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This next 'evolution' is all about the speed & deceleration of the pacific jet & how far east the Low at 168 gets & how the 'tilt' of the low supports the cold Not sure where this cold for +10 days or 12/15 days is coming from. Its day 7!!!!!! The UKMO ( as already highlighted ) has been performing much better than the GFS in terms of non bias Eastwards, & as we stand tonight would be poised for the greatest advection of cold @168- Ive annotated the 144 charts to show the differences showing why they may or may not 'project east' hint hint.... In Order -UKMO/ ECM/ GFS The UKMO is the slowest & most amplified with a negative tilted low & support for a greater blocking wedge ahead of the low pressure, this run would project the coldest outcome @168 >192 with the most amplified trough axis & a high likleyhood of the mild 'bump' of warmth hitting the UK 192/216 - or at least seeing more of a glancing 'slider' impact across Ireland / SW. GFS is positive in the tilt indicating more forward speed & less block, which to a certain extent is supported by ECM with its neutral position, ( Glancing at the ECM 12z mean - looks more UKMO ish ) Expect ECM op to be mild outlier day 8/9/10 So tonights summary would be similar to the forecast from 3-4 days ago where we say the UKMO day 6 chart almost spot on- Which is..... UKMO / ECM blend with the low, maybe UKMO to negative, ECM to neutral so the middle ground- GFS to far east with its 'positive tilt' look for that to correct... The upshot of all this will mean the -8c line is further south & west 168-192 & also atlantic inroads into the UK less progressive. At the moment the model theme ( from 120 ) is more indicitive of cold zonality with the treasure at the end of the rainbow day 9/10 however UKMO indicates that the day 8> 9 blip could actually be a slider snow scenario... Have a good one S

Don’t know why some are moaning about the ECM ?. Nothing notably cold is expected until at least 12-15 days down the line and ECM only goes to day 10 . I give up in here sometimes.

Extreme cold has developed in Yukon territory similar to early phases of 1947 event. It is also colder than normal in most parts of the arctic islands of northern Canada. These are good building blocks because any polar northerlies will be sucking air out of those regions to feed the flow. Given that the models are now in a catch-up mode a week after the SSW event, I think we are getting into territory where the odds of the GFS being too conservative are catching up to the recent trend of it being too aggressive (in medium range to end of 16 day runs). Therefore it's legitimate to speculate that the 12z run could verify at least verbatim, which would be a great outcome, it is modified winter from 17th to about 21st then full on winter after that with one very good snowfall scenario around the 22nd-23rd.

ECM individual ensembles - it's starting to go "boom" - by 24th January, the number of runs with a favourable block to the N, NW or W is now well into the majority. I expect an even colder ensemble set than last night when the summaries come out.

Good afternoon... Ahem ^^^^ Anyway.. The GFS mean is great @-6c *BUT* expect westward corrections where the reality is going to be probably be -8c UKMO / ICON look like a good blend to me - Jet axis allignment day 8-10 could bring plenty of snow.

Interesting news coming out this afternoon a new model is launching later this year IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model

Delighted to see this post. I have found over many winters that promises of nirvana in the models and background signals have never ever delivered without some support from JH's anomaly files analysis and the lack of such support to date has tempered my optimism for the promises of what 10 days ahead will deliver us now. I am still cautious - which is only natural having seen so many huge let downs in the past - but much happier to see that now at least JH can see some signs of a change in pattern

Well the first tentative signal from the 8-14 NOAA 500 mb anomaly that a change in pattern may be about to show? My comments on my 500 mb anomaly file this morning. Wed 9 january Ec-gfs show no signal for marked blocking, just minor +ve height signal mid atlantic on ec bit more ridging even on gfs However noaa does show more suggestion of the flow buckling more on the 8-14 than the 6-10, also the contour heights are slowly falling, just s of the uk is now 546 DM, some 10-12 below its suggested value several days ago. All 3 have some form of troughing over europe, although the main centre of this is still way east http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Too early for this to be looked on as a strong indicator but if the same charts continue over the next couple of days then the % probability would change. Currently about 20%, on the later period, 10-14 days say.

Yes the signs of the switch to the cold pattern still showing around 20/21st Jan from Atlantic stronger ridging meeting the +ve heights over the Pole. This appears to be the switch we have been waiting for to advect much colder Arctic air south into the UK as can be seen by the 850 hPa anomalies at that time.This seems to be the time when the sharpening pattern pushes away the AH and we see a low diving south. Gefs t264hrs That Scandinavian trough digging well south into Europe likely this will develop a broad area of low pressure in C/S Europe. The 2m temperatures for C.England and C.Scotland The mean graphs pointing to a step down around 20th and continues on-some likely freezing days at the end. Compare days 6-10 mean surface temps anomalies with days 11-15 Quite a pronounced change to cold and an impressive set of ens.for coldies.

GEFS look a stonker !! Are we seeing a bit of momentum building?

Yes very cold ? Be nice to wake up to a stonker though wouldn’t it. If that reads wrong it wasn’t my intention

I posted this table over in banter and perhaps a lot of more serious onlookers don't go in there, so as it's not really banter I am taking the liberty of posting it here also. Basically it's a summary of all major cold spells in the daily records of the CET from 1772 on (the first one caught being 1776, and there must have been some stonkers before 1772 but we have no way of knowing the daily details of them, 1740, 1684 and 1709 for example must have produced long cold spells. The bottom line is that one fifth of all winters have produced a cold spell of at least ten days (where the mean daily temperature stayed below 0.0). A few others produced ones that failed that test but were very significant (eight or nine very cold days, or just being a bit too late into March and getting the inevitable daytime boost). Also what this table reveals is that one cluster of cold spells started on dates in late December and early January, with another cluster preferring February. There was a bit of a half-time phenomenon in late January. However, I did note that some of the major February cold spells had a good start in that period of late January and just failed to attach by one or two days getting briefly above zero. I'm sure you would experience the 1947 cold spell as starting 24th January for example. But in the table it shows up later. So here's the table, I have reduced it to quite a small size to make the seasonal profile easier to see visually, but if you want to examine the details then go to a higher magnification. The table is arranged in order of duration of these cold spells and when several are tied, the mean temperature they achieved is used to sort them. Days _ Duration of Days 0.0 or lower ______________________________ Coldest ____ Average ______[] __DECEMBER__ [] __JANUARY__ [] _FEBRUARY_ [] __MARCH______ 32 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 27 Dec 1813 - 27 Jan 1814 ....................................... -- 6.7 ...... -- 3.2 26 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7 Jan - 1 Feb 1776 ..............................................-- 7.5 ...... -- 3.0 22 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 5 - 26 Feb 1947..................-- 6.7 .... -- 2.5 **** 20 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 27 Jan 1881 .................................................. -- 8.1 ...... -- 4.6 20 ... ... ..(+12d see below) .. 7 - 26 Jan 1963 .................................................. --8.4 ...... -- 3.6 *** 18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 6 - 23 Feb 1855 ................. -- 7.5 .... -- 3.7 18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Jan 1823 ................................................. -- 8.9 ...... -- 3.0 18 ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Dec 1890 ........................................................................ -- 6.8 ...... -- 2.1 17 ... (very cold 31 Dec - 7 Jan).10-26 Jan 1795 ............................................. -- 8.9 ...... -- 4.0 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Dec 1870 - 4 Jan 1871 ............................................... -- 6.9 ...... -- 3.6 15... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-24 Jan 1940 ...(+11d later) ......................... .. -- 7.1 ...... -- 3.3 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 24 Dec 1892 - 7 Jan 1893 ....................................... ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 3.3 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 Jan - 1 Feb 1784 ................................ . -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1 14 ... ... ... ... ...(+10d earlier) . 8 - 21 Jan 1838 ............................................. ... -- 11.9 ...... -- 5.1 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 5-18 Feb 1895 .......................... -- 8.3 ...... -- 4.8** 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3-16 Jan 1820 ................................................... ....... -- 8.5 ...... -- 3.6 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Jan - 3 Feb 1780 .......................... .... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.0 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 26 Jan - 7 Feb 1954 ........................... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.5 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 29 Dec 1860 ........................................................ ........ -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1^ 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-18 Feb 1986 .......................... ... -- 4.6 ...... -- 1.6 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 14 - 26 Feb 1956..................... -- 3.2 .... -- 1.6 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 29 Dec - 10 Jan 1811 ............................................. ... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.5 12 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-17 Jan 1987 ................................................ ..... -- 7.7 ...... -- 2.6 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 23 Dec 1962 - 3 Jan 1963 .(plus 20d ^^).......................... -- 3.6 ...... -- 2.2 *** 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 - 29 Jan 1880 ......................................... ..... -- 4.3 ...... -- 2.1 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3 - 14 Feb 1991 ............................. ... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.9 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 25 Dec 1853 - 5 Jan 1854 ........................................ ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 1.8 12 ... ... ... 30 Nov - 11 Dec 1796 .......................................................................... ..... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.8 12 ......... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 28 Feb 1955 .......... -- 3.3 ... -- 1.7 11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... .17 - 27 Dec 2010 ............................................................. ...... -- 7.0 ...... -- 3.9 11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Jan 1867 ................................................. .... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.9 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1 - 11 Feb 1917 ................................. ...... -- 7.2 ...... -- 2.8 * 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 19 Feb 1985 ........................ ... -- 4.1 ...... -- 2.7 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2-12 Jan 1879 ..................................................... ........ -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.3 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-16 Jan 1850 .............................................. ........ -- 2.8 ...... -- 1.4 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 25 Dec 1820 - 4 Jan 1821 ............................................ ........ -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Feb 1853....................... -- 3.2 ...... -- 1.2 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...(+15d earlier ^^) . 9 - 19 Feb 1940 .......................... --2.5 ....... --1.1 10 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-15 Jan 1982 ..................................................... .... --7.6 ...... -- 4.0 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Jan 1826 .......................................... .............-- 6.9 ..... -- 3.7 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 20 - 29 Jan 1945 ............................ ........ -- 7.6 ...... -- 3.5 10 ... ... ... ... 5 - 14 Dec 1844 ................ .............................................................. ............-- 5.5 ...... -- 2.7 ... see below Mar 1845 10 ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Dec 1878 ............................................................................. ......... -- 5.3 ...... -- 2.9^^ 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 16 - 25 Jan 1829 .................................. ....... -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.8 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 14 - 23 Jan 1809 .................................. ........ -- 5.1 ...... -- 2.4 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 24 Dec 1836 - 2 Jan 1837 ................................................ ........... -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...23 Dec 1837 - 1 Jan 1838 ..(+14d later) ............................. .......... -- 2.7 ...... -- 1.4 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 - 30 Jan 1917 .(1-11 Feb^)................. -- 1.8 ... -- 1.1 * __________________________________________________ ^ Most of the period 1-16 Jan 1861 was also subzero, the 31-day period 17 Dec 1860 to 16 Jan 1861 averaged -1.3 C. ^^ This cold spell extended from 7 to 26 Dec, 20 days in which the mean CET was --2.4 C. The interval 20-25 Dec was --3.7 C. * Except for +0.3 on 31 Jan 1917, a 22 day spell avg --1.8 C lasting 21 Jan to 11 Feb. ** A longer spell of 24 days with +0.4 as warmest, 26 Jan - 18 Feb 1895, avg --3.7 C. *** Although there were only two spells in winter 1962-63 that qualified for this list, note that the period of 35 days that includes the two, 23 Dec to 26 Jan, averaged -2.7 C and 70 days 22 Dec to 2 March averaged -- 1.5 C. **** The 45-day period 23 Jan to 8 Mar 1947 averaged --1.9 C. <<>> RECENT NEAR MISSES & EXPANSION OF 1986 FROM LIST <<>> 25 Nov to 4 Dec 2010 averaged -- 1.7 C and 25 Nov to 8 Dec averaged -- 1.7 C but these periods failed by a slight margin to make the list (25 Nov was +0.3 and 5 Dec was +0.4). The 26-day period from 6 Feb to 3 Mar 1986 averaged -- 1.2 C. The 15-day period from 5 to 19 Jan 1985 averaged --1.7 C. (11th not subzero so it has no ten-day interval) 1 to 10 Jan 2010 averaged --1.9 C but failed to make the list because 2 Jan was +0.3 C. 16 to 25 Jan 2013 averaged --0.9 C but failed to make the list because 24 Jan was +0.7 C. 8-26 Dec 1981 averaged -- 2.3 C. ___________________________________ honourable mention should be given to 11-20 March 1845, there were two days in that 10-day interval slightly above zero but the average so late in the season was --1.7 C and contains the coldest March day (-6.5 on 13th). Also, in terms of a sustained cold anomaly, 21 March to 1st April 2013 (12 days) had a mean of +1.2 C. 1785 was even colder at the same time of year, 13 days from 22 March to 3 April had an average of +0.8 C. In terms of early winter season sustained cold, the interval 11-16 Nov 1919 averaged --0.3 C. ________________________________ ANALYSIS of starting dates for 10-day or longer cold spells Of all the 51 spells (in 47 winters, roughly 19% of the years surveyed) including the later ones in March, but excluding those that just missed during the winter season, this is the frequency count for starting dates: xx Nov to 10 Dec __ 4 11 to 20 Dec ______ 2 21 to 31 Dec ______ 9 01 to 10 Jan ______13 11 to 20 Jan ______ 6 21 to 31 Jan ______ 3 01 to 10 Feb ______ 8 11 to 20 Feb ______ 3 21 Feb or later ____ 3 For whatever reason, there is a period from 21st January to start of February when these spells are less likely to commence. A second cluster then emerges around first week of February often lasting longer than 10 days. We have now reached the point in the winter when half of these significant cold spells had begun. The three-quarters point is around 8 February. Not that length is the only important point when comparing cold spells, last winter's late bloomer lasted about five days but "did the business" for snowfall and set a daily record on the 1st of March. Not all of the above set daily records, about two-thirds did (and sometimes quite a few, for example 1776 set five in a row). You will find examples of winters with a cold spell listed and some other memorable cold or snow outside that interval, for example, in Dec 1796 a later but shorter cold spell produced the coldest December day. February's coldest day in 1816 was embedded in a seven-day subzero stretch which was about a week after an earlier five day interval at end of January. The spell listed for 1956 is not the most memorable cold of that month, that happened in the first few days of February. But that spell only ran to five days. Will this winter join the list? If so, likely to be 23 January or so before it begins. The 1947 subzero cold spell began on 24th, the interval to 2nd averaged -1.7 but fell one day short of this list (and by 0.1 C on 23rd). Two days of 0.7 separated that from the main cold spell shown in the table and it then stayed very cold to about the 10th of March.

...and there's a difference between low tropospheric heights over Greenland with a deeply entrenched SPV and without it. The latter instance results in rapid changes in the lower circulation pattern.

Anyone worrying about what the GFS is showing for a period 13 days away . GFS 11th Of February 2018 for 24th Of February. Actual chart

Scotland ??????? Here - Edinburgh - Glasgow - Inverness - Aberdeen - battleground snowfalls anyone?

GFS is a mess... A very cold mess... And it still manages to deliver the goods ( for some reason I can't upload the precip type charts but they show copious amounts of snow...) You know, this stuff - uksnowrisk.webp

METO just updated, still talking of greater chance of cold and snow later next week - to me that’s earlier than some models are saying. ECM looks about best for delivering that , UKMO not in range yet so can’t say. I’m punting for a 12z upgrade should that be the case.

No. If only you ever stopped to analize the runs & how the GFS moves to the euros you would never be so foolish to assume the GFS leading the way- What you actually seeing is the GFS coming into line with the UKMOs slower evolution. 18z has decelerated the jet to allign the block exactly where we need it ( perfectly in sync with the Strat profiles )

Haha, I remember Catacol and I fighting against the despair - mind you that was one of the easier forecasts to make against the GFS at that time. This time I think it will take a little longer to get a block of that magnitude!

Extended eps stay solid .....

I had a change of tact this morning, looked at the ens first, which are absolutely fine and then some. Mean hovering at or below -5, I’m not concerned. The doom mungers will no doubt be out in force this morning though

Write off the GFS?.... We see the classic 'angel fish' 2 wave pattern taking shape here- GFS(P) (last available run) GFS op - And.... December 1962 - If my land rover sees this, there'll be a puddle of engine wee in the morning...

call me a cynic but its been 12-15 days down the line since mid Dec..so you can see why some people feel frustrated

Oh go on then

This was my post SSW model from Novembers Winter forecast Now looking a good match...

Regardless of the Synoptics the uppers for large swathes of the country stay at -4 mean or below from day 8 onwards, looks like PM shots first with potential for more down the line, could deliver for all the country at some point which would be nice to save some missing out.

cracking T2Ms from debilt today post day 10! GFS 06z more amplified upstream like UKMO @138 Will be a better run...

UKMO and ECM identical at D4

Signals for cold now creeping in....more runs needed, more ensembles needed, but with the recent SSW and the EC monthly anomalies things are looking good. Though at face value the op runs may well need a few more days to really see the ensuing cold pattern. Hopefully it’ll just be a case of sitting back and watching the blizzards roll in

EC at T+240 is still only 19th Jan, short of the touted date of 21st Jan, so not in range of the EC yet. Plus most of the GFS eye candy charts are 300 hours plus unless I’m mistaken - so for me the bigger picture is the same, decent/cold and snow won’t show within 240 hours yet. Exciting few days of model watching ahead I hope!

Eps clusters say 75/25 on the euro troughing .... the 25% a slow burner to cold. (Still Not arrived by day 15) the fog clearing but the mist will hang around for a while

Does kind of feel like this again this morning looking at the operationals …. However, trying to inject some motivation in the downbeat mood following the ops, GEFS z500 mean and anomalies for heights and T850s looking on track beyond 20th, bear in mind the GEFS will smooth out the best members for heights and cold too. 21st Jan 25th Jan Also, 00z EC op was a mild outlier towards the end for London

This feels very much like that time when you know you're going to be sick and start wondering when it will happen. And then suddenly it does happen. The GEM run shows that this consensus is easy to break with just a momentary loss of energy from the jet stream, if it begins to slip south then the floodgates open. I can't say with any confidence if this is going to be 18th, 21st, 24th or 27th rough time scale because it seems to be the end product of the earlier SSW event and we have no foolproof equation-driven solution to that question. We are at the mercy of a process that could just as easily take two weeks as one week. And I don't really think any one model will lead on this, they will take turns, it's when they all align and bring cold air south (at your longitude) that the game will be truly on.

Latest blog from Nick is worth a read: Latest On Sudden Stratospheric Warming & How It May Bring Much Colder Weather

Oh I can see why peeps are frustrated me included. But this time there is a lot more evidence pointing to cold than there has been all winter . METO - Tick ECM/Ens/EC46- Tick GFS/GEFS - Tick Dont get me wrong nothing is 100% but to have all of the above is a very good starting point . So all the frustrations will hopefully be over soon . But then again you can’t always please everyone, some will still moan .

Decent amplification at T192, maybe this is the start of it?

Good FI again on the gfs 12z . As @northwestsnow says wedges make sledges.

GFS 12z is a stonker. EDIT : and without huge areas of blocking - frigid cold.

Thats what I’m talking about! At this rate the Mean will be 0c at D16 Happy note to sign off on

Really cold looking GEFS 12z mean from around the 20th onwards, ice days and snow for many i would think..the potential for a significant wintry period during the last third of January is gathering momentum and even before then there should be a spell of cold zonality during the second half of next week!

Well based on earlier comment that the strongest signal for cold across the model output is at about T300, quick look through the GEFS 12z at T300, I think over half are showing a cold or severe cold outlook for the UK. Hopefully the op runs should come on board over the next few days.

Snowmentum. Sorry, couldn't resist.

N.England/Midlands/S.England ? Cushty! PS - 17/18th looking good still for a snow event somewhere. Midlands North form horse atm. Ppn spike and conducive uppers align!

Great to have the thread buzzing this evening. But maybe a good time to give a gentle reminder - please ensure any posts you make are on topic (see the green header at the top of every page). A few posts have just been moved to the Model banter thread, so if yours is missing it will be here. Many thanks.

My interest is beginning to increase as are the number of members going down the scandi high route ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 0z ensembles GEM 0z ensemble NAEFS 0z now gets the linking of above average heights Atlantic / Greenland / arctic by 20th Jan (although I think this is just a bit too quick) good positives going blocked quicker and by 384h GEFS I am not concerned with the GFS / GEFS / GFS P , think it is a case of uncertainty so going with its default of developing low pressures as much as it can. My first point of focus - get the lows that start to develop on that NW - SE track bringing some cooler / colder conditions (north westerlies, northerlies, north easterlies) then attention turns to blocking going through last week of Jan (keep monitoring blocking trends til then of course) https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&amp;code=code&amp;mode=0&amp;mode3h=0&amp;runpara=1&amp;carte=1&amp;runpara=1

Control is an absolute stonker actually!! ECM ens looking very nice indeed also!!

Is a few days any good?

ECM extended ensemble summaries just in: By 24th January, the mean upper temperature for London is minus 5.5C (https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850). Mean maximum temperatures nationwide between 0C and 4C, going from north to south.

I know this was generated yesterday, but the NOAA CPC prognostic 8-14 day z500 chart looks upbeat for the UK in terms of anomaly and contours. The western N American ridge to the pole and Atlantic ridge N over Greenland to the pole will help weaken the negative effects of the energy coming off the NE Canadian tropospheric vortex. We're just waiting for the amplification to develop over the N Atlantic, operationals not really catching on to it yet.

I’m looking really hard for possible negative issues ....the reverse of what we usually do where we look really hard for any signs of cold !