Leaderboard

That's a very negative post. Just in case there's any confusion, here's what a well organised stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) at 10hPa 60N looks like. Example from Nov 2011: And here's what the SPV is forecast to look like by 14th January 2019. Disorganised and split after the SSW: The tropospheric polar vortex at 500hPa is a different beast to the SPV and if you read the posts from knowledgeable people on here, there have been plenty of informed discussions around whether the SPV SSW will "downwell" and "couple" with the troposphere to give the synoptic patterns that the Hunt for Cold thread is looking for. This doesn't always happen, but here's what the Met Office say: ".....a cold snap follows more often than not, so the SSW greatly increases the risk of wintry weather." You might wish to read their full blog here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming And this morning we've read that some of the GEFS pertubations are starting to show more encouraging patterns, maybe starting to sniff out what's happening higher up in the stratosphere? For example, Pert 17 looking very interesting.

Sorry in advance MODS, but it’s comments like these that make brilliant posters like @Tamara stop commenting on here, and this forum is a poorer place for it. It sounds like you have a bit of an entitlement complex. We don’t have a god given right to have cold, snowy weather. We know how difficult it is for everything to fall into place for us to get that kind of weather on our small island. However, as we all know, those “background signals” don’t guarantee cold but make it much more likely. So we should always have that in the back of our minds, and if things don’t fall into place for us then so be it. We have some exceptionally knowledgeable people on this forum who dedicate their time and impart their wisdom to help all of us in our quest for snow. We should be thankful for that, and not moan if things don’t fall into place. As it happens, we are still in with a great chance for a cold, snowy outbreak during the second half of winter. Writing anything off now is madness.

Happy New Year everyone-see you in 2019

ECM hasn't woken up fully to the MJO projection yet either - it is still relatively low amplitude vs JMA and GFS, the latter has tempered itself from the wild 4SD plots earlier (result of it over representing an Equatorial Rossby Wave). Still think the ECM has amplitude to gain here and therefore a stronger imprint on the subsequent artefacts generated via eastward Pacific transition. What is of interest here and frantically digging through research on this is the impact of SSW on UTLS, and what will this do to the MJO as it moves through the phase space.. The image below shows OLR anomalies for SSW of both Displacement and Split event, then also a table of historical values. The paper identifies the conduits for displacement and split events - however does not telegraph the forward effects - still an area of interest. What is clear is that the NWP will be in absolute carnage just now - SSW overnight, split within 48 hrs, 3 vortex lobes as a result, I would expect literally every available solution possible to present itself between now and 04 Jan. The continuation / secondary warming on the parent lobe is also cool, and looks robust assists delaying the daughter vortices coalescing again. Right now split, FNMOC aside continues for entire GEOS run... anyone like movies.. some historical splits below, they do take a minute to load but are neat when they do. http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/SSW-animations/anim-PV/1979_530K/loop.html http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/SSW-animations/anim-PV/2008-2009_530K/loop_short.html http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/SSW-animations/anim-PV/2012-2013_530K/loop.html Polar High appears to be appreciating, another trend to keep across - suspect the NAO flip will be severe when it arrives.. Onwards and Downwellwards!

Another great update this morning. SSW, as has been the case for quite a few days now, on course for lift off tomorrow (possibly even technically later tonight). It’s a fairly simplistic chart and of course many nuances within, but to have a mid strat reversal that continues for 16 days+ (one solitary member bounces back to positive, and even that is after two weeks!) at this time of year is incredible. Albeit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that end up being pegged back a bit. Still, it’s impressive. There will be repercussions, cold will exit the Arctic down to the mid lats. Stay patient, we would have to consider ourselves to be unlucky to miss out on a decent cold spell from this. Might well end up doing but NOBODY knows yet, save your stress until then and in the meantime, enjoy!

Who are these people you describe as some? The more knowledgable who donate lots of time and effort to share their thoughts and ideas with us? With NO guarantee everything will fall into place for the UK. I understand peoples frustrations, i really do, believe me, my location has seen little but rain and mild temps since November.. But i think we need to be patient i really do.

Yesterday or perhaps the day before there were maybe two or three runs flirting with High Pressure over Greenland.. Today it looks like this... definitely a trend developing..

I have to say, this morning as poor as I’ve seen on this forum. And that’s saying something. I genuinely think if people insist on only following every suite religiously and then are unable to control their frustration through one liner gloomy posts, give it (and others) a break for a few days. Anyway, the GEFS continue to smell the coffee in a big way. And as for this not moving forward. Day10 means... (Euro charts to highlight improvement in Atlantic ridging). 12z 18z 00z And the 06z...

One more post then! find some negativity in that

4 LOBE VORTEX ALERT. If that imprints on the trop - biggest -AO in history!!!

With the central warming date set at 1st Jan, earliest trop response seems to be 13th onwards. To restate - Stratospheric. Timescales. Are. Extremely. Slow. I suspect we may be at the longer end of the envelope for trop response (so more like 15-20 day) given that the duration of this warming event is extremely long. For downwelling signature I would normally look for a reorganisation of the upper SPV. That's clearly not evident just yet, and it may well be we are reliant on a massive -U wind signature muscling its way down. In the meantime, we are in what is a clear teleconnective phase, one where the (enso lead) pattern wants to go cold, but is prevented from doing so by the atmospheric field over the polar region not being conducive. A clear cut signal for mid latitude highs. The unfavourable AO state is being driven by constructive interference from the stratospheric warming and tropical forcing in the Pacific. looking at the tropical forcing signal for weeks 2 and 3 with a return of forcing to the far Indian Ocean, that would suggest a slowing and retraction of the Pacific Jet. We therefore have a plausible favourable time line for downwelling stratospheric signal and tropical forcing opening up end week 2 into week 3. For those on the 2001/02 bandwagon, no propagation, I offer this. This was one of my analogues that performed well during the summer and early autumn. Atmospherically it punched above its weight during the autumn with AAM running well ahead of the enso indices. However, this analogue was rejected for the winter as it fell at the complete opposite end of the solar cycle, and could not mirror the enso values experienced this winter. Additionally, and crucially, I cannot see this analogue holding a candle the scale and extent of the major mid winter warming we are about to embark upon. That gives me a 70% chance of downwelling taking place, but more likely on a much longer time scale that many are anticipating. the broad scale evolution looks to remain as mid latitude high retrogressing north and northwards over time.

Amen to that. Such a shame, the interesting insights from the more knowledgeable posters is what drew me this thread but the wind up merchants are really beginning to spoilt it.

Groundhog Day..... not the models but the daily morning negative posts! huge scatter on the GEFS ENS starting earlier. much to be positive about! See you next year!

The big news from the gefs mean is the resplitting of the tpv end week 2 ......

Some real doom mongers and moaners on here the last few days (especially today)!. I am not a "Mod" obviously but can these please use another thread???. Its great watching peoples commentary of the runs that come out and their knowledgeable opinions or views on it., however it keeps getting interrupted by people who just love a sarcastic or clever comment - Rant over (technically this should be on the rant thread!! lol)

Good ole Pub Run - sniffing out porno charts at 360... this time it may be onto something...looks entirely plausible Neat way for the ever maligned 18z to sign off 2018! Happy New Year folks Into 2019 and the Hunt for cold should not be as arduous as the last few weeks!

WHATS GOING ON GEFS Things may have taken a good turn Check out the day 9 mean - that’s v v good

The bore fest continues

Peak amplitude of the initial wave from the ECM @96 now the highest its been all week-

I don't see the point in this reset business , wet dull and windy ……..why would anyone want that ?? We are chasing an area of HP , we have one that will give us chilly temps and dry weather , hopefully it will then wriggle itself into a favourable position

MODS - any chance of a 'Happy New Year' thread for those who don't want to bother appending such worthy sentiments to some proper model commentary? - x hundred members might otherwise derail this thread at a rather interesting time!? (Bah Humbug)

HAPPY SSW new year.

Enjoy this weeks cold with frosts and fog..at least it will feel like winter for a change!!..looking ahead, the GEFS is yet again indicating increasing potential for wintry weather, perhaps even severe!..the second half / last third of January could be special!

Happy new year everyone...... GFS is a corker tonight, ICON also very good- Models converging on the 8-9th for the bigger picture change... Look for less surpression of the Scandi high as that shortwave triggers through ( so net it goes further SE rather than East... Fab outputs to come & AO will be tanking ...

Happy new year everyone. Hope it’s a snowy one

Current mood Happy New Year everyone! I’m giving this place a miss for the rest of the day before I get dragged into this extremely bizarre negativity! The clues are there! Wild swings in the output, GEFS members showing Hight rises to the North, SSWE unfolding as we speak! But whatever

As has been rightly alluded to, the GEFS are trending in the right direction. Notice the shift in the mean & colder runs from yesterday's 18z thru' 06z today. METO / GLOSEA are still 'on song' btw.

Good morning gang , I am certainly looking forward to the next 9 weeks of meteorological winter and also March .just wondering when the main models really latched on to the cold weather last winter ,Feb March etc .I can remember a big night when HEY Presto we all went crackers . Keep the faith gang ,I have noticed as usuall ecm days 8 9 10 all over the place , STELLAS all round .

This one Nick by any chance... It's a series of tweets outlining the route to the NAO flip, great work from Anthony. Everyday is a school day on wxtwitter.

Looking at the extended GEFS 00z mean & postage stamps..winter is coming, or at least more wintry than we have seen so far which let's face it wouldn't be difficult would it?..I'm seeing increasing chances of cold and snow as we head towards mid january!

Reverse psychology......I hope. I’ll make a new post tomorrow. I am anticipating that the pull back west of the HP will occur to allow the arctic blast from displaced PV, but December sniffed then failed. So I’m obviously wary but still believe some serious weather is coming....but am aware that it could pile down too Far East and U.K. miss .....again HNY ALL BFTP

Just a quick one from me as i have boozy guest's waiting i would just like to wish you all a happy new year and i will be back on here next year....well,tomorrow lol thanks again for this tremendous forum and members,stay safe peeps and stella's all round

ECM 0z Christmas Eve for New Year's morning ECM 0z for tomorrow morning Way too flat it was in its predictions from a week ago

Something like this is quite feasible: Perb. 17.

I agree 100%. Despite not posting much I have followed the posts on here and also frequently viewed the model output. The reaity is, despite the continous "excellent background signals" being posted, the lack of any decent cold model output is striking. We haven't even seen much eye candy in distant F.I i.e +300 which is unusual in itself. As I said last winter and recently, any cold signals mean nothing if this isn't being shown in the model output. I respect those who use forecasting methods such as teleconnections but remain sceptical at our ability to use these to make an accurate forecast for a tiny island such as ours. We simply cannot make an accurate LRF using science and firmly believe a farmer has as much chance of being accurate using nature. At the moment I see nothing that supports deep cold with HP being centred close to the UK for the next couple of weeks.

That’s interesting....I just saw a very informative piece on twitter which explained how important our trop ridge is wrt the split which occurs in the strat vortex ...... that split which will allow a greeny high IF/WHEN upstream buckles to allow it ........

To add to the above... ...and we are still (just) outside that range even in the far reaches of the GFS.

Ok guys, my thinking is, by the end of this week/ weekend,the charts will start to firm up on a bitter freeze from mid month onwards which should last for a considerable time (more than 5 days lol). Now I know it will be in Lala land to start but I expect the signals to be picked up and NOT dropped. There will be changes on the way to T0z but all routes will lead to cold. Now this to some may seem as a hunch which it is not, as much as I don’t post on here that often the research I do in between posts is quite deep ( very annoying to the missus) Add to that what a lot of the pros from around the globe also say then my confidence is very high. This is a fantastic forum and enjoy it as much as when I first joined in 2010!!! Happy New Year to everybody on here and yes that does include the people who come in here who aren’t hunting for cold!!! See you all in 2019, much love MNR

I see this thread is still as frantic as ever P5 caught my eye on the 12z a few others including some from the overnight runs of the GEFS legacy and the GEM ensembles still heading in the right direction (a few more days of uncertainty and then hopefully a firming up on more blocked conditions, still sticking to my original date of the 8th Jan onward for things to start becoming more blocked and we end up on the right side of things to get colder / snowier weather) Also in case I dont get a chance to say it later - Happy New Year everyone! lets hope 2019 is a memorable cold and snowy year for us all

Lets look at Christmas Eve GFS 12z run for New Year's morning and continue the run to the 6th January Now compare to today's 12 run for tomorrow morning Now for the 6th January

GFS 06 Christmas Eve for New Year's morning And today's 06z for tomorrow morning GFS was too flat, a week ago in its prediction.

GEFS are a stonker

Very good signs in this mornings GEFS output. 3 runs in a row now showing growing ens support for a mid month cold burst. Watch this space. Pacific ridging key to enabling WAA in North Atlantic. Cautious optimism, as per this graph for Humberside

Be nice to have one last hurrah from the ECM, champagne popper Even if it’s not there tomorrow, let’s see out* 2018 in style EC

Liking UKMO 144 personally- finally some subtle signs of Atlantic becoming 'ridgy'..

Thanks to the NW members on here, they’ve reminded me it was you David. Just a quick one, thanks for your very informative posts and us folk that don’t understand the full complexities of what’s happening way above our heads, it’s all about laymen’s terms and you are very good at that for sure. keep em coming, DWW

Thats interesting. The mean chart GFS 06z at 240hrs

I beg you and anyone replying to big posts, please not to quote the entire post hard work when on an iPhone ? pretty Certain David was saying about Tamara’s post on a different forum. She doesn’t tend to post here much now, which is a massive loss, but I can’t blame her as she gets nothing but crap, which when you construct a post with such detail as she does, to have it dissected is ridiculous.

I can’t understand people’s frustrations, I really can’t. We’ve been through enough of these SSW’s to know it’s not a simple watch period. I don’t understand the despondency, perhaps it’s a form of reverse psychology I dunno ?.

I don't agree with these 'splits' on the tropospheric output, they are tame, this is a proper split.