Leaderboard

Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon change...anyway, I will keep an eye on the models and merry Christmas to everyone.

We all wish your dad a speedy recovery from all of us weather geeks on Netweather.tv

Hi Gang, last nights GFS certainly put me to sleep with lovely dreams of Arctic mayhem, and snow by the bucket. Todays runs ,well i am only looking at the most out to 168 hrs ,as i expect plenty of twists as there is a lot going on as i expect a major change to the northern hemisphere pattern come new year ,yes new year gang .not only can i feel it in my water but the way the charts are changing tells me something is LURKING , my fridge magnet of Michael fish fell off overnight , the last time this happened the beast turned up ,cheers gang STEllas on me .

Differences opening up with model forecasts of MJO progression. ECM staying in the neutral zone whilst GEFS and JMA showing progression from Phase 6 into Phase 7. ECM GEFS JMA Phase 7 is supportive of high latitude blocking and also vertical Rossby Wave propagation into the stratosphere to disturb the SPV: "It is clear that phases 7 and 8 are preferred during the 12 days preceding SSW" Source: Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden-Julian Oscillation Are the GEFS members starting to react out at Day 10? MJO Phase 6 and 7 Composites (rotated to match GEFS orientation below): Ph 6 Ph 7 GEFS perturbations:

@JON SNOW best wishes to your dad.

GFS heading towards UKMO at 120... nice flow of NE winds sinking SW west of Scandi & the atlantic low has more disruption heading ESE over the UK..

Chin up folks... It wills soon be turkey and booze time. There is still some interest in the 6z ens, all be it further down the line. These cold charts are especially for my old posting buddy Karl... Aka Jon Snow... I have pmd you mate... Best wishes from me and all my family in your difficult times.. Hopefully some drier conditions for Xmas, perhaps some frost... Beyond that, anything goes.... Onwards and upwards...

Who cares? We've entered a new age where the weather completely ignores these MJO/solar cycle etc background signals and just continues its endless Atlantic low/permanent southwest euro high pressure onslaught.

Latest extended eps suite with the Atlantic ridge closer to us than the previous run ..... that would have made the latter stages of the 00z gfs op plausible......new one is a stretch at best ..... I don’t have any faith in what’s being chucked out at the moment by the week 2 nwp ........

Well one driver could well be the MJO at that range, favourable phases for northern blocking are 7-8-1, and GEFS has us headed that way: ECM more coy, but it is a trend to watch: For newbies, the MJO is a predictable pattern of tropical convection that moves through various locations as per the diagrams above, and can influence the wave pattern in our neck of the woods down the line.

So sorry to hear this Karl and i hope that he will get well soon,give him my kind regards as for the models,a bit of a disappointment today but that's the nature of this roller-coaster and anything can happen because the models are still all over the place with fl starting as short as 96 hrs as for the warming in the strat,there is an uptick showing again at 30/10 hpa from the jma graph,lets see if this one has meat on the bones this time.

Hope your dad gets better quickly, karl.

Looks fab, after the wet and cold of last couple of months, truly. I'd rather have the above than 7c and rain. No snow and cold? Then next best is weather showing in that chart.

Well, looking at this, rather than "Let's get the cold in and the snow will follow", I think we are at "Let's get the warmth in then the gardening will follow"...Seems fair set to continue on the basis of recent models..

I've just made a post on this in the 'Models, Teleconnections and Nowcasting' thread here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92865-early-winter-models-teleconnections-and-nowcasting/?do=findComment&comment=4113363

Yes. You cant polish a turd but truly shocking outputs from a cold perspective. Let's hope 2nd half of winter delivers then spring lol.

Oh my gawd... Post-Christmas 'heatwave' is still on. Surely we're looking at 15c or 16c in the sheltered NE of Scotland and 13cs and 14cs more widely

...and illustrating perfectly the difficulty NWP is having at present unravelling the upstream forcings going on. Far bigger brains than mine are interpreting the current MJO COD transition as a model best fit to a wide range of convection signals across the pacific equator that makes normal phase forecasting near impossible. And into this we need to factor the truth of a transitioning QBO, weakening +IOD event plus usual climatology for December. How many winter cold scenarios kicked off before Xmas over the years if we take out 2010? Faint hopes of a resilient block I think are becoming fainter - wise money would be on the block slowly becoming flattened as we move into January. A return probably to a more NW air flow and then eyes on the next opportunity for proper cold....in the second half of January.

Hi swfc, models very volatile to change at the moment,so would view longer term charts with a pinch of salt. Even charts at 120t vary with the positioning of the Boxing Day Low . However, seems not much prospect for cold to tap into but history shows how quickly things can flip from mild to cold and usually not forecast that far in advance. I remain hopeful for change for much drier conditions between Christmas and New Year. That forecast Bartlet can retrogress NW which would be much better especially for us in the Eastern Alps who are suffering weeks on end of Fohn conditions. So overall , not surprised to see big changes in the out -puts over the coming few days. C

Good postings above, people need to keep an eye on these developments, MJO phasing hasn;t been conducive so far this season for high latt blocking, but if we are into phase 6 and then 7, a quick shift of heights advecting west would be line of travel and a deep longwave trough to our NE setting up, cold embedded air.

Last night I said I would be looking at UKMO first this morning before all other models, expecting it to not show the shortwave feature to our west, as it looked the least likely to do this - what has happened instead is that it is showing it more of a feature than all others.. I am not sure what to make of it, as it doesn't at all tie in with the Met office forecast. I'm rather perplexed and feel the models are really struggling at present, with the reliable timescale a very short 96 hrs tops. Christmas Day currently looks like being mostly dry and calm for all at least. Boxing Day - not sure. Longer term - ECM and GFS continue to show heights quickly sinking into Europe ushering in a long drawn SW feed, however, the way the high is tilted, developments to our North and the position of the jet which looks amplified, the high looks primed to quickly advect back west and much colder air drawn into the trough to our NE, a dig of very cold uppers, meaning we could easily switch from a very shortlived very mild spell, to a much colder cyclonic spell. I'm going to take a week off model watching next week, hoping things by end of tomorrow at least will become clearer for how the post christmas period might pan out.. but I doubt it.Fully expecting today to be a very topsy turvy one model wise, lots of options being shown, and might be wise not to look at the models today and come back tomorrow.

Its so sad for us coldies wib.. Nothing ever seems to go our way. EC mean is truly horrendous this morning.. The lows spinning across the Atlantic are just relentless.

What a complete and utter waste of time the 18z is. Never right is it

Morning- Im up & off doing some work this morning & ive got up with a positive vibe. The 18z + MEAN + ICON / JMA & 18z ECM were all much better in a swing towards cold however we need to continue that process today - With such a relative short window here a full swing to cold will unlikely then swing back to mild as the transition is at 96-120. Thanks

Heres the swing shown in the numbers counting down from a 2 day window 156-204 12z then 150 -198 18z

I commented earlier today on the Cold Air Advection on the eastern flank of the building euro high, a deep long wave trough developing through Scandi, and cold pool, this forcing therefore causes the high to quickly ignite west and retrogress through mid atlantic - barely a 48hr SW feed shot, and thereafter something much colder and cyclonic from the NW. Both ECM and GFS are showing this scenario as we approach new year. Many are focusing on christmas right now, quite rightly, but there are firm building blocks developing that are not conducive to a locked in SW mild fest. Back to the shorter term, this feature being shown for Boxing Day causing lots of headaches, its still there,but at this range far from clear how deep it will be and where it will develop. Thankfully the models are still showing a drier picture for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, quite chilly and perhaps a touch of frost, so seasonal at least, without anything especially cold or snowy, I will take that over a wet soaking or blast from gales.

Yes just saw this & if you look at 144 chart plenty of cold to tap just to the North...

Evening All If I had just logged in & only seen the UKMO tonight I would have said things hung in the balance - Also 168 UkMO shows a potential snow event for the North Lets see what model is correct UKMO / GFS ( & 18z ICON ) neg tilted ridge > Good ( or at least better ) ECM pos tilted poor ridge > My eggs always in the UKMO basket.

GEM T144 verifying above UKMO 12z T144: GEM is labelled CMC on that. Yes I know it is a statistical anomaly at one point in time and isn't borne out generally, but just replying to your sceptical post, the GEM is a decent model these days and has had an upgrade in resolution to join what is now the big 4.

Interesting stuff. Here was the Netweather radar image around the time of the reports

No it doesn't How predictable that pandemonium has returned Lets just see where the runs go over the next few days but I know for certain I wouldn't be putting my money on any outcome at the minute given the uncertainty, still very much all to play for IMO.

Well at least there's some cold air getting into Eastern Europe.... Meanwhile, back at the ranch' we've got a lovely sub tropical splurge..

Someone caught it crossing the M25! Those bits of debris flying around are fence panels and sheds

A glorious morning here, blue sky sunshine very pleasant indeed, its all doom and gloom in the nut house this morning after last nights joy from the pub run. Decembers finished no snaw at Christmas. i bet today will be the day that the "lack of balloon data" issue will get brought up again. i still think we will get at least one or maybe two big snaw events before spring comes.

It's the form horse and we'd be foolish to bet against it. Flattening out across the models with only the vaguest glimmer at the end of the ECM. Sadly

Back to looking at crumbs in FI. This truly vile mild and wet dross continues.

It's beginning to look like one of those familiar UK winters where no actual decent cold spell has materialised despite showing up every now and then in Fi in certain models. December is almost done and I don't have any flakes, might have to wait for spring as usual lol

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Apart from a few showers over western Scotland it is a dry start to the day in most places with some fog around but there is a line of rain associated with the occlusion that is steadily making it's way east across Wales and southern England at the moment which should clear the east coast by late morning. At the same time heavy rain associated with the deep low that is tracking quickly east will effect the south west and by 1800 most of Wales and southern England. But the strong winds will be in the southern quadrant of the low over France The persistent rain will clear east this evening but showery stuff will linger along the southern periphery of England and down some western regions. Elsewhere dry with some fog patches The complexity associated with the upper trough pertains on Sunday resulting in a day of sunshine and showers with longer spells of rain in the north west Apart from some showers in the north west Monday will be a dry day but another low to the south west is tracking east and rain from the associated fronts will move across southern and central regions through Monday afternoon and evening The rain will clear to the east so Tuesday a dry day with Showers/rain restricted to the areas effected by the two fronts at either end of the country. A rather cold day but I will give the gfs temps a miss because the warm air in the south is rather dependent on the precise position of the front. But note the subtropical high is starting to ridge in the west And by Wednesday the ridge has moved east to be over the country thus a dry day with some sunshine

Thought it wasn't possible but the 6z GFS is possibly worse in fi

Looks good growing weather on that chart!!!!

Its a highly amplified pattern though, not the hallmarks of a long standing high sat over Europe, look at the cold air advection to the east of the high, a trigger for the high to advect sharply westwards and cold pool to the NE. A short sharp blowtorch, followed by a cold blowtorch.. swings and roundabouts.

The small scale probably isn’t quite sorted yet but larger scale is but ECM and UKMO show why I am sceptical of a calm Xmas AND Boxing Day. I think the transient ridge will be more prominent after Boxing Day and these 2 models advertise the way forward. Deep FI on GFS looks plausible as a set up for early Jan but the way this winter has started...am anticipating a watered down (less cold) version and more wind and lot more rain scenario. The Beeb think a frosty and foggy spell around Xmas Day for a few days before wind and rain move in. The rain moving in this evening for the southern counties.....I don’t think it’ll look pleasant in the morning with flood scenes very likely BFTP

Cant we just turn them all on and off again.? I mean we all know they flip flop when clueless with different output from run to run but this just seems a total mess, a complete mess, not even any variations of a theme. For me it's looking like a continuation of wet and windy.....but that strat warming showing last night will get me through the day! Still...the chase goes on!

The heighths are going into the USA.think Greenland is destroyed under the PV in fisevere gales and wet over UK

Ill have a number 9 please Santa

Perhaps better for a few’s health if they didn’t oscillate between unrestrained euphoria and abject despair.

Is it just me or does this GFS flip remind anyone else of January earlier this year where the models fliped from that easterly like 3-4 days before ? Could this be a flip but in our favour this time Lets Hope so!

The swing to the operational at 144 is about 50% - Worth noting there is CAA into Scandi showing up which wasnt there earlier indicating a better shape

Pandemonium in the morning if UKMO/EC follow GFS 18z...