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Well I like the Gfs 6z operational because temperatures are mostly below average and it's sometimes very much on the cold side, there's frosts ice and snow, it's stormy at times..not a boring run, much better than benign nothingness...and it's not even winter for another 3 weeks!

Morning all . Woke up to a nice covering of fresh snow. The fine mesh model we use forecast 20cm at our location with-in 2 Sq M perimeter and guess what ? Spot on. Just blows me away with the numerical accuracy at that range. A great tool for the resort planners. The winterview chart below from CDPS model seems to continue the rather cold unsettled spell over much of NW Europe at 144t with further snowfall over the Alps and increasingly so over upland Northern Britain. There appears some uncertainty at this range from this mornings big main models. Both GFS and ECM seem to water down the prospects of a developing Scandinavian with a shift to a more Northerly flow and mid- Atlantic ridging but the British Isles remains in the cold side of the trough throughout. Will get the views of the team with regards to their own medium longer term outlook. In the meanwhile just received latest snowfall portal service report and that's for 30cm more snowfall before the end of Sunday. C

OK, got a bit of an up date from the team over here. They think the latest GFS run flattens the Atlantic ridge far to quickly at 144t and beyond. Certainly a flow NW to SE into much of NW Europe at this stage. Beyond that period their own model hints at a more sharper Mid Atlantic ridging than being shown by GFS and lesser so by the ECM. Also discussed the demise of the Scandinavian heights previous shown on the shorter to medium term models. They think the forecast models are in a volatile state presently and over the coming days with rapid changes in the atmospheric dynamics likely to occur. So flips in the models more than likely but generally the feeling is for a rather cold and unsettled period for most , especially in NW Europe/ British Isles.

Outlook - unsettled and quite cold The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK chart Apart from showers still ongoing down coastal regions, particularly in the west. a clear and chilly start for most regions with quite a widespread frost and a few mist patches. These should clear and it will be sunny in central and eastern regions of England for much of the day but cloud will encroach from the west during the morning with some patchy rain on the first occlusion by midday. which will track north east. Quickly followed by the main heavier band of rain courtesy of the next occlusion which will be effecting the south west by 1800 The low continues to develop overnight and the occlusion slows down as it swings north east resulting in some persistent rain over northern regions with heavy showers following in the south west which could be thundery Not a lot of change through Thursday and a very unpleasant day for many as the low takes a firmer grip with the moderate rain continuing over the north accompanied by strong winds and further heavy showers in the south west which again could be thundery The rain will continue for a while through Thursday night but will eventually clear as the trough is forced south east as it comes under intense pressure from the west By Saturday an occlusion is tracking east across the country associated with a negatively tilted trough being driven around the subtropical high by a very strong jet and this will bring rain to most areas with snow on the high ground in the north The front will clear to the east over Saturday night so Sunday a much drier day with sunny intervals with some showers in the north courtesy of the trailing front but another quite cold day. Apologies if this is somewhat disjointed but having trouble with the sites I use

The circulation pattern overall is supportive for further wave activity in the stratosphere. At least if one trusts the likes of weekly CFS and JMA ensemble models. The Siberian high is a good sight to see for now, if we can also get decent lows in the North Pacific. I have gathered more thoughts in another place. An unusually strong early attack on the Polar Vortex expected! Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is not excluded in the next 30-60 days – Severe Weather Europe WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU -spread the word- We often hear the term “polar vortex” as we head closer to winter. But this season, we will talk about it earlier than expected. We recommend you read our tutorial article, on what is the polar...

The GEFS 12z mean indicates temperatures sliding well below average for much of the next 7-10 days, especially for central and northern uk so it becomes cold and it continues predominantly unsettled / cyclonic with wet and windy spells and there is a considerable risk of hill snow across the north bringing a wintry scene at times, perhaps the snow won't be exclusively reserved for high ground either!..❄

Just a bit of a follow on from the above post I sent earlier. The ECM run more akin to the thinking of the team over here and that's for more a sharper Mid -Atlantic Ridge than been currently shown by the last few GFS runs. However, as the atmosphere is going through a very volatile change presently, changes still a foot expected. See what the morning brings. C

No one has posted this, a much better set of ENS in FI - this mean at 384 looks great !! There are some awesome charts to be fair.

ECM looks much better at 192, although it’s really just a slight diff it heights over Greeny, but all important WAA splitting the PV

Very much as you were with the ECM mean! Very similar to the 0Z,still plenty of runs approaching - 5c line. Basically it remains chilly for the next 10 day's, and I've noticed the boys from Exeter have pulled away from that much milder theme moving forward, so the signs could be about to look up for a change. In the words of that great x BBC 1 forecaster Dan Corbett.... That's ya weather for now... Legend!

Well I think most would agree that that is a sliced vortex even on a mean chart at 10 days, ECM T240: Won't give anything cold to the UK in foreseeable, but... bigger picture...NH trop vortex having trouble getting out of the starting gates...ah...bless!

The 500mb flow comparison GFS v ECM at 240t highlights a big difference . The red lines of ECM much more amplified compared to the flatter GFS flow. Could all flip again in the morning ! C

Looking in the relatively near future, the usual 6-10 period with the 500 mb anomaly charts= Wed 6 November 2019 All 3 now show a similar chart that is ridging eastern atlantic with n of w flow into uk, fairly similar looking charts really and the 8-14 noaa is not all that different to the 6-10 noaa. So rather changeable, possibly the odd rapid deepening surface low approaching uk in the period, on the cold side of normal with prob snow higher hills Peak/Snowdonia north. Calmer spells, if o/n=frost over fairly wide areas? Contour height just s of uk=546 is fairly cold for this time of the year. I have no idea why the NOAA site link now shows as it does below! Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Not seeing these signals ..... the semi reliable timeframe looks interesting but anything more than this ???

A move towards the 06z GEFS blocking , could be a smashed PV in FI yup, PV is smashed at t300. What I also like is that we have a very warm Eastern USA and heights heading to Greeny from that to pump the heat into that area . USA 850s show this nicely.

what!,your eyes jokes aside theres incremental adjustments in the 18z but not much even WZ has frozen at 189 will have to view the run in the morning a final note before i turn in,my partner is in a stable condition and will be reviewed on over the next couple of days,i feel so lonely right now sorry.

For now the key point is that the Azores high remains out west and is not modeled extending eastwards into Europe. This is because of the omnipresent UK trough directing se into C. Europe. Once that happens the jet goes north and we revert to zonal westerlies. At least we have a coldish pattern from the north west which looks set for a couple of weeks yet until we hopefully develop a better blocking setup over the Arctic. The forecast reduction of zonal winds higher up gives some hope. This reflected in the shredding of the pv showing in the later frames of the model runs. A very different looking pv for November in the models that's for sure.

It's nice to see the gfs get going out of the starting blocks unlike earlier and last night... gfs,ukmo and ecm how bad was that!,i bet everyone wanted to throw there monitor/phone out of the window anyway the 18z is much better at disrupting the trough at 144hrs showing a neg tilt SE as opposed to a near bowling ball shape with better height's to our NE,all these incremental steps make a huge difference as to what happens later on i would just like to mention about the models into fl because a lot of folk think that it's going to happen and jumping on the bandwagon(esp newcomers),like if we saw a stonking run or runs we jump to conclusions thinking this will happen.it might but nine times out of ten it will not,same goes to oh! no zonal train incoming in fl,no it ain't but the trends are what we are/all looking for and i for one also look for trends,forget about the details that comes well in the reliable,macro fl,micro in the reliable the trends do still show hp cells floating around to our north in the NH and it's these hp cells that keep us interested as to what the falling dice will play later on,now we all know that these hp cells might not be in the right place for delivering cold to our shores,that will be bad luck but look how small our island is compared to the NH lastly thanks to all the great posts again in here today,i always feel warm and welcomed in this nice community cheers ----------------------------- the latest news on my partner is that she is doing fine and she looks much better today,the docs said she might be discharged as of Friday or poss tomorrow, also she is on detox medication for her drinking habit of which hasn't helped with her condition of stomach hernia.

ECM T240: Inroads into the Arctic, but different places to the other output,...OK, given the current uncertainty, I can see that... A good time to take stock as to where we are right now vis-a-vis the upcoming winter, informed by the 12z runs. I can see no evidence yet from op runs or ensembles that the trop vortex is becoming coherent/coupling with the strat vortex. That is a good thing, indeed the main thing, for a coldies point of view. Immediate UK cold and snow is unlikely, well you could say that about the first part of any November, Mike! The recent potential for some was always pie in the sky, which is why I haven't gone on about it in my posts, preferring to focus on winter proper... We do need now to get the trop pattern sorted out - if it stays disorganised then it isn't clear that we want a SSW at all, if it ramps up and couples with the strat we definitely do! Uncertainty is large, and we are heading towards a knife edge tipping point (too many metaphors!) The result of that tipping point will become evident from the model output soon, maybe next few days. You can't say it isn't interesting....

It remains a preety cold and unsettled outlook for the foreseeable, with no change in the overall pattern, a cold trough through the UK, ridge building in behind with the jet on a continued NW-SE alignment on a southerly trajectory. Wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north at times, just cold rain for elsewhere, though might see some sleety wintriness down to lower levels at times in the north. Frost and fog a common feature at times as well. Very seasonal. Longer term - a split between GFS and ECM, the former showing a less amplified flow, the latter wants to inflate the ridge through the mid atlantic which could introduce a colder NE flow at least for a time.

Scotland anyway could see some wintry weather on low ground at times mabye towards this weekend you never know the run from the Gfs shows various wintry precipitation at times mostly in the north but even further south adding to the chilly feel to things through November although GFS definitely over doing the wintriness I feel. It's only one run so the next update no doubt quite different.

IMO, the secret here is to get that Alaskan trough to draw some of the attention of the Canadian vortex to the west - that should help quieten the Atlantic lowheights a tad and allow some blocking to establish and hold in the e Atlantic or nw Europe sector

Yes , no deep cold there yet @Mike Poole but still a rather impressive 10 day full run of negative 850mb temps for the time of year covering all the British Isles. So I think rather cold would suffice but as we all know a lot can change in 10 days. C

Ecm looking cold,looks like Northerly setting up at the end of the run. Sking season going be starting pretty soon in Scotland too,judging by this run.

Ventrice suggesting a SSW in Dec, interesting.

I think this set of 12z runs is quite important. Recent runs from the op models seem to have suggested a path to a milder evolution, but everything is still in the mix as far as I'm concerned. GEFS 6z at T300 has all manner of trop vortex contortions: That is all good, but the higher resolution op runs will be significant. The chance of an immediate cold period is, for me, anyway, of much lesser importance than the bigger picture of where the north hemisphere winter might start from on Dec 1st, which makes the state of both trop and strat vortex the main model output of interest just now.

ICON giving a good spell of snow with some to low levels in Scotland (central belt) and maybe N England

Unfortunately we have the triple whammy of HP in Siberia, HP over the Arctic and trough over the US, so in the mid-term there is no way we will get the sustained cold uppers directed to the UK; T240: The best we can hope for is the washout from the cold exiting the US, that by the time it reaches our shores is warmed out. We need a pattern change, but ECM is aligned to the GFS as far as the bigger picture is concerned, viz; Pacific wave, US trough, Azores High, Siberian High, Arctic High, just the finer details as to the wax and wane of these drivers, any which way seemingly not of much help to our region for cold ATM. Hopefully the models are not tightening up on this pattern, and instead there are changes, leading to a better placement of the major players, so the UK can get a bit of the action!

BBC raw suggesting an hour of sleet at 300m asl near my house. I would urge caution for anyone expecting snow below 350m at a rough guess but would be happy to proved wrong...

12z What an upgrade for coldies for the weekend and beyond. Getting towards the reliable. Even sleet now at low levels Heavier ppn now down to 600ft asl

I enjoy your updates C but why do a full copy and paste of your last one. Link to it it if you feel it necessary but can you imagine if we all did this? Thanks

Feb, your gonna need stress medication mate come the beginning of winter! Every GFS op run is different to the next one... Surely not worth getting to hung up over this early mate. The 6z ensembles not even been done yet. Looking at the 0Z ensembles from both GFS and ECM, we still have a fair few colder options on the table. Which considering its only early November, is still decent. If we are expecting siberian blast in the heart of winter... We will probably be disappointed!! If we are expecting it this early.... We will most definitely be disappointed. Roll on the 12s....early days and all that.... Still looking at least seasonal and that's better than this time last year.

Acre in the back garden in full colour seems to always be the same week of November when it turns regardless of conditions !

The paper referenced above, which reviews the February 2018 SSW, can be found here - http://ifurtado.org/wp-content/uploads/Publications/LeeCharltonFurtadoWoolnough.pdf Jason Furtado kindly makes available papers he's involved with, a great resource - http://ifurtado.org/published/

Nothing like a sweeping statement to start the day. I'm not sure we can make a blanket statement like this with so many signals for cold in place this year, Yes it's early and all just starting to unfold and needs to fall into place, but I'd take this over the last few years any day.

To put a touch more meat on the bone with the ecm. The showery rain clears away to the south on Sunday but the next trough quickly arrives on the scene bringing more wet and windy weather, perhaps plenty of snow on the high ground in the north, Mon/Tues

The gfs iis sorted slightly and the 5-10 anomaly indicates strong ridging into the Arctic from both sides with a continuation of the trough feed on a strong jet Canadian vortex > to the UK. Ergo unsettled with wet and windy weather at times with snow on the uplands in the north, with temps below average And this is the theme with the extended GEFS and the amplification of the anomalies is worth noting

One of the first extended runs in a while showing a more typical pattern we see at this time of year with the azores high placed well with low pressure across the north with frequent strong westerly winds.. This is the extended range ofcourse so it really is garbage this applies to cold synoptics at the end of the extended range. It seems the GFS either blows up the westerly flow too much because of the general bias to these conditions or show ridiculously unusual cold charts that are unlikely to verify.. although the consistency of cold synoptics thrown out by the GFS and various other models over the last week or so is impressive and can be taken more seriously.. (with one less pinch of salt to normal) I suspect the Gfs will flip blocked and cold again but whether that will be the outcome we obviously won't know until the general time frame it shows it for.. but then again you all know that ofcourse. I do think we will see fairly blocked conditions for a while yet but It's a waiting game for anything particularly wintry away from higher ground of Scotland for now. Allseasons-si no need to apologise I hope things get better for you and your partner. You've got us lot to keep you company.

Hey si, chin up mate, I no all about hernia problems, had my fair share. Best wishes to the missus, hope she is well soon mate. Regarding the 18z, I think Feb just pointed out about some decent Estly, and Indeed there are a few! Not to hung up over the pub run, especially when it's been on the lash all night... Its head will be more sober come the 0Z run Still some decent ensembles though and a very good ECM, so overall not a bad day...

Indeed shaky, this was the worry, ICON slower with the blocking, and UKMO arguably even more so, although it only goes to T144 so difficult to extrapolate that. I mentioned yesterday, crunch time was coming, maybe more slow car crash...and the concern that a coupling of strat and trop will follow, against that though is perhaps a pattern more conducive for a strat worming... Edit: obviously I meant strat warming, but I'll leave it, the idea of a strat worming amuses me! Maybe worms are the answer yes, I know that is a caterpillar but you work with what is available!

The icon 12z finish in good place going forward . No big pv lobe over Greenland and blocking all over the Place .

A period of moderate snow is being forecast by the ICON for northern areas on Saturday as a very slow moving weak front drifts into colder air sitting across the UK. Maybe a couple of cm across hillier areas.

Looks like a cracking run for the alps and Scottish ski resorts, so not all bad. To be honest it still looks pretty good, still heights around Greenland at day 12 and low pressure over the med - let’s be honest, we could be in a much worse position than this heading to mid Nov.

Yes, we are learning all the time with the new GFS, and it does seem it has the ECM problem of over hyping height rises. I think we are going to have to face up to a lot of cold false dawns if the 06z about-face is correct! Here are the 10 day ECM and GFS 0z bias and we can see why those 10-day charts in both models rarely come about; D7 bias: We will have to see whether we are heading into the normal Autumn pattern (wind, rain, cool at times), and buckle down for a while till something colder develops.

Same old problems as we always have....warm western USA, very cold eastern USA. Massive temperature contrast along the eastern seaboard. Turbo charged jetstream, low pressure fired straight at the UK. Repeat ad nauseum.

There is your typical late autumn pattern right there. which is actual something i like

Some Very cold air for the time of year entering the north Atlantic on a brisk North westerly flow.

Sorry if i offended you so early in the morning with the possibility of uk climatology norm setting in a few weeks down the line(pv reinserts itself) I'll choose my words more wisely in the future

My take of the direction of travel is that the Canadian vortex may well have its attention drawn towards lowering Alaskan heights rather than in the direction of the Atlantic or indeed, it’s Siberian partner. If that verifies, then expect extensive blocking Asian side of the NH