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The ECM follows the GFS in terms of building a ridge ne . Although this is welcome it’s evolution and indeed that of the GFS have very little margin for error . And the GFS doesn’t really get the ridge as far ne as in previous runs . There’s really not enough upstream amplitude to help kick the ridge well into Scandi although the ECM doesn’t look like a sinker because of the upstream pattern and the shortwave over the south of the UK which as it heads se will help feed low heights over northern Italy . I think the best for the timebeing that can be said is we’ve moved from a dismal outlook for cold to at least the models playing with some better solutions . The MJO forecasts which Nick F discussed earlier are also better than a few days ago . They’ve also sped up the signal which escapes phases 4 and 5 earlier than previously forecast . We still have though a disagreement between the ECM and GFS as to what happens after phase 6 .

Good to have a Winter chill back in the air - lovely day. I thought the Nacreous clouds might have made an appearance - sunset behind that hill in the above picture and I got some colour. No luck this time - try again sunrise tomorrow! Have a good night! Edit: Cheers @Sceptical

Finally the wretched heights in Europe are disappearing,could be a big 2nd half of winter coming up,as predicted by some weather experts and some retired experts.

Had a bit of an extended lunch-break to go on a snow-hunt today (one of the small pleasures of being self-employed!). South of about Lesmahagow there was a smattering on low ground, but decent-looking cover on the hills. Surprisingly dry and powdery as it turns out! Didn't have time to take a proper walk up Tinto, but went round to the quiet side of the hill on the back road to Wiston and spent an hour or so wandering up one rise which goes up to 400m or so a.s.l. and then down the other side. Back up the M74, and quickly back to bright sunshine and green fields after the monochrome world of the Southern Uplands!

A 40mph drive into Edinburgh (well until everything went green down below Howgate and into Penicuik). Roads pretty bad, think we were caught out by the initial rain washing everything off the treated roads and then it turning to snow. Big crash on the A702 at the Red Barn/Melbourne. Meanwhile, the A701 really is turning into a gravel path with frequent big deep pot holes for mile after mile. 5cm in the end

Heavy proper snow here, world has turned white.Husband says it started about 6am.

Not posted in a few days,hi gang It's great to see this thread buzzing again and i know why is there tentative signs of a pattern change?,i hope so as we have not for-fulled our dreams yet this winter,there is some cooler weather this week thanks to some PM air-masses getting into the mix but mostly in northern parts of the country with snow on the hills now what i am interested in is the EPO(East Pacific Ocean) and Atlantic heights starting to play a part in the models and this could aid in wave 2 assault on the trop PV in a pincer type movement splitting the trop pv in time,one to watch P17 shows this possibility and what a beauty of a chart^. still a fair way to go then to see if any of the above charts are anything near the mark come the nearer time but i am liking the latest from the MJO that has been posted in here this evening,last evening showed this spiraling into the COD(circle of death),lets hope we don't have a kipper(no pun intended) of a run tomorrow.

The wait for lying snow goes on....but we did at least get snow on top of the Lomonds today. Shame they were 25 miles away!

4am 1.9°C and rain. Up at 6am and 0.4°C with massive snow flakes. 2-3cms now and waiting for light before driving into Edinburgh. Couldn't cope with a blizzard in headlights just now, so sat in waiting with a lovely cuppa. My first snow of the season. Lovely jubbly.

Trend from the models today is a shift in the position of the PV as we move through and out of the middle of January, it still looks strong, but becomes stretched with core heading towards Siberia,but still a strong lobe N Canada, what this enables is more of a polar maritime flow, with longwave trough able to anchor down through scandi, which would allow for some preety potent cold air to move down from the north west on the north west flank of the sub tropical high. Its the interplay between the trough and high which remains uncertain, a north-south split quite evident, just as we have had past 24 hours, colder uppers into the north, something milder and more settled to the south. Tentative signs of heights building north through scandi, but with the position of the PV I don't think they will build sufficiently. Anyone wanting a route to something notably colder, most likely path is the scandi trough, ridge building in behind, low pressure moving in off the parent lobe canada, with importantly embedded cold air, a NW-SE aligned jet instead of SW-NE aligned. By latter part of January, cold air trapped within the Pole region will be very cold - this year more so than normal, and any polar blasts will be far more potent than earlier stages in the winter.

Close to a to a split PV here...

Husband took this earlier, it's back on heavy again now so might get better pics later on.

I have but its worth highlighting an extreme event even for the hills. The way next week is shaping out Western Scotland is going to get buried ( with a bit of height )

Close but no cigar alright! Not only do we have some 'nearly cold' prospects, there's a chance of some 'nearly unseasonably warm' chances too? Does one look north? Or does one look south? HTF would I know!

GEFS still trucking nicely at decent amplitude through 7 and towards 8. EC/EPS not been updated yet on the RMMs, but be interesting to see if it's still killing the MJO wave in 6 - which may explain the lack of amplification and appetite of building a ridge N over Northern Europe.

Sneachda! Aboot a cm mibbies.

Continuing on from an improved ECM op from last night this mornings GFS ups the stakes for coldies with a ridge building ne . The evolution does though involve one of those stressful trigger shortwaves . This heads se to the Low Countries allowing the ridge to build over the top . The upstream troughing plays its role in digging south helping to force the ridge ne ahead of it . This evolution is quite complex and old timers in here know the many traumas inflicted on coldies by this! I think we’ll have to see what the ECM comes up with before seeing how much mileage the GFS op has. Even if we see some support it’s one of those set ups which isn’t nailed on till well within T120hrs.

ECM 12z @ t240 GFS 12z @ t240 GEM 12z @ t240 A comparison of ECM , GFS , GEM 12z runs t240 . All have high pressure just to the W or NW of the UK with varying degree of uppers over us. Certainly more interesting than a few days ago and a change to all those the barrelling lows coming our way perhaps. We could do with cold , frosty and relatively dry !

Yes, the ECM now sniffing out changes down the line. I was kind of worried that it was going to stick with the strong PV theme so although not perfect it's some relief that there are similarities to the GFS with this amplification. Might get some decent runs popping up in the next day or two.

It's giving it a second try though.

It’s nice to see some folk seen a bit of snow today. I found some pictures while on Twitter. I see there is some optimism in the mad house for a possible pattern change. Hopefully we can get a decent cold spell as we head into February.

Best run in a long time for snow potential with lows sliding / disrupting against the Scandi block with cold air in place

EC looks OK, certainly a better run than the 00z and potentially colder options down the line ..

Had to scrape the car here this morning and drive to work was -2 or -3C all the way. Bright but cold day in Inverurie and -1 or -2C on the drive home. Nice to see some snow pics, even if we'd all like it to be much snowier.

Can we trust the GFS? Or another over amplified solution which gets watered down as per winter thus far

This was posted on FB this morning, taken by one of the drivers from a coal firm in Duns

It's odd because usually it comes from the west and piles up against that fence/hedge. This morning it's coming in from the east and piled up on the neighbour's side of the hedge. The A7 is oot there in that white stuff somewhere..

Morning all! @Kirkcaldy Weather I will be on the hunt for those nacreous (Polar Sratospheric clouds) at sunset tonight! (Clear and widespread frost forecast for later) Could it be!? Is it actually happening!? Thundersleet earlier!? Someone in here must be getting heavy snow at the moment!? I am getting very excited for everyone under that blob of sleet/snow! Enjoy if you are indeed seeing some snowfall. Have a good day everyone.

~70CM for Glencoe through Tues> Weds

Correct - and in the first place it assumes sufficient momentum in a jet angled NW to SE to force a significant wave break that can then hold its latitude. At 9th January we are still quite early in any attempt to interpret what may happen in the back end of the month when the Pacific signal may possibly come into solid territory for colder solutions, and seeing just how much disruption this might do to a strong trop vortex. We all know being brutally honest that we had hoped for a much less robust +AO pattern pushing through multiple layers of the polar atmosphere than we have now in the flatter phase of the cycle, and therefore the amount of well targeted momentum and upstream amplification needed to rock the boat as the crucial phase at the end of the month comes into play is higher than we would want. So I’m personally hanging tight for a bit yet and saying little. Reasons to be optimistic? GEFS may possibly be doing a better job of reading the MJO than EPS at present with signs of decent amplitude progress towards phase 7, and we rolled the dice in a pretty average context in 2018 and rolled double 6 for The Beast. Plenty of research now showing how an Atlantic system and relative pressure gradients in 2018 produced a disruption of extreme significance for vortex damage. What was rolled once can be rolled again.... (admittedly unlikely....)

Quite a positive GFS run with snow opportunities ...esp north with altitude i would suggest. Less promising news on the MJO front though according to marco petanga..

Big northerly incoming of the 12z

Slim pickings when the images above are our snow fixes..... Starting to wonder if gonna be a sledge less season for the bairns..... And the adults

Nice to see the very cold uppers over Greenland finally easing back as the coldest air moves east, good run this, PV finally relenting its grip.

Turning a bit sleety here now! Whoopie

Beat me to it. Yep, ECM has moved to GFS / GEFS from where it was yesterday. Assuming convection survives through the Asia Maritimes (never a given), things could get very interesting down the line.

No snow here in the end but when the rain cleared a cracker jack albeit cold day was snowing in east kilbride tho apparently

Yep didn’t go as I thought it would.

Think its gonna be a North Westerly.

No luck on the nacreous cloud hunt today here.

I think the ECM has updated, the dates the same as the GEFS anyway. It is not as good as the GEFS but significantly better than it was yesterday. Even a half way house between them would be decent.

he did say after a few slappings on the wrist that he would move over to his betting side and not post his usual musing. i for one miss his daily musings

Last time for UK was Feb 2016 What is so special about Nacreous Clouds- mother of pearl Polar Stratospheric Clouds - Blog by Jo Farrow WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Way up in the Stratosphere there is very cold air above us. It's causing excitement for those who watch such things as a precursor to a possible cold, winter spell. This air can produce Nacreous Clouds...

Last Saturdays post. ^ ^ ^ Sorry @blizzard81 this is nothing new. I had actually speculated the same thing last Saturday as the 8-14 day chart was heading towards a Scandinavian high evolution. Sadly for coldies this did not progress and subsequent charts have downgraded any high building over Scandinavia. The 8-14 day chart has though consistently hinted at some rise in pressure to our near east/southeast, but they also retain a strong upper flow across Scandinavia. I cannot see any Scandinavian high building whilst such a strong upper flow is expected.... Nor is there any sign of a southerly tracking jet , in fact the anomaly charts have reduced the chances of that by lifting further north the previously expected deep mid Atlantic low as Saturday chart above illustrates. The most recent charts suggest a lot flatter pattern, which suggest imho a very unsettled average outlook, possibly on the milder side of average with the usual NW/SE variation. IMHO theres no cold, nor pattern change or southerly tracking jet on these charts. Of course, they might not be proven right, but i for one wont be putting any money on them being far from correct. So until they change, the previously described outlook remains in place.

The charts will look different by then. Not worth looking at precipitation type charts more than 48 hours ahead.

Just a hard frost in Caithness. Managed to park the car with the front almost under shelter so only the rear screen was iced up. And I must be getting old cos I have started using heated seats...

Something to keep an eye on with this morning's ecm. It develops another low at the base of the upper trough at t120 which then undergoes rapid cyclogenisis as it tracks north east

Rain here (not that I expected anything else) looking forward to pictures from those of you with snow.

2c with lashing cold rain! Lovely. Looking forward to my commute! Great to hear an actual snow report

Wow, if this is accurate and I have to say the gefs hasn't been too bad regarding the MJO this winter, we could be in for quite a nice finale to this winter