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Showing most liked content on 10/01/19 in all areas

  1. 36 likes
    Can we open an IMBY 1 please.. The very annoying...we'll get snow at my house nonsense has already begun!.. C, mon- its gonna come down 2 microscale...as per on our maritime island..with the slightest tweak/adjust..having massive ramifications.... Gets my goat something bad!!!!
  2. 28 likes
    The fact that UKMO cold starts @144 ( on the 12z ) is already now T132/138- The ECM is probably slower-by about 6 hours. The credible forecast is the cold spell to start from that day ( Weds ) - & as time progresses the cold works its way further south -the slider is the biggest risk of initial snow but also poses a problem in terms of how fast east a temporary flow from the atlantic slides in- So the blended forecast which is credible given its derived from the UKMO/EC blend is exactly above - The GFS whilst a bit flatter has suddenly moved to the euros - which invariably means it will follow them fully in the next 24/48 hours... As it stands then - cold arriving from the now 138, snow potential about 150 onwards..
  3. 19 likes
    Been out most of the eve- missed all the ECM fun- Great 168 Mean tonight
  4. 18 likes
    Moving on briefly from the short range. By midweek a much more fluid west > east pattern emerging with the phasing of the colder/warmer air and frontal systems traversing the country. Thus windy at times with periods of rain, snow on norther hills,interspersed with sunny intervals
  5. 16 likes
    You're not annoying mate most of us in here are snow nuts, that's why we come back day after day, hour after hour. Let's hope we ALL get what we're after soon enough.
  6. 15 likes
    Yes the anomaly charts ( I use) are still not totally of the same 'mind' so to speak, two with mid Atlantic ridging into a trough over Europe the third still with a flatter Atlantic flow. So still not able, out to 10 days, to show a definite change of pattern. The chart 8-14 NOAA, shown by k, does suggest this is more likely beyond day 10, the second day/evening it has shown this. So some increasing confidence that a more meridional pattern is going to be getting established by 2 weeks from now.
  7. 9 likes
    So there you have it you have the UKMO FV3 ICON GEM vs GFS place your odds who's right i nearly bet my house on this one..
  8. 8 likes
  9. 8 likes
    FWIW (and it isn’t at that range) I don’t think you could say that the south and se would avoid a decent snow event from that chart (especially given the one that follows )
  10. 8 likes
    In recent weeks their outlook has actually been remarkably consistent but that’s for another thread, fact is they would never make the comments they have unless there was a strong signal. Making confident predictions like that for 10-15 days out is fraught with danger as it is, and given the current conditions, background signals and uncertainty regarding the SSW, along with the amount of ensembles showing interest to me it’s nonsense to say nothing ‘exciting’ within a 10-15 day period, but that’s just me.
  11. 7 likes
    Gem control shows after the sliders heights building towards greenland
  12. 7 likes
    Well called sir! - snow event awaits at 216
  13. 7 likes
    There is a ridge ahead of the push from the Canadian vortex days 9/11 the bigger that ridge the more chance that this push can be disrupted a little west to bring some of the uk into slider territory
  14. 7 likes
    ICON/UKMO & ECM all pretty well clustered this morning- thats good enough for me. ECM very cold 168>192...
  15. 6 likes
    P6 indicates what could happen if those NW > SE moving lows pull in enough colder air from the NE / E , UK could need digging out if all falls into place but as I said earlier lots more runs before exact details will update in a minute when they have finished rolling out / if any more GEFS catch my eye
  16. 6 likes
    @ICE COLD ext EPS broadly similar to previous suites. Slightly less ridging into Greenland days 10-13 but still all good. Cold anomaly quite stark Days 10-15 (850 anomalies of -3 to -4).
  17. 6 likes
    Day time temperatures range from 0-3 degrees snow level at around 400ft according to the ecm so his temperatures are way over however too far out to be splitting hairs
  18. 6 likes
    15th Jan or just a tad after was the shouted date and here we go
  19. 6 likes
    Obviously it’s way in FI but if that Para came off I think it would be a pretty historic event , definitely memorable that’s for sure. Many snow lovers would sacrifice a prolonged cold spell to experience several days of that run I’m sure
  20. 6 likes
    Sorry but you are cherry picking, no uppers of -4 on a northwest flow will bring snow to anyone apart from Scottish ski resorts, and the last chart is looks like a fleeting northerly, Thankfully we are becoming primed for wedges of heights to develop north of the diving jet into Europe, hence the 240hr ecm at low and behold day 10. Next week is cool zonality, after that who knows which is where we expect things to get interesting.
  21. 6 likes
  22. 5 likes
    We’re good in the hood . Not really ecspecting to much at the end of next week . It’s what follows after .
  23. 5 likes
  24. 5 likes
    ICON-further up'ing that pac/MLB(Atlantic) anti. Reiteration-' likely split sector!!. With again the mass canadian lobe being vastly overhyped via raws. . See where all 12z drop and drive the scenario!!!
  25. 5 likes
    I will have a butchers today! Wetterzentrale day 10 Ecm shows the green steering wedge SE of Greenland...
  26. 4 likes
    If it’s going to be as cold as we would like (hope for) they won’t be lakes anymore just ice skating rinks
  27. 4 likes
    Meanwhile, pub run trickling out, and at T180 it's looking so much more promising than recent output for this model, go pub run!
  28. 4 likes
  29. 4 likes
    Oh Yes but the GEM for me is a thing of beauty cold from the east with sliders galore id take that now.
  30. 4 likes
    Only if the replacement is definitely better.
  31. 4 likes
    Plenty of strong ridges amongst the ensembles, some calm is really needed on here at the moment, we are playing the long games.
  32. 4 likes
    It looks like the 18z last night was indeed an outlier in amplifying straight away. The Euro and both GFS models have returned to yesterday’s pattern of events which is essentially that winter arrives for Scotland on the 17th via a nnw, winter arrives for the bulk of England on the 20th/21st via Wnw which all been well should push showers well inland. Afterwards there are some runs and ensembles trying to bring easterlies albeit at that range the signal is still incoherent.
  33. 3 likes
    Slight criticism (not of the model performance - of the synoptics) is that it becomes a bit more west based as time goes on but that is really nit-picking.
  34. 3 likes
    Will likely get a northerly toppler.. Need as much energy into euro as poss at 168..
  35. 3 likes
    I’ve always thought the GEM was the best model
  36. 3 likes
    That's the firm trend, in my opinion, has been since Monday. We need to firstly endure NW'rly flows from the 14th for a few days, wintry showers (more up North than anywhere) in between rain bands with average to cold temps the further North you go. Come the end of the next working week (D7/D8 currently) winds back increasingly to the North with NW-SE diving lows becoming more prominent. The final third of January, snow likely almost anywhere at times, but equally many might have to endure bitter cold crisp nights and days whilst being predominantly dry, oh yes, with winds coming from an Easterly quadrant by then. I am expecting some stonking charts in the mid-range over the next couple of days for coldies to view.
  37. 3 likes
    Bring back Rob McElwee, he was a proper cold ramper and appeared to love any exciting weather. Now they’re all mild lovers, boring. Chilly-ish morning with a light frost but the beautiful clear skies have gone, sadly.
  38. 3 likes
    Mix of cloud and hazy sunshine today, frost in shaded areas taking a long time to clear. Out of the shade a max of 4.5C recorded and light winds throughout. Noticeable difference in daylight now in the evening and plenty of mating bird song - if you ignore what the weather models are predicting you'd think spring was coming soon.
  39. 2 likes
    GFS 18z has corrected previous said unlikely behaviour of upper trough, let's see how it turns out
  40. 2 likes
    Seems to do so in the morning but not the evening ......however, the ec46 is on the 00z issue so who knows ............
  41. 2 likes
    Sorry, not had time to read through the thread. I'm sure it has already been said but GFS looks plain wrong the way it handles the upper trough 120/144 so I'm tempted to dismiss it. UKMO looks a little over amplified so the ECM middle ground looks like a good pick through the mid term which would put us in a decent position going forward. We could potentially be seeing the first snow falling (probably not accumulating) for lowland England this Winter as early as next week. Hopefully it would get colder from there One thing the FI output has always shown is plenty of marginal snow events, at least before any blocking we might hopefully get later takes hold. Could be plenty of lamppost of watching. GFS 18z may correct somewhat this evening, expect the usual eye candy in the ensembles.
  42. 2 likes
    A-ha. A-haha. Ahahaha. Mwahhahaha. That's how I reacted to your post.
  43. 2 likes
    Tied to the M4 railings I see...your right we shouldn't take it seriously, but I mean seriously??
  44. 2 likes
    ICON nailed Feb/march BFTE better than any model
  45. 2 likes
    Looks decent for many but I'm in Porthcawl and it seems as though the Swansea Bay/ Vale of Glamorgan snow shield is still going strong mate, hope you're away from there if you like snow
  46. 2 likes
    God I hope so!! It’s just something is bugging me about it, can’t put my finger on it. i will hold you to next Friday!!
  47. 2 likes
    It does make me smile when, fairly regularly, apparently the models 'scream' this or that. I've been in the main computer room at Bracknell( pre Exeter days), they need a lot of care to stop overheating and are a bit noisy but I have never heard them scream, ever!
  48. 2 likes
    I would say that most don't alternate near average as the mean remains firmly below average and it's trending lower as time moves on
  49. 2 likes
    GEFS look a stonker !! Are we seeing a bit of momentum building?
  50. 1 like
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