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I've got a few things for you, all from 1 run on the GEFS - we haven't seen images like these for 2 months... Might lead to nothing but still shows a window of possibility for something that until hasn't existed since November.

There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'... With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them... Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK. Feels good to be able to mention the snow word.. Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom.. We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.

Sadly, spring started ages ago.

Even a flake of snow falling out of the sky, would be nice, as the output looks utterly dire again in the longer term.

WOnder if this is a QTR - anyhow - if we could get to here we would be staring down the barrel of a severely cold late winter / Early spring.

Yep! - Here she comes.

At the end of December people were saying there is still 9 weeks of winter left, roll on a month, and we are heading for one of the mildest January's ever! The models say what they say and at present they suggest mild rather than cold as a whole, so does not matter how long is left if the NH pattern is cycling us through a long-term mild synoptic! The mean has a bit of a way before it mimics the op, so zonal is still possible. Personally some early warmth and settled conditions rather than average and wet is my preference as chasing rainbows is wearing thin: T300 mean>>>

Yes, on some models they are. On the latest GFS run (which is all I was commenting on) the temps are around freezing at times including when the snow fall accumulation chart I posted is referring to. Anyone expecting snow men and days off work are going to be disappointed but there’s a fair chance of at least seeing some snow falling Mon night through to Weds am IMO.

Regarding those comments from damianslaw, must say do remember 2005 well. That 2004/05 Winter felt under-whelming overall (certainly for this area). But that mid to later part of February 2005 did bring a sudden transformation to some much colder, wintry, conditions with snow on the attack from the North and East! The below charts from the GFS archive illustrates this quite well: This setup didn’t really bring more than around a cm or two of the sparkly, white, stuff. However, synoptically, the Northern blocking was pretty impressive, and the Easterly/North-Easterlies lasted a fair while. It may be possible that should the likes of the GFS continue to model some kind of UK High within the next 2 weeks and there can be room for it to shift further North (a weakening Vortex to help with this), then repeats like late February 2005, March 2013 etc isn’t totally infeasible. Albeit the latter in particular being a hard feat to achieve. Plus, would need other models to start showing signs for a UK High to develop, or maybe just having some kind of ridging developing in the mid-Atlantic. As a starting point anyway. I’m sure there would unlikely to be anything better for the cold and snow weather fans than to see the European High get flushed away down Netweather’s large loo. If not, a good ol’ kick up towards the North of the UK would do nicely for that fiendish High! For the cold weather, that light at the end of the tunnel is certainly needed.Perhaps the current roll out of the 12Z ECMWF could slip in a cold surprise towards the end. Although, even next week, while nothing too impressive, looks to be chilly for a time with models showing a Westerly to North-Westerly airstream bringing a possible wintry mix of weather at times. Most especially, but not necessarily exclusively, for Northern and Western high ground.

Because it’s going to be about 8 degrees with a strong west to south westerly breeze. little to no chance

Yes - a bit too far East but -8c into Scotland with -14c not too far away and sub -20c poised over Iceland.

Yes, this slowing of zonal winds certainly seems to have more mileage this time round, plus some of the EPS members in the 10-15 day range have been showing a reversal lately. Seasonal weakening of SPV would be expected as we head through Feb too, which will help. Then if a major SSW occurs we need to hope the response is quick and favours HLB that would position favourably to bring sustained cold to the UK. Lots of hurdles to get over, that’s after we do get a reversal in the bag!

Sorry,too late to the party but there is some interest in the latter stages of the 18z gefs ens,all JFF as we know but firstly the control run has a nice northerly P 9 and 16 the ens still look underwhelming though but at least there is some eye candy starting to show what have we done to deserve this mild dross of a winter,surely it cannot get any worse,i think i will take up painting and watching it dry,jeeeeeeeeze!!!! the IOD (Indian Ocean Disease) has done the damage so far lol.

Few more frames and we'd be looking at a split too.

Maybe, once next week's sleet & cold rain is out of the way, Day 10 is growing its 'summertime plumage'? Who knows?

If it came to it I personally would much prefer this than a crap high pressure sat over us for days with still foggy nothingness

Ok, here is the list of the late entries that are now also in the competition. 19. Katherine basso 31st Jan 20. laurren 20th Feb 21. Bazza118 10th April 22. Daniel 15th Feb 23. Mark Wheeler 22nd March 24. john stevens 29th Feb 25. Darkcloud 28th Feb The penalty that I have decided is that your entry will have to be spot on to win, not the nearest. Although if your just one day out and it snows in your home location then that would be good enough to win.

I think you are dreaming on the evidence we are seeing this morning. Ongoing dreadful output.

My thoughts tonight are we have been in a waiting game for winter to fully start. Ecm looks very interesting to me day 8/9/10 it's got a look about it that's strange. But my feeling is the deep cold in the North West is primed. I really think this winter will end very cold and snowy. From early Feb onwards is my prediction. Regards to next week's cool North westerly it's just a cool down to the main event. You heard it here first.

Unless there is a dramatic change in Febuary / March I think we can chalk this winter up as another non event, the forecast brief cooler spell on Monday / Tuesday will be just that blink and you'll miss it. Weird that there's not been many sunny cold days and frosty nights that I wouldn't mind one bit...but I'am fed up with this relentless dull mild damp pish..!!! This is just depressing...

I've lost all focus on the short term, I desperately need a snow fix... Almost 2 years for the love of god!! P6 from the 18z is a complete snow making machine..... Make it so... Edit... Me and si thinking alike.. Lol

A good run from the gfs this and at the end of the run another reload from north of Iceland,that's two runs on the trot now with the gfs showing a more amplified pattern towards the end the pv looks to have had it's final say this winter too and on this run the warming was much bigger over the states hands up pv!!!,you are surrounded.

Ship ahoy... Tha she blows.. Vortex on the move big time Feb. And its moving out of Greenland with a push of heights nudging to the South.

Yer I see you .

watching this end of GFS closely - could be a retrograde block come 372 - and you know i will post the chart if it does!

They sure are, which could be good and is certainly better than 20 options of rubbish

Been thinking back to 1995 recently and how things turned tail end Feb into March after a mostly mild Atlantic driven winter bar the odd cold snap.. early March 95 brought lots of polar air and snow for some. Not saying this will happen but there are many instances in more recent years when winter has arrived as it is ending after predominantly wet mild season.. some of the most potent cold of the year has happened then 2005, 2006, 2013, 2018...

I must admit I haven't bothered looking for a few days but this is quite the change. Obviously not withstanding the massive failing of GEFS back in December in this respect, hopefully it is more on the ball this time around? We shall see. If so back end of Feb / early March may be our best bet for something a bit more wintery

I'd take those charts anyday, at least the HP is flattened so cold air flows in after the storms move east. Much better than the GFS and ecmwf outlook - mild drizzly and windy for us in Scotland.

Having viewed the 00z Overnight Model Runs from the big 3 (ECM,UKMO and GFS), still nothing remotely Wintry jumps out at me, in regard to a settling Snow situation for the S,E.Region, as we enter the last few Days of January and early February. Only the Chart below, the 00z from ICON at t153 (30th Jan), caught my eye. If this chart came to fruition, it could be argued that something Wintry could fall from the Sky, as the wave moves away ESE and introduces the briefest of cold shots, before a Ridge of High Pressure, topples across the U.K. From the POV of formulating Betting Odds for the Competition, I don't have any firm ideas at the moment. But what I would say is, those with very early predictions, already look on "shaky ground". My Favourites at the moment would be those Entrants whose predictions are clustered around the 2nd/3rd Week in February. As we are aware, the Days are lengthening,the Sun getting stronger by the Day and to achieve settling Snow in our Region, starts to become more problematic. Of course there have been some notable Snowfalls in March but I think it's more common in February. And then that leaves GENERAL CUSTER, stuck out in November!! Pete, you are a caution, aren't you!! Regards, Tom. ?️

High ground needed to get above this mist and murk we're currently under...

Evening all I've long been of the view mid-February and later are when the synoptic charts will become more interesting so no surprise that isn't reflected within the current reliable or even semi-reliable. I'm watching strat developments with the thought late February could be interesting but it's all speculation. In the immediate an unsettled and chillier week last week gives way to a more anticyclonic spell into February as the trough digs down to the Azores and throws the HP ridge in front of it over western Europe from Iberia to the southern British Isles. The 240s from the 12Z output across the models all tell a very similar tale. The interest from the extended GFS OP is the LP sets up down near the Azores which pushes the anticyclonic cell up over the British Isles - the 850s are nothing unusual but I do wonder if we could see a fair amount of fog and frost IF we get a clearer circulation. Control ends on quite a tantalising note with a much quieter Atlantic and perhaps a ridge stretching south from a large HP in the high Arctic.

Below, is the updated and final list of Entrants, after snowray updated the list, this Morning. I've decided to split the Entrants into 2 Groups, as I did in my Snow Depth Cup. BLUE - Thames North and RED - Thames South. NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP ENTRY NUMBER MEMBER DATES (2020) 19. Katrine Basso 31st Jan 1. Timbo 10th Feb 8. TomSE12 14th Feb 10. Steve Murr 14th Feb 11. Septic Peg (Guest) 15th Feb 22. Daniel 15th Feb 2. Lottiekent 16th Feb 9. Team squirrel 18th Feb 3. Stainesbloke 19th Feb 20 Lauren 20th Feb 13. snowray 22nd Feb 17. Bluebell 22nd Feb 18. snow Queen one 24th Feb 14. SenlacJack 26th Feb 5. Donna thw 27th Feb 25. Darkcloud 28th Feb 4. pinball wizard 29th Feb 16. lassie23 29th Feb 24. John Stevens 29th Feb 7. Snowrye 1st March 6. Froze were the days 9th March 23. Mark Wheeler 22nd March 2. claret 047 23rd March 21. Bazza118 10th April 15. General Cluster 29th November A final Total of 25 Entries. - 8 Thames North and 17 Thames South. So the Thames South Group outweigh the Thames North contingent, by 2 to 1. "Come on you Reds." I need to go and have a look at the 12z ECM Model Run and then try and cobble together some Betting Odds. But will need a short refresher course on how to create a Book (Betting Odds). I've forgotten everything I've learnt during 25+ Years of working in the Betting Industry/ Thanks Brain Haemorrhage!! Regards, Tom. ?️ ?️

What I wouldn't give for even just an odd cold snap this winter! Nonetheless I can envisage a high sitting over the UK again on the modes pushing further north this time and , if it gets to a tipping point, maybe....just maybe

It looks pretty similar upstream to the GFS . The drama really starts a bit later . You can see that amplified wave working east on the GFS , this then down stream helps to amplify the Canadian high and that moves east . The issue is that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic . If that doesn’t split allowing the limpet high an escape route nw then we end up on the wrong side of the jet. If we see a quicker clearance of that shortwave energy then that would really help . Interestingly the pattern in the eastern USA with colder conditions was what NCEP suggested in their February outlook and they thought the MJO would be playing a role in that but we’ve had conflicting views on how much impact it would have . Some later MJO updates suggested it would have a limited impact but the GFS looks like some lagged effects of that .

Typical

Just been out to the garage to cut my wood for tonight..

Lost count of the number of times in the last 50 odd years we have been ready to sow crop in March in nice drying soils in March only to have a sudden fall of dry powdery snow.Springs are often snowier than winters up here.Sea temperatures are at thair lowest and N and E winds reach their highest frequency all the way to June and I have seen ice days in early April with blowing snow.Fresh snow often falls on the mountains round the Firth till June and last year in early May we had a .sharp air frost that knocked out all the apple blossom. One tree had only one apple on it this year. Having joned this forum in 2005 I now understand its the break up of the polar vortex which spillsl umps of cold air south over us in the spring when we can go from 21c one afternoon to -2c the following morning with dry snow falling. Putting cattle out to grass in the third week of April often tempts the weather gods to make it snow. Arctic outbreaks in spring are often characterised by showers of grauple too. Saw the result of a blizzard in the third week of May 1975 at Tomintoul burying sheep and lambs to be followed by doing agri exams 6 floors up in Aberdeen watching snow showers come in off the North Sea on the 1st of June 1975. So lots of time for snow yet. July is probably the only visible snow free month on the mountains round here although I remember seeing pictures of lying snow on the Cairngorms around the 7th of July one year.

To be honest though i was never quite on board in December, it never looked quite right, added to the fact that we have only just started using the GFS op for this purpose so its inherent biases are not yet fully understood, i am more hopeful with this upcoming event but concerned about the timeframe, also will the displacement SSW be enough to influence the trop favourably? It does displace the SPV into a favourable position but would we require a subsequent split to really have influence and also if we did get a split then where would the daughter vortices go?, the one thing on our side though with it being late in season is it might only need a significantly weakened stratospheric vortex in order for the tropospheric vortex to be able to do more of what it wants with the usual seasonal wavelength pattern changes late Feb.

I think with just 5 weeks to go and no signs of a SSW we can formally write off 2019/20 and consign it to the list of rubbish post 1987 winters from a cold viewpoint. Add in the endless rain apart from this last week of almost as miserable AC gloom then it becomes what I would consider as one of the top 3 worst winters of that period

I think you can have all the analogues you want, but nothing's closer to reality than what you start with...And springtime, this year, looks like starting with a lot of warm air.

ECM clusters - seem to be pushing the high a bit further north again as we get towards mid-Feb but another UK high would be more likely than a northern block.

A week on, winter 2019/20 has slipped to 16th mildest. Of recent years it has passed last winter, but has in turn been overtaken by 2013/14 and is still behind 2015/6 and 2006/7 - For lack of cold this winter is now 9th, but 2013/14 still rules the roost with basically no cold to this point whatsoever -

Couldn't agree any more. For us in the south its rarer than.... Rarer than... Can't think of anything rarer....

It even has some accumulations across the far south. Looks very marginal though

Looks like the 18Z ICON has two areas of precipitation. The first part on Monday night (showing to be just rain) missing us to the South going through South-Eastern UK. A more pronounced disturbance early on Tuesday brings an area of rain through the Midlands, perhaps with the odd bit of wintriness on high ground. The GFS 18Z run being a party pooper for snow on Monday too. Rain across the South of the UK (again, missing us in the Midlands), but a chance for some wintry showers to tuck in behind early Tuesday. Not checked the other models, but could be enough time for some of the models, such as the GFS, to bring our Monday snow back to life. (You know your want to, models. And don’t forget the areas to the South of that devious M4 ) (Edit: Just noticed Jordan Smith’s post above. Goes into some interesting detail regarding Monday)

Models have definitely trended away from a very deep low for Monday and instead limit its development as a wave depression the energy seems to be separated in the mid Atlantic one going south into Spain/France the other moving over southern England bringing heavy rain mabye some wintriness on hills if this is modelled to be further north in coming days then the risk of snow for more Northern areas as well as strong winds for the south still something to keep an eye on. Ecmwf.. Gfs.. Ecmwf and Gfs show this developing into a more closed area of low pressure once it leaves the uk. Gem.. Keeps the low south of the uk with lows to the north being the dominant feature for all bringing disturbances across the UK with heavy rain and perhaps some snow on the northern edge of these. Still uncertainty atm so details likely to change frequently in the next day or so regarding that lows depth track.

Morning all, Up early to view the 00z Overnight Model Runs. Will be going shopping early with "Septic Peg" (my Wife Colette). Got myself into "hot water" Yesterday Morning, when I got engrossed in the Competition and wasn't ready to leave our House, by 9 AM. "Septic" has Irish blood and a real "paddy" on her and with myself being half Italian, it got a bit fiery for a while and the atmosphere in the House, was poor all Day!! So I really don't want to incur the wrath of "Septic", two Days running. When snowray is about, if you could clear up a few points, about the Format for the Competition, I'd appreciate it. Just want to quote your initial Post about the Competition, from Wednesday Afternoon. "Hey anyone fancy a competition? When will it snow next and settle in our SE region? Even a dusting counts but not sleet or hail, must be snow. 1st prize for who gets closest wins a pack of 4 Cadbury flake chocolate bars, offered by me. Entrants have until 12 noon tomorrow the 23rd of Jan to submit a date". 1. Am I right in saying that the winning Entrant, will be deemed to be the one to correctly Forecast the first Date of settling Snow (even just a dusting but not Hail), in the S.E.Region? 2. Therefore an Entrants location and elevation, are irrelevant? 3.. Where 2 Entrants have chosen the same Date. Should they be correct, the winner will be deemed to be the Entrant that registered his prediction first? E.g. - Both myself and Steve Murr have predicted 14th February. Should we be correct in that prediction, I shall be deemed the winner, as I posted my Prediction 2 Hours, before Steve? Sorry Steve. Having worked in the Bookmaking Industry for 25+ Years, soon learnt that ambiguity was the Punter's Friend and the Boolmaker's, Enemy. During the last couple of Years of working for Croydon Credit Bookmaker, Sunderland, I helped to rewrite their Rule Book. As a regular Entrant into my Horse Racing Competitions, I'm sure LASSIE23 will vouch for the fact, that I'm a "stickler" for Rules and entry deadlines, re. my Competitions. When I "hosted" these "Fantasy" Competitions at work, I did so for quite a bit of Prize Money. For one UEFA Champions League Competition I had around 35+ Entrants, each paying an Entry Fee of £25. This gave a total Prize Money of around £1,000. So, it was vitally importabt that Entries were clear, concise and met the Entry deadline. I couldn't have Entrants handing in their Entries on the Wednesday Morning, after the first Match Night with a couple of Correct Scores and Goalscorers, in their Entry. With that sort of Prize Money on offer, quite rightly I would've got lynched. Snowray, please let ne know if you've accepted those Late Entries and what penalty they have incurred? I might employ the same penalties for a late Entry into my Horse Racing Competitions. Perhaps a deuction of £5, on your "Virtual" Returns Total. What say you LASSIE23? But I must admit, all my loyal and much valued Patrons of my Horse Racing Competitions, always have their Entries in promptly and in a clear and concise fashion!! Will report back briefly, after viewing the 00z Model Runs. Then I need to be ready to leave the House at 8.45, otherwise I'll be getting a lynching, from Septic Peg!! Regards, Tom. ?️

I was going to wait until midnight for late entries so your just in time. If I'm honest I wasn't expecting quite so many so will go through them tomorrow probably, I don't want to complicate things too much but they will be treated as a second tier of entries in the competition, so it will be a little harder to actually win, just to make things fair to those who hit the deadline. None the less if you are spot on then your a winner anyway because it's not likely going to be easy to pick the correct date with the way the models are looking at the moment, things of course could change very quickly so we should have a bit of fun at least.

the wider view not without interest either .....