Leaderboard

Guaranteed? The 4th June is 9 days away.. Blimey I dont post in here that often but if I declared in winter that it would turn colder and snow in 9 days time I would be ripped to pieces and quite right to. C.S

EC keeps the warmth for another 10 days this morning. Jury out longer term,in the meantime lots of warm settled weather for the UK.. The best April May combo ever for warm dry weather..

You seem to be obsessed with a potential breakdown, which is still in FI. Those charts that you've posted do look cooler, but still dry for most- no end in sight to the dry weather from what I can see.

12z ICON isn't showing any signs of any unsettled weather and looks settled all the way through.

The ecm is an improvement from this morning,look at this day 6 chart(smacks lips)

Just for balance: 2nd June 1975 And 4 days later:

Balance is all well and good, but when you're focused solely on FI, is that balance at all? People are quite right to be focusing on warm, settled conditions as that is what is being shown in the reliable time frame.

Yes Zak... Looks a good prognosis... I will take that young man.

As i said last night 18z went off one as the 00z has bactracked and is absolutely fantastic!and if that was not enough ecm is pretty darn good this morning as well!!better than last nights 12z!!long may this continue?

And once again the gfs backs down from any meaningfull rainfall on the 12z!!dry spell continues into far fi land!!!ukmo 12z looks good as well!!

Not true... I think there should be more balance in here, and maybe I’m being hypocritical. Unfavourable output doesn’t seem to be posted in here, it does look to turn cooler around 2nd, detail still uncertain with precip I think there will be showers, models don’t tend to pick up well on.

Oh! @Mr Frost. Would you looks at that! It's a plume, methinks! But, just in case the 'no plumes' prediction wasn't yours, David (and to avoid me getting an eggy face) should you know whose it was, please kindly forward them my sanctimonious, self-satisfied grin!

The models have certainly pulled back from the unsettled and cool charts that were showing yesterday (albeit in FI).

@Daniel* does have a point though and it does look to cool off next week and a bit more unsettled too... gefs ens and gefs mean at day ten from that mean it looks like the hp cell will migrate west to allow a cooler feed from a northerly quadrant but whether this materializes is anyone's guess,meanwhile we have plenty of fine warm dry weather to enjoy this week and we will worry about any breakdown nearer the time

Based on current output, I have to agree - a ridge stuck in the Atlantic will eventually bring cooler weather with it. But based on what's happened between FI and the "reliable" time frame in the past two months, I would give an equal chance of the predicted Atlantic ridge being at least 500 miles further east by T0!

GEM looking good out to 168. If anything, it looks warmer with more of a southerly component.

Aye, DJ...Every year. End of May. Just like clockwork!

And bang!!! the dirt is gone... 192 i like this run a lot.

Could we be seeing some flexing from the High out West, either way it's still lookin pretty good.

12z ECM @144 Looks like it has shunted that low more SW.

The same is being done with warm output, talk of hot weather well into first half of June? No one can say that. You read this thread, and you scratch your head sometimes. Whether it’s FI or not all output should be able to be discussed, particularly when there is some support for it. No one is saying the Atlantic is going to come crashing through, that doesn’t appear to be on the table. But as we enter June we do appear to be in a more perilous position with cooler and showery weather close to our shores...

A breakdown that is still in FL. No end in sight for the dry weather we are having.

I just don’t think he’s a fan of warm, settled weather, as he usually posts charts which show the opposite.

UKMO looks warm, dry,and settled out to 144... 144 looks the point were things become less certain with the Scandy high sat to the NE and troughs becoming more noticeable across Europe and in the Atlantic. All in all though another week of warm settled weather looks favourite..

Well what can I say, the GEFS 6z mean looks preety good for the next 180 hours at least!.,and further ahead may be nice to...now I’m not denying there are likely to be some cooler more changeable spells beyond the next week or so but to be honest, for late spring this is a great week for many and it whets the appetite for the long summer ahead!

Morning all. Looks like models build up the heat by Friday, especially the west and north of the British Isles with some warm uppers showing up. Hot spot , Lancashire coast ! Meanwhile on the other side of the high cell , cool conditions remain in the Eastern Alps and yes snowfall last night down to 1800m. Enjoy your sunshine and warmth this week in blighty. C

Perhaps you should read the met office contingency planners forecast. Little sign of anything to resemble a repeat of 2012..a bit of troughing doesn't spell the end of summer, just like High pressure now, does not mean a 2018 repeat is likely. I can't see anything currently to suggest big heights over Greenland, and even if it does, that doesn't necessarily spell the end of summer.

When it’s showing that at 120, I’ll be more convinced!

You can’t hold back the tide forever GEFS resolute with large pressure drop, showers are likely to be seen going into June.

Contingency planner is out and is very good https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

I really like the 18z GFS, even though it probably won't verify and will probably change in the next run. Why, you ask? Because a cut off low brings some welcome rain to the British Isles at the start of June. But, as that cut off low pushes further south, it allows warm air to drift up from the continent (14c uppers in the east). As a result, along with the high temperatures and humidity, this could produce thunderstorms in southern areas. Obviously because of the lack of aircraft data, this could change dramatically in the next few runs!

Yes, I think the models are fairly consistent until about day 7, after that model guidance becomes muddled at best. So best to enjoy the coming week, and although there is a signal after that for a cooler flow with the high moving west to a variable extent, depending on the model or run, it is too far away yet to be sure. But towards the timescale when the individual runs start to paint an incoherent pattern, it is as well to remain cognisant of the longer term models and signals, and with respect to these, the MO contingency planners forecast favours heat, and to a lesser extent, dry. We will see...

Right on si... But just look at the mean and the op again, completely on a different page,you would think they were separate models.. GFS just seems to be getting more clueless with each passing day.

UKMO is a good run, looks to be a tad more uncertainty by day 6,that low to the SW looks to be out of harms way for now, but there is one to watch over Iceland at the same time frame, either side we have heights sliced through the centre and out into scandy. This is probably why some of the pros are using the words low confidence next week.. Looks like it could be later this week before we know for sure the direction of travel next week is. Alot to like up to that point though. Wouldn't take much for a link up with these heights would it! I keep thinking of 95 here, there were a few occasions when unsettled spells looked locked in but never really got locked in before heights regained control... Wishful thinking I know, but I just can't get it out my head... Sounds like a love song doesn't it..

Don't think anyone has promised that; just that some background signals indicate that it is a possibility. It is a fact, though, that the really cool and unsettled charts have consistently been at 10+ days, and remain so. They may come to fruition, but it seems unlikely at the moment.

Look as if the mighty, peerless GFS 00Z has come good, this morning? Or at least less bad! And, just like this time last-year, the GEFS ensembles are flapping about a lot? So, next question: Which way will the ECM flap!

And 168,the high looks to have more influence into Scandi,will this stop the trough coming down from the NW? still looking fine and settled up to this point.

Apart from that late May spell, 2012, (after an exceptionally warm late March spell), was unremittingly cool/cold and unsettled from about 9th April through to late July IIRC. Nothing like this year. This could be more akin to 1989 when after a fine May, June had a cool unsettled spell first half (my only 2 weeks off during the whole summer) before things turned generally fine and very warm again.

Looks like GFS 6z will possibly overdo the rainfall amounts... Or will it! There are some signs of low pressure from the South having more influence over the weather next week, but confidence is low on this.. Will it stay South or nudge further North to bring a rash of showers! It looks to stay on the warm side throughout.. And I still feel any unsettled spell will be brief, but the risk is there of a little top up for the Gardens, and I'm sure some are crying out for a little of the wet stuff.. Pardon the pun.. Low resolution graphics from the GFS make it look like a monsoon... Can't see it being that bad but the chances of some rain next week do seem to be on the increase for now..

06z GFS still showing 14c uppers in the SE

It's been pushed back though; It keeps getting pushed back. I do think that we will see HP in the Atlantic for a time, but the ridging for Greenland seems to be an outside bet at the moment.

Flaming June?!? Just had a quick look at the 00Z GFS now that the Summer and hopefully staycation (unfurloughed for some of us key workers) holidays are approaching (it the locals allow).

Hi everyone. Here is the latest storm forecast, has been consistent with very little if any change, for at least the last decade.

Exactly my thinking I'm off middle 2 weeks of June fully expecting a washout typically! Very frustrating as I'm a keyworker have had 0 time off work to enjoy this extended early summer. Fully hoping the showers are pushed back past this period

12z UKMO @120

Very positive read, saying la nina is less likely to have any dramatic affect on our conditions.. Warmer water around our vicinity likely to lead to warmer than average conditions to.. Maybe not quite 2018 territory but looking good all the same.

To continue briefly with the gfs. Things get a tad complicated over the next few days as further amplification of the subtropical zones disrupt the Atlantic trough forming a cut off low to the south, but another trough develops within the tpv and swings south east around the Atlantic high down across Ireland to phase with the trough to the east. Thus some more unsettled weather on the cards and perhaps quite windy but the detail of this is a long way from settled

The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight The cloud and very light intermittent rain associated with the front(s) will slowly move south east through the day and slowly dissipate. Clear and sunny north and south of this and warm in the south east (usual caveats vis model max temps) Still a fair bit of cloud in parts of the south/east tonight but clear elsewhere and quite cool The aforementioned cloud should clear Wednesday morning leaving a fine sunny day for all, but some cloud and light rain may well effect the far NW later as a warm front slips past Over Wednesday night through Thursday the centre of the high cell moves east into the North Sea as the Atlantic trough swings around it's axis west of northern Greenland. But another sunny day for most with just cloud and patchy rain in the far NW for a time The pressure on the ridge continues on Friday but again another sunny day And by Saturday the ridge is stretched, linking to high pressure to the NW and NE as it is flanked on either side by the troughs But still another dry and sunny day, usual caveats eastern coastal regions, with perhaps the odd shower in the west

One less crow around here, found as deid as a Norwegian Blue on the lawn this morning. Not that unusual actually, with a big garden we average 3 or 4 per year. Not a bad day today, especially the morning when it was up to 18C or thereabouts. Clouded over in the afternoon and the breeze got up again but it was OK out. The good news is that the apple trees managed to keep thier blossom despite the winds over the weekend. The cherries fared less well but they weren't completely stripped. Time will tell as to how they will fruit. Two years ago they were festooned, last year they produced very little as I'm sure we had winds again. Later that time, as the fruit was developing, leading to lots of leaves and fruit stalks all over the grass.

And there is no gremlins lurking in the woodshed from the cpc 500mb outlook anomaly's it's looking fine and settled to me but i wouldn't mind a few thunderstorms chucked in too