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Can we put to bed this guff regarding winter . Winter is Dec, Jan, Feb . Its a nonsense to call winter ending March 21 st . The last time I looked this is a weather site not an astronomy one . To use the logic that winter ends 21 March then means winter starts Dec 21 st. The US for some bizarre reason peddles this nonsense but thankfully UK forecasters haven’t followed this . Moan over !

Well the cold continues up here in the Highlands this being our 21st continuous day of snow cover so plenty of cold air still about. Looking through the latest charts I don't think it would take much of a swing for cold to return further south too.

Coldies use the alternative calendar, which has winter from November 1st until May 1st, or slightly shorter if they’ve had good mental health over the previous 12 months.

Last Thursday / Yesterday / today I think we get it now, maybe a thread ban until you can learn to post on topic and stop spamming the thread? @Mods

We’ve been here before during February. The models look pants and then we see a change after mid month . The thing with the PV is it doesn’t matter if it looks angry it’s where it’s located that’s important . Many easterlies initially come with that angry looking PV but it elongates in a way to allow a ridge to get ne . We’ve seen many decent wintry spells in the latter half of February . So for the timebeing any towel throwing is premature .

It’s been a winter of frustration but it’s not over yet MJO forecasts have failed so far think MJO went into phase 7 briefly early January current MJO forecasts seem very good, a slow crawl through phase 7, into phase 8. With El Niño hopefully there is more harmonisation, late winter with these background signals. I don’t think anyone should rule out HLB in second half of Feb. A better time for it to come I’d say, a more relaxed time on here too as others call it a day, much like this time last year until they come back in mass..

Hmm! One more easterly tease likely over the next few days . Oh well if we must !

As per usual thought the world had ended reading the thread.... Then had a look myself at 144z GEFS mean ,ECM, UKMO. Not bad

Duly noted is the move from the ICON 06z to the UKMO solution at 120 with the shallow atlantic trough moving SE past Ireland & a more amplified solution towards Greenland -

I’m Spartacus .........

if you say so ….. And yes, I know they are not reliable but simply passing on what the model run shows ....

That looks more like Donald Trump's lie detector test.

Well a third left but half of that third has been discounted by most here cos they can’t see a snow event on gfs op !

I can no-longer cope with these model-runs, so I'm going to finish myself off, according to the Samurai code: I'm going to commit origami; I'm going to fold myself into multi-dimensional spacetime and disappear up my eleven weebles!

Thanks but its not narrow minded . Meteorological winter is Dec , Jan and Feb. All winter records cover those months . I’m really not sure why this new view of winter has taken off in here !

Beautiful frosty morning in the Lomonds Everyone else seems to be down in the fog

The 00z UKMO teases us again, next Monday, 11th Feb.: Regards, Tom.

No disrespect but i think people put to much stock these kinds of things.. The number of times he has been wrong have been many. Its guesswork, ok, at a stretch, educated guesswork.

Hi gang ,i am around , i have been lurking ,reading all the posts etc .well in my book still time for snowfalls and plenty of action weather .Just a thought but could we see Erik this weekend ,i had an uncle eric . . Thanks to all the posters who keep this forum alive ,Best forum around .cheers gang ,sausage sandwiches brown sauce and a STElla to all the Cold Hunters .

The GEFS certainly show a change from the 00 hrs runs . A few colder solutions appearing around the 13 and 14 which weren’t there earlier and more from the 15 th. The depth of cold to the north is pretty good , if we could just squeeze out a bit more amplitude between day 5 and 6 then that could get a bit more interesting . PS a request to the mods . Now that it’s a lot quieter any chance of bringing back the member names at the bottom of the page . It’s always a bit weird without them .

Et voila: le petit stonkeur; le stonkeurette; le petit toppleur...Sacre bleu! Zut! Merde!

Can you please stop giving out abuse to people you know nothing about? Gav's a great guy who offers his interpretations of the charts. If people don't like those interpretations then I suggest they watch something else instead?

Me 4 one am happy with this evenings outs...lots of water to flow..and steps (however small in the correct-direct).. This chart could look quite different in nxt 1/3 days.. As the angle-align of height placement begins resolve. And even 4 once with large lobe forcing of aid!!! And- a reasonable pool out east.... We are cranking slowly!

I see people saying that they are going to throw the towel in, not just Don, but many. No one is throwing the towel in, it’s just frustration that no cold is overly visible. Us coldies start looking at output from late November “just in case” and we keep looking until the season is dead which during any part of Feb it isn’t. Throwing the towel in is really saying, I don’t see much in the way of cold but it’s to early to leave just yet. When people are done then they will be saying see you next November. FWIW we still have 5 weeks of opportunity to get cold in. Although of course none may arrive but coldies will keep looking just in case.

Gavs videos were forecasting cold throughout late January. I fail to see your point. He is as much at the mercy of the effects of the SSW as anyone

The 6z GEFS suite has several very blocked perturbs at the @rse-end of the run, for what it's worth: https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=11&ech=384 Normally I wouldn't bother posting them, but this is still the cold-hunting thread, winter still has at least 4 weeks to run, and why the hell not.

IMO, winter ends as and when Mother Nature says it does, and not when humanity dictates...What was March 2013, if not an extension to winter? I prefer to leave the answer, to that question, to flora and fauna; calendar definitions can go whistle... One thing is certain, however: the winter of 2019 is most certainly not over yet...ask Michael!

The clock can tick all it likes lol, with snow events outside of meteorological winter in recent years there's no need for tears just yet.

The Met O can call it what it likes, 21st of March in my book.

I think this is absolutely the type of post that we want to see in here. This being the Cold Hunt thread - and at times where cold hunting is in short supply it's perfectly acceptable I think to post charts like this as a bit of straw clutching - As you say maybe nothing and most likely nothing but I've known countless times during Winters where all we have is countless raging Westerlies after SW after W after SWly winds ... HP next week certainly is off interest in terms of where it could end up.

Them @the express viewing the e-mail Now which 1 will it be ??????

Interesting after all .....

Good Evening all Alas I am writing this with a sinking feeling in my heart. Just seems that months of waiting for winter to arrive and sitting here writing this has been a kick in the teeth. With a great sigh of sadness to be honest I think we have had our lolly. We are just waving the left over stick in frustration like a wand hoping that some miracle grace comes to our rescue on the few weeks that are left. to be honest and looking at the current output I cannot see anything that will lift the mood. This winter was not meant to be despite having some good outside factors. We have still a couple of weeks left and maybe something will change in our favour. Even if it does not I know we will wait for next winter still living in hope. Who knows one winter I may be here writing something different. the search for our winter wonderland will always continue wishing you all a great evening regards

OK let's put the topic to bed. Astronomical seasons are relative to the position of the earth's orbit around the sun, taking into account equinoxes and soltices. Meteorological seasons are instead based on the annual temperature cycles measuring the meteorological state and coinciding gregorian calender to determine a clear transition and equal length season's! So let's all agree to have a different view on this and move on folks!

I think we should just treat Background Signals, the same way we treat everything else...Initialise them!?

Putting it mildly, this is not the finale to winter i'm hoping for from the Gfs 6z operational although it would feel very pleasant all the same..bl**dy background signals!!!

And for those of us who never did French at school!! There you go, the little stonker, the little toppler, damn it, heck, s--t,

I think the outlook is becoming a little clearer to me. Firstly increasing support that some may well see snowfall around 12th Feb as the low clears to the E. The GEFS show this nicely with the dip towards -7C in my location. The tricky part is beyond as the UKMO continues to be the best output. My thoughts are something inbetween the UKMO and ECM. I do not believe an E,ly will develop as this is where the UKMO +168 is heading. I neither believe in the position of the high by the ECM. So no E,ly or S,ly but instead high pressure being centred directly over the UK.

Well, while that was a decent cauld spell for many, it was utterly pants snaw-wise for me here in the E. Borders. Ye ken things are bad when you've nae snaw, yet even @101_North is daein a wee dance in some. Anyway, when the last chance passed I went and booked another week in the Alps fir masel skiing. No way I'm ending this winter wioot another proper snaw fix. Totally broke now, but what the hell, you only live once. Cauld and frosty this morning, then damp muck fir days tae come.

UKMO settling down at D7 ECM at the same time has the high further south allowing milder air to work in

yes for all its lack of snow the car seems to have been permanently frosted over this winter. This winter may well go down as the heart break one.... On Sunday the young lad 5 years old got all his snow gear on and the snow shovel and declared he was building an igloo.... was barely shovelling dor 5 mins before the snow stopped and started to melt... he played in it and stockpiled it until it pretty much all melted about 2 hours later. It does not take much for kids to have a ball in snow but ee cant even get the 3 or 4cm for a day that would satisfy them. So lots of frost but no snow of note so still praying for the one big snowfall to let kids be kids and me join them

Fred had a bad night last night on his way out

Fixed dates mean Jack IMO so not really fussed what others call it, to me its about the period which you can get snow realistically and the period you can't.

As Blue alluded to the GEFS are trending to where we thought we should be a month late. The predicted MLB over us could be the catalyst which shuts the Canadian Lobe up...….finally

Morning all, 00z ECM and UKMO singing from the same hymn sheet, for Mon11th Feb. 00z ECM Mon.11th Feb (t144) 00z UKMO Mon.11th Feb.(t144) When I spoke to Ian Currie on Sunday, he was of the opinion that we could see some transient Northerlies, from around mid-February. Or to give that a Daily Express type headline, "A Dwarf From The North"!!. These transient Northerlies coming off the back of West to East tracking Lows, in association with a mid-Atlantic. As I stated on Sunday, Ian wasn't expecting any strong Northern blocking, this month. But Mr.Currie did think we might see some retrogressing of heights towards Greenland come March with the possibility of a more substantive Northerly being the result. I'd like to order one of these, please: 4th MARCH 1970 The following quote, taken from Trevor Harley's excellent, The British Weather, website. " March - 1970. Very cold (3.7C CET) overall. The month started with northerly winds. There was a major and unexpected snowfall on the 4th, heavy enough to bring down power lines in Kent. Some parts of Northants. and Beds. reported about 40 cms of snow, with the deepest being nearly 48cm near Northampton. Snow fell heavily for twelve hours across a wide part of the south. In parts of the north southeast (if you see what I mean) and the East Midlands it was the heaviest snowfall since 1947. Near Bedford 36 cms of snow lay after 24 hours of snow. The snow was followed by some low temperatures in a northerly air flow, with -15C recorded. The snow covered lasted for more than a week, in sunshine." I experienced this surprise snowfall, when I was 14 and lived in Bromley, Kent/S.E.London border. March is a good time of year for a wintry, snowy Northerly. The waters surrounding the U.K., are at their coldest at this time of year and an air mass from that direction, suffers less from modification. Regards, Tom.

Thank God!!!!!!!

Outlook - unsettled but less cold The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 surface chart A varied start to the day in different regions of the UK, With the front still lingering the south east continuing mild with low cloud. mist and patchy drizzle whilst in the north east frost and freezing fog in places. And frost is in fact pretty general apart from the far south west where it is becoming increasingly cloudy as the next frontal system approaches from the west. And by 0900 patchy rain will be effecting N. Ireland, Wales and the south west which will spread east during the day, introducing milder air as it goes. albeit the north east and Scotland remaining quite chilly until later. Becoming quite windy The frontal system will continue to track east this evening and overnight bringing more rain and strong winds to most areas but clearing from the north west from around midnight with wintry showers developing over western Scotland The wintry showers will continue over N. Ireland and Scotland on Wednesday and although England and Wales will be mild with sunny intervals there is a slight complication. The cold front is still trailing back near the south coast and is starting to wave a tad and a patch of moderate rain runs north east through the morning. Overnight Wednesday and through Thursday the deep low associated with the frontal system continues to drift and fill to the north west of the UK leaving the latter in a breezy westerly resulting in frequent showers along western regions which could well be wintry in the north west courtesy of the odd trough embedded in the flow. Temps still generally a tad above average, And to note the next trough has appeared on the scene in the western atlantic and starting deepen quite rapidly And deepen it does with some explosive cyclogenesis and by 1200 Friday is 958mb west of Ireland bringing gales and rain to the UK as the associated fronts sweep across the country. On Saturday there is a complex area of low pressure residing over the eastern Atlantic and the UK with the latter in a strong westerly wind with frequent heavy showers. Temp varying around the average

Dreadful icon run with the high slipping south and low pressure over the top, means mild and a million miles away from what the ec46 ANOMALIES were showing for this time, of anyone still thinks it has performed well, then they must be. employees of the European Centre

We will know more after another 10 years or so, and with ongoing solar impacts to assess....but I think there is something to the idea that less arctic ice will encourage more autumnal blocking, and this in turn will stress the vortex more readily via wave breaking. What we also know without any doubt, however, is that regardless of global warming a continental feed will continue to provide enough cold for snow for a long long time to come (look at the snow that happened last week on the back of a really rather pathetic continental infeed of uppers over France that really weren't that cold...) and that for high ground polar NWs will continue to give snow. There is nothing to me in the GW argument to suggest that snow will disappear from our weather. Whether global warming is going to provide a boost to the sub tropical high pressure belts as the models forecast is another issue entirely. If the sub tropical highs shift north then the storm track will move north also, and that means a more difficult time to get onto the cold side of the jet. We will need to see if this happens - don't suppose we will really have an answer in our own lifetimes to this....but there was a debate on twitter somewhere a few weeks ago about this, and whether increased cold outflow from more vortex disruption would overcome sub tropical belt movement or not. We simply don't know. The influence of the QBO is fairly well known in terms of an eQBO opening up an easier window for a meriodional storm track, but what I am a lot less certain of is the impacts of eQBO and wQBO on the progress of any downwelling vortex event. I'm sure the info is out there - I just haven't read it yet....but on a sample size of 1 (2019) I'm left assuming that a wQBO resists successful downwelling through some kind of linked process whereas eQBO assists it (2018). It also depends a bit of the type of vortex event that is going on - a displacement event is less beneficial anyway, and I've read contradictory interpretations of exactly what sort of event we have had this year. Will all come out in the wash. There is a final area of investigation that seems underdone in my opinion, and that is the impact of the tropical atlantic. We spend all our time understandably focusing on the key areas of convection in the pacific, and the ENSO state as a broad context for global weather, but I'm left wondering if there are impacts in the tropical atlantic that are not analysed enough. Clearly the tropical atlantic does not provide the same degree of convection energy - but there are still hurricanes that spawn and an ocean temperature gradient that must have an impact. In the close season I'm going to see what papers might be out there. It's all a learning curve. Writing may nearly be on the wall for this winter if we don't get a block in place soon after mid month....and then while some of you lot start dreaming of summer (which I hate) I'll hunker down for a bit, and wait for September to come around when the nuggets of the next winter season may begin to be seen. 2 or 3 years ago I marked 2019/20 down as the year that might properly deliver the goods based purely on likely QBO phase and properly low solar impacts.....so we will see!