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Can I be the first to welcome @knocker back to the asylum full time !

Spring may well be approaching but the ensembles are trending back to winter! After what could be record February warmth I wouldn’t mind a bit of March snowfall

Not a bad set I must say, generally trending colder with a fair few straddlers approaching the - 10 mark.

i see Mr.P has far less likes and very few followers compared to the buffoons who sit on their throne ..courting the masses in the hunt for cold thread..where people wait with bated breath on their every post..telling them to ignore the models as cold is just around the corner and watch the models backtrack..because the NH set up is different this year..but the models are proved right 90% of the time..whilst they spout the same old BS day after day..then disappear when spring arrives only to return in October to start the same circus all over again.

Definately not over? ....FI

Another sunrise..... Work stuff took me to the Fraserburgh area today, and so took a lunch break along the coast to Rosehearty. Weather was OK, just, mainly overcast with not too much of a chilly wind and the temp hovering 7-8C. The main interest there, apart from the usual cormorants and gulls was the fairly distant, continual stream of Gannets in single file returning to their breeding colony at Troup Head. Blurry pic! Edit: Forgot to mention that the full opening today of the Western Approach Road snipped at least 30-40 mins off the journey.

Rain from the warm front of the approaching system is already into Northern Ireland and north western coastal regions, This will track east through this evening and overnight effecting all areas, apart from the far south, but the heaviest of of the rain will be in north western regions, particularly south west Scotland The warm front will clear into the North Sea in the early hours but the waving cold front will bring further rain to western Scotland, in particular, and N. Ireland, tomorrow morning. As it's cloudy and quite breezy no frost

A new model thread as we near a new season. Now we're out of the winter rush, we're onto a single model related thread again, so please keep it to the models in here. There's a fair bit of interest currently with some unusually mild air on the way later this week and into the weekend. Looks like temperatures records could be threatened, at least the daily and regional ones, the UK record of 19.7c seems quite unlikely at the moment. Beyond that, lots of uncertainty - take your pick from more of the same, a colder still mostly blocked picture or the return of the Atlantic - so plenty to be keeping an eye on as we end the winter. Thread Moderation The team will moderate this thread to keep it on topic and focused on the models. Please only post model related discussion. Alternate Threads If you want to chat about the winter in general, have a moan about it, or whatever else, there is a thread here for that: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91052-winter-weather-chat-moans-banter-and-ramps/ The Spring thread is also up and running: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91223-spring-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/ And for the Met Office outlooks, there's this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/ Model Output And Charts On Netweather: GFS GFS FV3 (Para) GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere

Temps heading downwards as we enter March,a familiar tale of recent years,continuing this year too.

It's a stunning Ecm 12z ensemble mean for much of it's duration tonight..high pressure domination and with air, for a time sourced from the canaries / nw africa we will see max temps widely into the mid teens celsius range.. around 60f and even higher in places, closer to 18 / 19c..around 65f in the most favoured spots..t-shirt weather in february!!?️

00z out to 168 in broad agreement with 06 run and possibly heights to Greenland and maybe a cross polar flow from the Pacific side incoming. Cold start to March if it’s transpires!

I think the interesting point here Syed is that ECM GFS GFSPand GEM all show this retrogressive pattern so On balance I'd be more inclined to tight isobars enthusiasm.

Thats fairenuff pal. But im sticking with it...as i have for several weeks now!!

High pressure moving back west over the next few days so after the blip over the next day or so things will settle down for the weekend and becoming increasingly warmer with temps for some in the high teens

I'm truly overwhelmed ba. Well no doubt I will be! Anyway back to the record breaking jet and associated extra-tropical cyclone tomorrow and Thursday and another sneaking into the Atlantic on the jet that has dipped more southerly on Saturday

Looking at the GFS 6z operational / GEFS 6z mean in the longer term there are certainly signs that early March could produce something with a more wintry flavour..with a chance of snow for some areas!❄

Not without interest to the non towel chuckers

Tuesday 19th feb Ec-gfs has actually linked both ridges across the pole since the above, noaa not quite but all 3 look pretty similar in uk/Europe area with quite strong atlantic beneath major trough there So quite mild and dry looks the main feature, temporary spells of rain chiefly for nw’ern areas, ? record T values in places. No sign at all on the charts below of any real cold 6-10 nor on noaa 8-14 outlook charts https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Indeed. Always rated Ian as a top forecaster. About time some on here took note of his ability. He was adamant this Winter was going to be a fail for cold & he was spot on. It's been bloody poor!

And then you look at this, pub run T324: A bigger schism than the Labour Party for sure!

Ha ha.. A 'how warm will it be thread'... Quickly followed by..@bk to cold hunt. Its fantastic in here @times.. And the reverse psycology.. Is bang on the button.. Xx @big love My paywall..and analysis is fraught.. Enjoy your mild..false dawn.. X

Increasing potential for colder conditions with a chance of snow towards the end of the GEFS 12z❄

Decent shot of cold air from the NW later on in the run from the GFSP, not to shabby set of ensembles, with quite a lot of dip in the latter stages. Basically I've seen better, but compared to the current, big improvement.

The GEFS don't look great for cold at face value, but if you look right at the very very end they are a stonker, a decent cluster cold enough for snow.

Assuming thats from the ECM 46 that almost secures it being colder

Once the ice had lifted turned into a belter of a day - great new walk from Walton along broad water to Weybridge then passenger boat across Thames to Shepperton. Then a walk along North bank with amazing houses along river , not sure about flood risk though ??

Cmon buddy i admire your positivity but nothings going to come of this lol!!!its over lets just face it!!enjoy next 6 to 7 months of warmth!!fingers crossed!!

Really!!??. As per my previous post, retro-is looking more solid by the hour/or per run 2 run slots.. And as guided 'now pacific'..conversion to an eye watering pole annom..my bet would be even starker..in the retrogression prog, also the catchment of sub zero polar continental air..is imo still quite miss modeled...in regards to decipher of the hp-cell movement. Lets see where we go through the rest of today aye!?. I think to say temporary...is a big big punt...

You would think by now that those posters who follow the buffoons and hang on to every wrong word they say would have noticed this pattern by now as it's been going on for years and would ignore them by now

Outlook - becoming mild, maybe exceptionally for a time, and generally settled but perhaps with the exception of the north west The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 WV A chilly and bright start to the day and for many places it will remain sunny but cloud will spread in from the west by late morning as the next frontal system approaches and rain will be into N. Ireland by midday. This will track north east through the rest of today and overnight effecting all areas apart from the far south but much the heavier rain will be in the north west, particularly western Scotland, where two or three inches a possibility.Temps still a tad above average and no frost by the morning. And to note the oft discussed deep low has arrived in the western Atlantic By Wednesday the low associated with the fronts is south east of Iceland but the wriggling cold front is still effecting norther regions so still rain and quite strong winds here whilst further south remains dry But as can be seen the low to the west has deepened and warm is being advected into the UK on the south westerly flow Over Wednesday night and through Thursday amplification occurs and the upper trough to the west digs further south thus advecting even warmer air into the UK courtesy the long fetch along the eastern flank. Thus generally warm and settled but still quite windy in the north with perhaps some bits and bobs of rain. This remains the theme over Friday and Saturday, thus continuing settled but perhaps even warmer as slight adjustments of the upper pattern results in even warmer air being advected into the country. Max temps are in the lap of the gods but certainly mid to high teens quite likely.

Given that the MJO analogues aren’t reflected in the output trop pattern through phases 7/8/1, why do you think the MJO being in non HLB phases will preclude them actually verifying?? The MJO has been a poor forecasting tool thus far this winter .....especially so since the SSW - I don’t see why things should change now ........

give the tv forecasts a miss for a while. exceptional mild is forecast for the end of the week, and combined with a cheesy smile. love the way they assume everyone loves it very warm. Kids on half-term, i'm sure they'd prefer to be enjoying some snow at this time of year.. if we actually had a winter season it was the same, last summer. the heatwave is announced by someone standing in an air conditioned studio, with a big smile. There i was with extreme hayfever, even on medication, and not being able to sleep comfortably for a long long time Oh dear, i am grumpy today

Its tight..(no pun intended). But the terminal forcing-and upper shunts-are of switch and turn..the The tenplated are of that..'change afoot'. In the oceanic/atmospheric feature. Late..YES.. of value..also yes. Most mods/notes have atm a polar maritime switch to note what has been looked 4..but there..THE CATCH IS..as in the 2m temp conts which fail/and have failed via data stackes for months. The pac ridge/annom has designed the nor hem weather/climate and governed..for 10/12 weeks.. But now relaxes the overall format..and folds into a polar hole/annom..of massive feature.as a present presented via models.. The missed notion of many/-including model conscience-is thats is that..the miss dynamic of both coupling and strat/trop bigger..and better..ie 1 cant couple..without the other giving way!.. Sadly for spring weather fans they have both now missed eachother..and left upper dynamics in a soggy mess And like a chlid painting a picture with toffee in 100c heat..its ending up an unpredict..mess.. But that mess has 2 be cleaned up..and b4 it is has 2 work out the best evaluation of such...and some1 has too suffer... So if you like a cold..very late WINTER..early spring shock...then you are the picked janitor.. The polar V will split and down on the already un-effect latts.. 'Lets say the UK'.. HMM undoubtadly. Its the most lagged..yet already gone RESPONCE in likely history... But the worst of winter for our shores..will come off- the back of some notable late winter warmth.. Dont ya just love it!!??

I suspect that the issue if it exists with the FV3 is of shorter range prediction of snow, rather than the longer range predictions that we are generally interested in. And we all know that GFS predictions (of all model variants) of precipitation are pretty useless in the UK. That's what the higher resolution models are for. Good to see the return of the one thread going forward into spring and summer. The hunt for cold thread seemed of late to me to be a mix half decent posts and half those who have offered no analysis at all through winter being wise after the event, after a disappointing season for many though not all.

Truly warms the cockles - as Sidney would say

I wouldn't mind nor bet against a very cold March spell at some point. What that might do to nature after the potential 20C days this weekend is anyone's guess.

Loved by many in here, the GFS-FV3, has been awful this Winter in modelling non-cold events. If it had been correct half the time we would be six-foot under most of mid-Winter. I was fearful without the old GFS, the ECM and new GFS coming up with those winter wonderland charts, it would be a nightmare getting any sense on this forum. At least we know the old GFS and we can extrapolate its nuances, and with ECM, the opposite side of the coin, we could get some clarity. But the two biggest models cold ramping would have been a monster! Hopefully, they correct it.

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational it's a prolonged predominantly settled / anticyclonic outlook extending into early march, daily temperatures above / well above average for most of the run but returning closer to average early next month..also becoming a bit more unsettled with atlantic frontal systems eventually making inroads but slowing down and disrupting due to a large blocking high further east.

What fresh hell is this?? From our actual Met Office... The proper one.. in Exeter. 'Gusts will be strong enough to make small trees sway, but it shoudn't blow you over' Jesus...

Even deep Into FI, and the little mild wedge is trying to stick its finger up to us!! Much more interesting going into March I feel! Throw in the towel? Not ruddy likely.

Hi there split? ECM going for it too. March colder than any of winter months? Definitely looks like a shake up.

To all those who have thrown in the towel: There is still the rest of Feb, all of March and a bit of April when it can still snow so it's still far too early to throw it in, even if the winter won't have snow. Sure, throw in the towel on the winter, it's very unlikely that anything will happen now but there's still so much time. I've had my snow this year though! It's like an apology for all those times when those south of the M4 missed out.

Pleased to see at least some glimmers of hope for coldies on the 00z runs longer term..better that than another 384 hours + of mild benign! The lack of rain is also a concern with a drier than average winter which could cause problems if it continues through spring into summer!

Rapid changes overnight on the ECM. This looks very like the models responding to the movement of the MJO . Phase 7 takes high pressure further north , phase 8 should see heights dropping to the south . All the more remarkable because last nights ECM ensembles showed nothing in the way of cold for the next ten days . The MJO was really the only thing keeping us interested to see if that could change the pattern. We need a few more runs to see if this response is too quick or whether we have a chance of something wintry early March .

Its about time the EC46 received its p45 and did one

Ian didn’t buy into the idea of a front loaded winter in 2016/17, either, going against most other forecasts (including the metoffice) and was correct to do so. His forecast for last winter was pretty good, too.

The nwp ops are headed to a possible NH split around day 10/12. If this begins to gain traction, then all bets are off as the month turns ........

Whenever someone praises Ian you come out of the woodwork to criticise him and you have done this year after year! His forecast was much better than net weather’s or any other that I have seen. His call on the SSW is commendable because he was the only one who said that it wouldn’t lead to cold weather for the UK. At the time, the ECM long range was showing northern blocking galore and easterlies for the UK. Even the met office kept predicting easterlies and northeasterlies since late December, only to gradually push them back and eventually cancel them altogether.

still more accurate than anyone else which doesn't say much, but he was spot on about the SSW. I'm comparing him to net weather winter forecasts and others with their front-loaded backloaded heavy loaded winter lol. October Fog Index was best

Most accurate winter forecaster on the site, so that would be a good idea.