive Winter cold snap right now. I don't think the sun as even made an appearance here for 8 days now.. Its one extreme to the other and it drives me mad at times. The EC 46 and the current NOAA charts don't paint a gr8 picture currently, that could change soon, well Im hoping it does... Forever the optimist can be tiring at times..

re this . Summer in these parts is unquestionably turning poor, only 8days reached 21C so far and a figure we might only add 1 or 2 days at best to in the next 8-10days. Best you relocate to this area, had double that number so far and 3 over 30 C!

Yes there is certainly some truth in some of this. Paraphrasing, I have written what (to me) amounts to be a book on the perspective of this since returning to posting for the summer. Its always easier to discuss and explain these things when the weather preference is reflected by the macro scale weather pattern translating the desired observed surface conditions on the ground. Then the perception is that these drivers "work". and the people who are hardest to please are willing to appreciate the value of them The rather large snag in all this, is that these diagnostic wind-flow aids are not intended to be magic bullets to fitting to meet the needs of idealistic weather preferences - they are there to try to help find the correct solution (which may or may not include the preference solution). I find that the use of these highly valuable aids to the atmospheric circulation and wind-flow inertia, providing clues as to how the jet stream may be influenced by them upstream and downstream, to be wholly incompatible to the hopes and expectations of them from some quarters (not all by any means). It is a smaller scale version at this time of year of the much larger disconnect that exists in winter and creates the total circus when the "science" only matters and "works" if it makes it snow... Problems also arise when the diagnostic credibility becomes reliant on numerical model forecasts using that diagnostic data. In the same principle as NWP interpretations of the atmosphere, these AAM forecasts are estimating calculations of tropical and extra tropical phenomena which are prone to forecasting revision when such numerical interpretation of them changes. The actual diagnostic (not numerical forecasting) modelling which includes the wind-flow phase plots (GWO) and angular momentum and wind-flow torque plots help decide if the numerical models are on the right track or whether change in their estimations is possible. These, plus other various proxies are aids to this. It is necessary to know the consolidated starting position of the atmosphere wind-flows as accurately as possible to account for how numerical modelling biases may extrapolate forecasts ahead and produce results that risk deviating outwards in time I cannot add anything further to recent summaries which have stated the probabilities of what might go right and what might go wrong - in terms of desired weather hopes. It was possible to have an overview ahead of time of what the default pattern might be heading into the start of summer (a predominant emerging Atlantic ridge) and this has duly played out so far this summer. The hardest part has been trying to identify when a-typical aspects to this may arise - such as the heatwave ridge of last week. It was also possible to identify that in good time However the task is becoming ever harder now we hit high summer wavelengths.. Some of the modelling, including the EC weekly modelling is extrapolating the African/Indian Ocean low frequency tropical >extra tropical signal outwards in time ,(that configures to the Atlantic ridge and downstream trough) and suggested the overriding of other signals (as endlessly described and discussed) that might provide dissonance to that default signal. Caution is still required with this - evidence becomes required to back these numerical extrapolations up - and at this time it is not wholly convincing (at least yet) It seems wise not to make any further attempt as means to avoid endless repetition of the same thing (and save personal time) Again somewhat rhetorically speaking , the best thing to do is simply let some days of NWP watching go by, let associated reactions to to it play out, and revise prospects then. Continuity, irrespective of weather preference and any non allegiance Mother Nature adheres to them, is always possible,. In truth that is all that matters to me personally. Continuity provides the space for future clarification and the space to find answers as part of that process. It compensates for any frustration of the weather itself. In my humble opinion of course. All those things are possible. But in summary - if anyone expects guarantees and magic bullets, at any time of the year, then there will inevitably be disappointment (and disillusionment) at some time or other. More often than not as well.

One perturbation, 12 days away, what could possibly go wrong? I'm still enjoying 'average' anyway...

12z GEM and GFS look pretty similar at day 8 on how that high is positioned and it looks pretty good on both of those runs -

Mike’s ECM T0 Since the start of lockdown I’ve often commented on the ECM 12z run frame by frame. Which I didn’t usually do. I’m bored. There has been nothing better to do. But I intend to draw a line under this on Super Saturday, and will comment on the models only generally, not frame by frame as I try to re-engage with the wonderful people around. So, for one last time, all 10 frames, the 12z ECM as I really see it...T0: I really cannot see why they publish this one, just look out of the window, the worlds gone mad!

Today's CFSv2 update:

GFS 12Z very similar to UKMO at 144 this evening.. Both models looking more positive now wrt Azores ridging into the UK..

So, increasing signal now for settled weather next weekend, not sure how long it will last, but GFS following ICON, and an extrapolated UKMO, at T180:

Nice post from Buzz..and guess what..I found summer on the GEFS 6z!!!!

The only good thing about this weather is hopefully it will put some folk off going to the pubs.

It's all down to personal preference - to some a 'stinker' is when there isn't wall to wall sunshine and temperatures in the upper 20's Celcius, while broken cloud, sunny intervals and temperatures in the high teens or low 20's just isn't good enough for some. Personally speaking I'm more than happy with the latter but opinions will naturally differ. I sometimes wonder if the 'profile' section on the left side should have an option for 'Preferred Weather' - it would then be easier to judge the accuracy of any forecast statements because that would depend on the poster's preference.

Just to add to the autumnal feeling this evenings sunset to the NW and SE. What was it I said about record breaking growth. Seems July wants to put this on hold. Currently broken cloud and 8c Still patches of snow on Ben Wyvis at relatively low levels and they would have been refrozen again at night in the last couple of days.

Has a comet finally this year survived its approach and perihelion of the Sun? Comet NEOWISE

Took the opportunity of the ‘pause’ in the bad weather to get back out on the hills today. Only 30 minutes of light rain and no wind to speak of was better than I expected! Glas Maol & Creag Leacach from Glen Isla.

We're up in a cottage in Glencoe, it's damp but beautiful (as ever).

Well I would post the mighty Navgem tonight but meteociel are not sure what to do . Many runs in one . ??

I thought I'd wait awhile, so I could see what others are saying, before I posted the GFS 12Z ens... Heaps of scatter past around Day 9 -- and there's one 20C+ run in it? But the op looks like something you might tread in, on New Year's Day! NH profiles: The Professionals (no, not Bodie & Doyle!) must be pulling their hair out, when trying to make sense of some of the recent output!

I’ve been down the pub! its easily done, the T72 is the default. OK, one last chart from me and I can have a break, The real ECM T240; Pick the bones out of that.

You OK Mike you've just posted the day 3 ECM chart for day 10... Your not still in the pub are you mate.. Edit... What a legend you are @Mike Poole

Something that went under the radar, wettest June 24 hrs on record fell last Saturday - Sunday, Honister over 210mm of rain.

This is the extended surface and 500 mb flow from the UK Met model. To me not really showing what is suggested above. Just my take on this so feel free to shoot me down.

No it is not the jet just another contour line, this one the 564 DM line. Sometimes taken as the boundary of much warmer air below 128,000 ft (500 mb). I'll have a look at the predicted jet stream on GFS, who knows it may be in that region. Back shortly. This is the predicted 00z GFS run with the jetstream (around 30,000 ft), not far from the 564 line in places. Valid next Sunday 12 July, about mid way between the NOAA 6-10 day 500 mb outlook.

a comparison for amount of mass around the pole with this time last season 2019

Plus you get away from the rat race...I should think quality of life isn't bad and certainly more chance of snow than down here!

It’s quite telling when this threads the busiest thread on the forum at the moment.

I'd be curious to spend a year there. Lots more to Shetland than just the weather.

So early in the season? We are over a month in and I can count on one hand the number of dry, warm sunny days we have had. No day will meet that criteria up to at least mid month too. The "good" spell early next week will be 4 degrees below average. So in 45 days of summer we will have had 5 dry, warm and sunny days. Pathetic. We are sleepwalking through summer saying it's still early wait a couple of weeks and before we know it, it will be September. Also as for April and May, that was payback for a disgraceful winter. So up to the start of summer we were even in terms of fortune for the year. After this summer disgrace we are owed something big again.

That’s so close to an interesting chart. A few hundred miles further west and it could be humid, thundery and, most importantly - sunny! Of course we all know the atmosphere will conspire to deliver the most boring outcome possible.

5 years ago right now, we were about to see a belter erupt over Bournemouth and carve a NNE path of noise and discography! 5 years later, we are stuck in a very boring pattern of stratiform Atlantic mush!

Just catching up..well, there are some good signs, especially longer term..here’s a T+240 snapshot from various output and beyond that, the Gfs 12z looks very pleasant..better from the ECM to!!!