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Showing content with the highest reputation on 14/02/20 in all areas

  1. The GFS 6z ensembles for me show a downturn in those temps moving forward, the mean most definitely is lower.. I'm loving a few of those ensembles, the one I'm posting...... Come to papa...
    15 points
  2. As a bit of Valentine’s fun, been fishing in the barrels of the 00Z GEFS ensembles this morning. For cold and wintry weather, 0Z GFS Perturbation 9 is this morning’s winner! ? (well, at least until the 06Z run comes out ?) But... don’t want the cold and prefer something milder and drier? It was a tough decision, but I feel the winner goes to 0Z GFS Perturbation 5! Right at the end of the run! (although High Pressure is generally quite dominant around the UK area, especially over South-Eastern parts for a fair chunk of that run in FI). This GFS ensemble membe
    11 points
  3. The achievement of an Arctic oscillation of +6 has taken 70 odd years to record- So you could say that its a 1:70 event. Tonights ECM goes for a +7 index value in just 9 days time .... Record on top of record if it happens. Thats how special this winter is....
    9 points
  4. Just taken a wet and wild walk along Elie beach! Absolutely brutal in that wind! Just the 2 photos (of a mostly empty beach) as my hands were too cold to take any more ??
    8 points
  5. Dennis just beginning to get it's act together as the trough from the Labrador Straits and the other that has tracked up from the eastern seaboard merge in the south west quadrant of the huge trough already in situ in the Atlantic
    8 points
  6. That's a good point Mike, I'm starting to wonder also if these climate models are over playing the global warming that is factored into there programming! Because everytime we see a seasonal forecast these days, it basically predicts warmer than average! Would be interesting to see how these models would handle a situation of an entire year being cooler than average.
    8 points
  7. Well it nearly 4 in the morning here in Reykjavik and I can tell you that the wind here is far worse than anything I experienced last weekend with storm Ciara in the UK mind you the near hurricane force Blizzard is something to behold. Gives lamp post watching a hole new meaning. The Icelandic Met adopted the met office severe weather warning system seven years ago and this the first Red warning they have ever issued for south Iceland.
    8 points
  8. Picking up on a point made by kold in the Storm Dennis thread, it's the saturation of the ground that is already problematic. Our local park has been waterlogged since way before Christmas, with a pond regularly appearing in our garden after each storm. For areas already flooded or at risk of flooding, there is little to no capacity left to absorb yet more heavy rain. I wonder what March and April will bring? Can't help feeling winter will turn up exactly when none of us want it... Rant over, but here are some pics of ponds where ponds aren't supposed to be at the local park...
    7 points
  9. All I know is cause my ms med compromises my immune system, normal colds make me very ill, the flu nearly put me in hospital in October. I have to try and avoid this one if I can.
    7 points
  10. Take care if you’re near Cardross at the moment folks ?!
    7 points
  11. Yes, it was a lovely sunrise here in Suffolk as well this morning. This wind gust chart for East Anglia a great way of showing the forecast period of strongest winds expected this weekend from Storm Dennis. Saturday and Sunday will see a lengthy period of winds gusting around 50 - 55mph here. Chart courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_
    7 points
  12. Sixty mbs in 30 hours! Whichever way you hack it very impressive cyclogenisis Which also initiates warm and moist advection with a long fetch resulting in likely some heavy rain. A mini atmospheric river
    7 points
  13. It is disappointing to note that the potential impact of this viral infection, on individuals, local/national communities or on a global scale is so arrogantly dismissed. Anyway, whether it evolves into a pandemic, or not, there will be a beneficial learning curve for future reference.
    6 points
  14. I think that assessment of this thread is a wee bit unfair. The concerns are not simply about the mortality rate associated with 2019nCoV but more the impact of widespread morbidity on essential services and business. This is an unknown, and is an interesting and important topic for discussion, as are the measures which might be taken to control the spread. And I have not noted much in the way of fake news on here, except, maybe, the determination of one or two to make uninformed ‘off the cuff’ comparisons with seasonal flu.
    6 points
  15. Rapid cyclogenisis Cloud Structure In Satellite Images http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/CMs/RaCy/navmenu.php?tab=1&page=1.0.0
    6 points
  16. -3C in Halkirk just now (unless my car's reading wrong) which is a bit lower than suggested in forecasts. Perhaps the snow cover is depressing it and there's not supposed to be any snow cover left . Anyway it's nice to have winter here at last even if it'll soon be away again. Oh and guess where Ms HC is heading for half-term? Northern England.
    6 points
  17. Glencoe: Some from the car snaps on the way through: We stopped in one of the car parks and went for a walk, up to the side of the Three Sisters. The snow was a variety of one inch deep to several feet deep. Absolutely glorious conditions for a walk: And then out the other side:
    6 points
  18. You really have an absolute nerve. YOU are spreading fake news about this virus based on a few snippets of posted news on internet; YOU have NO concrete evidence of what will happen. It is just you posting your own sick agenda. There was a veiled warning from govt and health authorities earlier about the internet forums, social media spreading fake news.
    5 points
  19. Thinking the Welsh mountains could gobble up the worst of the rain here in the south of the region. Looking horrendous for north Lancs & Cumbria though. Hope you guys up there stay safe.
    5 points
  20. Sorry to hear that so many of you guys and your families are struggling with chronic conditions. My ex wife has fibromyalgia and all the joys that brings with it, plus she's had bacterial pneumonia twice in the last 6 months so has weakened lungs. She wants to do everything possible to avoid getting ill but works at a special school, so is very often exposed to viruses as the kids often can't / won't / don't understand how to avoid coughing into the air. Back to the virus. My workplace has put a rule in place regarding foreign holidays, until further notice. Anyone intending to fl
    5 points
  21. I have a similar problem but mine is a Neuro Degenerative disease and I am mostly housebound, will do my best to avoid this one if possible.
    5 points
  22. My eldest daughter's bipolar treatment has the same effect, alexis: the nasty 6-day cold that I'm just now getting-over (headache, sore throat, voice like Lee Marvin etc.) kept her bedridden for around 4 days...Just do your best to keep clear of COVID-2019...?
    5 points
  23. Sounds hopeful? Plea for plasma after positive results with coronavirus patients in China WWW.SCMP.COM Health of critically ill people treated with antibodies from recovered patients improved in tests, biotech company says.
    5 points
  24. In the influenza v's Covid-19 some helpful soul over on ASIF put together some graphics comparing the US Flu stats with Covid-19 stats;
    5 points
  25. Brexshyte and Covid-19...... what a year this will be for us all!!! Coronavirus may impact global supply chains until year-end - Lloyd's Loading List WWW.LLOYDSLOADINGLIST.COM Effects likely to be felt throughout much of 2020, even if the worst effects of the outbreak are reached soon, according to one leading US-based freight forwarding and third-party logistics provider
    5 points
  26. At this range, just glad to see no clear signal for anything nasty - which there could have been after the winter just gone/going. And as there isn't a clear signal you can read what you want into a 3 month average anomaly...which is why I prefer the probability plots. The ridge to the SW could be more relevant for the south than the feature you identify. I do agree that practically every month, the model shows a higher probability of warmer than average, but that is still a prediction.
    5 points
  27. I wouldn't completely dismiss the idea - ECM and GFS both show it as a possibility, and the mean is down to -5 at the end of the month. There is a definite trend to pull the high to the west a bit, which would give the northerly chance. Nothing long lasting, but a very short cold shot isn't out of the question. ?
    5 points
  28. I think Prof Ferguson is suggesting a high ratio of unreported/unrecorded cases. Not anything nefarious in terms of hiding the #'s, more that a number of those that are sick are not ill enough to be seeking help from the authorities and go under the radar. This would make sense, you have a ticklish cough, it could be Covid-19, it could be hayfever, you don't feel ill to any extent, so what do you do? Self quarantine and keep quiet? Or alert the "authorities" and find yourself under house arrest or whisked off to one of the new hospitals? You are likely to keep schtum unless you need med
    5 points
  29. Morning all, And a Happy, albeit snowless, Valentine's Day to all the female Members of the S.E.Thread. You'll be pleased to hear, I remembered a Card for "Septic" (Wife Colette). Poor thing went off to work at 6.15, for her early Morning shift. I've given her strict instructions, not to work on this Afternoon. Likewise Tomorrow, she has an early Morning shift but Tomorrow is our 10th Wedding Anniversary, evidently our Diamond Anniversary but I can't afford a Diamond, so I've bought her a humungous box of Chocolates. Like my original prediction in snowray's Snow Competition
    5 points
  30. 5 points
  31. Blimey GW, and this is not a criticism of you personally, but if anything ever summed up social media..... do 'likes' provide validation? Who sits around counting their 'likes' and comparing to others', let alone judges others by the numbers? I could probably find a site that is populated by people that think this virus is a plague sent from God and get loads of likes by posting stuff that they will, you know, 'like'.
    4 points
  32. just shows the hysteria on this forum..i belong to only one other forum on the internet..their post count is at 121..here we are past 1,100 on this topic (btw they have more members)
    4 points
  33. The wind and rain set to drop and clear behind the cold front Sunday afternoon, could well be a nasty squall line on it, for the southern half of the UK. But the position is complex in the north west as Dennis fills and drifts south east to be 951mb just north west of the Hebrides by midnight Monday
    4 points
  34. An interesting facebook post today from my lads school he attends a private school in wolves and they have stated that this half term all 60 Chinese borders will not be travelling back home and will remain in the uk this will be reviewed at Easter certainly taking it seriously
    4 points
  35. Something that you should always consider BB is that "responsible" professionals will give an opinion on based on a balance of probabilities. What they will (or should) never do is go on national TV and say "we're all doomed i tell yer, doooommmed!" even if they are aware that there is a real, albeit very very small possibility that is the case. What you are seeing on TV at the moment is responsible advice that is intended to comfort and reassure the public, and it is I believe almost certainly correct advice. There is however always the possibility of outliers - worse case scenarios. These a
    4 points
  36. I think crunch time was a day or two ago, but it still isn't resolved, here GEFS and ECM ens: Up to now I had been siding with ECM, but on today's plot seems to be doing the MJO equivalent of reversing round a roundabout. Not clever, not safe. I'm switching allegiance to GEFS now, maybe this will deliver a late winter cold blast a couple of weeks down the line.
    4 points
  37. Was panic buying at the supermarket this morning. Mainly comprised of harassed blokes buying flowers and boxes of chocolates. To ward off an outbreak from their beloved I expect. There was no shortage of anything. A normal day for Friday.
    4 points
  38. Consistency again from the GFS 06z with the upcoming pattern, so at D12: Azores high/ridge and trough into Europe. UK within the two features. Could improve for cold or may not but *potential for a change even if only transitory. So into FI on the 06z
    4 points
  39. But actual temps have been above average, for most of the time, too, Crewe...??
    4 points
  40. Yup, it was a gorgeous sunrise up here in the hills of Eastbourne too. I have stopped taking photos of amazing looking skies/weather phenomena as what looks amazing to my eyes always looks crap from my phone ?
    4 points
  41. Lets try stick to the virus and not political systems, eh?
    4 points
  42. When is it not a 'warm season' these days?! On a more serious note, the warmer than average conditions show no sign of abating from the latest GloSea5 charts. Does make you wonder......
    4 points
  43. Feb GloSea5 is out, just one plot tells you all you need to know about the 'winter' legacy, 2m temperature Mar-May: No clear signal on precipitation at all so I won't post the chart. I have to say I'm interested in this from the point of view of summer now, so here 2m temperature and z500 for May-Jul: Maybe hardly surprising that hotter than average is favourite given the recent past, and nothing that suggests some summer nightmare from the heights charts, although obviously they are are means over 3 months and many runs, uncertainty over summer, but not much of a
    4 points
  44. Sorry, my comment was more of a rhetorical question directed more at those who seem to take every snipped of info as bad news. My point was, if only 5% of cases are recorded, then thats excellent news, because that would put the mortality rate through the floor. If its a case that 28000 deaths have gone unrecorded, then obviously it would change things, but even in a densely populated area like that, I find it hard to believe that 28000 people could of died at home etc, and no one knows about it. SO, its either very good news, or China are hiding 28k deaths. Despite my opinions on the pol
    3 points
  45. Latest MJO update from the GEFS . Not backing down , phase 7 and edging into phase 8 . Crunch time approaching! The ECM update will be crucial now to see if that makes any move towards the GEFS. We really need the GEFS to be correct .
    3 points
  46. 3 points
  47. In Elie for the weekend and it's just as visible here too!
    3 points
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