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Showing most liked content on 27/09/19 in all areas

  1. 37 likes
    Hi gang , great to read all the posts although i have been a lurker of late .finaly sorted my life out after the passing of my late wife 2 yrs ago .Looks like some real action weather over the coming 10 days .have a feeling in my water things could get very interesting ,take care all .
  2. 10 likes
    One of a number of photos today from Western Isles Weather of a possible tornado in the South of Lewis. Funnel clouds also reported in the North of the island. I believe that the owner of Western Isles Weather site may be a tornado chaser here.
  3. 9 likes
    There's more than a hint of winter about next week according to the Gfs 0z operational which is GREAT to see!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!❄
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    So a "drier" night compared to last night but still a scattering of showers for particularly western coasts although some filtering inland at times windy too across the south tonight but mostly dry. Then for tomorrow a dry start in Central and Eastern areas but a small trough moving from west to east with some persistent spells of rain moving through northern Ireland Wales into northern England some locally heavy rain aswell as bands of showers work there way southeast across much of England and Wales some really heavy downpours are likely but some sunshine possible particularly in the morning showers too for Scotland but because winds are lighter the showers will be slower moving. Winds also strong across England and Wales with gusts to around 40mph particularly with the heavier downpours. Tomorrow night then turns drier for Scotland and Southern England but perhaps a line of showers moving across the far north of England during the night less windy too. Saturday then looks mostly dry for much of the country but cloud and rain arrives in the southwest later. This then pushes northeastwards across the whole of England and Wales also into parts of Northern Ireland later in the night turning very heavy fairly widely particularly for Wales and northwest England, Winds strengthen through the night with coastal gales for the southwest but very windy inland too northern Scotland looking dry. Sunday then for much of England and Wales is looking very wet for much of the day only slowly clearing into the evening into the North Sea along with very strong winds for North sea coasts also for the southwest as the low potentially becomes elongated, Scotland drier with just a few showers early rain for northern Ireland clearing southeast later. Sunday night into Monday is looking much drier with some sunshine early on perhaps but by late afternoon the next batch of rain is waiting to the southwest and will take a similar track through England and Wales come Monday night lingering into Tuesday afternoon. All in all looking very wet particularly for the southern half of the country welcome rain for the south ofcourse. This forecast is based on the arpege so details can change other models are in similar agreement. Hope this is informative and useful.
  5. 9 likes
    yep welcome back @tight isobar another 8 months trying to work out what any of your posts mean!!! can we have it in plane old english this winter??
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    Morning all, Up early to have breakfast with my Wife, before she started her early Morning shift. Our breakfast was accompanied by the sound of a very vociferous Vixen?? (that's not easy to type, first thing in the Morning!!). Evidently, they only mate at the start of the Year. I think this individual may well have been calling for it's breakfast, as one of our Neighbours is famous for feeding Foxes. We heard plenty of "concertos", during the long and balmy Summer Nights, just passed!!! I'm sure Colette's thankful I don't make that noise, when wanting my breakfast!! Right, onto MeteoGroup's extended Forecast. Below is a BBC Video link to the Forecast, Helen Willetts on shift: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49847261 Helen started her Forecast by stating that we've already made up for the dry start to September, across the U.K. but more Rain, is on the way. A mass of cloud out in mid-Atlantic, waiting in the wings for overnight Saturday, into Sunday. But ahead of that some torrential downpours likely, in the form of Showers. Today, we're likely to see some heavy Showers possibly with hail/thunder, after a dry start with some sunshine. The Showers should move through quite quickly on brisk winds, from the S.W. Max. Temps. for the London area, around 18c. Tomorrow, sees Sunday's "troublemaker" starts to move in from the S.W. Some Tropical Air will be "encased" in this System, which will mean some copious amounts of Rain, are likely to fall. Saturday looks a very reasonable start, it should start dry, after any overnight Showers have exited the extreme S.E., of our Region. Max.Temps., again around 18c, for the London area. Cloud will then thicken, as that deepening area of Low Pressure moves up from the S.W., bringing with it some heavy Rain and strong Winds. Allied to high Tides, there could potentially be some localised flood issues, for Southern Coastal areas of our Region. Once that Rain eventually moves out of our Region, a strong N.W. wind will arrive in it's wake. A "drying out" picture, moving through Sunday then with Sunny spells developing and a Max.Temp again of around 18c, for the London area. The start of the new Week, sees a brief respite from the unsettled Weather, under a temporary Ridge of High Pressure. Dry for our Region on Monday then with some Sunny spells and a Max.Temp. of around 18c again, for the London area. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the Weather goes "downhill" yet again with more Rain moving across our Region. This Rain will eventually clear away on Tuesday, from our Region with Sunny spells developing and a Max.Temp. of around 17c, for the London area. Wednesday should see a drier spell of Weather, for our Region but Helen suggests it's not set to last, as Low Pressure (amalgamated with ex-Hurricane LORENZO) in mid-Atlantic,looks to become the dominant feature again. Although our Region should escape the worst of the Wind and Rain and it will feel quite muggy, as the Tropical Air associated with that feature, floods across the U.K. That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Helen Willetts. So, a very disturbed spell of Weather to come over the Weekend then, for our Region. Something to watch out for today, IMO. Is something I mentioned a while ago, we'll have an unstable S.W. flow with a reasonable length of track across the English Channel, whose S.S.T's are relatively high at the moment. At the start of her Forecast Helen's graphics suggested some heavy ppn in the form of Showers which could well be squally and thundery with some hail mixed in, pecking away at our S.E. Coastline, which could be of interest to those Brontophiles amongst our Members in those locations, as we go through today. Regards, Tom.
  8. 4 likes
    cAfternoon All- Its early doors in terms of venturing to much into the MOD thread however with the run in to 19/20 eagerly awaited - The current juncture seems a decent point to inject a bit of 'cold' optimism. Current persistence of the -NAO 2019 has been record breaking throughout AMJJA - However with a spike into low positive territory early Sept the thoughts of the negative trend lasting through Autumn & Winter probably took a hit. We have now possibly moved through this positive phase into a negative oscillation which initially appeared to be a temporary affair- however increasingly as the pressure field over the pole gets better resolved & approaches ~ 144 > 168 so the possibility of a more sustained -NAO period with High pressure in situ over Iceland appears likely. The 12z ICON goes full undercut -The GFS has morphed towards this from the 06z but not fully & the 00z ECM had no energy underneath. ICON GFS Its at times like this the models & mid term signal often follows the persistence of the ongoing NAO pattern - & in Autumn / Winter thats usually working back towards positivity- however on occasion it would seem no matter whats thrown at the models they gravitate to cold - 2009 / 2010 / 2018 being some examples where all roads lead to cold despite mild being the trend to start with. If you overlay this with the ongoing thoughts ( raised by me at least ) that the arctic is going through rapid 'evolution' then if this evolution is ever to drive a higher frequency of cold / very cold episodes in the UK then the undercut type scenario has to happen in Oct > & also Nov in December. Which of course will go against the current seasonal outlook. cheers S PS the undercutting scenario is certainly better for SAI / westward snow movement out of Russia.
  9. 3 likes
    While still being a few days out, the likes of the 12Z UKMO, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM in general agree to the weather settling down a bit during the middle of next week, as some mid-Atlantic ridging (likely to be transient) develops over the UK. 12Z UKMO 12Z GFS 12Z GEM 12Z ECMWF Some showers can’t be ruled out towards North-Eastern areas next week in the cool North-Westerly to Northerly wind, and some rain, which could be accompanied by strong winds as some speak about, may move into Western areas next Thursday. But the speed, timing and angle of any unsettled weather from the West/South-West later next week, does depend how that likely storm to the South-West of the UK ridging behaves. For now, a (temporary) period for some drier, less unsettled weather looks possible for that middle part of next week.
  10. 3 likes
    The control is some what consistent,i posted it yesterday evening and looks very similar run that chart to 300 hrs 850hpa temps and you get this,-4 isotherm down past the south coast,bonkers for September,sorry,October.
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    Any lingering thoughts of droughts will soon be a distant memory! Hosing it down here once more.
  13. 3 likes
    A very autumnal look to this morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles:
  14. 3 likes
    Time to dig out those canoes and kayaks folks... Nowhere really escapes the rain in the next 10 days, with some very large totals falling in Wales, N/NW England and N Ireland. Flooding will be an issue, no doubt about that. The signal for higher pressure developing into October is also fading into the ether: A lot of this is down to Lorenzo tracking into the mid latitudes and adding a hand grenade of energy into the Atlantic and really adding some bite into the jet: Plenty of unsettled weather for the UK for the next 10-14 days.
  15. 2 likes
    Proper 'beasts' from the E are the real deal in mid winter where UK winter weather is concerned. Proper deep cold. That beast at the end of Feb/beginning of March last year proved to me how buckets of water can freeze solid in no time at all with a proper deep cold flow of air.
  16. 2 likes
    Well the first wave of showers earlier largely missed my location, with just a very short, albeit sharp shower. More a feature here today has been the gusty wind with a 33 mph top speed so far. The second wave of organised showers on the way looks pretty potent for the north of our Region, but further south the band is looking more fragmented and I suspect I'll miss out again. By the way, I see there were a couple of lightning strikes near Northampton earlier - anyone see/hear anything? 14.50
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    "I suspect there will be some daily temperature and daily snowfall records broken in some locations during the next few days." https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/09/arctic-express-coming-to-northwest.html
  19. 2 likes
    very wet here during the night, dryer currently but i feel it could be wet again later.
  20. 2 likes
    Here is my patented LL Scale! Its measured in mm/hr, And works for virtually all types of precipitation, However it is mainly used for rainfall. Enjoy... If you want to, I suppose... 0.05-1: Extremely light 1.75-2: Very light 2.5-3: Light 3.75-4.25: <Moderate 5.75-6.25: Moderate 7-7.75: >Moderate 8-14: Heavy 20-28: Very heavy 38-60: Torrential (Anything above this point is typically convective) 76-120: Extreme 150-250: Incredible >300: Unprecedented.
  21. 1 like
    Yup, still could go many ways. Some fairly notable evolutions out there though I still favor the track to the west of Ireland keeping it off shore I think. Should be interesting to track this.
  22. 1 like
    At one time (back in the early 2000s) I was one of those who dismissed January 1987 as chiefly a south-east event, mainly because I had access to weather stats for Lancaster and they just had a centimetre from it, and because the archive charts show very high pressure across the north. But my present-day impression is that most areas had a fair amount of snow, with sheltered western areas tending to be the exception, as the air mass was so cold that it was able to generate plenty of North Sea convection all the way up to eastern Scotland despite the very high pressure. Another area that was heavily hit was, unusually, southern Cornwall, with massive falls in places like Penzance, as the air mass was so cold that even the far south-west peninsula was cold enough for snow, and it presumably got hit by snow streamers running along the English Channel.
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    ECM gives us a direct hit from Lorenzo at 168 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
  25. 1 like
    There's even more scatter than usual, on today's GEFS 12Z ensembles...or is there? I wish we could flash-forward into December!
  26. 1 like
    Newmarket Kameko - Nap Haydock is subject to a 7am inspection, so I'll hold off until tomorrow.
  27. 1 like
    Jumper on, jumper off, don’t you just love autumn Hope everyone had a pleasant summer.
  28. 1 like
    EARLY-MID AUTUMN RACING COMPETITION SAT.28th SEPT. NEWMARKET 1.50 - SELECTION - Sound of canons(nap) HAYDOCK 2.05 - SELECTION - mikmak 3.15 - SELECTION - acclaim the nation
  29. 1 like
    No, thunder and lightning for Thurrock. There was at least a half an hour of moderate rainfall. There could have been more, as I am not sure when the rain started, approximately around 2:30pm. The rain stopped around 10 minutes ago and it is 3:47pm. The temperature is 17.0ºC and the humidity is at 77%. The barometric pressure is at 1001.9 hPa.
  30. 1 like
    That would probably make them even more storm starved
  31. 1 like
    cambridgeshire replacements and Al Jellaby
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    14.6 to the 26th 0.8 above the 61 to 90 average 0.4c above the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st
  34. 1 like
    Looks like a southerly tracking jet and northern blocking aswell!doubt its gone feel too mild either!!horrible combination!!
  35. 1 like
    Hi Tight Isobar, good to see you! Always enjoy reading your posts. The SAI is always a favourite at this time of year for predicting the upcoming winter. In your opinion, how reliable is it as a predictor? It certainly isn't a busted flush like the OPI but how well does it verify in terms of reliability? Any of our other experts feel free to pitch in too, I do like a good discussion about such factors! (sorry I deleted some of your post, just did so for ease of scrolling and avoiding tl;dr )
  36. 1 like
    Wasn’t last year’s snowfall record breaking in Calgary for a single day ? https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/03/calgary-alberta-province-just-saw-unprecedented-october-snowfall-winter-gets-off-huge-start-canada/%3foutputType=amp
  37. 1 like
    Yep, that's what has happened especially the last few years, but one year we have to hit that January Jackpot surely
  38. 1 like
    The MOD is a funny old place... winter posters being welcomed back like they are god like figures, yet if you look back at the past 3 winters the said god like figures have been wrong each and every week despite the fantasy they paint... big words with different meaning do not make a winter....
  39. 1 like
    As the winter brigade is back early time for the rest of us to depart Adios But one last thought. It would have been interesting on OWS stations Juliet and India with this scenario
  40. 1 like
    And nearer terminology!!.. A good representation.. Of the decline. And Scandinavia COOLING....
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    Hey everyone! I'm new here. Nice to meet you! I've been watching the showers feeding into SW/Central Scotland. Any chance of thunder? There seems to be a few red cells but none electrifying A few models including the Met Office's seems to be indicating a chance at 21:00 ish? Would love an Autumn storm!
  43. 1 like
    Everything looks a mess these next 10 days.... The models obviously struggling with the storm tracks! One thing for sure is, the ECM seems to have dropped the pressure rising scenario. But good god, just take a look at the ensembles.... Its literally like a person of a nervous disposition took a lie detector test!! Anything looks possible.
  44. 1 like
    14.5 to the 25th 0.7 above the 61 to 90 average 0.2c above the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st
  45. 1 like
    It’s looking increasingly cool for start of October going by the latest GFS 0z run
  46. 1 like
    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/rainfall-shortage-could-lead-hosepipe-3355880 If not cold then this Autumn needs to be wet,followed by a wet winter. Cold or not. Mild and dry would certainly not be good by any means!
  47. 1 like
    Give or take a minute, we have an Equinox
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    Yes I remember it well! Woke up at my mates house with almost a foot of snow cover, he couldn't be bothered to drag his cart around in the snow so I did it for him and he let me keep all the tips lol
  50. 1 like
    Morning all, Up early again with a cuppa and a recording of MeteGroup's extended Forecast, this Morning with Lucy Martin. See BBC video link below: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49694713 We're still looking at 25C/26C possible, for the London area today. Quite a muggy Night for our area to come, with an overnight Min. of around 15C, for the London area. A weakening Cold Front, pushes that humid air away S.E, into the Continent. A cooler, fresher feel in the early part of the new working Week. Thereafter, High Pressure still looks to dominate and is it edges further East, we will start to import some warmth from the Continent, again. Just a hint that Low Pressure could start to move in, the second half of next Weekend. So, possibly becoming a little more unsettled than it has been of late but Max. Temps. still holding up in the low 20'sC, for our Region. Still plenty of dry, sunny and warm Weather to come in the extended outlook then for our Region, as we head into the 2nd half of September. Regards, Tom.
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