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Within the context of what I suspect will be a trough dominated early and mid phase to the winter, the extended week 2 - 3 period might offer something of a noteworthy deviation. Easterly wind anomalies starting to show up in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and associated cooling up the subsurface. Same thing happened in August and September (although this time round no where near as strong). That was a precursor to a Nina like phase of weather characterised by falling angular momentum. So a negative tendency to relative angular momentum = retraction of Asian Jet and removal of westerlies from the system. Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 favoured. Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 are remarkably similar to each other. Current extended range modelling in the last 24 hrs has developed this trend: Not a perfect match on the analogue model, and positioning of the North Pacific ridge 20 degrees further east (therefore shift analogue ridge close to UK to the east). What that does highlight is a potentially drier phase with pressure rising to the east / north-east for a period weeks 2 - 3. Wave 2 activity might also uptick on the polar vortex distorting its shape somewhat. Given the last time models went for a North Pacific ridge it was massively overdone, I'd be sceptical of the duration, and mean anomalous trough would be the expectation for Europe as we head into January. Still, something at least to watch in the next 10 days to see how this develops.

Try looking up the word 'developing' Developing polar flow...

Morning all, I still cannot get over what changed the models to drop the first chart scenario shown only 3 days ago . Both GFS and ECM and a lesser so UKMO had the Polar Front diving well south and picked up that rather unusual placed low to provide a threat of snow to the south. Gone now is the real chance of colder snowy weather by the end of next week as the real deep cold air is held much north and the zonal train heads into Blighty. However, could or are the models due for another switch in 3 days time? Going by this weeks sudden flips , possibly on the cards. I think the common feature to draw on these runs is that for the most part, the UK seems to be on the colder side of the Polar Front as it meanders across the North Atlantic. Our team report as being baffled as well but their own longer term model still has height rises to the NE as we head towards Christmas, read what you may into that . C

ECM operational 192 looks great if its a train of wintry showers you like A cheshire gap special!

Plenty of interest in the 12z ensembles this evening.. We have cold shots, potential snow makers and even an all out Estly deep in fi.. Potentially exciting times ahead, or is it just me being like a big kid at Xmas, who still can't wait to open his presents..

Most definitely an improvement from the ECM mean this morning....only a week into December, and already we are on for chase no2.. Probably at least 100 more yet...

Well I for one can see a step back towards it being colder than milder. Small adjustments but they are definitely moving in right direction. UKMO has the system Sunday /Monday stronger and shifted south.....that’ll do for now, that’s sone system to get right....never mind beyond BFTP

Well it's been quite a week model wise. We've gone from blizzard of the century for southern England to bog standard slightly north of West airstream with a rain and gales darn sarf and bit of white for the usual suspects oop north.There's been some bemoaning of the fact that there is little in the way of deep cold to tap into even though for much of the time we will be on the north(cold) side of the jet. Yet the great thing about our climate is that we do not require deep cold uppers of minus 10 to bring extraordinarily deep snow. So once again I will wheel out my old chestnut (freshly polished I might add for this new winter season.) The deepest snow (12-18 inches on low ground and drifting to 30 feet) of my nigh on sixty years here on the south coast fell with uppers of minus 2!!! Enjoy the winter ride guys.

This the best of the lot. Lake effect snow. Followed by a dumping from a slider.

Yes strong standing wave currently in operation, helping fix a trough largely in our vicinity. And for those who prefer their winter relatively mobile and damp there is plenty to be interested in right now : +NAO in place for the most part with insufficient tropical/MJO forcing to retract the Azores high and no significant impacts from the stratosphere yet. But there is plenty to interest those who prefer their winter weather crisp and white if patience can be found - shortly I believe the MJO will begin its next cycle and while I think the IO cold pool will probably take some of the steam out of its progress there will nevertheless be a degree of amplification restored. In addition, once the short term interesting impacts of the +EAMT have pushed through next week and parts of the north and areas at elevation see some of the white stuff, we should see a period of Aleutian low/ Scandy high return....and that means wave 2 pressure on the vortex. This general pattern progress was fairly predictable from a fair distance....but we are creeping ever closer to a period when predictability will fall away. The end of December was never likely to produce sustained or deep cold this year, but snowpers will be looking for signs that the pattern is open to future change once we get towards January and the vortex passes its climatological peak, the MJO has another pass with perhaps a reduced +IO signature, and the QBO gets to its easterly phase. Timings on all of these are tough to get right, and timing will be critical in the end, but we must wait and see how transitions interact. I would still expect to see a greater chance of blocking returning in the final third and I notice signs of this in the long range clusters tonight. In the meantime the stormy Atlantic is in pole position overall, though a torque inspired surprise for some is not out of the question in a week’s time.

Yes Anthony, its applies to day 10 -15 outer range profile charts. They expect the 300mb winter jet to be much further south by this time, so its fairly natural to expect some form of height rises to the NE to develop. The detailed day to day forecast profile is nay impossible that far out of course but you would expect low pressure to dominate still over much of the British Isles buts its positioning would be crucial to what type of weather to expect but at a guess with the jet forecast to be well south of the British Isles, cold PM air mass would be favourite to reside. Whether height rises over Scandinavia develop or not, any forecast charts that far out must be taken with a pinch of salt but its being shown ! C

The general outlook well highlighted by Jordan above. Personally I think the ECM mean is a slight improvement... And most definitely so, compared to the other day! Colder incursions bringing everything bar the kitchen sink.. Sure to be some fancied areas, especially at elevation in for a fair bit of the white stuff..

A decent ICON to start the afternoon * Watch out for the sliding low day 6 *

Some hints through the day so far that the euro heights may not rise much through week 2 and the trough may dig to our south a little more than last few days direction of travel have indicated …….lets see hwere the noon eps are and then tomorrow mornings output to see if merely a pendulum swing which heads back again …..

Sadly I can't see anything like a "cold polar flow" At best just sightly cool and that's putting it lightly

UKMO 144 same as ICON > cold polar flow developing for Election day...

The Models continue to show a cool/cold unsettled N/W PM flow into next week and beyond, With snow over high ground in the North. Some snapshots from the UKV early next week..

And there is the MJO phase 2 pattern

I'm a tad worried by the simultaneous tail-end rises in SLP and temperatures...I'd even fear a possible Bartlett, were it not for the fact that it's all so far out in la la land, as to be academic anyway... Slaps wrist and punches face, for having such perniciously subversive thoughts!

Possible Snow showers for the NE Mon Afternoon-

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean (postage stamps), its unsettled and temperatures are predominantly below average and there are plenty of opportunities for snow, frost and freezing fog...winter is here!!!!❄

It was interesting as it didn't edge away they just fell away. But even I (a coldie) said I wanted to see it at t48 just for comfort .....interestingly though those charts are still 1 week away and a week is a long time in model world especially as pM air is very much the theme still ......although a less cold outlook is somewhat easier to hold onto than a deep cold one. Also interested how the professionals weren't expecting that, be very interesting to hear more thoughts from them C? BFTP

Putting the average output of the Gfs, Ecmwf and Gem together we see its showing a Very unsettled period for the next 7 days atleast which I know many are fully aware now with bouts of heavy rain and very windy perhaps stormy conditions at times particularly atm Sunday night into Monday morning. Still a little uncertainty regarding that but it's likely.. with the winds shown atm strongest for the far west and southwest at first then to more Eastern areas towards Monday morning gales a widespread feature for many parts of England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland. Again Still a little uncertain though. 6am Sunday.. 6am Monday.. Colder showery conditions between low pressure systems next week this wintry for northern parts at times. Just for interest the Dwd Icon really deepened the low to the northwest for tuesday on its midday run. An exceptionally deep low centre of 936mb but now a more "sensible" 944mb still very low ofcourse if that indeed came off. Shows gales for some associated with a potent weather front with heavy rain sweeping through during Tuesday evening/night with that centre drifting southeast in a similar fashion to Sundays low albeit with the centre of pressure rising markedly as it does so. What it showed on its earlier update.. Wind gusts. Note these are at 10 metres. Green =60-70mph yellow = 80mph dark orange/red= 100mph dark red = in excess of 120mph which was shown close to the centre but not now. Earlier update.. This evening.. Wind gusts.. Much weaker but still very strong winds wrapped around this with a squally weather front pushing across England and Wales. But its still 5 days away so don't take these charts for tuesday too literally above in regards to the precise details and depth of that low but It highlights the potential for stormy weather at times next week. So the Ecm, Gfs and Gem output averaged out For next week.. Tuesday.. Wednesday.. Thursday.. Friday.. Saturday.. Very unsettled with the jetstream remaining over and at times just to the south of the uk towards day 10 with snow at times on hills further north perhaps lower levels occasionally. There will be some drier and brighter periods between these systems so not a total washout.

A long way out but UKMO has that slider scenario at 168 - Sliding into cold air in situ over Scotland ( polar air will have filtered in by then ) Something to consider - * Edited *

Here's the Arpege, Icon and the Gfs view on storm Atiyah named by met Eireann for Sunday evening into the night. Arpege.. Arpege shows a period of stormy weather for Western and southwestern parts of England and Wales and for Ireland too with 60-70mph widely and 80mph in a few locations. Elsewhere 40-50mph for central parts for a time during Sunday night. Icon.. Mostly in agreement with Arpege showing stormy conditions for Western and southwestern parts of England and Wales also for Ireland and northern Ireland too perhaps for northeast Scotland too interestingly it shows 60-70mph again for many inland areas perhaps very stormy for the bristol channel and the Irish seas with gusts shown to be in excess of 80mph. 50-60mph for central parts of England for a time. If this is right some disruption and some damage is possible.. Gales shown for north sea coasts on Monday morning. GFS next and its toned down the wind gusts somewhat as it shows more disruption to the flow with small areas of low pressure forming taking lobes of rain southwards which takes the potency out of winds a little but even so around 60mph progged for the West southwest of England and Ireland too with 40-50mph elsewhere for England but seems a bit Conservative. Further ahead we keep the very disturbed theme with very wet and windy weather a frequent visitor.. Gem.. Very unsettled but quite cold especially towards the end of next week with perhaps something more significant in terms of snow but a long way off and subject to change.. Ecmwf.. Somwhat similar to the Gem so wet and very windy but a colder theme with more in the way of wintriness to precipitation especially for the north. GFS.. A slightly milder option with stormy conditions right up towards day 10 with rain and wind the main issues but snow not to be ruled out in colder interludes especially for northern parts. Here's the jet stream again from the Gfs.. A strong jetstream upto day 10 which will aid in rapid cyclogenesis of some systems. Putting them all together.. This shows conditions staying mobile and very unsettled with some colder incursions from the north. A west to then northwesterly theme.

Only two years ago though PM Westerlies brought decent snow even to low levels such as around Glasgow and to many Northern and Western areas at times through December, January and early Feb before being eclipsed a bit by the BFTE in late Feb. So charts like this may bring something to at least some areas even next week.

I still think it's not a normal winter coming up as in big surprises to come. No scientific proof but a gut feeling with some decent signals We've got to have a good one soon imo. I'd defo take that for though.

You would have to say that is a cracking set relative to what expectations are at the moment - some sort of chance of snow from the NW flow and then at least a clustering showing proper blocking potential at the end.

It looks a wild few days as the jet is over us.Strong winds with gusts to gale force are forecasted for places around the UK over the weekend and Tuesday and Thursday from just flicking quickly through the earlier GFS frames. Transient snowfall can't be ruled out as the polar air cuts in behind the cold fronts but most likely as ever over higher levels but you never know with steep lapse rates we could get a brief surprise fall lower down anywhere. A very wild and unsettled week to come though with frequent changes in air mass but never mild for long especially later in the week.

As per the blog entry.. Solving the winter conundrum – Centaurea Weather CENTAUREAWEATHER.COM It’s that time of year again when the energy sector, hedge funds and weather enthusiasts are deluged with long range weather forecasts, the key question – what will the winter hold ? I’ve been given... December thus far playing out as per the expected cyclonic, troughy theme for NW Europe. Can't state enough that this winter is about an absence of any strong drivers. What we're left with is effectively a vacuum, which we know nature abhors so very low confidence when assessing any winter forecast this year. What is undoubtedly evident over the tropics is a strong + Indian Ocean Dipole event. Quite what that equates to for NW Europe is very challenging to assess, although basically it would probably mimic an El Nino event. Not seen enough +ve heights over the Arctic region to have full confidence in this driver although the coming NW flow and jet driving south would be consistent with this. What about the solar minima I hear some of you yell out ? Not convinced this alone is as big a driver as it might be. That stated, the state of the stratospheric polar vortex does seem to be reflecting an inactive sun phase. The problem here is that the QBO interface isn't quite affirmative as it needs to be for an out and out cold winter signal. Put all of that together and I'd hold with my preliminary thoughts on January, whilst having some potential, is unlikely to deliver. To me it has Troughy written all over it, and analogues were notable in their inference that the trough axis would be unfavourable for cold advection to Western Europe. For February the analogue guidance was more encouraging for the trough axis to pull colder air back west, and this would also be consistent with climatology for +IOD / +ENSO events where February is most favoured for cold outbreaks across NW Europe. Could be wrong on all of that of course (nature abhors a vacuum and all that), but right now, I wouldn't change those winter thoughts from when they were first authored in October. Golden trinity for a cold European Winter: Weak to moderate La Nina (with the atmosphere demonstrably coherent with this); low solar (preferably year after minima); east QBO. How many of these are current ? Arguably a la 2009/10, a weak to moderate El Nino would also work but that lack of at least two of these from this year's set up highlights the problem. Possible that the IOD / warm ENSO neutral may just qualify for tropical favourability, and the QBO likely to switch during January also tilts the balance more towards favourable during the latter third of the winter.

Still no change this morning: Stormy at day 10, deep trough dominant: Day 12: Day 15: Not much to get cheery about. Odds of a white Xmas look pretty low at this point with how things are panning out.

Instead of beast from the east.. We could be in for some breast from the west?

The salient points of the ext EPS mean anomaly this morning Alaskan ridge extending into the Arctic towards the amplifying subtropical zone in eastern Europe The tpv northern Canada loosely extended across Greenland to the trough over the UK Strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic Ergo continuing unsettled with temps a tad below average, particularly in the north. This probably reflects the usual caveats vis the day to day variations and in particular the ingress of colder air from the NW/N

Today has been beautiful. This morning was amazing this is my favourite type of weather. I love the cold frosty mornings. I don’t like going for a run in this weather I spend more time ice skating than running. I’m very sad to see is disappear tonight. I was reading another story from our favourite weather newspaper and they have said that we will be having weeks of snow all over Christmas and that they have used the charts from of this site. I wonder if netweather know about this?? It would be nice to have some snow but I would be happy to have it cold again like this morning. From what I can see from the charts it’s going to be more unsettled than snowy which is a shame.

I can't read that without thinking of Yoda No need for anyone to despair. The GFS is good, plenty of amplification. The ensembles are a very mixed bag but then there's so much scatter from as early as T144 that it says to me it's one of those moments when the models aren't sure. This comes through with the ECM which today seems intent on flattening everything. UKMO incl fax seem okay - the fax especially. Ground conditions Sunday through Friday next week look 'grim.' Where it does snow there may be some piling snow in strong winds and elsewhere sleet and some penetrating cold (GFS). I've grown to rather enjoy cold meridional conditions. Give me that any day than a month's dirty high pressure. We're coming into this with a succession of cold months too.

Well well, plenty of FI interest here.

According to the GFS, the Boris Blizzard is bit of a no-go!

Here is a graph of the GFS and GEFS mean T384 forecast zonal wind compared to the actual analysis values, from November 15th onwards - The GFS has forecast higher zonal wind speed, average +9.1 ms. The ensemble mean has forecast lower zonal wind speed, average --4.2 ms. (Obviously a smoother plot as mean of 20 members). Interestingly these biases have been fairly consistent (i.e. above vs below) such that the average of the GFS and ensembles is closer than the two individually. Must be remembered that this zonal wind is a pretty limited 1-dimensional quantity, compared to an areal analysis such as geopotential anomaly correlation - so forecast equal wind speeds which may appear accurate could be achieved from very different geopotential charts. Case in point - Here are the geopotential charts corresponding to the above temperature profiles - The T384 forecast chart may have had the more noticeable warming posted above, zonal wind 28.6 ms, yet the second vortex of the 4th December analysis is more displaced and hence the vortex appears weaker from a zonal wind perspective at 18.1 ms. Not too much should be made of zonal wind or temperature charts in isolation.

Temperatures here were +10 C through the night, absolutely minging temperatures for December the average minimum temperature here for December should be 0.7 C For me it is what direction the flow is from ie next weeks would be a Clyde-Forth streamer being from the W / NW whereas the BFTE was a Forth-Clyde streamer being from the E nothing like a straight forward approach Nah its the river Forth which is best

Looking at the models so far today, as Yoda would say, snow next week it will!!

If we could only get this output in the reliable very snowy setup for some.

Here's the best I got last winter (about 10cm plus) on Feb 2 up at blue bell hill (North Kent) - the worst was 500ft above though settling snow got down to about 200ft. It was also the only time it snowed and settled last winter round here (I think)

GEM is probably the pick of the bunch at day 10

And for me being born in the east end of London the best river is the Thames....if you like filthy muddy water full of old shopping trolleys and empty gin bottles.

As a neutral I would go Clyde-forth purely from an alphabetical perspective and because our weather usually travels west to east. I should also point out the Tay is by far the best river in Scotland

A few 06z ens did sniff out something along them lines.

This mornings multimodel graphs I've made a air pressure one as well, Temperatures sticking to the same trend from yesterday staying around 8c to 9c for next few days with temperatures falling slightly towards the end of next week to around 6c to 7c. The GFS yesterday was showing temps as high as 14c it was clearly an outlier and this morning it's backed down to 8c. Pressure staying around 1015 to 1000mb between Saturday and Tuesday then dropping to about 990mb next Thursday and Friday. Both GEM and NAVGEM look to be outliers from their 00z runs this morning showing big differences early on.

Hi F, I do know they did not have that low on their own charts but more in line of a deep trough. But to drop that scenario shown by the big models took them by surprise. I am due for a call with later this morning and will try and fathom out their thoughts as to the reason why, but quite frankly not sure they will know ! In the meanwhile, our ski- lifts open today under warm sunshine , +10c on the slopes this morning. C

Looks like the EC is picking up the beginning of another warming at the end of the run

According to the gfs over the net couple of days the upstream amplification boosts the jet and the unsettled theme continues