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There's a lot about MJO that needs unpicking. In the first place Eric Webb would argue strongly that MJO RMM plots only pick up about 25% of the convection signal. Much else can be going on that OLR plots pick out. Secondly the usual MJO plots presume that the convection signal is a moving one. In other words when we are in phase 7 we are still experiencing lag effects of phases 4/5/6. So when we get the duration of the standing wave forcing from the Indian Ocean that overrides the RMM plots and creates a very confused signal we are not witnessing the usual movement of the signal, and while we stand still in phases 4 and 5 (which has been the product of the IO standing wave) we aren’t getting the usual lag effects through 1/2/3 and that standing wave clouds the truth of some of the progression towards the maritimes. I think some of the optimism that was floating around 2 weeks ago was centred on the assumption that NWP would be struggling to read this signal effectively, and that convective forcing was still occurring despite the standing IO wave. Indeed this must be correct, because we now have an AAM spike as large as any in months, and this should assist in depositing momentum into the sub tropical jet and thereby encourage high lat blocks via wave breaking. However my own take on this now is that the confusion caused to the usual convection impacts by the long standing +IOD has allowed the vortex to recover and consolidate its climatological preference after a start to the season which had it on the edge. NWP seasonal interpretations must have effectively picked this up after all. And now that the vortex is firmly in place we will need a substantial spike to upset it. This is still possible. The recent GLAAM spike from a confused context proves it. And 2018 showed us that unpredictable subtleties to the tropospheric pattern can have significant short term immediate impacts. I notice from a paper published today that the 2018 SSW created the most extreme European surface temperature response of any SSW since 1979 - and in our modern climate these kinds of “freak” events at both ends of the warm/cold spectrum seem likely to increase....so never lose the faith entirely. But overall sensible money would see cold opportunity in the first fortnight of February as the only realistic hope now, and this will depend on the dice rolling cold in terms of the next Pacific wave, decline of the IO driver, positive impacts of emerging eQBO etc etc. In other words - if we are holding a dice we need to roll a 6.

Must be missing data.

The way end of week 2 EPS and GFS look, wave 2 bottom up splits could be in play.

Happy New Year folks. Enjoyed a walk along the coastal path from Pittenweem to Crail and back yesterday to break in the New Year, before steak pie and a dram or two. It was breezy and chilly feeling. Milder but still breezy this morning at 10c/7c.

Whilst I understand WHY some are effectively writing off January, such a stance is of course utter nonsense. Sure there probably is an increased chance of it being a poor January, when compared to the average January the 2nd starting point, but as per usual it’s as much driven by people’s own negativity and frustration as it is the actual weather chart output. Certain people have gone further still, writing off hope of any positive effects from the stratosphere and the entire winter itself! Good grief, this forum at times... Anyway, ECM dangles the carrot tonight. As has already been mentioned, not totally on its own either with a few GEFS hinting at such a scenario. A few GEFS members and the ECM Op Day10 hardly an inspiring line up of advocates but in this situation we are not going to get a sudden cold spell emerge out of nowhere for 5 days time, but this looks a feasible way out of this dross to me as we get to mid month. Mid Lat High is a reasonable response, if we could squeeze something a few degrees higher, mores the better.

After a nice sunrise and a bright early morning, the weather has defaulted to grey stratus and dampness again. The ground underfoot is very wet and soggy, and I’m still feeling crap. Apparently, Jess (doggie) trotted down the track and first-footed the part-time neighbours yesterday, on her own initiative I would add, but dragged in four, feet-full of mud onto their carpets in doing so. She did receive a custard cream though for her effort, so I’m told.

Bottom up is troposphere led, not stratosphere. Back to the dance and who leads who. GP is referring to the signal for second half of January which sees equatorial convection return to the western Pacific and the GEFS punt for a Scandy/Euro block a bit like late November combined with a strong North Pacific ridge. I don’t have access to 14 day EPS so assume his data shows a similar wave 2 pinch. This is the best case scenario we have to hope grows wings. It has always been on the table as an option and the hope is that it could create a split flow in the Atlantic with the southerly arm helping enhance a block over Scandy with easterly flow underneath. The current spike in GLAAM provides a supportive momentum context in the medium term. Fingers crossed.

Seems like you’ve tried to fight the machine HC... never goes down well I remember the days when we could have a general chat in here and we also had the politics thread(s), it’s a shame they’ve smothered all of that. And aye, weather is also pure pish. Nothing to add

Mid January upping the odds of a mid-latitude block either over the UK or further east - not an instant route to cold but could be a building block

Wet and grey here, went for a stomp around the trails and the rain did have a sleety feel/look but no idea of current temperature or if it was sleet (or just wishful thinking). I can recommend pottery for anyone looking for a non weather related hobby. If you're good at it you can make some nice stuff and if you're bad you can at least have a good laugh at your masterpieces.

Another mild start to the day. 8C with a brisk SW wind. At least the sunrise was half decent.

A couple more pictures of snow, just to remind you of what it looks like... That's the last now though, as after a very bright a d sunny drive yesterday (such a contrast to the outward trip) were parked up on the outskirts of a cold and misty Baden-Baden. Time for a look around this morning before we need to head closer to Calais. Ensemble spread on GFS at least suggests very little certainty looking forward for Scotland weather wise, although nothing particularly jaw dropping within the spread either. Patience is going to be the key, and if that doesn't work then celebration of a lower winter heating bill may be the only consolation.

Not really come out the blue CC Scandi blocking of sorts been advertised in GEFS members in recent days perhaps small in number but there. Also quite striking signal in EC clusters so you’re taking a load of a rubbish quite frankly. No one said we are going to jump into Narnia but building blocks and all that there is some promise.

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

Those CPC charts tie in with the extended 12z EPS mean suggesting perhaps some cross polar pinch on the tPV from both the EPO ridge extending north towards the pole and Scandi ridge doing likewise from the other side. This cross polar ridging, albeit not a strong signal yet, may push the tPV lobes further south over N America and N Atlantic. signs of the strongly positive AO relaxing to more neutral values too in the ens toward mid-month NAO going same way too Long road to recovery of some weather resembling winter rather than autumn, but a few tentative signs appearing ... for now

ECM day ten....HURRAH!!!! gem not bad either and like i have been saying the last few days,the cfs has been showing a Scandi high.

Gee willickers, the 12Z is exciting! Aaaargh!

A few decent NH profiles in FI. Still all on schedule for a 1947 type spell over similar dates

Rather nice I would imagine with the surface high to the south east and some southerly zephyrs

Don't mention the climate. Tell you what though, retraining as a flood defence engineer might come in handy. Also becoming self-sufficient in essential food and electricity will be good for when the merde hits the rotating air circulator.

Exceptional Bush fires in Australia unprecedented levels never seen before exceptional warmth around the world this year never seen before top to bottom, uk winter is dead for me i have moved on to spring mode. Positive IOD Negative AAO Could be a big driver of are weather NH.

Milder day in theory at a max of 6c but the brisk wind made it feel anything but, distinctly baltic feeling... Dry though and long spells of hazy sunshine. Plenty people enjoying a bracing walk around Castle Fraser, grass definitely got that lush spring look to it; its been a strange winter so far.

Ian F mentioned the clusters show a broadly S/SE flow out at 384 , the CFS has this directional flow and look where that high is. You never know, next few runs may start throwing lots of peachy FIs in the mix !!

Yes the usual suspects writing off January or the whole winter for that matter but as you more to do with negative and jaundiced outlooks than anything meteorological. We just have to wait and weather and patterns do change. Even when the vortex is wound up over pole.

A few eps members throw up scandi highs but just as many create sceuro ones .... work in progress but does have some gefs support and it was only yesterday that fi gfs ops were messing with this evolution

Temperature has been edging slowly upwards all day here. Currently 9.3C and still rising. Please make it stop!

Happy New Year Everyone. The weather here has been mostly cloudy, dull with temperatures staying on the mild side but it did get down to 0.0c on New Years Eve.

I am wondering with all the background signals and models showing nothing else but zonality for foreseeable future, how come CFS has the ability of throwing 1987 scenarios in 2 weeks time. What is wrong with this model? I see very little point in viewing this long range product with it jumping from one extreme to another with each new output. Other long range models are prone to swings sometimes,but CFS is just useless.

Wakes up looks at models .....goes back to sleep........wake me up last week of Jan

Happy New Year everyone - new decade, new futures perhaps. Plenty to be fairly gloomy about at the moment. Horrible ECM op in the semi reliable and EPS at 240 not looking much better. Notice the NE US ridge helping create a very flat and relatively mild jet into the North Atlantic with little opportunity for meridionality. The only positive to that context might be less tendency for vigorous Atlantic lows, but it isn’t conducive to the kind of wave break we need for a higher latitude block. And NH snow cover now at an all time modern recorded era low And all this in the context of the biggest spike in AAM of the last few months. So what’s happened? First of all it is worth countering the negatives with a degree of positivity. The blocked pattern that was expected around now has appeared - it just hasn’t managed to get sufficient amplitude to push the block higher. And it is worth following this up by saying that an unsettled first half of January was also on the cards given broad scale reality of the ebb and flow of the Pacific signal. So developments sit within the expected envelope even if they are at the disappointing end of what is/was possible. However what has happened that is definitely not good is that the vortex has recovered much more effectively than was perhaps expected might happen 3 weeks ago, and slightly above average stratospheric westerlies have coupled to the troposphere more strongly than was hoped. As the AO increases and tropospheric westerlies engage dynamically it makes it less easy for waves originating from the equator to impact at higher latitudes. I read a really good analogy in another place - referring to the vortex giving the wave pattern a “buzz cut” - says it pretty much as it is! With one driver (the vortex) in control above and beyond the others at present it therefore needs either a substantial increase in the influence of another driver, or a decline in the dominance of the vortex. In the next fortnight this looks unlikely. Beyond that 2 possibilities - renewed Pacific signal at high amplitude towards month’s end that can knock the clippers out for the barber’s hands, or vortex stress in the context of some long term precursor patterns that have been broadly positive. A bit of both would be best possible outcome. SSTs are ok, QBO has turned - solar not whipping up jet activity. So right now it’s hard work, but there is a lot to happen before winter turns to spring, and the majority of punters always said this winter was likely to deliver at the back end (if it was going to deliver at all...)

2nd January 1933 2nd January 1978 2nd January 1992 2nd January 2005 2nd January 1985 2nd January 2006 2nd January 2020 Again surely cant be coincidence that the majority show a less than ideal setup on this day with a strong PV?

At least it will be cooler tomorrow as 850 hpa of around -5/-6 moves in (currently 10.4 C here) would rather be in Norway - snowfall next 48 hours Back to clearing more neds oot eh

Ive noticed how folks get all agitated when the models show no cold whatsoever! And when a model finally shows some, the arguments and petty squabbling starts to rear its head... Only in the UK! Take a look at the NH profile.... At 72hrs you can see the picture of a strong man trying to push the vortex apart.... And hey presto by 240hrs, the jobs a good un... This could be the start of something more interesting later down the line..

Is it time for a New Year thread now.....at least we can start off positive...

That is not a striking signal for Scandi blocking. The usual misrepresentation of the outputs in this thread

Well maybe it’s beginning earlier than end of January l.Is the ECM beginning to sniff out the possible dramatic pattern change after tonight’s run. just gone?

There I was fully expecting to see a totally dire ECM and it desperately tries to to throw up the tempter of an easterly

There would still have been loads looking for the breakdown Here is some of the output

discussion of cold spells that didn't materialize, last winters failed easterly, THAT ECM... All get together and find a way to destroy the PV, looks like it wants to try and go the full 12 rounds this winter Though some tantalizing hints from GP.... Dreadful here, heavy rain blustery winds 9 C about as far away from wintry as you can get.

Actually next winter.....is the great winter Jupiter and Saturn will have a very close conjunction this year (should be a spectacular sight come December)...with the closest visual approach .....no less ..... on the day of the winter solstice. To think all these cosmic forces coalescing, coming together..to be unleashed on the Earth...the polar vortex will be vaporised, enormous high pressure will sit over the Arctic of at least 1060mb the northern hemisphere facing its coldest winter for decades, the UK, a winter that will make 1962-63 seem like a day out at the local ice rink. You have been been warned....

We are in huuuuuuge trouble right now if anyone is hoping for any snow or real cold!!!there is not even a glimmer of hope in fi land aswell!this is fast becoming one of the worst winters in terms of lack and snow to date!!reminds me of the darn 90s!!!i think we can write off the next 3 weeks aswell lol!!

Yes, its usually my favourite time of the year for model watching but its got to the stage were i just quickly scan through with little enthusiasm ..

Don’t know about climate change but I wish the weather would change. 6.2c moderate breeze yawn ?

According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one. _ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equal errors 2nd to 10th, order of entry determines your ranking) 01 __ 5.8 __ 143.0 __ Timmytour ( 4 ) 02 __ 5.9 ___ 85.0 __ cheeky_monkey ( 5 ) 03 __ 5.9 __ 111.1 __ Stationary Front ( 7 ) 04 __ 5.7 ___ 90.0 __ swfc (30) 05 __ 5.7 __ 115.0 __ Pinball Wizard (38) 06 __ 5.9 __ 101.0 __ selliso (48) 07 __ 5.7 __ 121.0 __ Kentspur (54) 08 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57) 09 __ 5.7 ___ 71.4 __ sawan (96) 10 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ Fozfoster (100) ______________________________________________________ Best combined forecast appears to be Kentspur (7th, 1st = 8 rank points) Next would be Pinball Wizard (5th, 6th = 11 rank points)

Looks more like something from late spring... Zonal winds went above average just before mid December, and will stay that way out until the middle of January too. Don't expect any fireworks until the last 10/14 days of this month, if we see anything at all. Until then, enjoy the mildness?

ECM is dire, EURO HP looks relentless. Prob one of those times to have a break from model watching for a week - as if people actually do that!!

Politics, sex and violence are areas to be wary of. So say all you like about the drizzle and all is well. I've not tried saying anything about football recently so it's hard to say what the score is here. WTF is winter hiding?

Happy new year folks, all the best for this year! I had a nice walk around the University of Glasgow the other day. ¹

Happy new year everyone I would just like to wish all the netweather members and staff/moderators the best for 2020 what ever you do,the models are looking a bit grim at the moment aren't they but there is nothing we can do to change that so we will have to sit tight for a bit peeps and see what happens there is a little bit of interest/crumb of comfort as in terms of the gefs ens for around the 8th/9th and i mentioned this a couple of days ago with more members dipping down to -5 or just below today v's 29th we will have to wait and see if this gains anymore traction in future runs also i have been banging on about the cfs....yes i know what you think about the cfs but it is still showing the Scandi high this from the 12z now that is a BOOM chart with -20 uppers coming in from the east C U 4 now. Happy new year everyone

No Holiday cheer for cold fans in the model outputs that's for sure with a solid +veAO/NAO picture being shown. No real change In the coming couple of weeks it seems-- more of the same within a broad westerly pattern.The more unsettled conditions further north at first but we are perhaps tending to see these conditions extend further south with time as the high sinks more. UK T120 Gefs T240 Anything remotely wintery looks transient from brief north westerlies behind passing cold fronts.Often the way in this pattern where we rely on the crumbs of short lived polar maritime shots. Anyway thought i would pop in and wish you all a rather belated happy new year with the hope that something more promising appears on the horizon before too long.