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Leaving temperature to one side, it's been remarkably dry too. Been digging today and the ground is the driest I've ever known it to be in February. Personally speaking, I'm loving this warm, dry weather, really don't want a return to winter until at least December. I'm hoping the models predicting cold in the first week of March are as wide of the mark as they have been for much of the winter.

"Oppressive heat"!? Are you ill?

An early morning booooooom! Just for the sheer hell of it being the first real Nthly blast of the winter, even though its in fi, where have you been?? We have been waiting 3 months!

Since the average for this time of year is around 9c..13c isn't bad..many areas have been mid teens c or higher!! Anyway, the Gfs 12z shows around another 7 or 8 days of very mild and largely fine weather with sunny spells and light winds (breezy in the west / northwest at first) and an ongoing risk of fog forming where skies clear..very remarkable spring-like spell for so early!

All aboard the -AO train - just in time for Spring - at last some belated good news to get rid of this oppressive heat. EDIT : Just looked at the rest of the run on wetter - a stonker, snow would be involved, difficult to say the latitude and altitude cut off point.

Hottest ever February day in NW England, 17.3 Levens hall Cumbria. Beating a record that stood since 1953. All hype though hey. What hope do the forecasters and media have, when, in the face of clear facts, some people still think they got it wrong?

Icon 12z continues to upgrade the current warm spell in terms of longevity!!so far out to 150 hours and warm and sunny all the way through!!amazing for february!!

Outlook -In the near time frame pretty much as has been previously discussed. Essentially upper troughs to the west, blocking high to the east with the UK just about under the influence of the latter with surface systems tracking north on the eastern flank of the former just tending to effect the north west The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the surface UK chart for 0400 As can be seen plenty of Stratus and mist/fog in central southern areas this morning which will slowly clear all but eastern coastal areas, leaving a dry day but perhaps with diffuse sunshine. Sunny elsewhere apart from W/NW regions where it will be cloudy with some rain, and quite breezy, in the latter from a passing front. Another day with temps well above average, particularly in favored spots, and the Feb record for Wales may be under threat The Stratus and mist/fog will roll back into central areas again this evening and overnight with everywhere else being clear apart from, again, the north west The Mist/fog will again clear through saturday morning leaving everywhere with another sunny and warm day with temps again well above average. But a cold front associated with one of those systems mentioned at the beginning has edged into western regions thus more cloud and breezy again with rain in the north west. Sunday another dry and warm day as any fronts lose their identity as yet another deep low in the Atlantic tracks north towards Greenland Over Monday and Tuesday little change so waffle can be kept to a minimum this morning. Again temps well above average and once any mist/fog clears quite sunny. Again the far north west being the exception

It's the 22nd of February. Someone has broken the weather. Hope this isnae our summer...

Oh ok..... That's a shame.... The reason I like coming in to this forum, isn't just for the weather related comments but also for light hearted, down to earth, chat that people have on day to day basis...... Goats, melons, cucumbers and most importantly @TomSE12's life, history and weather....but more importantly the fact that people feel that they can talk about normal day to day things with other normal people..... Yes weather related maybe, but more often than not...... But at the end of the day if people just can't talk in whatever "forum" they've got friends they feel comfortable talking to then you may as well just delete the thread entirely........ This will almost certainly get deleted but hey hum...

Not far off equaling yesterdays high of 14.6 C here with today's high so far 14.4 C, currently 13.2 C and pressure 1029.74 hPa with cloudy skies still hoping that something like this can develop during March and provide something of a more wintry flavour

6.2 to the 21st 2.6c above the 61 to 90 average 1.9c above the 81 to 10 average _________________________________________ Current high this month 6.2 to the 21st Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

But hasn’t that been the story of this winter, signs of anything potentially wintry have nearly always remained outside the day ten range. Besides, like the gfs the 00z Ecm run seems to be yet again delaying any breakdown with the block proving more resilient. Wouldn’t surprise me to see this eastern block continuing to plague us well into March.

These are the only existing spells of 3 or more consecutive days that reached 10.0 C mean daily CET ... and to fill out the list I added one that began in January and another that ended on 1st of March, in a leap year. 4 _ 23-26 Feb 1846 (11.3, 11.4, 10.2, 10.0 followed by 9.8, 11.1 so five in six days and 9.8 or higher for six). 4 _ 30 Jan - 2 Feb 1923 (10.0, 10.1, 11.4, 11.0 followed by 9.7 so 9.7 or higher for five days). 4 _ 11-14 Feb 1998 (10.5, 11.4, 12.0, 10.1 followed by 9.8, 9.7, so 9.7 or higher for six 11th-16th). 4 _ 2-5 Feb 2004 (10.9, 12.2, 12.8, 11.8) included the two warmest February days 3rd-4th. 3 _ 9-11 Feb 1899 (10.5, 12.0, 10.2). 3 _ 28 Feb - 1 March 1960 (11.3, 12.0, 10.3). Not quite three days but very close ... 1779 may have been the warmest February but its best three day interval (26th-28th) ran only 10.3, 9.9 and 9.4. In fact there were only three days in that month reaching 10.0 or higher. There were many in the 8s and 9s though. 1801 had a four-day run 3rd to 6th Feb of 9.9, 10.9, 10.2 and 9.7. 1834 exceeded 10 on last two days (27th-28th) and also on 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th and 9th of March. The lowest daily mean in that interval (all in March though) was 8.2. It was 9.7 on 1st of March in that run. 1869 managed two 3rd-4th and had four 10+ days in eight days (3rd to 10th) and six days (3rd-8th) that were all 9.5 or warmer (10.3, 10.7, 9.5, 9.8, 10.5, 9.6; then 8.4 on 9th and 10.4 on 10th). It had a running CET above 8 for most of the month and finished second warmest to 1779. 1903 just missed from 8th to 10th Feb with 11.4, 11.2 and 9.8. 1912 had 9.9 on 27th then 11.1 and 10.5 on 28th-29th, but first of March did not continue above 9.0. 1914 started the month with 10.0, 9.8 and 10.1 after a 9.8 on 31st January. 1939 had a spell from 9-12 Feb of 9.8, 10.2, 11.4, 9.2. 1945 had four days at 10 or higher out of ten from 18th to 27th Feb, the interval between first and last two days that set that mark was not particularly mild. 1959 started a run on 27th with 10.1, 11.4 but the first of March was 9.5 ending that borderline case. 1990 came close with 9.8, 11.5, 10.9 from 22nd to 24th, it was 11.3 on 20th so three in five days there. 2011 was also very close 5th to 7th with 10.3, 10.1 and 9.8. 2017 from 20th to 22nd ran 10.7, 9.9 and 10.0. ___________________________________________________ So we'll see how 2019 does against that group of February warm spells.

Good-humoured and sums up the feelings of any coldies who are left on here following the mass exodus!!

Slight drop on the 12s to this mornings runs! But my god waiting for something significant to devolop is becoming one long painful slog, 3 months I've been at this now and it's beginning to take its toll!

UKMO 144 lots of very cold air filtering down to the north east. Can the pattern evolve to back it west? Who knows? At face value it can’t be discounted. Just a nudge here and there and we’d be in business.

My Wife tells me it felt very mild outside today. Managed to get my head down for a couple of hours this afternoon, to negate the amount of sleep I lost last night, due to a blasted cold. Still slept a little, despite my airwaves wanting to give me a rendition of Mozart's, Violin Concerto No.1 in B - Flat Major and crikey, it was flat!! Really not fair, as my Wife has had this cold but without making a cacophony of noise, as well. Really hope I can sleep quietly tonight, as Colette has a 12 hour shift, tomorrow. Truly hoping that Ian Currie's March Greenland height rises and subsequent Northerly start being reflected in the Forecast Models soon, things are starting to get a little desperate. Regards, Tom.

Balmy gain today in NE Fife, 15c at Leuchars in very light winds. Last few days of meteorological winter look certain to remain mild....then we’ll see what spring brings!

Aye, dunno who can want horrible PM air and wet weather 5 degrees over this

It’s hype because the warmest weather isn’t in the SE for a change. Over 16C today in Leeds with beautiful sunshine.

Wow, I hadn't looked in here until today ... the more recent posts I can see general agreement with, the recent trends are self-evident although we were being told back around 2005-06 that we would never see snow again nor would any months ever dip below 3 C (a certain "Stratos Ferric" was well known for these opinions here), opinions which to be fair might have looked a lot less ridiculous had December 2010 shown up only on the GFS and not in reality (this year we only got as far as the GFS). The earlier discussions about large-scale engineering of the atmosphere to produce desired results gets into questions about (a) cost effectiveness, (b) actual need for these changes, and (c) scientific validity of the theories of cause and effect (in other words, would the high walls and other proposals actually create the changes desired, or something else, or nothing much at all?). I will note in passing that while Donald Trump might never build such a wall to slow down the subtropical jet stream, an even greater force built quite an impressive wall across southern Asia and the weather in Japan seems to be quite subtropical most of the time. Jet streams have a way of working around or over these barriers. But I can't dismiss the concepts presented out of hand because there is no way to know what the real effect of these projects would be, other than wrecking the view for selected unlucky towns in the desert southwest. Other posts suggest the onset of a period of more intense stormy weather due to global warming. This has become one of the big talking points of the climate change movement, aware as they have become that the general public either feel skeptical about the magnitude of warming or secretly wish it would warm up (believe me, in Canada, there is no shortage of this sentiment). But in reality the trends seem to be in the opposite direction. This warming climate seems a bit on the bland side compared to the 20th century or the colder 19th century. I recently finished a study of pressures over the Irish Sea from a data set derived from the NOAA reanalysis. This covers the period from 1851 to 2014 but I don't think there have been lower pressures than the ten lowest in that interval since Darwin (Feb 2014). The twelve lowest pressures were recorded in these years (in order) -- 1951, 1884, 1989, 1886, 1905, 1877, 1966, 1929, 1949, 1915, 2014 and 1876. If the study had extended back to 1839 that would have joined the list, possibly in first place. There is no sign in that list of any tendency towards increased frequency of low pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles. The mid-point of the study interval is 1932 and by then, seven of the twelve had occurred. The interval from 1876 to 1886 produced four, and that was a time of generally cold winters (although the specific dates of the strong lows fell in less cold periods than those famous cold winters such as 1878-79 and 1880-81). Anyone interested in seeing the data set can find it posted in my research thread in the Science sub-forum. I posted it in the last week so it should be near top of the menu there (and in the last post of the thread until somebody comments on it). This matches what I have read from seasoned weather watchers on various forums, that the frequency of very strong winds seems to be decreasing in recent years. Many different people whose opinions I trust have commented that there were more frequent severe wind storms in the 1980s and 1990s than we are seeing in this recent decade. And when you think about the list of most damaging wind storms in history around this region, most of the obvious candidates are well back in the past, a few like 1987 or 1990 not so far back, but off the top of my head I would say 1703, 1839, 1884, 1886, 1903, 1953 are among the leaders. This warming climate may prove to be more benign than malevolent. We've heard a lot about increasing frequency of hurricanes and tornadoes as well, but actual statistics seem to point in the other direction over the past decade. Anecdotally of course, there is always the one event or season but there again, we've seen worse in the distant past. The very worst hurricane season was probably 1780 and the worst tornado event was in 1925 (second worst in 1974). Perhaps if we are going into a long-term solar downturn we might be wise to thank our lucky stars that we were here to take the edge off LIA-2. And if you want snow, try Buffalo. There's a high vacancy rate in their hotels during the winter and their snowfall to date is 102" but if that's no good for you, may I recommend Marquette, a lovely town in northern Michigan on the shores of Lake Superior, currently dealing with four feet on the ground, and expecting two more this weekend. Snow to date, 184". (seasonal average 200", so probably on the way to an above-normal season). Personally, I continue to think that this recent climate "change" is more of a return to high variability temperature signals that were associated with the years around 1770 to 1800 and perhaps the 1970s into early 1980s. There is a human component to it, more like icing on the cake that would have existed without us being here at all. And I don't buy into theories that suggest we are altering the large-scale patterns. Just like the urban heat island may be strong locally but not really disruptive of weather patterns, our greenhouse gas emissions are just warming up the existing and inevitable weather patterns, and if one studies the data carefully, that warming is mostly happening in the overnight hours. I don't think it has large implications for positions of storm tracks, jet streams or Ferrel cells for that matter. These are where they might have been, had squirrels been the dominant life form on our planet, but those squirrels would have faced chillier nights, still they have fur and we don't, in most cases.

12z so close to getting interesting regarding a final shot of winter.., heights in the right place to the north just need the lobe of vortex southern Greenland to back off west.....

See, I really don't understand this attitude. They same people who bemoan the youth of day for being celebrity-obsessed and glued to their phones are the same people sneering at the protests. While these kids were out drawing attention to the global issue of our lifetime, our paid grown-up politicians were arguing about whether Winston Churchill was a goodie or a baddie.

Continuing with the gfs. It is still looking at the beginning of the pattern change around T144 But the blocking high does appear to put up more of a fight this morning. Of course probably inter run variations so any detail to be treated with the usual caution. At T168 and 192 the ridge is still in business with the Atlantic trough stalling and coming to a bit of a sticky end so still dry with temps above average but not as much as earlier. But by Saturday a front does manage to cross the country bringing rain and strong winds to the north

Many on here will be aware that I am far from being a meteorologist; I do, however, have a science background as a biology graduate and ex-Masters research student, albeit several years back now. Your comment reminds me of a couple of principles in science that support you post: 1. Researchers, often under pressure to generate positive results in order to generate further funding, often pay insufficient aattention to, and fail to make best use of, negative results. Often, finding that something is not the case or that the factor you assumed must be responsible for what you're researching has nothing to do with it tells us more than confirming a link. In this instance, the finding that a serious cold period didn't emerge from promising signals will help us to understand things in greater depth than had events proceded as expected. 2. If we only consider evidence that supports our preconceptions and existing hypotheses, we can miss important hints to the contrary and can end up in a position of confirmation bias. Often, the greatest scientists have been those who have frequently critiqued their own hypotheses and searched for contradictory evidence. If you're a cold fan, you ought to ask yourself whether there are routes to milder conditions even when models are producing cold outputs for the UK, and mild fans ought to ask themselves how things could go cold even if the indications are that zonal or Bartlett conditions are likely.

Seems like a nice day out there, today. Still harbouring hopes of some late season snowfall. Had to curtail my afternoon nap. Have developed a nasty cold, that my Wife no doubt caught at the Residential Care Home, where she works. Have hardly slept a wink in the last couple of days/nights, thanks to Phillip Phlegm. My airwaves decided to perform an impromptu violin recital, this afternoon but it certainly was NO Stradivarius!! They could have been tuned in first. So decided to sit up in bed and watch a bit of "The Miserables" with Colette. The "violin" stopped but crikey, those French are a depressing lot, aren't they!! Now need another course of counselling!! Think I'd rather spend a couple of hours reading posts, in the Model Thread. Regards, Tom.

Doing similar for the CET over the last 30 years (assuming this month finishes about 7C after corrections), using >0.5C for above average 0.5 to -0.5 for average, and <-0.5C for below average we get: While winter temperatures are still highly variable, the trend is very clear to see. Quite remarkable on that graph, that if the exceptional 2009/2010 (coldest of the last 40 years) winter had occurred in the late 1600s, it would have been considered close to average. Even the 2010/2011 winter would have been considered close to the 30 year average for 42% of the record, and for 64% of the record pre-1900.

In other words, Bris, the lives of the rich, the powerful and the 'right thinking' would be a whole lot easier were all the young whippersnappers quiet, amiable, timid and - most of all - more inclined to acquiesce to the whims of their 'betters'? No wonder semi-literate man-babies have come to rule the world!

Could it be this one sleety!

Gefs 6z ensembles, still on the cold side, would be seriously worried if this was an ECG graph as one seems to have flatlined right down to the - 10 mark!

Plenty of interest there Edd, just look at that low as it spins eastwards and pulls in some real cold air, could bring quite a bit of snow up north!

So yet again it's a lovely start to the day deep in febuary, quite bizarre going on what we experienced this time last year. Will it continue is the question? 5 or 6 more days looks a good call currently with temps still ranging mid to high teens, obviously this being dependent on cloud amounts and any overnight fog that could linger. Even though the long range models now hint at a change later next week, let's bare in mind they have seriously underperformed this winter! But the jet does look like it will be gaining a bit of resurgence and will eventually shift this persistent block we have in play. With the jet moving in on a southerly latitude the air to the north could be quite cold at times, colder enough for snow in the north, but I wouldn't rule it completely out further south at times. Those hoping for a BFTE part 2 may be disappointed, as you will be aware at this point of the year the continent tends to warm on a daily basis, especially as there is know constant influx of Arctic air! Estly winds can't be ruled out but any long fetch and long standing ones are very unlikely. On the basis of things the current trend of more unsettled conditions should be most welcome, being such a dry winter in all. Maybe a chance to top up the very low reservoirs! Obviously not all places will see a great deal of the wet stuff, especially those in the SE. Anything remotely close to last summer weather wise and we could end up in serious trouble if this spring does not deliver appreciable rain amounts. So signs of change with more unsettled conditions, perhaps even some snow at times as winds turn more N/NWtly, beyond that..... Who knows!! Hopefully another barn storming summer, suncream and deck chairs at the ready!

Yes Chris, the 00z ECM looks as if it could introduce a wintry Northerly, if it went beyond t240. Regards, Tom.

Understand as the majority do, life is hard It's a weather related thread though, not behind the key hole or jk. Imo get a grip. Respect to Tom though life can be cruel Very warm at times in North west kent today. Imagine this will not be received very well in the community but I only come on here because I like COLD. Will be gone soon Light hearted Deep Many more platforms or email 4 this.

What is the perceived wisdom on cutting the grass in early spring when there might still be sharp frosts to come?

Good points, but what happens if EC46 and Glosea are in complete disagreement! The funny thing is how much attention can you give to your 30 day forecast when you know such a minor infringement can throw it completely out! We all know a forecast beyond 7 days is nigh on impossible at times, and it's only trends you can go on, but like I said above, just one minuscule change and everything is out of kilter again..

Feb 1998 had a CET of 7.3 (tied third warmest ever), and that had a relatively cold first three days; in fact the CET up to the 9th of that month was just 4.4*C, and it reached 7.3 by the end of that month; a reflection of how exceptional the rest of that month was.

Well I wasn't gonna post em all Feb, the bottom line being they pointed to an extremely cold and blocked january

Perhaps it's the greenhouse effect?

I wouldn't trust it whatever it shows, we (coldies) know how terribly badly the February long range prediction has gone compared to the good chance of a freeze that was indicated day after day, week after week through january from exeter who use GloSea5 seasonal / Mogreps..among other data ..anyway, moving on..the omega block persists well into next week with plenty more very mild fine weather but then the jet profile changes back to a more typical position and we get a cooler more unsettled atlantic pattern.

Indeed.... and the warming over the last 10 years has been exceptional. Individual months may see some cold over certain regions but this has little impact on global temperature overall. Can't deny the world is warming. This global temperature anomaly plot shows how foolish it can be to take regions of cold in isolation in the context of global temperature variability. Back before 2007 the models thought summer sea ice wouldn't vanish until the 2070s, however what has happened in the 10 years since has caused a huge revision of those forecasts. Now the consensus is the 2030s with only the most aggressive ensembles picked the late 2010s (like a cold outlier in an ensemble pack).

A balmy continental spell ahead - if this was summer - a major heatwave, alas it is only late February, but still temperatures will be on a par with average temps experienced in early May. It will do wonders for spring bulbs, bringing a very early spring in complete contrast to last year, when we had a very delayed one. It does feel very Feb 1998.. Longer term - strong signals the atlantic will break through as March arrives with temperatures back down to average, which will after a week of unusual mildness feel chilly. Every chance we might pull down some colder air from the north/north west as move through the first week of the new month - all very normal. Had we not such a strong northern polar front jet and strong PV lobe over NE Canada, we could have been staring at a notably cold spell similiar to this time last year, with trough disruption and easterlies then able to penetrate - we are not far off such a scenario, alas too much energy is going to ride over the top of the high, forcing it to collapse. You can see why the Met Office were suggesting chance of colder easterlies/north easterlies, but they haven't come off - bad luck this year! On a personal note, this current impending spell is about a month too early for me, I can't get enthused about it, too early in the season, darkness setting in before 6pm still - hence I've not been in the thread much past week or so and won't until we kick this spell aside. On this note, goodbye winter 18/19 promised much, teased far too much, gave back very little. We are entering March-May soon, when unusual synoptics can pop up out of nowhere, spring is the most tricky season to predict, and its the most interesting season in this respect, when the probability of the atlantic winning out is at its lowest, I'm hoping for more varied affair than we've become accustomed too over recent months, when static patterns have long tired my patience.

I felt a sudden uncontrollable urge to say...BOOM..BOOM..BOOM..sincere apologies!

Very early frog spawn this year. Can't remember it being so early.

Scottish February record broken, Aboyne at 18.3C. A record that has stood for 122years, Aberdeen 17.9C https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9420-weather-february-record-broken-in-scotland-today-after-standing-for-over-100-years

Very broad-brush, but I believe it tends to encourage more mid-latitude ridge dominance than usual during Mar-Apr, as the polar jet retreats north in tandem with the Arctic cold pool shrinking as the sun gets to work, and the organised vortex keeps high-latitude blocking to a minimum. Needs researching to be sure though (isolation of late warming years and then filtering out of strong Nino cases - as they distort things - to look for common patterns). Not something I've got the spare time to do at the moment.

Please folks, this thread is meant to be about discussing the weather and its impact here in the SE. A little bit of off-topic is fine, but recent posts are taking things too far. Can we get back on topic please. Chat about your local weather and it's effect on your daily life here in the regional forums. Thank you.

One of the odd things about warmest February 1779 is that it no longer holds any of the 28 daily records, it held on to 10.0 (13th) until that was obliterated by 12.0 in 1998. Warmest January 1916 also has no daily records. On the other side of the ledger, July 1948 which set three daily records including the warmest day of all, still finished below normal. So if Feb 2019 manages to finish around 7 as appears likely, then the recent winter that this most resembles would be 1994-95 when the CET values were 6.4, 4.8 and 6.5, tied with 2016-17 which had 6.0, 4.0 and 6.1. These are the other close analogues by total departure from (6.9, 4.0, 7.0). Winter ______ Dec _ Jan _ Feb ___ Total difference (abs) 1738-39 _____ 6.1 _ 4.0 _ 6.8 ____ 1.0 1789-90 _____ 6.1 _ 4.3 _ 6.6 ____ 1.5 1733-34 _____ 7.6 _ 4.3 _ 6.4 ____ 1.6 1994-95 _____ 6.4 _ 4.8 _ 6.5 ____ 1.8 2016-17 _____ 6.0 _ 4.0 _ 6.1 ____ 1.8 1821-22 _____ 6.4 _ 4.7 _ 6.3 ____ 1.9 1942-43 _____ 6.7 _ 4.9 _ 6.1 ____ 2.0 1913-14 _____ 5.1 _ 3.7 _ 6.8 ____ 2.3 (Dec is most of the differential here) 1868-69 _____ 7.2 _ 5.6 _ 7.5 ____ 2.4* 1749-50 _____ 4.7 _ 4.0 _ 6.7 ____ 2.5 (Dec is most of the differential here) 1862-63 _____ 6.5 _ 4.9 _ 5.8 ____ 2.5 ______________________________________ *This value moves up the table by a relative 0.2 deg for each 0.1 that Feb 2019 exceeds 7.0. It can go as high as second for 7.5 or higher but cannot catch the leader 1738-39. It falls to last place for a 6.9 finish and would be replaced by other winters for 6.8 or lower.

There have been signs of Barn Owls here in the past 2 weeks, And spotted one on the old stone gate post the other day but didn't have a camera on me, Today while out walking the dogs down the dale I spotted the pair. Great to see and will be setting the wildlife camera up with bait I think This picture was taken only with my phone hopefully you can see him, I was within 80ft of them for a good 10 minutes and saw one kill some prey.