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I am sure that many many on here, and I absolutely include myself in that, do indeed get a buzz from seeing cold charts in the forecasts. No matter how far away. GFS +384, ECM +240, teleconnections, ensembles etc. Us watching for trends, patterns, signals, Trying to second guess cause and effect of every minute change in the atmosphere from run to run. All in a massive 3d world from the top of the stratosphere to the pavements outside our houses. That is all part and parcel of this mad annual winter ritual of ours. Personally, I would just find it incredibly boring if all the charts only went up to 3 or 5 days Most here are plenty long enough in the tooth to know that those faraway charts eye candy charts have many hoops to jump and many hurdles to clear before making it into the more reliable time frame (and even then will most probably go wrong).. But if it ties in with the 'background signals' (no matter how tentatively sometimes ), then yes, absolutely, that's what it's all about! I see no reason why good cheer, hope and optimism should be curtailed in those instances. In the same way nor should the perennial pessimists and pragmitists amongst us, who arrive like clockwork to pour hot water on those hopes and dreams (as long as not trolling of course). Each to their own in life, but for me it's always been all about the chase...

Right everyone get yer annual Netweather Model Output Discussion bingo cards at the ready... 1. Members ramping/dismissing any cold on the horizon. 2. Knocker threatening to leave the thread. 3. Doom mongers and snow mad people arguing over charts/models/long range forecasts that have about a 20% chance of becoming reality. 4. Searching for a breakdown of a cold spell while we are all in one. (Winter special) 5. Declaring a 1947, 1963 or 2010 Winter is on the way. 6. John Holmes steps in as peacemaker. Back to the models/charts...if the latest ECM is on the money it looks as though another below average Autumn month (mean temperature) is on the cards for Scotland.

First winter is over post on November 21st

UKMO 144 my favourite model looking solid tonight especially for Scotland - incoming cold day 5/6 from the NE....

I am quite surprised that my post simply asking why it needed more runs has generated so many responses. A bit like knocker I find the day to day weather and playing around out to 10 days using the 500 mb anomaly charts usually absorbing. Beyond that then I simply read the further outlooks that generate so much excitement at times and so many 'toys out of prams' as some of us call it when/if the promise of huge snowfalls and persistent cold do not materialise. Generally I am happy enough to potter along trying to pick my way through this but it can be a touch tiresome now and then. Can I ask that if a few of us, usually on the model thread all year, wish to post these short term comments, with the once in a while from comment from someone that upsets our cold friends please bear with us as we bear with you. It is after all a weather forum/site available to all shades of opinion.

Well if that's what everyone wants here I don't see a lot of point in anyone who finds this totally boring and pointless posting in this thread. I personally find day to day meteorology interesting enough

ECM mean was several degrees above 0C just the the other day... Now we are seeing close to several degrees below!!!! Ohhhh lalalalal!! Just imagine after all those LRF forecasts of a very mild Wstly December, what it would be like in here, if it completely went the other way!! Xmas could come early this year folks.... Absolutely fab posts all day from you guys...

ECM is the best of the bunch @144!!

Personally I am more interested in day 6 to 9... If you are of a cold/snow persuasion it is nice to see a chance of a seasonal start to Winter...especially after the abysmal December last year. Great to see the thread buzzing like an old fridge...just like in Summer when the hot/sunny charts appeared at day 6 to 9. Have a good night and thanks to every single member in here for a great read today - from all sides of weather preference/unbiased model summaries.

Hi gang ,i have said this before but i realy feel that this Net weather forum and that includes all sub forums are the best on this planet .I love the chase , the comrades , the rampers , winter is looming ,will it snow ,sliders ,channel lows ,polar lows , lake effect snow ,510 Dam ,radar watching ,curtain twitchers ,squirrels popping up with the charts ,oh good bit of fun and interesting. Well we have some very interesting weather brewing up now , latest output suggests plenty more rain , with possibly colder air tucking behind low pressure systems next week .cheers gang ,STEllas all round .

I don’t get it either, sometimes it feels like people get a buzz out of seeing cold charts regardless of whether they actually verify or not. i couldn’t care less what some chart shows in 7-10 days, I want to see white stuff outside!

Morning all, certainly the pick of the day chart is from GEM at day 9. This model shows the best and quickest route for an Arctic invasion into the British Isles as shown by the advancing 528 dam line. The 500m heights and 300mb flow charts also develop a nice Mid- Atlantic Omega shape. Perfect you may ask, but as always never an easy way for direct cold to sweep its way through the whole of the British Isles as highlighted by the bigger main models this morning. Possibly, the UKMO at 144t seems closest to the GEM run at that time ,however, the Greenland heights not as pronounced. Maybe a few more runs to firm up yet but NE Britains at least looks in a better position for some cold and snow by day 10. I will next get an up -date from the team over here tomorrow morning and report back, hopefully with good news for you many cold lovers. C

This is a serious question, why do some of you, usually when a model shows not what you want, do you post,..'more runs needed' ?

This mornings runs remind us that ‘imminent mid winter’ on the nwp can become ‘three bites at the cherry’ within 12 hours ! you really wouldn’t want to call anything for the first week December ........... unless you have no reputation or care !

Seems odd that we have decent cold charts at day5/6 on ec op and yet some seem as interested in the post day 7 charts that simply won’t verify ....... my take on that 12z ec suite is that it needs to dig further south but it isn’t far away from delivering ..... just waiting for knocker to post the 9/14 day ens mean

Stonking Ecm 12z ensemble mean from around day 7 if cold is your thing, especially cold further north with snow likely..the mean is actually better than the operational longer term...fingers crossed there's a taste of winter / the Arctic on the way!!!!!!!❄

Ecm,you beauty... at 144.

Great to see the forum so busy, shame I can't really join in the fun due to posting restrictions but I'm liking the ukmo 12h @ day 6 with the door opening to colder weather from the N / NE in less than a week from now..plenty of cold potential elsewhere too so I have my fingers crossed for early Dec cold and hopefully some snow!!!!!

Pick of the bunch so far has to be the UKMO ..who wouldn’t be happy to start winter with this pattern

It's nice that we all get along isn't it anyway,the 12z ICON is more pleasing on the eye than the 00z with a more amplified low off Newfoundland and better ridging into Greenland,also no pesky shortwave in the mid Atlantic,it does look a lot cleaner cut to me. lets see what the other 12z suits come up with as it has been a bit of a downgrade but all part of the parcel this fun model watching is. C,U for now

its 'scriceland' ………….. i know cos i think i invented it ! the 'r' is v important not to be confused with Griceland sadly, the lack of knowledge around these geographical terms is telling ……. we rarely get the opportunity to use them for people to be aware of them !!!! everyone knows what a festering Bartlett is!

Please use the report button if a post has gone too far. We want to keep it running smoothly in here. Don't let individuals spoil it, the team will deal with it. Thanks.

Looking at the GEFS 0z there's currently some potential for a cold start to the meteorological winter, here's a small sample!!!!!!!!

I like the fact that there is a real mixture of posters - it's why I keep coming back whether to get an insight into the short term possibilities or the perchance to dream charts of T+384 I really appreciate anyone who takes time and effort to break down these charts/graphs/simulations and printouts that leave me bewildered!

Morning everyone. So the GFS Ecm and Gem are all still showing unsettled conditions for atleast a week although details are different as you would expect the snapshots below.. Gem.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. GFS.. 24th.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. 1st December.. Unsettled and quite mild for the most part with high pressure continuing to influence close to Greenland keeping areas of low pressure on a more southerly track with a northerly wind shown for the latter stages of the Gfs and Gem. A bit more detail using the Gfs.. Spells of rain pushing northeast through the latter stages of today and into tonight fairly heavy in a few places but clearing north to leave drier conditions for the beginning of tomorrow excluding the southwest of England and Wales also milder than recent nights with winds blowing from the south or south east.. Rain becomes persistent for the south west tomorrow as well as parts of wales as the frontal system pivots.. Tomorrow night into much of Saturday a spell of heavy rain pushes more widely across the UK clearing southern areas later in the day. Sunday is looking mostly dry for most but a small area of rain over central areas for a time according to this Gfs update with some rain continuing for Scotland elsewhere some sunshine. Sunday/Monday more heavy rain pushes into the west during Sunday night.. This then pushes eastward it may take longer to clear for central and Eastern parts until later on Monday. Winds westerly. The centre of low pressure responsible for the rain on Monday then drifts through Scotland during Monday night into early Tuesday morning giving spells of rain to northern England but also rather windy for southern areas for a time.. Tuesday night into Wednesday heavy rain pushing northeast for most areas.. Then another low pressure system is shown for Friday 29th night into Saturday 30th morning giving strong winds and heavy rain.. Remember this is just a snapshot details will change as you'd expect but a very unsettled week next week is on the cards with a lengthy period of rain again. An animation of the weather for the next 10 days.. Here's an animation of the 10 day accumulated rainfall from this latest GFS.. Significant rainfall for Western areas with over 100mm for some much drier in comparison for east anglia and the southeast though. The area of the most rain will likely change but here is what it's showing atm.. GFS ensembles continuing to show a lot of scatter with upper air temperatures towards the end of the update indicating continued uncertainty. A lot of rainfall still shown for next week and perhaps beyond..

Sorry but I don’t get this ? This isn’t a day 10 chart or am I missing something here ?

Hmm wonder if I'll beat last winters 'best effort'

192 would bring plenty of snow showers to the NE & Scotland - Good time of year for cold maxima & pretty steep lapse rates

Plenty of cold ENS at 192, an example here.

It's interesting just to compare the adjustments to the 500 hPa pattern for the mid-term on the last 3 12z GFS runs for the 27th Nov.-what is now day 6. The latest run is the last image We can see as we get closer in time the model phases the uk low complex with the main vortex which helps to draw the colder air further south than was modeled 48 hrs ago.No more bowling ball low stuck out west with a milder flow in fact the trough has just about cleared into the N.sea. This in conjunction with the ongoing heights towards Greenland.Not yet perfecto for a real Arctic outbreak but a look at the 850 hPa temps at T144 show they are further south now. The UKMO also with a similar picture of cold air just hitting Scotland. Just to illustrate how things can change even at quite short range and how we can start to pick up a trend. . We have enough cold modeled building just to our north/north east to draw on.The question really for further on is how effective the Greenland heights will be in order to help to bring the cold even further south.

Or the problem could be - you only use one model. The GFS... Only yesterday ( & the day before that ) & so on.... The zonal onslaught was coming. How wrong that turned out to be-

Tough to pin down the direction of travel for our part of the NH ...... have we really moved on from last Saturday when I posted that northerlies were just as likely as southerlies in the extended ??. note that the ext eps now show a ring of high anomolys in the NH whereas a couple of days ago was low anomolys (not in the same position of course). Five day mean charts shouldn’t change that much and this reflects the current lack of both clarity and continuity in the week 2 nwp

Hello one and all once again!! WARNING: LONG-WINDED POST! Well, I've finally come out of my Summer hibernation + lurking on the forum, and perhaps start to contribute by putting in my thought on my upcoming favourite season; winter. Anywho, it's been a little up and down in here over the past few weeks, what with the roller-coaster already sterted, rolling up and down along the track at full speed. If you don't know, I always look at the models knowing where we all stand with regards to FL, and what with the models not showing the type of patern we all wanted to see, a big turnaround occured, almost, literally appearing out of the blue with today's 12z suite: 12z 20/11 GEM: t144: 12z 20/11 GFS: t144: 12z 20/11 UKMO: t144: 12z 20/11 ECM: t144: The reason I've been lurking through most of the season (I've been loving all the chat and excitment in here BTW! ) is that, as we all know, when a cold pattern is signalled by the GFS and none of the other models, I seem to really.....question what it's prediciting . Perhaps expereince have told me too many a time through my my time on the forums, that "If you get burnt once, you'll get burnt again" and all that, not to mention it's lower stats in verification . So I love all the "BOOM!" and the ramping posts and seeing everyone's excitement (I get excited too! ), but I know that deep down, if theres no cross model agreement, I tend to take it as all fun. But on this occasion, on how buzzing everyone's been on the forum, I thought "It's time I awoken and got on the roller coaster too!" ECM and UKMO look very similar too each other and when both those modles start to agree with each other (Especially with a cold patern for the UK,), I really sit up in my chair and pay attention. And great thing is that both on them look the best too! So here I go, the models and the FL cut-off point of t144..... Whats great is that all models have a genral concensus of a pateern, but on varyiation of the same theme/pattern: i.e. main lobe of the tPV over Russia/Siberia, height rises over Greenland, with low height under and around North-west Europe, jet stream genrally to the south and high heights around Central Europe, which is so unlike of what typical November pattern should be like! Where has that ragging Jetrstream gone!!! This is what it was like a few years ago...... Certaintly a hudge indication of an AO+ regime! And this is where we currently are..... What a difference! So what now? It's done deal? Nope! Now we all hope that the theme continues, the model's cross-agree on a Winter Wonderland, it gets down to 0+, and we all live happily ever after. (In my dreams!) No, but seriously, it's just a case of watching (And preaying! ) that everything thats affecting the tPV and sPV (e.g. wQBO to eQBO, solar min and the forecasted SSW for the end Nov/beg Dec occurs,) all affects it perfecting so we can reasp a brilliant pattern ripe for cold for the UK. I'm optimistic for the forth coming season and all the potential that it may hold, but I'm cautious....so I'm cautiously optimistic? Yeah. What ever happens, I'm gonna get on this roller coaster - enjoy the highs and the joy, expeerince the drop and lows and everything else that comes with it, and just expereince all with everyone on here, old and new! What ever this Winter has in store for us, let's all face it together!! *Cue chessy music* Until next time! ~mpkio2~

The only thing i can say this evening is. 'In ECM we trust'!!

Day 6 mean pretty good, but the DET prob on the colder end - however look at day 10s mean, that is mighty impressive From next Thurs it’s looking to be pretty chilly again, below normal I imagine anyway with frost and wintry showers in places - according the the ECM anyway

You need to see the jet stream for the same time to be able to make any real decision, even then of course things may well change. Fun to theorise though.

Far better ECM with the shortwave energy split and the pattern further east . The high needs to be boxed in and not allowed to be pulled west , if you get enough trough disruption heading se then that would be great .

Yep love it great run EC.

Ecm/ukmo at 120,very similar.

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight A complex, negatively tilted trough, is dominating the eastern Atlantic and the associated slowly pivoting front has already brought some rain into the far south west and this will move slowly north east through the day to cover an area mid Wales > Portsmouth. There will be some heavy pulses in this. Elsewhere generally quite cloudy ad filling a tad chilly in the brisk south east wind Tonight the front will continue to pivot as the rain tracks slowly north east with perhaps some heavier bursts in the south west, courtesy of a following trough. Remaining generally cloudy with perhaps some breaks in the north west The occlusion will continue to travel north through Friday, thus cloudy with outbreaks of rain in many areas, with again the north west getting the best of the weather. But whilst all this has been going on a wave has developed in the southern quadrant of the trough and is 979mb north of Coruna at midday and a stray occlusion associated with this may well bring some heavier rain to the south west. Warmer than of late Over Friday night and through Saturday the low and associated fronts track north into the Channel and the UK, thus a wet and windy day in many areas. But to the to the west further troughs are tracking east across the Atlantic as high pressure starts to build over southern Greenland Continuing unsettled with showery rain overnight but the first trough tracking east has arrived on the scene and there is a vigorous surface low 985mb south west of Ireland by midday Sunday and heavy rain will sweep across western regions through the afternoon and evening accompanied by strong winds The low then drifts north through Monday as the energy hits the block but the movement of the occlusion north will be accompanied by a band of heavy rain Warmer than of late

ECM snow depth @ day 10 for any newbies we know these charts exaggerate snow depths and we expect there is a fault whereby all snow falling is accumulated, but it gives a good indication of where snow will at least fall ...according to that ECM det run

Cold Decembers in the US? I wonder how Decembers in Europe compared! Interesting to see the Met Office UK CET ranking December 2010 as the second coldest in 334 years. The third coldest December occurred during the last Grand Solar Minimum. And the coldest December recorded (1890) occurred during a rapid decline in sunspot activity, before recovering in the early 1900s. Observations are now trending towards the next Grand Solar Minimum. Current sun spot activity alarmingly low. Notice the total lack of solar activity in the last 4 months. CM predictions expecting the sunspot cycle to steadily climb. However the recent trend of weakening solar cycles prevails, and the increase in activity stalls. For comparison, here is the sunspot activity for the last 400 years, since 1600. If increases in sunspot activity are not observed within the next year, there is chance for a series of considerably colder winters in the years to come. I'm all for a green, clean planet. But I struggle to accept humans directly control the climate. More inclined to agree that we are a contributing factor to the climate we experience. It seems more and more plausible to suggest the sun, a ball of fire 1,300,000 times larger than earth and relatively close on an astronomical scale, directly controls and dictates the climate on our planet.

First boom chart for me, mainly because it’s not deep FI and has support from the UKMO, some ENS and the METO update. The ECM could have cold enough uppers for country wide snow (away from coasts) at 192 - close too it anyway.

Big difference ukmo north greenland thats the issue ECM cleaner..

I seem to be on here too much as I know what all the terms are The Euro slug is one of the classic terms I've heard alot of today. Anyway the Gem and Gfs this evening still in rather similar agreement upto day 10 with bands of rain sweeping across the country one after the other really clocking up the rainfall totals once again.. They both show a somewhat brief northerly around day 10 before the high pressure system out West topples over the uk quickly cutting it off.. Liable to change as its a while out.. Gem for Tuesday.. Saturday 30th.. Sunday 1st December.. Gem rainfall totals for the next 10 days below.. Here's the Gfs.. GFS rainfall accumulation for the next 10 day's very similar to the previous rainfall accumulation updates I've posted today.

that's cursed it ………………..

Whoever said “More cliches needed” ..., Bravo

Couple of observations from the 12z gfs suite 1) the Alaskan/Aleutian ridge is back big time as week 2 progresses 2) chances of at least one recurving typhoon in the nw pacific through week 2 ………….. that could have a notable effect on the NH profile if one gets effectively absorbed into the general WAA which is ahead of the building ridge

Love the forum, the realists, the fantasy islanders, the lot. The only thing that gets me down is zonality at 300 hours verifying and winter wonderland failing at 36 hours. No forum member is to blame for that though. It’s just these weird little islands we call home.

Just to be clear. I was not making a threat. I am not arrogant enough to think I am in a position to do this I was merely making an observation that it saddens me that there is no place in this thread for those who don't go along with 'the game' as other approaches really do not mix with this