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Awful Lot of folks on here this morning with an opinion about how silly looking at day 10 models are. Interestingly not many of them had much to say on any output analysis at all until now. Amazing how we have a slew of new experts when the models don’t behave as expected if you’re in that camp of ‘day 10 model watching is pointless’ then might I suggest you stick to watching the televised weather forecasts and basking in the knowledge that you will probably always be right, and then you can leave those who like to make a stab at a forecast based on output analysis alone to pursue a hobby they enjoy. nobody gets a prize for being right or wrong and it’s frankly just a bit poor if you enjoy being the person who takes pleasure in saying ‘I told you so’. there’s lots of other places on the internet for your badly articulated ‘realism’. Thanks.

Yep major downgrade. Stronger block Everything further West Atlantic held back longer Good trough disruption But because an ultra low resolution image doesn't show major UK snowfall, it's a downgrade. People need to stop getting so hung up on the details, especially given the wildly different outputs at the moment, very subtle changes can have big changes in terms of the weather we see down at the ground. Save your sanity, look to high-resolution charts for snowfall nearer the time. (Aperge, HIRLAM, Euro4 etc) The medium-extended range is about trends and overall weather patterns, not whether a specific part of the UK will see snowfall.

Hi Apple. If looking at the models in an unbiased way perhaps you could consider sometimes posting in the short term or past Autumn threads if your comments are relating to mild or Atlantic weather as this particular thread had an emphasis on hunting for cold. Not enough people are posting in those threads!

The Gfs 6z looks a lot more wintry..and close to Christmas too..Lots of knee jerk reactions earlier...I'm quietly confident there is some wintry weather on the way before crimbo!

With all these "downgrades" you keep reporting, I assume next week is now showing strong SSW'rly winds with temps in the mid - high teens and a strong SPV forecast for the next 2 months?

Yes I came back because I got a lot of concerned messages, some lovely people on netweather..glad I did come back, the models look fascinatingly poised going forward.

ECM 144 fills in the 'hole' where CAA should be through debilt alligning a perfect flow... Atlantic is going to be under pressure here....

Please don't reply to anyone in here that you think is on a wind up, it just escalates the situation. Posts will be hidden! Please report the post(s) in question and refrain from biting. Be assured, we're monitoring the activity, and it will be dealt with.

Yes - agreed. Good summary. Of note perhaps is the rate of decline visible today on the momentum budgets around 30N. Very steep. This suggests to me that a stormy atlantic spell prior to rebuilding of heights in and around 18th Dec could end up being very stormy. I am personally confident in what I have laid out over the last few weeks, which is of a cyclical attempt at high lat blocking that will only really begin to take hold in the second half of the month - but it is uncanny that a momentum signal in the charts today suggests a very stormy period just when RJS suggested there might be one. I know this isnt the seasonal forecast thread, but if you havent read RJS's take on the season ahead over on that thread then do so. Totally different methodology - but an uncanny knack for accuracy. So - we have a ridge approaching....we will have an atlantic brewing alongside, and in 7 - 10 days' time we will have interaction of the two. Undercut? Heights blown away? Up for grabs....but whatever happens next week I cant see a flat alantic being the end product. Heights will soon pop back up, and with luck our cold air source gets colder in the meantime. Best case scenario next week would obviously be for as much energy as possible to pass under the block, but the sharp fall in momentum evidenced today suggests to me that the storm track next week wont be far enough south for that. Let's wait and see. I'm still munching my breadsticks and hoping to see Muse take to the stage.

Hehe - you make me laugh. Not at all concerning for anyone who is reading the signals and understands what is going on. The growth of the Scandy High is the product of the MJO phase just gone, and until we get the interaction of frictional/mountain torque we have a short period of waiting for further enhancement. The fact that the atlantic makes an appearance is hardly a surprise given the fact that its December. From here on this image I would expect to see the high wobble a bit, but then be reinvigorated by the impact of the next torque cycle. Interestingly the "down" slide of the current pacific phase has become steep as westerly momentum is scrubbed out, particularly around 30N But to be honest AAM has sat so high, and I've been musing over that for many days, that a drop like this helps restore some faith in conceptual understanding of momentum budgets. But what goes down....must go up - and this leaves room for a decent jump back up in mountain torque in the next few days. Given decaying pacific wave at present this is likely to be a moderate event...but enough to provide the bump necessary to reinvigorate the Scandy High and draw it a bit further west. Timing is +/- a few days because it rather depends on the exact timing of the uptick in torques - but I'm expecting these within 72 hours and that would mean a strengthening of the pattern about 10 days later - so maybe Dec 18? From there it gets really exciting.... Ventrice plots suggesting another fairly strong MJO phase on top of a vortex event of good proportions. So - anything that happens next week in the run up to mid month is simply the breadstick prior to the starter....bruschetta perhaps round about Xmas

In the crazy up and down world of chasing cold, not always but quite often, beyond 144h, do any of you compare like with like at these times scales? So 00z with 00z for 24 hours nearer T+00 etc? It will give a more genuine pattern of how a particular model is developing a particular pattern than comparing each run with the last 06 to 00 etc-honest. Once down to 144h then, yes, the latest data is more important at decreasing time scales. Try it and see how it works over the next few weeks. I remain convinced that the idea of a Scandinavian block was never really likely. At least initially. The more likely event from a mobile Atlantic would be pressure rises behind a travelling low, possibly linking to the Azores semi permanent ridge, and further back warm air advection out of northern Canada helping a build of heights in the Greenland area. Just my take on things.

Same old story with easterlies! Never trust these until they’re shown within T96 hrs. The thing I would say though is the better projections of recent days never had the conditions suitable to deliver a convective easterly . So in those terms it’s not really a big downgrade . It’s really just about getting enough cold into the UK to undercut any Atlantic fronts . The models today shows that’s a bit more of a struggle , and upstream we see less trough disruption . I wouldn’t throw the towel in just yet though .

hum...?

Can you feel the lottery numbers for me while you're at it? No hurry just somewhere between Xmas and New year.

Not only are the synoptic 6 or 12 hour models swopping from run to run. The anomaly charts are not showing any real solid consistency, 2-3 days with charts suggesting an upper flow pattern, then a change, see links below. I suggest that the NOAA 6-10 with its large +ve heights and ridging over N Norway is unlikely to show on the next 6-10. Already no sign of it on its 8-14 version. The Atlantic, in some form, looks the most likely to me amid all the differing outputs from any source. Probably more Polar than Tropical in terms of weather type. Windy at times as well as surface features deepen as they run across the Atlantic. Beyond 14 days, not my area so I leave to others. Do not take much notice of the synoptic 6 and 12 hour outputs much further than 144 hours at the moment, and again as I mentioned earlier try comparing like with like at that time scale, perhaps down to 120 hours?

Just an observation about that amazing winter was the milk truck always turned every morning on time as did the school bus. Our school never closed that winter. The playground was the biggest ice rink in the world, great fun. When I got home after school , I walked in the fields and stood in snow drifts and actually ran with drifting snow. When its snow now where I live one mile up in the sky, I cannot wait to get out and walk in it for hours. My wife , born in a land of snow thinks I am bonkers.

Adjustment from 06z to 12z same timestamp- 06z left

This place wouldn’t be the same without you mate. Keep it up

I don't agree, I think it's finely balanced and could easily tip back in our favour..looking forward to the 12z runs!!

Morning all. Looks like all models in agreement at 144t, with possibly the UKMO the most robust to hold the block to the NE a bit longer. Although the promised Easterly has been unable to push enough westward this time , it looks like a 3rd attempt just before Christmas will have a bit more potency. During the medium range period ,days 7-10 , both GFS and ECM push the Atlantic trough well into the British Isles, however this could be a bit premature as I think the block to the NE will be exerting some disruptive forces against the Atlantic systems during this period. As always we will have to see but encouraging news in the longer term . C

I'm not seeing anything mild as such beyond the next few days, temps becoming generally below average sums it up so feeling seasonal and there is potential for some trough disruption further ahead with a rain, sleet and snow mix...could be worse!

Interesting..

I'll let you all know, should I see a flake!

No downgrade in longer term outlook..i.e predominantly below average temperatures, at least further east and south...so, some wintry weather is on the menu at times in the weeks ahead!!

You want christmas hope? Here you have

ICON 18z done, here T120 vs 12z T126 Stonger something somewhere, weaker signals somewhere, upgrade, downgrade...whatever...I've lost interest in this chase now, available cold was never going to make this a memorable spell. On to the next one, either height rises to the NW, or failing that what the SSW offers...

Well you simply couldn't make it up, JMA is even better than the ECM! What a turnaround...

Nice UKMO - 144- Atlantic angle means its not coming through- Quite pleased so far

Atlantic doesnt get to the eaat of the UK at 180...

Carol Kirkwood says it's going to snow next week, that's good enough for me!! The models still show it turning colder next week compared to this week's mild dross!!

All I will say to that is can anybody remember Xmas 2005? Here are the charts to jog your memories. Very similar to the upcoming evolution. Well, the met office were calling a mild and wet Xmas up to just a few days before this. Food for thought.

To me it's a real battle between the scandi block and the atlantic..fascinating watching this unfold and obviously i hope cold wins!!!!!!

The trouble is people are constantly looking too far ahead that’s why the disappointment, if you constantly look for stunning charts right in fi then the dates will just keep getting pushed back or it just changes as if it was never there, remember small changes early on end up been pretty big by the end of the run. there will be some sort of cold next week before just maybe the proper cold beast just around xmas

It's turning much colder next week according to the latest models with frosts and for some..snow showers..as a coldie, that suits me sir!!

EC46 is a January Jackpot.

Your input is an absolute joy Blue.. I have wanted to say that for a while. Thankyou ..

I always preferred android...

I would only say it if I believed in the forecast - no point in BS for the sake of it...

PTB 11 also locking up the SE energy transfer with a corker !

Schadenfreude entry #162. Johnp pointed out that the meteorological winter is just 6 days old, an indisputable fact that implies there's plenty of time for the 98% of us on here hoping for cold. Anyway, I for one am fairly optimistic going forward after reading some of the top players assessments of the potential SSW towards the end of the month. Thumbs up emoji!

I have one concern. Mouldy cheese arises if the Salt and Shake don’t go under the Skips. Need spaghetti bolognese to show Dominos pizza disrupting sprouts high up in the foodosphere within the Golden Wonder Zone. A slow down in the apple pies would keep Quavers curved up. Sprouts would be doomed. And Pom Bears would go on to attack Canada and Greenland. Seabrooks to deliver triple chocolate cake after Christmas, as bigger pack of Skips sends some Pepper under. Any servings of mouldy cheese shown by 18Z Spaghetti Bolognese Suite in Squishy Tomato World, shouldn’t be much. Eventual outcome to still be yummy cake! Expect the 00Z Candy run to be appetising!

I don’t agree with special.....we have an Atantiic on southerly track or NW/SE axis....we could see some serious winter weather especiallyif deep trough sets up to our E BFTP

Good evening all Hope everyone is well. Just finished work here in Milton Keynes on my way home back to east London now. Just been looking at the comments since this morning. What can I say, what a week which started good and some were almost getting certain about this easterly next week. With a big sigh I am afraid it's a lesson we don't learn alas we try to fill our hearts content somehow. Back to the topic looks like nothing is still certain. In the past we have seen the models back down and then closer to the time they can flip. These high pressures are really difficult to forcast and I will always wait for a closer time period till I make any assumption on what's likely to happen. From what I can see in reality the Atlantic is still going to come to force next week but what is uncertain is how resistance is this high in Scandinavia going to be. I would advise to wait a few days to see what pans out then we can make a more sound judgement for later next week. Who knows ECM might turn all the models around let's just see. Even if the Atlantic does win we are only 2 weeks into December be patient Mr snowflake will find us. Wishing you all a lovely evening kind regards

It’s a little early to be throwing in the towel off of the backs of 1 mornings model runs. UKMO is fairly decent GFS mean holds the block in place longer than the GFS Det, too And this mornings ICON is much improved upon it’s overnight run. The Det runs do seem a little progressive when compared with their respective ensemble suites but even they eventually get the Atlantic in and then we have a low pressure signal right out to the end of the extended (day 15). Anything that happens after the block development is up in the air, models do historically struggle with this. If I was a betting man I’d probably bet on the Atlantic winning out based on this mornings models, however there’s still plenty of water to go under the bridge before we get to that point.

you do see the irony in that post ?

Why can't you just admit you got it/expressed it wrong? None of us are all knowing. Genuine bit of advice not a dig. I think this place would be much easier at times if we'd all openly admit our limitations and errors.

looking through the useless GFS mist + UKMO - overnight is an upgrade with many more members moving energy SE at 168-192 period take this for example The GFS is just starting its journey to working it all out...

I think both is possible. Technical warming could be achieved on 26 Dec without that being the peak of the event. Given current blocking global pressure forecasts for next week it seems almost certain that we will have ongoing warmth thrown at the vortex right through December, and if the interaction of the next pacific cycle acts as expected then we have a maintained signal for heights over Scandy (ish) that will continue to perturb the vortex particularly if the next MJO phase is as strong as some plots are showing. Glosea may well have it right in seeing the peak of the event in January - but by that stage the vortex may already be in big trouble via a technical warming. All this thought process does is raise expectations for January still further....which I hope to goodness doesn't mean the mother of all let downs.....

With all due respect Crewe, you are adding caveats to each of your responses. Mild Decembers aren't a good omen for the rest of winter historically...becomes Very mild Decembers don't usually spell good news going forward. I'm not talking within 1C of average here becomes So out of the 6 years you've mentioned (out of over 200 years of reliable records) one is >2C above the mean December temperature. I know there's more infact, you've got very mild December, average January, cold February. there's even a cold January sandwiched between two very mild months. It depends what you criteria is. Infact 1977-78 is another the December was 6.1 I know Ian Brown has mentioned this before but even he restricted it to his post 1987 period. Anyway we'll leave it at that

.. Ta-.. Others have said worse