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Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got. It’s great to see Scotland get some amazing storms recently.

Wow what a storm here in Ardrossan on the West coast of Scotland. Managed to capture a couple of great shots out to sea.

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequency tropical forcing rooted in the Indian Ocean However, as is always the case, it is not NWP that is driving the pattern but a raft of highly uncertain signals that are not cut and dried by any means in the coming weeks and why extrapolating same trends too far out in time is likely to lead to error. There are some similarities with where we are now to 2016 in terms of tropical feedbacks and a somewhat fitful extra tropical disconnect to these, which looks likely to keep waxing and waning related to a reprise of very similar mercurial QBO behaviour, even if based on different triggers. As a consequence, unexpected results could well keep manifesting in the extra tropics. The essence of this is that amplification of the Pacific will take charge of proceedings once more in the opening part of July, but will still be prone to greater interruptions than might be expected from a regime like this - based on further off equator forcing diffusing the default low frequency Indian Ocean tropical signal that is supressing angular momentum and leading to a downstream retracted Azores ridge.. On this basis, lifting out of low pressure once more and further warm spells are quite feasible as July moves further forward. With all that is mind, and the talk of off equator forcing, this is something to watch A significant high frequency eastward propagating CCKW related MJO event programmed by this model, and gaining consensus with ECM during July which would trigger sub tropical ridge wave-breaking and provide a push to lift out the UK/Scandinavian trough of the first week or so of July. NWP in general is starting to programme the beginnings of this ridge encroachment in the extended period as well stated by Matt and others. These high frequency tropical waves are likely fast moving through the tropics until they start imprinting on the low frequency standing wave across Africa and the Indian Ocean, by this time acting "constructively" to increase trade winds once more. Constructive in terms of re-enforcing the low frequency standing wave , but clearly less constructive in terms of what it does to our downstream pattern. So it is possible therefore that a similar progression of weather as seen in recent weeks may occur through July and heading towards August - with the upcoming cooler changeable spell leading to another potentially very warm spell before, perhaps, breaking down once more from the west later one - as the low frequency signal returns to control the downstream pattern. A mixed outlook, but certainly not a completely bad one by any means with plenty of interest for more excellent summer weather in between cooler more changeable conditions

While we await for it all to go pop, a few more photos taken yesterday from folks in North Devon. I love the first one taken by Leasa Allen. Image 1 - Leasa Allen, Torrington, North Devon Image 2 and 3 - Bob Cowlard, nr Ashford, North Devon Image 3 - Kev Lyford, Combe Martin, North Devon

Nice view of Derby anvil from mam tor

This is the "storms and convective discussion" thread. A cumulus field very much fits this definition.

Here’s a few more images from down the coast near Ardrossan. Pictures were taken between 12am-1am. I can hear thunder again to my south and west

Just snapped these, this is awesome!!

I like pictures of all the different clouds forming

Finally got home 4am. Couple of shots from last night. Over 50 miles away. followed by a cracking red sunrise

Just got in from a great chase between Hastings - Dungeness. Started along Hastings seafront watching distant cg's out to sea and headed east as new cells fired on the eastern side. Some wonderfully vivid blue bolts as I drove eastwards before stopping at Dungeness where I heard what I believe was hail roar for the first time! As the cell hit hail 1-1.5cm bounced around me with close cg's and booming thunder. Some awesome skies around this morning, the colours and textures were incredible.

Looking at the ECM clusters on D11 (7th July) and D14 (10th July), the glass is getting fuller by the run. 7th July (last two ensemble sets) 10th July The clusters with good ridge anomalies over most of the UK throughout the period include around 70% of the ensemble runs (clusters 1+3 from last night, clusters 1+2 this morning) - 70% tends to be a good benchmark for calling something a predominant trend. This suggests good, warm weather is a strong possibility on these days for southern/eastern areas, and a fair possibility for north/western areas. Of course, any 4 day period of settled weather in July could lead to a heatwave, so finding a less congested beach might become a problem once more.

I put my alarm on for 3 having seen what was leaving France die out but thought it may be worth checking back. Woke and looked at the radar and was surprised to see some activity 20km off the coast so I shot out of bed and crossed the road to the seafront. Was a decent hour or so under what was about 3 rumbles per minute in Hastings. Some very heavy rain at times. Mostly C-C but a few C-G too. Some pretty close I felt and made me jump! Few gifs. Got about an hour of footage from phone and DSLR. Will look back later maybe. Couple of hours kip before 9am client! 4 photos post-storm on my Twitter @meridianbizhub

hears 1000 cameras fall to the floor

Comisserations to those who have missed storms in the last few days! We were lucky to chase down and get the timings right to watch yesterdays line of elevated thunderstorms approaching Swansea, with some beautiful strikes underneath undulating cloud bases. I understand elevated storms essentially involve CAPE higher up in the atmospheric profiles, but in terms of triggering mechanisms are they any different to surface based? Such an interesting couple of weeks, meteorologically!

For the Moderate Risk area this Image should make you smile away, a lovely area for solar heating and no trouble with cloudy skies putting a dampener on anything. The Stage is Set as they say

Our climate has shifted somewhat in the last 10-20 years and if you want to see Supercells in this country you have to go to the North West, Midlands And North East England. The days of the best storms in the South and South East are long past us now with a much drier arid climate down here where you can go 2-3 weeks without any rainfall at all and capping seems to be a much bigger problem these days

Could see the anvil from the storm over the Irish Sea last evening, some large altocumulus castellanus that way.

Well, all those saying there could be a return to very summery conditions between early / mid July will be cheered by the GEFS 6z mean and quite a few of its members!

Bury St Edmonds storm from 50 miles away what a beast

When your phone app says thunderstorms:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2020 Issued 2020-06-26 07:19:00 Valid: 26/06/2020 0600 - 27/06/2020 0600 Forecast Details Upper trough axis to the W and SW of Britain Friday morning will become increasingly negatively-tilted (NW-SE aligned) and sharpen as it shifts E into western Britain by late evening. Ahead of the trough, a warm/moist plume characterised by high wet bulb potential temperatures (theta-w) of 16-18C will continue to advect north across much of Britain, the plume eventually pushed away eastwards by the approaching upper trough by early Saturday. The high theta-w plume has destablised overnight in places with elevated thunderstorms breaking out and still ongoing this morning, particularly across Ireland and far west of mainland UK – due to strips of positive vorticity /drier air overrunning western side of plume, while a shortwave trough has brought an area of t-storms across the far SE which will clear by breakfast time. A very warm and moist surface airmass will reside across much of Britain, with dew points reaching 16-20C. Surface heating of this humid airmass into the high 20s or low 30s (SE England) by this afternoon capped beneath an EML (elevated mixed layer) will produce a ‘loaded gun’ pool of strong potential instability with CAPE values forecast to reach 1000-1900 j/kg this afternoon across inland Britain. Long strip/trough of positive vorticity /dry air aloft (noted on WV imagery) will continue to move E/NE across mainland UK, lift and overrunning of dry air in the mid-levels from this feature along with surface breeze convergence will likely destabilise and release the large reservoir of CAPE and support the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of the Midlands, NE Wales, northern England and into southern Scotland. Further south airmass likely to remain on the whole capped by the EML, but isolated t-storms can’t be ruled out. Given the large CAPE values forecast across much of Britain, particularly across central, northern and eastern England, isolated large hail (3-5cm diameter) is possible with stronger storms, along with frequent C-G lightning and torrential downpours with rainfall rates of 30-50mm per hour leading to localised flooding. Therefore, have issued a severe storm area covering NE Wales, Midlands and N England. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are likely to develop, mostly elevated, across the north of Ireland/N. Ireland, southern and western Scotland, hail (isolated 2-3cm), frequent C-G lightning and torrential rain leading to flash-flooding. Isolated elevated thunderstorms breaking out across N France/English Channel/Channel Islands, as another trough/strip of positive vorticity swings in from the SW, could clip SE England this evening. This evening/tonight – surface low moving in across S Ireland under base of upper trough moving in the SW/W will pull an occluded frontal zone across SW Britain, bringing showers, which could be locally heavy enough to produce isolated lightning. Issued by: Nick Finnis Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Yep Cones Gone 3 quick successive visible lightning strikes and peels of thunder Thank the Lord on this day 26th June 2020

The MetOffice were right to mention flooding.. my garden is flooded with my salty tears

Just been up a hill inland East Lothian to the east of this lot. Most exciting

What about Turkey Towers gobble gobble

Could also be an initiation zone near the Chilterns NW Of London looking at the sat - Dunno what that smudge of cloud is following the coastline of Southern Britain as well, very strange. Btw some were commenting on that spiral of storms off the South Coast last night near Brighton, smartie on Ukww has done a nice post on its formation noting it was an MCV (Mescoscale Convective Vortex) which initiated within the MCS that came out of France last night - Good reading

No Disrespect to you in this post but am guessing you are quite young compared to old f arts like me but if you go back beyond the year 2000 the South and SE were the pinnacle for storms that lasted 6 hours in plume events, surface based storms initiating just inland from the south coast, golfball sized hail destroying whole vineyards in Suffolk, Greenhouses in Essex etc etc. Believe me the climatic shift has occured within the Uk and indeed the tilt on MCS events that now favour Benelux moreso than our part of the world. And if we want to take it further the kinematic profiles of events and overlap of ingrediants come together better further north now that they do in the south. Have been studying these things for well over 40 years and things has changed

I know it’s not severe, but got a beautiful sunset tonight

Is it me you’re looking for?

Great shot here from a photographer in North Devon a few hours ago of lightning over Instow.

Just got home. Was a very refreshing drive if nothing else. Activity was there for about 15 minutes with some big distant orange bolts but then it abruptly ceased. Took a weird photo of my mate looking like a renaissance oil painting though.

OK here we go before i start posting my pics,my partner just said to me that the storm we had here earlier whilst i was chasing that the hail was the size of a two pound coin and she didn't get any pics anyway on to my pics:- this first pic is of a storm that where just starting to get going to my south,i was parked at Marr west of Doncaster the storms where moving pretty quick so we(me and my daughter) got on the A1 north to get ahead of them,this pic was a developing Cb to the NE courtesy of my daughter whilst we was traveling now things where getting interesting now that we parked in Driffield facing south,the first pic is of a Meso just to the east of a storm that has just started,there was some slight rotation on it,the second pic was at the back end of the storm and we could see more Cb's/inflow feeding the storm,we had to move further north so we headed NW towards Malton still tracking this storm and parked up on a nice tranquil country lane just SE of Malton,i was watching this closely as there was still rotation on this storm,the Cb's was rotating anti-clockwise it was unreal and finally on the second pic there is a white rope(you have to zoom in) further up the road my daughter said pull over and i said why!,she said look at that tower and i thought that she was on about a Cb shooting up but it was a building,i had different towers in mind,there was another storm developing between York and Pocklington and boy this was photogenic,the base on this thing was rotating like a washing machine and i thought that it was going to give me another funnel but it didn't sadly,the last pic was at it's most spectacular and i have a vid on this and will post it when i get round to it some random pics while we where heading back home sunbeam we parked up near Market Weighton for a snack at McDonald's and here we saw some lovely Mammartus clouds to our north and i spotted a pileus cloud to my east then spread out 2 minutes later finally a sunset from Goole bridge on the move. the only Cg's we saw today(two of them) was when we parked up in a little village lane viewing a storm towards Bridlington but i will go through the video footage when i can now i am going to trawl through this thread from early this afternoon same again tomorrow? take care cheers.

Well ain’t this right!

This is the same cell that has pushed through central/western parts of East Anglia, just clipped Peterborough and should be moving into Eastern Lincolnshire now.

Hey Everyone Here's a short clip of the tempest that hit us here in Jersey yesterday evening at around 7:30pm, following a temperature of 32.7c recorded at Maison St Louis Observatory during the afternoon. Not quite a record breaker for us but close nonetheless. The temperature gauge in the car fell from around the 30c mark to 20c in a matter of minutes, soon after being hit by the deluge. And I have to say, it was intense to say the least 10000000_687373108479442_6555036978920036745_n.mp4

How likely is CFS likely to be correct at that distance, one would not need even the fingers on one hand for the % figure!

Its never a good idea to say for sure that things are going to massively improve to far down the line for obvious reasons. But the general consensus is for conditions to improve by next weekend, pretty much a rinse and repeat pattern as Tamara highlights so well above. The Long range 46 last night and this mornings eps and clusters are also showing this rather well too. Not set in stone but promising all the same. Edit... Also pointed out by Singularity above..

Thank you Tamara for that most informative update. The week 3-4 projections from both ECMWF and CFSv2 are reflecting this potential lift-out of the mean trough very nicely. As you say, connections to the strong CCKW, which interestingly CFSv2 is developing into a full-blown MJO event. In the meantime, I'm just hoping we can score at least a couple of drier, warmer days next week. With AAM slowly rising toward neutral, this still seems plausible to me.

Nice bolt from earlier!

Totally agree with your comments Paul. Over the last few Decades, Plumes seem to have been associated with a Steering Flow, from SSW > NNE. Whereas, back in the 60's/70's, the Steering Flow of these Thundery breakdowns seemed to be more S > N. With this in mind, I started to "employ" what I call the Cherbourg Peninsula test. I will Post up an image of the Cherbourg Peninsula/South Coast, to illustrate my point. If electrical activity initiates East of the Peninsula, the areas primarily affected will be East Sussex/East Kent, with a Steering Flow from SSW > NNE . This is basically what happened again, around Dawn this Morning. The infamous "Kent Clipper", more or less bared its teeth again, and the Capital remained unaffected. This "Cherbourg Peninsula Test" has worked so many times, over the last few Years. Regards, Tom.

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 Jun 2020 ISSUED 06:36 UTC Fri 26 Jun 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan Longwave trough will become increasingly negatively-tilted as it continues to approach Britain and Ireland on Friday from the southwest. A plume of high Theta-E will continue to nudge gradually northwards and eastwards across Britain through the day, providing the focus for several waves of potential thunderstorm activity as shortwaves lift northwards in the south/southeasterly flow aloft on the forward side of the upper trough. At 06z Friday, scattered clusters of elevated showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing almost anywhere in a NW-SE line from the Hebrides / W Scotland through the Irish Sea into Wales / Midlands / SE England - however, there will likely be many areas not experiencing thunderstorms at this time. This line (active or inactive) will continue to lift northeastwards through the day, and so the areas at risk of semi-random outbreaks of elevated shower/thunderstorm activity will also shift northeast accordingly, broadly clearing to the North Sea by early afternoon, but pivoting such that the instability plume lingers across central and southern Scotland. In its wake, substantial capping will likely persist across much of southern Britain, generally restricting any surface-based convection from developing - not least due to slightly reduced surface temperatures following morning mid-level cloud. Forecast profiles suggest temperatures of at least 34C would be required to break the cap in SE England, which seems unlikely. Further north, surface troughing is expected to develop, perhaps even a heat low, with low-level confluence and convergence combining with some orographic forcing to bring a greater risk of surface-based thunderstorms developing. A wind shift line, associated with the surface trough axis, may also lift northeast across England during the day, which may also provide the focus for initiation. The area at greatest risk of surface-based development is considered far NE Wales through north Midlands into northern and eastern England. Here, the thermodynamic and kinematic environment would be supportive for organised and potentially severe thunderstorm activity, and while winds will be fairly unidirectional through the cloud-bearing layer, shear may be adequate for splitting supercells - especially during the evening hours over NW / N England. Given the magnitude of CAPE (1,000-2,000 J/kg) and very steep mid-level lapse rates, lightning could be very frequent with large to very large hail (3-5cm in diameter, and perhaps very locally larger) possible from the most organised cells. A tentative MDT has been introduced where showers/thunderstorms may be more numerous. A SVR has been introduced primarily for the threat of damaging hail. There is a level of uncertainty as to how widespread thunderstorms may become during the afternoon and evening hours, primarily due to the presence of the cap, especially towards the south. Overall the best environment - weaker cap and stronger shear overlapping with substantial CAPE - will be over northern England and perhaps into southern Scotland. A PV filament arriving from the southwest during the evening hours may also encourage upscale growth, especially across northern and eastern England with thunderstorms potentially becoming more numerous with time (primarily elevated), these then likely to swing into eastern Scotland during the early hours of Saturday. Other elevated thunderstorms could develop along the same line farther south across East Anglia and perhaps parts of SE England, with others advecting from France also - and so an uptick in activity is possible over these areas during the late evening and night hours, but confidence is not particularly high. Additional scattered thunderstorms are also likely across parts of Scotland and northern portions of Ireland, with marginally-severe hail (generally up to 2cm in diameter) possible and shower training bringing the risk of localised flooding. A low-end MDT has been introduced where there is reasonable multi-model agreement on the position of thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. Showery outbreaks of rain within the base of the upper trough will swing across southern Ireland on Friday afternoon, into Wales and SW England overnight. A few isolated lightning strikes may be possible, but the risk in any one location is considered too low to warrant a SLGT - except perhaps towards the Channel Islands late in the night.

OOoo Red sky in the morning

Out for a drive near Whaley Bridge and can see the anvil of the storm near Nottingham

Alfreton storm to the east of Derbyshire Dales.

Rather see pics of mundane looking clouds than off-topic nonsense! Hottest day of the week here 30.2°C but it doesn’t look cap is going to be overcome in London, shame as it is oppressive and humid. Feels ripe. London will probably sow seeds for those further north again seen this happening much more frequently in recent years.

Bit jel of those to my NW

A couple more from this morning

Well what a pleasant surprise that turned out to be! I was awoken at around 04:30 by the steady torrential rain pounding against the conservatory roof outside my bedroom window; I was easily awoken, as it was a rather shallow sleep anyway because of the soupy heat. Before the first c-c bolt tore it's way across the sky, I just assumed it was the blob of moderate-heavy rainfall that was in the channel. I was certainly happy to be proved wrong! After about 20 seconds of looking out of the window blurry eyes, a huge pink C-C bolt struck overhead. The resulting thunder came in strong, rolling booms. It was my favourite kind of thunder, elevated! The sky was a rather unusual pink-yellow hue as the heaviest of the rain fell. The closest strike happened at approximately 04:55, when a C-C bolt was so close and bright you could see the individual small sparks on it! After this point the rain slowly began to ease, as the core of the storm drifted slowly to the ENE. As the rain came to a stop completely, I was treated to the unobscured view of a mixture of C-C and CG bolts, most of them a pink/white hue. Thrown in amongst these strikes was the occasional breathtaking anvil-crawler. The storm slowly rumbled away, closing the curtains on a surprisingly... hot 2-day hot spell, in the best way possible! Fingers crossed for more this convective season, and to everyone who has painfully missed out so far: No need to worry! Your time will come eventually! Have a good day everyone