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Some stella tastic -AOs this morning-

The negative comments in here are exhausting and wearing my soul away. THIS IS A “Hunt for Cold” thread please please please I plea to you, if you can’t find any cold then don’t post. I can’t be the only one who doesn’t want read about south westerly winds in here or all of the other guff being written All day today it’s felt like I’ve read about flat pancakes and lack of amplified ridges. Surly all of that can go in the other thread.

Lie being the by-word.. If you have solid evidence that a cold spell-late feb early march is way off the mark.. Then i anticipate your analysis....keenly. Also your comments above are down rite rude!!!!

Nice. For any of you tweet/twitter fans.. Well worth popping on to micheal ventrice site..for hes latest tweet!!! @-NAO.. its all falling into place now.... And so it should!! @backloaded @i'll keep this drum banging!!

GFS Para suggesting snowfall on Sunday across Midlands/N Wales/ E Anglia. Might cheer up Victor Meldrew i.e Shaky!

Still a fairly decent signal from ensemble z500 means for Scandi high day 10, though EPS mean signal stronger than GEFS. Taking 00z GEFS z500 mean into the extended and we can see the Scandi height anomaly retogressing towards Griceland area: This fits in with the standardised MJO composite progression from phase 6 through to phase 8, with height rises over UK (P6) then Scandi high (P7) then Greenland/Iceland high (P8) - MJO progress such as we are seeing advertised by the model RMM plots, GFS most amplified with this, but generally seems to have a better handle on MJO phase 6-8 With the SSW impact perhaps waning, we may perhaps see less interference with the MJO impact on poleward wave driving However, the ENSO base state does have an impact on the kind of pattern response to MJO cycle. Recent ENSO update from NOAA CPC suggests ENSO neutral rather than El Nino: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ENSO neutral with MJO phase 7 and 8 brings this in the composite: P7 P8 ENSO El Nino this with P7 and 8 P7P8 ... so the models certainly lurching more towards a neutral ENSO MJO 7-8 response. However, the patterns often never play out exactly to the composites and this has been a strange year with regards to muted pattern response to the MJO cycles through 'colder' phases, likely to do with the SSW interference and there's no guarantee that the SSW may not still be impacting the pattern in next few weeks. So we'll see!

Some decent objective discussion going on but also a lot of total tosh. It’s the NW hunt for cold model thread, I’ve gotten used to it by now but still... Anyway, for my sins, I am of the firm belief February will produce later in in the month. The most confident I’ve been all winter in fact. IMO opinion the descending W-QBO has been, and is, working against us and stifled what probably would’ve been a memorable winter. Forget this poor op here, that poor op there, even the latest 12z suite, honestly, big flipping deal. It will change. Get better. Get worse. And get better again etc etc. Shock horror, newsflash, it’s WHY it’s called the rollercoaster There is no trend to end winter on a mild note. There is no trend towards raging zonality. Just genuine potential for a good cold spell towards the end of month. Laugh all you like about the dreaded ‘potential’ word but you won’t get a cold spell without it. Fact. Deal with it. Nick F posted the two most most pertinent charts earlier. Just because the SSW has been and gone does not mean there is no hope. The polar opposite in fact. The effects are still likely to be very much present in the weeks to come. A big improvement showing here from the last one I saw. OK so the MJO hasnt been of much help so far with regards atmospheric coupling but when and if (and it is, clearly, a very BIG if) you get amplification in early-mid February in P7/8 like the GEFS is showing, expect that to be the overriding force by the last part of Feb. Obviously, yes, it needs to verify and the ECM (whilst still going into 7 and 8 ) is less enthusiastic... But... it did nail the Feb 2018 monster amplification over the ECM. Smashed it actually. And we all know what that helped lead to. So let’s just see what transpires. And even (a probably more likely) watered down version, could still pay dividends. The vortex is naturally gradually on the wane at this time of year, even with the WQBO no doubt helping to ‘fuel’ it. But often things end well when there seems, which there does to my mind, to be almost an equal chance of an initial Scandi high 33.33% over an initial Mid Atlantic/GL High 33.33% (with the other 33.34% being something else a little less pleasing! )

Broad agreement on the 12Z runs at 144 hrs of high pressure ridging Northeast and low pressure moving into the Southeast Most lead to an Easterly of some description. Uppers not particularly cold as modelled, but that can change Some modelling transferring heights to the Northwest after this period. Quite a positive outlook for cold towards the last third of Feb, I'd say. ECM UKMO GFS FV3

The Thames at Southend did indeed freeze. I was but a nipper, but remember walking out on the Thames at high tide. We had a lot more than 30cm of snow as well. Here’s a video from my area at the time -

Models gearing up for some epic cold charts evolving as we head into the latter third of Feb. Im waxing my sledge runners :0

Icon less amplified early on which then results in a slightly flatter pattern at 120 hours!!still dont think anything is going to come from this!!evrrything shall just flatten out closer to the time like it has all winter!!

Pretty good overall agreement on the pattern . A brief northerly then the ridge close to the UK, before extending further ne . Where the high goes as in how far north east and the level of cold into the UK is still open to question . The easterly may however just be a stepping stone towards eventually pressure building to the nw or north.

Great end to the Gfs 00z operational...what a finale to winter this would produce!!❄ Nice to see the Ecm is still going strong with the blocking signal..powerful scandi high

True but you are allowed to state if things have gone backwards, regardless if it is just one suite or not, i agree the people who only post when things are looking bad, yes, this is not the thread for them, but cold fans who don't necessarily buy into a bitter spell that others are ramping is fine, its no good people calling out 'rudeness' when one person is mocking but when others are mocking saying nothing about it. My concerns are as follows 1) The 12z suite has downgraded. 2) We are nearing the end winter so not huge time left although i continue to chase right into March TBF 3) If the Easterly does occur, it is unlikely to contain bitter uppers as there is no snap off siberian PV effect as in other Easterlies. Now for the positives. 1) Even on the 12z GEFS, there was a hint of retrogression but right at the end, there were stronger signals and earlier on the 0z. 2) Even if we don't get the bitter Easterly, we could still end up with a battleground as the Atlantic pushes in as long as we can have some cold surface temps and if we dont and any fronts are held at bay that could be good for the retrogression attempt.

People get slated in here for clutching at straws - well at least they are hunting for cold! No matter how bleak it may appear for coldies, during the winter there will always be a crumb to chase which is a heck of a lot more appropriate to this thread then just typing that the next month will be mild/zonal etc. So it's not about being lied to, it's ( to use a football analogy) about not raving about how wonderful man utd are on a liverpool fan site.

Today's GFS RMM plot gone a bit berserk with the MJO amplitude through phase 8, but the 12z GFS operational running with MJO P6-8 in February reanalysis composite script of heights building N over UK (phase 6), then Scandi ridge building (phase 7) then retrogression of ridge toward Greenland (phase 8 ) The GFS was suggesting zonal winds in the upper stratosphere pushing down and coupling with troposphere later this month, but that seems to have disappeared on today's NAM plot with the easterly winds still dripping down through the troposphere after 20/02. So perhaps we have not seen the back of the SSW reversal impacting the troposphere and indeed it may continue to impact on tropospheric circulations for a while in conjunction with the MJO colder phase wave amplification and retrogression. Some similarities since beginning of the year to perhaps Jan/Feb 2013 following the SSW in early Jan that year, in 2013 there were bouts of cold, though not prolonged, with some milder episodes, it took 2 months for the full effects of the SSW to impact Europe with deep cold from the east - which resulted in an historically cold March. Cold may come sooner this time, but perhaps not on the severity of March 2018 or March 2013.

You can almost see the backstop down the irish sea on this chart.

Hi was this Jan 1987 love to see that again the Isle of Sheppey was the same as you can see

Stonking ECM MJO Forecast this morning. Pretty much all the members going for a decent amplitude phase 8, some excessively so....

Meanwhile in 1963, I was in rural Somerset - a mere Laddie. 6 weeks off school and developed a fanaticism for snow ever since!

Here we go again, it's all over based on these few runs, yesterday it was all on, history tells us nothing, like I pointed out earlier models are struggling big time. The funny thing is if the models show much better runs tomorrow will it be game on again. I fail to see how models at day 10 and beyond spell game over.

The GEFS 12z are a massive downgrade, flat as a pancake.

Some of the terms being used are very misleading ("flat", "no amplification" etc). Nothing could be further from the truth...

Well the clusters are interesting to say the least. Interesting possible slider scenario at T216 on cluster 1. Then, into the D11-D15 period, signs of retrogression to the north. Height anomalies over Europe, while not optimal for cold, are no longer positive. The "winter's over" party may need to be rescheduled!

Looking at the ECM ensemble members this morning confirmed what I suspected - if we end up in a flow east of south by D10, then the uppers can be binned to some extent in relation to surface temperatures. By 16th February, the op and control run both have midday temperatures between 0C and 4C at very best (slightly higher in far SW), and all other runs in a similar vein also struggle to get much of the country far above freezing. As to the overall synoptic pattern, the runs producing a continental flow in the D7-D10 (ala ECM op) are slightly in the majority but it's not done and dusted, there will be a sizeable cluster than flatten the pattern earlier. But the frontrunner right now for mid month is the below average (albeit dry) option. Further on, scatter increases, so blocks to the east are not necessary stable ones - However, a number of members are trying to undercut the High, like @bluearmypicked up on last night. There's a number of ways things could go, and the retrogression option is clearly there. Very few runs build a Feb 2018 style cold pool to the east though, so more "upgrades" will be needed for a true beasterly. All in all, probably as good a position that coldies could have hoped for 48 hours ago.

Thanks for the input.,

D12 - top two clusters (that's 80% of the runs) so so close to a snowy freeze - still wriggle room enough to avoid it though.

Sorry gang ,i think iv reposted my last post ,but regards tonights charts ,things could be falling right for us its just very very slow and painfull ,just imagine a pot of snow at the end , worth the wait , cheers all .

Just spotted this little lot ready to leave.. @winters over @mild crew

Never mind they, just one will do.

Edinburgh is still left out from all the snow and cold, even on an imaginary chart

I’d say as it’s the hunt for cold thread that to me means discuss potential cold coming up or at least be on the look out for cold, if it’s not coming or even looking remotely possible then surely nobody would post in the COLD THREAD or am I completely wrong? There is the potential for cold again next week hence the interest in here, whether it’s another garden path incident is irrelevant at this stage

Yes, sensible post. We really can't see much further forward than this from the op runs at the moment, uncertainties quickly creep in in synoptics like this set up, given the trajectory of the MJO in particular, and how it affects us, and there's a lag with this too, so how that factors. All getting complicated for us and for the models, so while I'd not bet my house on a run that shows Narnia at T360, I wouldn't get worried at all if there were 'winter over' runs at that timescale. A winter dominated by theories and uncertainties, and disappointments for some. Still some more dice to fall before we move on to spring and summer, roll on for a bit more, winter....

Being greedy, but can this shift south like last time...

That’s two gefs runs which show a greeny block as we enter the final week of feb .......almost a year to the day that we saw it doing the same thing ........

Calm down dear, its only one run

Excellent point Nick which members should take note of. Should the E,ly develop which at the moment is looking likely. The depth of cold although subject to change is unlikely to bring what many seek on here. I feel we're going to need to see this high back W into the Greenland/Iceland location and bring in those bitter N/NE,lys. The GFS Para is a good example of this.

Eps/gefs.. 500 geo-pots.. Id say reprasentavie of many clusters!. And a certain big starting point for desirable blocking... Forcing and placements begin 2 take the upper hands... @my punt..= the most notable spell of winter is awaiting in the wings....keep watching...

Perhaps, but look back over the days on here, one day the cold is being played up, the next it's being played down, the met are still giving us a signal on much colder weather final third of this month. And any experienced forecaster will always tell you its a mistake to over analize every single model run

Yes and for those who doubt the continent won't be cold enough come the time we drag in an Easterly feed. Feb 13th last year Then Feb 28th with Asian PV lobe drained

The ECM mean peaks with a low of around -4 on the 00z 12z was around -6. The 00z mean is a bit higher from the 11th onwards compared with the 12z yesterday 00z 12z

UKMO extended looks to have the high a bit further south than ECM at t168 ECM The closest match to UKMO on the angle these charts provide is GEM

Well I said we should be concerned if there weren’t any by yesterday evening I think the model is thrashing about a bit around a theme ......where will the high anomoly end up in two weeks...... starting to see the griceland region as a decent shout

The NH 500mb and the surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image The wave duly brought some wet and windy weather last might but much of the rain has now cleared leaving ongoing wintry showers in the south west which will later spread to all western areas. There could well be hail and thunder in the mix, But the rain hasn't cleared everywhere and a band will continue to move east over northern areas through the morning with perhaps some snow down to lower levels in Scotland. And the wind will abate during the day A very brief respite follows but the rapidly deepening low is approaching from the west and rain from the associated warm front will effect south west regions by 2000 this evening and, along with freshening winds. will track north east through the night introducing much warmer air in the warm sector at the same time. By midday Friday the low is 956mb close to N/ Ireland and the cold front is crossing the country with a band of heavy rain. But the wind is now a major factor withvery strong winds in all areas but particularly down western coasts. The front will clear to the east during the afternoon leaving frequent wintry showers in it's wake. more especially over Scotland. The low continues to track northeast through Saturday evening and slowly filling leaving the UK in a squally unstable westerly airstream with frequent showers, again with the risk of hail and thunder in the mix. Still very windy but slowly easing from the south But here there is likely to be further rain as another wave has formed to the south west and has tracked north east to be 992mb in The Channel by midnight Sunday Through Sunday the upper trough slowly moves east and the surface wind veers northerly,thus much looker with still some wintry showers As the trough continues to move away to SE a ridge builds over the UK portending a quiet, dry and sunny day on Monday albeit after a frost start

I'll give it a go. Still learning how to read them and, albeit FI, I think we would like this to verify. (Or not?)

Anyway, it's absolutely worthless posting Europe-only charts when the pattern will be determined across the NH as a whole. No route to cold from here:

Blimey that UKMO chart is absolutely HIDEOUS, has to be the worst chart of winter so far! Absolutely shocking. At least things can only get better from that, surely? (And DONT call me Shirley)

Yup and to make matters worse that gap in accumulations is right over my house in the east midlands!!ridiculous really!!good try though my friend!!

The 00z FV3 was amazingly similar to the 00z ECM out to day 10, and went on to retrogress the block via an undercut from the Atlantic and then set up a major unstable cold import from the NE for the final 5 days of Feb. It's actually a textbook match to what's historically been associated with the MJO crossing P7-P8 at high amplitude in Feb. It's worth noting that P8 shows good correlation to a strongly negative AO-NAO joint pattern regardless of whether there's a downwelling reversal from a SSW. Only downwelling zonal winds ahead of a reversal seem able to counter it - as we were unfortunate enough to see with respect to the middle two weeks of Jan just gone.

Recently we looked like we were staring down the barrel at a prolonged predominantly mild zonal outlook but the Ecm 00z op / mean are still favouring the scandi high block in the mid range..it goes without saying that I'm praying for a very strong finish to this winter..out like a lion hopefully..I'm seeing potential building blocks!! !!