Leaderboard

I'm feeling more optimistic today than I have for a long time with regards to weather prospects. We're finally seeing the jet move a tad further S over the next 5-7 days and that is pretty essential if we're to start lowering heights somewhat over Europe. I'm not saying cold nirvana is on the way, far from it, but later Jan prospects MAY be picking up.

As a precursor to my theory that 14th January will see a huge shift, a theory for which I have completely ignored the models and any background signals, and relied instead completely on my imagination, note the position of the intense low to the west of the UK here..... GFS goes on to show it barreling through to the north of Scotland, albeit with some energy from it sent further south. After studying my imagination a length, I am convinced that, in fact, nearly all of the energy from this will be taken a lot further south that currently portrayed, and that will prove to be the big game-changer so many of us are seeking. Many might say that my imagination is no substitute for the models. This may be true, but it sure contains a helluva lot more optimism!

Some tentative good news for those who’ve given up on a pattern change, GFS/GEFS now taking the MJO wave into phase 7 around 20th Jan. EC still kills the wave in phase 6, but it does appear the model has a prone bias at killing the wave too early. The MJO is no silver bullet, but this tropical forcing on upper patterns further north can alter the wave lengths of the upper flow in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and amplify the troughs and ridges, depending on which phase. Phase 7 tends to force a cooler pattern rather than cold, but it’s P8-1 that force more blocking to bring colder patterns. Given the corrections of the MJO to move through to 7 rather than stalling it in warm phases, every chance we head through to 8 and 1 and decent amplitude. Lag effects unlikely until late Jan or early Feb if the GFS RMM plots are modelling progression correctly. Still uncertainty whether the MJO wave will make it across the western Pacific. In the meantime, expect more of the same zonal stuff next few weeks.

Certainly more in the way of cold options appearing in Fi now. No consistency but at least there isn’t a consistent Bartlett yawn any more

Good to see some changes showing up further down road. There is some talk on twitter of changes to the Strat and MJO. We're already starting to see increased heights forecast which should bring frost and fog and once we get the cold embedded we are in proper winter territory. It is only mid January folks.

Overnight control run is a belter with -12c uppers, there are a few others that have interest too. Yep, it’s FI but maybe a glimmer of hope. Control, make that -16c uppers into north Scotland

Yes I’ve noticed a few of the 6z GEFS are wanting to take the main vortex over the Siberian side. And now the GFS op wants to get in on the act

What could possibly go wrong ?? ...I’ll get my sledge ....

Hi gang ,i am more confident today that things are gradually very slowly becoming more Wintry for the UK .a couple of days ago i did say that there was a possible that Atlantic lows would move on a more southerly track and that i was hoping we would see also lows moving south east .not rocket science i must admit , but I'm sure something to get our attention and may be cheer us all up .Gfs is sniffing out the possibility of high pressure to our n east in extended outlook, and Ecm showing an angry North Atlantic attack, but positioning of lows past 6 days will be very critical. Exeter yesterday hints at a cooling down ,wo der what today will bring. Some newsworthy weather on its way and not all mild mush .and its only jan 8th , take care gang cheers .

Wow, if this is accurate and I have to say the gefs hasn't been too bad regarding the MJO this winter, we could be in for quite a nice finale to this winter

Now this really is starting to look more interesting: the possibility of something more wintry, from the NE, and some serious heat building, away to the SE...?

the signs to a block.....

Despite being in a generally flat westerly pattern, we are seeing changes even in the very short term, albeit temporary, but perhaps a sign of things to come. A break away shallow feature from the main trough anchoring through the centre of the UK, enabling some relatively chilly uppers to invade northern half of UK, snow for northern high ground and many places from a line roughly Morecame Bay to Teeside are about to see a day below average tomorrow, and a frost to boot Thursday night - first one of the New Year. Its an interesting development in itself, indicative I feel of a slow shift towards a more southerly tracking jet. The models are picking up on this as we move further through the month, gone are the balmy southwesterlies and replaced by polar maritime/returning maritime, and given the depth of cold bottled up to our NW, some quite cold uppers are forecast at times. Longer term, GFS is going for a split jet scenario with high pressure building in over the UK to calm things down and cool things down. ECM not showing this, but its rare to see GFS do this first, and ties in with Met Office forecast. Are we seeing the first hints of a pattern change.. or being led down the garden path.. At least we are seeing something different perhaps stirring for the first time since mid December.

January 2020 January 2019

Oh look, the M4!

Much better GEFS set this morning. Nothing special of course, just pretty good in the context of recent output. I’m wondering if maybe the Control has it right (synopticly speaking) and height rises to the NE are a bit of a red herring in terms of a catalyst for a future potential cold spell. Should we be looking at a final third of January MJO phase 6 mid Atlantic ridge response I wonder? Anyway, it would just be nice to see this increased amplification gain traction over f the coming days.

An amplified MJO heading into cold phases 7-8-1

Looks like our best chance of nacreous clouds (polar stratospheric clouds) will be over the next 2 (possibly 3 days) best chances will be at sunrise or sunset. I am really not sure of ideal conditions and will probably take a big bit of luck to see them but I have my fingers crossed that at least 1 of us might get lucky enough sunrise and sunset times for here over the next few days Thursday - 8:45 am , 3:48 pm Friday 8:44 am, 3:49 pm Saturday 8:44 am , 3:50 pm. Nacreous clouds WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Nacreous clouds form in the lower stratosphere over polar regions when the Sun is just below the horizon. The clouds are illuminated from below and often glow in vivid colours. Polar stratospheric cloud - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Met Office are slightly out with their temperature forecast. Forecast 4C Currently -2C.

Or it could be the starting point to something more interesting?

Morning. A wet evening and night to come for England and Wales some heavy bursts of rain at times from a developing low and as this pushes into northern England and perhaps southern Scotland then a risk of some mainly hill snow later tonight. some of this rain may push into northern Ireland, Turning windy for England and Wales with a risk of gales in exposure. After this area of rain clears into the north sea tomorrow morning another spell of heavy rain likely to move across the south during tomorrow evening. 10-20mm widely falling altogether throughout this period perhaps upto 30mm in parts of the south. The trend for the next week to 10 days has not changed much since yesterday or indeed the last few day's next week starts stormy for all and Very wet then continuing unsettled thereafter possibly into next weekend, remaining mostly mild although with colder air in the Northwest at times the possibility of some snow mainly for Scotland and over hills but with a very mobile set up there will be drier and calmer interludes between low pressure systems.

Much cooler this morning at 3c , still breezy with wet snow showers.

Apart from possibly some fairly brief visits of cooler Polar Maritime air from the West, as models, especially the 12Z ECMWF, shows Low Pressure from the West trying to crash through further East to the North of the UK at times, it feels like Winter is having an identity crises at the moment. It’s like Winter has forgotten who its meant to be. Keeping the towel on the heating rail for now, but for those who want cold and snowy weather, the current outputs are like a Dominos Pizza that’s become all hard and mouldy.

Always worth looking at jet stream profile forecasts for signs of possible pattern change. Gfs forecast showing a split flow with heights building inbetween around the 20th which ties in with 12z forecast

@101_North Fantasy xc forecast #4101?

GFS 12z UKMO 12z Sunday morning is not without interest for some up North with elevation . Good uppers according to GFS 12z at t96

And to think that I was told yesterday that the models should not be taken seriously for the next three weeks, and was about to start paining the living room tomorrow, and smoking my pipe awaiting for better times to come, but was this fake news I'm now asking myself. So I don't know what to do, I can still smoke the old pipe but should I go back to watching the models 24/7 and sd the living room, just in case they are actually onto something? Anyway lets see what the ECM turns up.

Indeed. It's a genuine anything could happen situation. The predicted system is exiting a very fast jet stream to the left....

Merely for interest purposes only especially as its for 9 days away but the Nasa Geos5 model earlier this morning showed a rather similar scenario albeit with this low developing into a very intense feature bringing more of a wind threat but snow too. Westerly or southwesterly winds will likely be in control at this stage with low pressure to the west so this scenario very unlikely to happen.

if the 7 shows up then its from now between 2-3 weeks late January.... hope it for all winterfans

Snow continues for Cairngorm:

ECM clusters backed off the Scandi High idea again - what we have now is fair confidence in the D12-D15 period of a strong High based close to the UK. Could be quite a cold and dry end to the month away from NW areas.

It was heavy sleet and 1.5C above Penicuik at 7.30am. They stole it!!

Hallelujah! 4C, dry, bright and calm. Overnight snow for all of the Scottish ski centres. Snow remains in the forecast for the ski centres up to Tuesday. Small steps.....

ECM OP this morning was a bit out of kilter with the ensemble: There's still a trend for a rise in pressure towards the last third of the month. Zonal winds forecast to fall back, and AO trending back down from strongly positive: Hopefully the raging zonality will calm as we head towards the end of the month.

How delightful that the squall line was the same shape as the A911. Horrid drive home from West Lothian just now. Crash on the M90. Almost zero visibility, and stretches of road were flooding that I've never seen flood before. Oh, and 11.8C the max up here today, making it the warmest January day I've recorded in the decade I've lived up here.

More amplification on the 18z up towards Scandi, can the high build and more importantly can we get an undercut? Lots of cold air to our NE waiting to pounce...

About time one of these cold blue control runs came off.

Bank it I'd take this on Sunday! And still teasing with a fantasy 2cm tomorrow!

Much calmer today. Current temp 2.6c which is vastly preferable to the double figure nonsense we've had over the last few days. The sky is clearing and the ferry is just pulling away from the pier. It didn't run on Monday morning either, so odd will be really p1ssed off that they'll be going to school today. Aaaaw, wee shame! Been a while since I've seen clear skies but I'm not kidding myself as there's more crap weather to come. Best make the most of this calm period and take a turn around the garden to see what rubbish has blown in.

Struggling with the complete lack of sunlight here now.

1 day blank, 1 for 2020, 12% Solar flux 72 Thermosphere: 2.81

What a strange day temperature wise, when I got home from work the temp on the car showed 10deg, inside the garage the termometer showed 10deg, the road surface temp was 10deg and the cloud temp was also 10deg...I've never seen such consistant temperatures inside and outside before. All this weird weather...I've a feeling we are going to be in for one hell of a pasting when the cold arrives.

Evening all. I only have a few words to say today. Don't be too worried about what each run shows if it's cold and snow your after like me. The models are looking drastic for that. But I always say in weather and especially model watching it can and will change. Maybe not tomorrows 00z gfs or even the ECM 12z tomorrow evening for example. Be patient and eventually and hopefully us coldies will get our wish. Before I go I would say I have massive respect for the posters in here. Some excellent information given at times.

Started to get very windy here again just before 9pm we had some gusts just under 60mph for at least 45 minutes the wind has dropped a bit now but still some big gusts every few minutes and I just found out a few short moments ago a few miles away from me the road has been closed because the power lines have blown over onto the road.

Pretty amazing, any models showing cold should not be taken seriously!! But if they are showing mild.. Then it's bound to be right! Had to have a little laugh regarding those EC 46 weeklies as well, 5 weeks of mild.... This time last year, they were showing 5 weeks of cold!! Then you read the Exeter update who just about mention every weather type going for the next few weeks, and you kind of draw to the conclusion off.... Does anybody actually know! Some deep FI cold building out East on some of those 12z ensembles... Let the cold build and the snow will follow..

A good point, well made S4L

You don’t see charts of this +U wind intensity very often. Thankfully. Lets just hope it’s a case of “The stronger they are...”

Feel free to do it yourself Len. I appreciated Matt's post myself