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Had enough of this cold weather? Have you been winter-ing in Scandinavia or Canada this year then, bud? GFS continues with a turbulent outlook into the semi-reliable. Never overly-mild but, my God, grim for proper winter weather

Sunday really does look wild on the latest ECM: Scotland: England, Ireland, NI and Wales: Heavy rain/sleet/snow showers piling in for Monday and Tuesday! Huge waves off the South West coast of Ireland on Thursday. Bring on some exciting weather at last!

Still, frosty morning and a nice sunrise.

We have a lot of weather going on over the next 7 days, so if you're going to make a post about how 'grim' it might be, head to the moans/banter/chat thread. If it's to do with the Met Office or longer range, please head to the appropriate threads. That also goes for discussion about the Summer. Thanks.

13 days away though, I'm not goona get to concerned by that yet!! But Yeh it's more likely to materialise than if it was showing sub zeroe To the here and now, could we at least get the right side of marginal to bring a decent risk of snow to certain areas.... Hopefully more widespread. Fingers crossed on this one, just 1 dumping of snow will satisfy the masses I feel... I've just had a new phone, and it's dying to record a snow pic..

Chances of a repeat of last year's February temps, anyone?

Latest gefs ens are showing an 100% snow risk for my area on the 10th with sub -6,-7's> in the mix with a rogue -8 even in London it's not too shabby to see some of the white stuff falling from the sky with a 60% chance i suspect this will change and again i note that there might be a few surprises as we go into next week.

Fantastic - hot and thundery. Even better! Can't believe how pathetic this winter is that, in early February, we're talking about June already. Sad, sad times for winter in this part of the globe

Now what’s the betting this will verify. +13 uppers into the south . This winter has been a joke .

I still think looking at GFS at the moment that modest elevation will be alright, 850's between -6 and -8 give or take. Thickness will likely have a bigger part to play as we're well within 518, 520 DAM which can often be a tip in favour of snow when 850's aren't outstanding. Dew points also look right side of marginal at the moment too. The only factor not looking great is the Wet bulb temps but they're not horrendous being anywhere between 0 and 2 degrees at midday. Plenty time for change but I reckon on those factors, inland areas with respectable elevation will be fine for snow, around 150m upwards. Maybe a little dicier at lower elevations but not to be ruled out. Here are the parameters for Monday in order of 850's, dew point, wet bulb Tuesday Wednesday I do like the look of this morning's ECM precipitation chart too for Monday I'd put my neck out and say that if those parameters don't change too much then the Met office will be issuing snow warnings this weekend, especially for those above 150m

The latest GFS run to me shows mostly a high ground snow event next week. The potential runs from Mon to Wed with a brief mild sector on Thursday with the snow line rising (subject to the front timing /position as it could be a more widespread event) and back to snow showers for Fri/Sat. For areas who do get snow in the west it could be a good event but to me it looks to be mainly a >2/300m event in terms of lying snow with brief dustings to lower levels in heavier showers for a short window on Tuesday .(based on GFS only) Let's hope for some upgrades in terms of the cold over the next few days as it only needs to be a degree or 2 colder for it to be more widespread.

Quite often charts get mistakenly identified as showing a 'Bartlett High' Identifying this vileness as a Bartlett wouldn't be a mistake If winter finishes like this, I will put this season up there (or down there) with 1988-89 as the joint worst winter in my memory

After this colder snap with that PM flow the models reform the PV and stick the blob of doom to the nw which is just about the worst place for it . This then throws up some TM air ne ahead of it . Unfortunately there seems a strong signal for that across the outputs . Let’s hope that earlier PM flow can throw up a few surprises because the outlook after that is pretty awful for cold .

Thanks Ross B, more of a breakdown of Scottish snow potential in your one post than there is wading through pages of the model thread

Potential snow for the Low next Thursday of course way out but shows how it can deliver if the low is entrenched with a PM Flow

Hi gang not posted in a while due to being that there is nothing to comment on in regards of the weather,hasn't it been utterly dire this winter(so far) but there does seem to be some snow forecast for early next week,it's not an IMBY post from me as i want all of us to see some snow next week but esp the NW will take the brunt of all the snow action esp the pennines northwards but....you never know with these scenario's that more places might get a surprise snowfall at some point and not just the north if the models are overplaying these intense low pressure systems(like they do esp the gfs) then there is every reason for shallower systems to track further south and bingo you would have a snow event somewhere in the UK but there is a possibility that the systems will track that far south that everyone misses out,seen it many times this is not nailed on yet and won't be until the day or two before a lively week possibly late weekend and into next week but what happens after? the latest look at the MJO(the models will not pick up on this yet) but i hope for the majority on here that the amplified phase into phase 7 has some legs this time going into 8-1,something to salvage from this dragons breath winter that has been torched so far and interestingly the 10 hpa chart shows some uptick from the JMA plot,can we refrain from that final nail in the coffin,there is still time.

Kidding ourselves from any direction this Winter! 150/200 meters is the place to be this Winter to see actual snowfall! @Stormeh you working Monday night/Tuesday morning? You could be in luck if you are. @Ruzzi seeing snowfall as usual I would imagine. Sod off already Winter 2019/20 ye absolute stinking pile of sh*te!

Saturday evening overnight could be very windy for northwestern areas in particular but Stormy weather for many is looking likely for Sunday a powerful jetstream in excess of 200mph will likely develop across the Atlantic helping to really deepen this system as the centre moves close to the north of the country.. Many places likely to see 50-60mph with the potential for 70-80mph in a few places exposed and coastal areas mainly all this accompanied by heavy rain moving across the country this could be sqaully too. Ecmwf.. Gfs.. Upper air temperatures.. Wind gusts.. The wave depression that's modelled by this mornings Gfs and Ecm for Monday/Tuesday is not the storm that they've shown which could bring a stormy midweek period the low pressure system is there but the difference is its shown moving across the Atlantic towards us by Wednesday/Thursday instead of tuesday/Wednesday. Yesterday midday Ecm.. This mornings update for same time.. This is the system.. Other models make this wave feature on Monday/Tuesday into the more significant low but uncertainty in this time frame. The potential is there for a storm but its something to keep an eye on but that's all atm. Sunday is one to watch though as it could bring some damage and disruption.

Good summary, Ross. As has been commented on many times in here, GFS does seem to forever be over-egging westerly based cold spells at 5-7 days only for the numbers to be 'watered down' in the reliable.

I think Sunday evening is the one to watch for the moment - anything beyond is merely potential but speculative - this is not to be sniffed at. Quite rare to see the entire country, right into central areas, experiencing such strong winds. Not quite a "Burns Day" storm but will be notable. If there is any late developing lows in the flow, it will only be worse - don't rule that out. ECM is in complete agreement - actually, looking at its raw data, I'd say the ECM is 5mph higher than this. There may well be blocked roads and rail on Monday morning. The Wednesday (Thursday?) storm looks a little less popular this morning but it hasn't disappeared - a decent cluster of ECM members still have a 100-120mph gusting storm crossing the country in the middle of next week, in varying locations. Details won't be nailed down for some time yet, but Sunday looks highly likely to be stormy, perhaps severely so for parts of Scotland.

First storm up for Sunday, and for once, the Met Office have named it not Met Eireann. Perhaps might get another named storm for Weds/Thurs next week. Like London buses, all come at once!

I’m sure there could be nearer the time. Rain to start in the southeast on Sunday, followed by showers, which will be frequent and heavy, with the possibility of some hail and thunderstorms. Wintry showers are likely over hills. Gales in many areas, potentially stormy in the north and northwest. (Taken from the latest Met Office outlook summary) Give us all (snow lovers) this GFS and then a lovely warm/sunny spell end of February/start of March.

Surprised at the lack of comment on ECM and UKMO adding a nasty secondary low on the S flank of the major low this Sunday. That really ups the ante for the UK, especially Scotland. It’s the kind of finer detail that can take until a few days range to pin down. With which in mind - I’m not resting easy on next week yet, severe wind-wise. Though it does look that the mean major low position has shifted markedly west - hence its looking increasingly mild again too. GFS’ immense Euro high longer-term is likely down to it imitating a strong MJO phases 5-6, which promotes that sort of thing prior to a shift to HLB patterns of the MJO holds high amplitude right through phase 7, ideally 8 too.

Don’t panic,spring starts in just over 3 weeks,and watch the charts begin to start looking the complete opposite as we enter March.You can see how it will look by turning your screen upside down

Great summaries @Ruzzi and @Ross B I am still waiting til well within range of shorter range models but this ties in with what I was thinking / saying about thunder snow potential (on phone so can't post loads of charts) CAPE ready to move in from Atlantic combined with colder air convective precip literally lining up

High pressure will be in charge over the next couple of days so apart from early morning fog a couple of quiet days with sunny intervals. The exception being the far north where it will be cloudy with some patchy rain today and tonight But make the most of these two days The forecast North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight Friday indicating rapid cyclogenisis is underway in mid Atlantic Fronts associated with this track east through Friday and Saturday bringing rain and strengthening winds, clearing east by the afternoon And as can be seen the low is now a remarkable 928mb just east of the tip of Greenland But note other frontal systems are readily developing in the baroclinic zone south of the main trough and one of these tracks rapidly north east over Saturday night and through Sunday and this will bring heavy rain, squally heavy showers and gales, plus a marked temp contrast

I thought i'd mention it, as they'll be members on here (some from the media, no doubt) that will take it literally. I can already see the headlines right now, unfortunately.

Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks

I would sacrifice the rest of Winter for a few potentially snowy days next week. Last flake was two years ago.

This is very true! Storm Ciara’s path is looking awfully similar to one a few years ago which hit Scotland direct west to east, with the winds funnelling through the lowlands peaking 90mph+ widely, with a top gust of 105mph-ish not far from me. Definitely exciting but also worrying...

Will we at last get some lamp post watching done ??????

Worryingly stronger and upgraded for Sunday. This is absolutely brutal. 80 to 90mph for many inland areas of the midlands and north. 80 across the south, in places like London.

Icon upgrades ( if thats the right word) for Sunday Brutal in some parts

Bugger it! I am moving to Glencoe mountain for a few weeks.

Unsure if this has been mentioned earlier on in the thread, but the 00Z GEM going for a shallow Low tracking Eastwards through Southern UK early next week. While the 850 hPa temperatures are marginal, it could bring a surprise bit of sleet and snow to those on the Northern flank of the Low. Especially on the high ground. Possibly around Central Midlands up towards Northern England. GEM snow depths for that day (next Tuesday) Not to be taken too seriously as could change again, although a shallower, less stormy, feature has the possibility to deliver more in the way of wintry weather for more areas of the UK. As longs, also, that these shallow secondary features have a reasonable amount of cold air to run into, otherwise likely to be just snowy events for the hills only.

I never thought of that! Good grief no wonder some of the tabloids show snowmaggedon weather stories, they must be viewing my precipitation charts. I'm a novice guys, and hold the front pages, the GFS does tend to get overly excited with snow charts, I only show them, cause I to get overly excited to. Seriously though batten down for some stormy conditions this weekend, there will also be a risk of snow in the flow next week!! Where and when will be subject to many upgrades and downgrades I would imagine...

Mean winds never appear to be that strong, however looking at gust speeds - 60-70mph inland. 80-90mph along coasts is very intense for February.

Beautiful morning today!

There are always going to be differences between the models and Exeter regarding rapid developments within the intense pattern likely at the beginning of next week so I will just leave this with the gfs take on Monday/Tuesday. Very strong unstable north westerly portending squally heavy showers with just about everything in the mix on a much cooler couple of days. In fact feeling cold taking the wind into account

I would be very wary of looking at GFS precip projections mate,esp at the timeframes involved. The 850s don't look low enough for low level snow to me, obviously things can change before next mon/tues but at this stage iam still thinking altitude of 250m minimum will be needed in the north and noth west. Hope im wrong mind.

06z showing a potential ground frost and depressed daytime temps so don't hold your breath!

My mate is actually arriving in Valencia in a couple of hours - told him it was roasting and he was buzzing...it’s back to mid teens from today! Bad luck for him! (He was hoping for mid 20’s) Chilly morning across Europe currently: I really hope we get a warm/sunny Spring and hot/sunny/convective Summer - that would be the dream seasons for me! Winter just isn’t cutting it anymore! (2018/19 and 2019/20) Think we (snow lovers) should all chip in some money and buy a big log cabin in Northern Finland! (Each member has it for a week during Winter) On that note roll on a cold/snowy spell, warm/sunny spell, thunderstorms or a severe gale event. 7c and cloudy currently is boring me to death! Edit: Met Office have named a storm! Have a good day everyone!

The latest magnitude for Betelgeuse that I have seen reported has it as 1.6

Fairly consistent outlook last several days beyond early next week's brief cold snap. The stratosphere appears well-mirrored in the troposphere over this side of the northern hemisphere, start of next week the strat PV elongated with one side across the NE Atlantic and other side over Siberia, similar in the troposphere looking at 500mb, strong W/NW flow deep through the atmosphere over the far N Atlantic. However, by day 10 the SPV tightens it's circulation and becomes more rounded while the core drifts back towards Greenland, probably because the strat warming over N America subsides, this mirrored in the troposphere, with a more rounded TPV in the means back over Greenland, strengthening ridging over Europe and a milder SWly flow across the UK. Extended EPS showing this signal for a while now up until day 15. Monday EC 10mb and EPS 500mb mean 00z Day 10 EC 10mb and EPS 500mb mean

Even better today!

Still lots of uncertainty regarding exact Wind/storm stacks over the weekend into next week, Here's NetWx take. Don't expect ant 'final coffin nails' to be hammered in for another few days yet..

To illustrate the point made above this is the ecm for 1800 Saturday And Sunday. The center of the low is nearly 10mb lower than Exeter

I think to dismiss the charts as being unrealistic is a bit short sighted. I’m pretty sure the recent record lows in Russia and highs in Australia were seen as such when forecast, this year seems to be of extremes and looking at some of the charts we may be seeing one!!!!

Actually, the ECM 12Z managed 100 mph gusts for the west coast of Ireland on the same day, so not totally different.

Just pray if we get a low that deep heading our way mid-week, as 18z GFS suggests, it tracks even further south. 90mph+ winds along southern England, even if it is night time, not good for us soft southerners. Significant snow / blizzard for the NE as the low clears