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Gazing into the GEFS 6z crystal ball, early November does show some wintry potential for most of the uk..possibly a cold bonfire night!...there could be some cold weather across the far north for a time towards the end of the week ahead too..

The Ecm 0z operational brings an Indian summer with 564 dam clipping the SE!!

A white Christmas?

So, here we are again: the GFS 06Z Operational has reverted to its earlier idea, of possibly widespread snowfall, for areas north of, say, the Central Belt? It'll be interesting, to say the least, to see whether ensemble-scatter has increased again? Not that it'd last long, anywho!

Nothing better than a cold bonfire night!

No thanks

In my post a couple of days ago, the models at T144 (then Thursday) were progging a Greenland high. So now it is two days hence. So a look at the 12z runs with that in mind, focussing not on weather for the UK (which actually mostly looks warm and reasonably settled) but on Greenland, here's the ICON, UKMO and GFS, GEM at T144, now Saturday: This feature looks like becoming established. Where we go from there, well who knows at this stage, but like I have said in recent posts, regardless of what the seasonal models are saying, there is much interest in this evolution...

Ok,a balanced post from me,i would take an Indian summer like scenario as i am fed up of all the rain that we have had,if you look at the NH profiles this hp cell would do some damage to the fledgling pv,the pattern still looks amplified to me even out to day ten the gefs/ecm means but what goes up must come down around the back door,i am not saying that this will happen but one to watch because with an amplified situation like this,anything could happen,it's a very meridian pattern with slow motion hence the uncertainty i mentioned earlier tonight's cpc outlook suggest's a fine spell of weather for the BI.good,but that is some hp cell/block and i see no Atlantic influence from these charts and the NAO/AO show this ok we are still in October and we would like to usher things along to winter but patience is always granted we have a long way to go yet so hold on there my fellow coldies a final note is that i think we are in a better situation than previous years with more of a less solar influence,-qbo trending E though i think later on in the winter,EN SO state remains neutral,SAI(snow advance index) is slightly better this year and the OFI(October fog index),well we have 11 days for some fog to form,is that too much to ask,it has been ages since i have seen some fog any acronyms i have missed

It seems as if the Scottish cold snap (with accompanied risk of snowfall) has more ensemble support than do the, much later, warm uppers in Southern England? Aberdeen: London: So, given all the scatter, nothing is anywhere near 'nailed on'?

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational it's a mild / very mild and rather unsettled end to october and early november...very mild halloween with sw'ly zephyrs!!! ...bit different to yesterday's 0z!

Today's 00Z Operational seems to have moved away from some of the extreme solutions it was indicating, yesterday: And, have the ensembles lost some of their scatter? As usual, it's baby steps...More runs needed!

The 18z control height anomaly over Greenland is giving us a wink and a smile,whilst it brings us an easterly some nice cold pooling filtering west over Scandi.

Hi Pete i think the word we are looking for is uncertainty the ecm however gives us a tame northeaster at day ten...yuk but at least the blocking is to our north all subject to change of cause regarding the uncertainty

Which is precisely why i place about 5% probabilty of charts beyond 144 hours.. Even less on colder outcomes. EC12Z looks mainly dry again this evening but there looks a fine line in the 120-144 timeframe between cool and dry or wet and mild.

The scatter is getting worse than ever, in the GEFS 12Zs...? And, as pointed-out above, there are rainspikes aplenty!

There's some really insane temperature contrasts between north and south from the GEFS 12z later in the week, anything from 0c with frosts, ice & snow in parts of scotland to a balmy 18 or 19c across southern england..bizarre.

Not so sure about a cold bonfire night, i can guarantee you a lot of lightening strikes and thunderous bangs though!! The GFS control looked pretty peachy again... Even threatening a..... Wait for it..... Estly... Some lovely heights over Greenland again also being flagged up by some ensembles!! Let's hope this trend not only continues but strengthens during our run up to Xmas.

Large increase in snow seen today in Asia and particularly Northern Russia. Also the sea ice extending out from the shoreline has jumped today. Continued similar weather conditions could well see a flash sea ice freeze in the next few days, as there are patches of ice now showing at sea in both Laptev and in the west area of the ESS.

Considering that Tuesday's my day-on-the-farm, I'd certainly take this one: no wind and no rain -- practically perfect in every way for outdoor working...??? Shame it won't happen, though!?️

Today looks mostly dry in much of the UK but some showers can't be ruled out bit of uncertainty tonight into tomorrow as we see some potentially quite heavy rain clip the south east of England and its likely the far south east will be pretty wet tomorrow with more than 10mm in a few places.. How far northwest this gets is uncertain and hirlam certainly had a very wet Monday for many parts of England with 30+mm but its stepped back from that extreme solution Icon showing most of it to stay offshore indeed most of it may stay in the channel and France but I think it will be down to now casting always a degree of uncertainty with rain coming from the south or southeast. Dwd icon.. Hirlam.. Yesterday evenings output.. whatever happens tomorrow is looking like another dry day for most other parts of the UK with some sunshine though quite a lot of cloud for Wales and central England at times. Tuesday looking drier for the southeast and indeed most other parts too except some rain in the far north of Scotland and that heralds at least a temporary unsettled spell there.

Briefly and then back to cool and probably wet . I like the overall northern hemisphere view tho , the pv not looking healthy.

GFS 12Z all looks a bit bog-standard to me, most of the extremes having been smoothed out?

Lovely Autumn Sunday,coupled with a good drop in temps for the first half of the week is what a proper season should be like. A break from the rain,time to let nature show off. A far cry from the bleached landscape of summer 2018 thankfully.

Reached 19C yesterday. Thick fog here this morning but the forecast is sunny and 20C as a maximum temperature. Very pleasant, if so

Yes,plenty of drama to end the week according to the 18z.

Check out the Antiques Roadshow from Battle Abbey, a weather enthusiast bloke has some original stick on bbc weather symbols on for valuation, he has £ 2000 worth.

It was a beautiful day in Ardnamurchan, total blue sky in the morning and a few puffy clouds wafting in from the west in the afternoon. Although not warm, according to the thermometer, the lack of wind made it feel very pleasant. The temp dropped sharply later as the sun dropped behind the hills. Downside for me was all the photos today are rubbish. Caught this little group of hinds, unexpectedly crossing the road, which were being shepherded by quite a young stag, I think.

There is a lot of spread now appearing on the GEFS again . Also the rain spikes increasing again . There are some colder runs appearing again as well . Also is this some warming up the top ?

12z GFS The change of the seasons - next weekend. Decent ppn chill on the tops to an Indian Summer. Whats not to like?

Today on Cairngorm. The two surviving snow patches on Braeriach will be welcoming this.

another boring 06z gfs!!trough anchored out west and mild southerlies for the uk!!!really is depressing!!its like the cold northerlies hit scotland and then south of scotland just says nope your not pushing through just yet its far too early in the season lol!!

17 days blank, 216 for 2019, 74% Solar flux 66 Thermosphere: 4.32

I am liking this run from the gfs 18z,cold air already entrenched before the low out west swings in,and look at that GH pressure,it's a monster at 1050mb. i know it's in fl but this could be a snow maker for northern England northwards just for fun.

Quite a wintry sunset again tonight with the yellow/grey shower clouds of this afternoon becoming pink tipped in the late afternoon sunset. In a months time these showers would have had a very wintry flavour. A NE wind in October blowing showers onshore from the Firth is fairly rare here.As an aside to the leaf fall overnight I noticed that the ash leaves have tuned yellow and are falling too. Usually ash leaves remain green till November .Currently 8c

GISMETEO.COM: Half of Russia is covered in snow - 17 october 2019 | Climate | Новости погоды. WWW.GISMETEO.COM The deepest snowdrifts (up to half a meter deep) are observed in the Magadan region and Yakutia.

Looking pretty good for a much more settled and drier period

__________________ _ _ _ This month is the final stage of the 2018-19 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !! C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November 15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938) 14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947) 10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994 9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011 9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821) 8.5 ... ... ... ... 2002 8.4 ... ... ... ... 1997 8.3 ... ... ... ... 2018 8.2 ... ... ... ... 8.1 ... ... ... ... 2003, 2006 8.0 ... ... ... ... 1982, 1984 7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999 7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986 7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004 7.6 ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001 ,.. ... ... ---- average of 2001-2018 ---- ... --- average of past ten Novembers --- 7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1991-2018 ---- ... ---- average of 1989-2018 ---- 7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ...... 7.2 ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- average of 1981-2010 ---- 7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008 6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1971-2000 ---- 6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012, 2017 6.7 ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1961-1990 ---- 6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1901-2000 ---- 6.4 ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013 6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2018 ---- (6.08) 6.0 ... ... ... ... 5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1801-1900 ---- 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1701-1800 ---- 5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... ... ---- average of 1659-1700 ---- 5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were 1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest) 4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest) 4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782 --0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791) --2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965) --4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904) __________________________________________________ colour coded warmest, average and coldest since 1981 -- due to ties, 13, 14 and 11 in these categories. daily records are for the period 1772 to 2018 monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2018 Enter your CET forecast by Thursday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November. =============================================================================== (2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2019 __ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __ __ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __ 202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2017 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903 200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall 196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm 192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981 103.7 mm __ mean for 1989-2018 ... 100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010 93.8 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2018 50.2 mm __ 1988 _ driest since 1981 23.1 mm ___1805 _ second driest 1766-2018 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2018 ___________________________ ** __________________________ Recent November EWP ... 10-year average is 111.4 mm ... : 2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8 2013 _ 79.2 ... ... 2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1 >>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines

Jolly red sky this evening.

First day of the autumn when there has been a definate shift in overall feel of things - chilly in a word, with a cool northerly wind, combined with clear air. Temps have struggled to hit double figures for the first time this season - all very normal for mid October. Could do with some crisp cold mornings and air frosts, but alas there will be too much wind and cloud around for that over the coming nights. Looking ahead- a mixed week, but thankfully some drier conditions in the near future - which will be a welcome respite from weeks of rain.

Better

The met office have finally issued the long range update for yesterday still nothing on the mid range Sunday 3 Nov - Sunday 17 Nov There is significant uncertainty through this period. However, the beginning of November may become more settled and dry for many areas with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Any spells of rain are more likely in southern and southwestern areas. Temperatures will probably be a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely, which could persist well into the mornings. Further spells of unsettled, windy conditions with some rain or showers are likely at times, more especially towards the middle of the month. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

A much better day today after the biblical deluge that was yesterday afternoon/evening. That caused plenty of localised flooding around Aberdeen last night (link) though not much evidence of it driving round the area today. Max temperature of 11c with a keen N/NE wind, dry with sunny intervals. Plenty people taking advantage of the better weather in Stonehaven - the Aberdeen bypass has been a real boon to the local economy going by the cafe owner we were talking to today.

We came down to Hastings today for a few days, I never knew it was Hastings bonfire night one, if the busiest days of year down here may have changed plans.. a nice evening very atmospheric, choked to death by smoke but a great procession, bonfire and firework display, sadly phone died no photos! And weather behaved on the way down there were a few sharp showers which skirted coast but a good day overall.

I'll predict we get to 270 + for the year

Evening all! Been a long time since I've been in here... good to see the same posters and that use have kept this thread going! Must be snaw hunting time eh And thoroughly SEEK of the peeshy wet fife has been festooned with yest and this morning... floods everywhere roads closed Wee bit excitement building about a possible cold Halloween I see Right now I'll be glad to get a dry day the morn 2 sort my garden out! Wine pouring time... happy weekend folks! X

Here’s the chart

The gfs this evening has amplification upstream vis a North East Pacific ridge and an extremely strong jet exiting the north east of North America south of Greenland which isolates the high cell over Greenland and results in a lot of energy crossing the atlantic.curtailing any expansion of the European high, Ergo the trough in the eastern Atlantic is kept in play suggesting more unsettled weather but more inclined to northern regions The detail of this still not resolved and the ext GEFS mean is still indicating a relaxation of this

Here is the 12z view of things NH view today T144, from UKMO, GFS, ICON, GEM: Consistent signal for heights over Greenland. As I said last night, let's get to this point that the models are broadly in consensus with, and then see whether this blocking pattern has any legs, in terms of longevity, or toes, for that matter.

After watching the the Parliament channel for half an hour I felt like banding my head against Brick wall so instead went for a walk around Esher Common the fungi were sublime but felt slightly challenged by the mushroom pickers which were out in force romping through the forest floor collecting everything edible in sight ... I guess it’s good that they are used but wonder about the effects on the precious ecosystem - Esher Common is a sight of special scientific interest there was also a circus skill group which had set up a tight rope across a path who were practicing there skills which was a bit bizarre !! what a day !!

Some terrific pics of a squall line over Bungay, Suffolk, yesterday 18th Oct. Courtesy of Twitter @AndrewAtterwill