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Pretty amazing, any models showing cold should not be taken seriously!! But if they are showing mild.. Then it's bound to be right! Had to have a little laugh regarding those EC 46 weeklies as well, 5 weeks of mild.... This time last year, they were showing 5 weeks of cold!! Then you read the Exeter update who just about mention every weather type going for the next few weeks, and you kind of draw to the conclusion off.... Does anybody actually know! Some deep FI cold building out East on some of those 12z ensembles... Let the cold build and the snow will follow..

Weather wise, that was my second worst offshore experience since 1987. A similar storm in 1993 caused the mooring anchors of the Safe Supporter to snap in massive seas. The flotel didnt have means of propulsion so we were adrift and out of control. We passed dangerously close to the Lonond platform but thankfully didnt collide. Evacuation wasn't an option as the weather was to bad for the coastguard helicopters Hours later a vessel managed to get a tow line in place and the biggest helicopter evacuation in north sea history got underway. Horrendous.

Ah well, here we go! Had a wee puff of 50mph just after 6 this morning, and as I was making a cuppa and feeding kitties the power went off for about 10 seconds. Currently charging batteries for lanterns, have plenty coal, wood etc so should be ok. It's to get worse later on, so I'll just coorie in by the fire for the day. See you on the other side!

Definitely a change in fortunes for the Scottish ski centres. Over a foot of snow from today until Sunday for Nevis and Glencoe. Half a foot for Cairngorm and Glenshee. The centres desperately need snow to avoid a repeat of last years disastrous season. Current conditions upper mountain Cairngorm.

Well, what do we have here, then; an intense anticyclone in entirely the wrong place? Though one can't rule out a few stonkers within the ensembles. Obviously! But, lest we forget, T+384 weather charts are only a little more reliable than the Trump Administration's mail service!

Incredible video, never seen anything like it.... Would have been changes of underpants galore sitting through that

No consistent signal of any major pattern change. GFS after D10 indicating the tPV on the move across to the other side of the NH. The mean: 0z mean D8+ This suggests that the flow of lower height pushed further north so we should see heights rise over the UK sector. The 06z continues with this theme: D1D14> The tPV remains dominant and even the oscillating Pacific High cannot penetrate that voracity. Pretty ordinary for the next 10-12 days for us southerners, though mountain goats and Scotland could see something more seasonal at times, in the alternating PM zonal flow. Possible colder highs if this pattern persists at the end of FI. Looking at the cold upper air, a great profile in late FI: Cold spilling to mid-lats and potential for the UK to share in something if things click and nice to see Europe getting some much needed cold. It is all there for a cold spell if we can get some forcing or good HP cell placement. February could be special for cold for some regions.

That’s the next window nick though it does seem likely to be one of those ones you see in a medieval castle rather than the type on grand designs .......

For those that like their weather extreme. 25 years ago I was working offshore on the Brent Bravo. Being contractor trash, we were living on the Polyconfidence flotel. Mad storm kicked up and was filmed by a guy on Brent Bravo. Absolute chaos when a 100 foot wave hit. At that point, I thought it was game over.

Feel free to do it yourself Len. I appreciated Matt's post myself

some ideas to a change

Presumably because they have the developing frontal wave as quite an intense feature as it tracks north east

The pattern is of course locked in, and has been since early Dec. While the profile remains like this to the North west it will be a long road to cold.

Disgusting weather. Going to be breezy this afternoon here in Edinburgh.... Looking ahead, is Sunday the first bringing of snow to the masses?

The system for tomorrow night Thursday is still varying a little in intensity and exact positioning especially as the Gem really deepens it but i feel its overdoing this system. I think that the Icon has the best handle on this low and although the track is similar the intensity is much less. On the northern edge of this low there's a possibility of some mostly hill snow this track would take this risk across northern England, perhaps into southern Scotland later tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Outbreaks of quite heavy rain likely to develop through tomorrow evening into the night for central, southern and western areas giving 10-20mm fairly widely, strong winds perhaps gales in exposure accompanying the rain across England and Wales. Looking a little ahead to the weekend it's looking very unsettled particularly for Scotland with the likelihood of further persistent rainfall for Western Scotland for much of Friday night into Saturday this extending into northern England and northern Ireland at times accompanied by some very strong winds in these areas perhaps gusting 60-70mph in a few places, the weather front responsible eventually begins to make its way southeastwards across more of the UK this perhaps forming a wave depression which may delay the clearance of the rain and enhance wind gusts for a time during Saturday for many especially across the pennines behind this for Sunday wintry showers likely for Scotland. A look at the jet stream for this weekend.. Rainfall and synoptic pressure pattern.. Wind gusts Early next week looks very unsettled for the uk.. Jetstream for Monday.. A powerful jetstream just to the east of newfoundland and moving into the north Atlantic will aid in rapid cyclogeneses such as with this low for Monday.. bringing potentially a stormy spell to all early next week along with more persistent rain but as its a very mobile pattern there will be drier and brighter days especially for central and southern areas. Towards day 10 If we put the Ecmwf, Gem and Gfs average output together.. Likely to remain mostly mild and unsettled.

A touch draughty... and seems to be slightly damp too.

Worth looking at the upper air temperature forecasts, ECM showing quite a chilly atlantic flow for northern half of UK at least with sub 528 dam air at times, and signs the jet taking a more southerly path - so I wouldn't describe the outlook as especially mild for the northern half of the UK at least - limited long drawn SW airstream. GFS keen on ridge development and amplification of the euro high - far reaches of model timescale.

Yep, sPV gets increasingly stretched through the 00z op From this ... ... to this signs that the sPV reaching its peak of strength wrt to zonal winds around mid Jan before winds decline in strength according to GEFS, though I guess this is within climo norm of it weakening second half of winter Remains to be seen if this will be just a minor warming or start of a major warming.

@Hairy Celt surprisingly dry here this morning. how long that will last who knows. all doom and gloom over in the mad house still this morning. Uncle Barty is coming to end winter, folk signing out till next winter. same time next year lads.

A mid-Winter mobile Atlantic pattern in all it's glory--- UK charts at t72hrs A deeply cold vortex feeding a strong jet -a breeding ground for low after low running across the Atlantic.Our resident Azores high ridging extending heights towards mainland Europe.Thus keeping the UK in a west or south westerly flow with just brief flirtations of polar maritime air. Nothing much to add to what others have just to say that i doubt we could get a much more positive nao/ao pattern than currently modeled over the next couple of weeks. I can appreciate this is thoroughly frustrating period of model outputs for cold and snow lovers as January ticks away.

Rain finally stopped and a wee bit calmer now and still very mild. More rubbish weather to come at the weekend. Winter, where are you? Longing for clear skies and frosty days.

I understand why you might like to regularly post cherry-picked perturbations, but inexperienced lurkers here may not qute understand that you can ALWAYS find whatever you want somewhere amongst the perturbations. Instead of cherry-picking only what you wish for, why not try random-selection, or offset your choice-morsels with the "worst perturbations"?

Its difficult viewing at the moment. GFS/EC are classic +NAO with most likely a very +AO in tandem. I'm reading a few tweets suggestive of a SSW in Feb, possibly late Feb, which is as useful as giving a bald man a comb as far as i'm concerned but maybe others would feel differently.. Still hoping for a change, even a mirage at day 10, such is the boringness of it..

There was a much better attempt at a Scandi High on the ECM ensembles this morning: On cluster 1, much better concentration of height anomalies over Scandinavia, and no height anomalies over Europe (you'd prefer negative anomalies to be sure it wasn't showing a sceuro high). On studying the individual ensembles, not many genuine Scandi highs are shown, with a clustering of runs with high pressure close to the north sea - a selection of Scandi highs, Sceuro highs, UK highs, even a few to the north of the UK - and, I think for the first time, a little cluster within the larger cluster or runs that bring a cold pool through central Europe towards the UK. Something like cluster 3 still the favourite, in truth, but more movement towards cluster 1 this morning, certainly. Regardless of position, a very strong high on most runs, notably.

The Greeks love a UK high

Got the soup pot bubbling away. Lighting the fire soon, got knitting and books to hand, torches too. Cleaned, trimmed wick and filled oil lamps. Nothing else I can do. Bring it! ?️?️

Central belt (east central anyway) appears to have escaped the worst for now? Slight wind is all. 10.6c/SSW/10mph

Unfortunately, ever since the Euro 4 precipitation graphics changed, they are overdoing the wintry precipitation. You can easily see it in the above images as it shows snow falling even over the sea despite the not particularly cold uppers. I don't know why they had to mess it up as up to last winter i found it quite reliable regarding the type of precipitation.

Looking like that @Dennis. Late January is the next potential opportunity. I've also got a horrible feeling that we're going to see another slow trickle down final warming like last year and have a terrible -NAO late spring spring and summer again. That's a long way in the distance, but will probably be here before we know it.

More wind in my pants after a curry... that was rubbish. storm my weeble. and to make matters worse my sleet has been moved back for thursday morning. now only 2 hours.. i give up i really do. may just pop into the mad house and call time on this dreadful winter.

Stormy old day, bad enough to shred one of the plastic greenhouses Strongest winds accompanied by short bursts of intense rain but overall surprisingly dry today. Incredibly mild once again, highest temperature seen was 14c when driving through Alford at 19:30 this evening. And why do people never tie down trampolines when windy weather is forecast - check video in this bbc news article!

That was pretty intense earlier! I almost got sucked off the pavement into the Firth of Clyde just down the road from me at McInroy’s point ferry terminal. Wind direction shifted to WSW/W and big gusts came through. (Pretty windy all day) I love how we are all weather geeks and quite a few of us got caught out in it! Winter arrives again on the hills/mountains tomorrow and Thursday - freezing level dropping to 200/300 meters. Should be a decent cover on the Cowal Peninsula hills/mountains just across the water from me - would be nice to see some snow again! (Even if it is on higher ground) Maybe even a chance of a wintry mix on low ground early Thursday morning - we shall see. Have a good night!

Totally drenched getting out of the car in Thurso at about 16:45, felt like there was some joker in the Co-op car park with a hose, aiming it at all-comers. 30 minutes later and all was quiet.

How delightful that the squall line was the same shape as the A911. Horrid drive home from West Lothian just now. Crash on the M90. Almost zero visibility, and stretches of road were flooding that I've never seen flood before. Oh, and 11.8C the max up here today, making it the warmest January day I've recorded in the decade I've lived up here.

Quite a squall not long passed through here. Driving rain and very windy. Now passed and it's all of a sudden dry and calm. Feeling very mild with it. Car reading 12c coming home from work.

I think the cold front just went through here That was WILD for about 20 minutes (I had to go get some milk too) that was fun!

Fine windy start to the day with the ground getting dry enough for dust to blow on the farm track. However the afternoon brought even more wind and heavy rain to lay the dust. It even reached 14c about an hour ago.

GFS 12z anom, this is a good as it gets. 12z ens for London And Edinburgh Lot's of snow chances for Scotland there. Edit...12z

Yesterday was worse here.

Picking up a bit in Lanarkshire over the last hour, top gusts around 50mph so far, similar to yesterday.

Wet and windy day here so far with a top gust of 50mph the same as yesterday. Out in the Western Isles I've been told Benbecula airport reported 74mph and Barra airport 75mph gusts this morning but again yesterday they had gusts similar to that which had no weather warnings out for wind.

Blowing a gale up here, coming right in the front windows, from the south west I think. Heavy drizzle. All ready here too mistyQ for possible powercuts.

If anyone uses oil for their central heating, Scottish Fuels have a promotion running. €30 off orders January- April. Quote Code WIN30 Might be handy should a cold snap appear. Currently 12C here with strong SW winds. Had to stick the bins in the garage as they were starting to move around. Peak winds are forecast around 2pm with 50mph gusts.

Heavy snow forecast for Alford Thursday morning. Looks like you're getting an upgrade on the sleet.

Away from the cold hunt... It might be interesting to monitor Dublin's temperature today. Several models show an impressive fohen effect, and the AROME even gets it up to the 18/19C category by 1pm. No idea what the January record is there? 14Cs also looking likely for favoured parts of the north, too.

Bit of a breeze out this morning.

Yes, to be honest i cannot see one of those priceless stained glass ones in the best churches until February.

Turns out fantasy nonsense forecasts are all the rage in 2020 Even the Met want to join in - although clearly playing it safe

Upgrade alert... 5 hours of sleet now. oh boy im so nervous will it sleet in my back yard? i hope its not to marginal. best check me wet baws temps and all that.

Current feeling are reminding me very much of winter 07-08 which had come on the back of a very mild snowless winter in 06-07 just like last year and a run of largely mild winters beforehand going back to 00-01 not quite same league of mildness as 13-14 and 15-16 mind. Indeed up to that juncture it had been a very long 11 years since any lengthy cold snowy spell a la dec 96 - Jan 96. What then happened we had 08-09.. not saying this will happen next winter.. but for those bemoaning how our winters seem destined for no cold or snow look at the change in fortune then.. also that winter was just after solar minimum.. alas interesting to note the cold Easter and early April snow in 2008.. all that bottled up cold eventually spilled out . For cold snow lovers let's hope if this winter pans out like rest of 08 the cold comes at least a month earlier optimum time for potent arctic air and it would be very potent this year. This is not a forecast more just a post to get some balance in what is fast becoming a thread full of loss of perspective.